Ohtani to Dodgers for an ungodly amount of money

[Rob]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Since Bertz mentioned it I've done a little searching and seen a few mentions of the NPV calculation, so it could be the case. That said, it has to be a ton of money deferred for very, very long time to make a difference greater than, say, 5-8 million.

I saw something earlier mentioning "unprecedented" deferrals. That's certainly drawn my attention.

If this is a Bobby Bonilla situation, where Shohei is getting healthy paychecks well into his retirement, it could certainly make an impact.

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

They're not paying for just baseball skills, but revenue he'll bring into the team.  But that's a lot of money lol

That's my takeaway too.  They're paying $500M-something for Ohtani the player and another $100-200M for Ohtani the brand

[chopsx9]

I'm going to stick to my belief that these super nova type deals ever actually work out.  🖕

[17 Seconds]

sadness

 

[Stratos]

27 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

You could sign 100 Trey Mancini's for that amount of money!

100 Mancini's is -80 WAR haha

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Rob said:

I saw something earlier mentioning "unprecedented" deferrals. That's certainly drawn my attention.

If this is a Bobby Bonilla situation, where Shohei is getting healthy paychecks well into his retirement, it could certainly make an impact.

Bertz's quoted example illustrates that it has to be well beyond the Bonilla deal to be super impactful.  Like 80-90% of the contract deferred for a generation after the 10 year deal ends.

[Rob]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This is the Roster Resource guy for Fangraphs

So even outrageous deferrals only pull the AAV down by 10ish percent?

It only helps a tiny bit for luxury tax purposes. But for actual payroll under that hypothetical, he'd "only" cost $30M per year (plus luxury tax). That would help a lot with roster construction.

[Stratos]

Now Ohtani has enough money to buy the Dodgers

[s2obed]

I’m going to assume it was always about the money, him staying on the west coast, and Dodgers always contending. 

It’s a short flight to Japan. Probably stays in the same area in Cali. Dodgers also a consistent winner. 

[UMFan83]

Can imagine how ****** it must feel as a Jays fan today.  We somehow deluded ourselves (to some degree) into thinking that no noise from our camp somehow meant we were in it.  But the Jays had actual national baseball writers reporting he was en route to Toronto.  It would take me awhile to get over that if it happened to the Cubs, similar to "Wade to the Bulls is imminent" reporting in 2010.

[Tim]

4 minutes ago, s2obed said:

It’s a short flight to Japan. 

The Pacific Ocean is very large. It's still a very long flight. It's not really that different than flying from Chicago.

[17 Seconds]

 

[s2obed]

2 minutes ago, Tim said:

The Pacific Ocean is very large. It's still a very long flight. It's not really that different than flying from Chicago.

You’re right, never knew that. It’s wild that it takes about 4 hours from ORD to LAX but from ORD to Tokyo it’s 13 hours and about 12 from LAX to Tokyo. 

[Andy]

17 minutes ago, The20thK said:

Here’s to you Ohtani!!!

I hope your arm falls off! Lol

I think the Dodgers are strategically trying to implement at salary cap. There is no way to have a competitive league if one team is capable of paying one player more than other are able to pay entire their entire roster. 

Every owner is "able" to pay Ohtani that amount of money. Some may be able to do it at a larger profit margin, but they all can do it.

[s2obed]

Glad we can move on to the Cubs’ real offseason

[Derwood]

That contract just broke baseball

[UMFan83]

Ohtani now has a higher AAV than the payrolls of 8 different teams last year lol

[s2obed]

4 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

You know what sucks most? That I’m all like “well I still really believe in the farm.” Damn brainwashing goes deep lol 

If only we could produce studs like the Dodgers have in the last decade..

[soccer10k]

I don’t understand why the deferred money matters for the CBT. If he signs a 10 year deal for $700M, shouldn’t it just be $70M for the CBT each year? Someone explain this to me in English, please, or point me to an article that does it.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, s2obed said:

If only we could produce studs like the Dodgers have in the last decade..

Who are the “studs” they Dodgers produced the last decade? 

[s2obed]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Who are the “studs” they Dodgers produced the last decade? 

Seager, Smith, Buehler, Urías (had a crappy 23 but was a stud in 21/22), Outman, Kenley Jansen.

They didn’t draft Turner or Muncy but as soon as they became Dodgers they took off.

Don’t forget they may have just turned our own J-Hey around… That’s a pretty extensive list imo.

Edited December 9, 2023 by s2obed

[UMFan83]

3 minutes ago, The20thK said:

Baseball is broken

I said this on Twitter but I think the MLB has done a decent job of putting a system in place that allows the have nots to compete with the haves. Last year the Orioles, Rays, Marlins, Brewers, Twins and Diamondbacks all made the playoffs with lower half payroll teams. A couple of the big spending teams like the Dodgers and Braves didn’t win a playoff round while none of the top 3 payroll teams made the playoffs (Mets, Yankees, Padres). Furthermore the Dodgers spend ridiculous sums of money and make the playoffs every year but only won a title in the weird pandemic season. 

But…it is quite ridiculous when a team can sign player that makes more money than the 26 man roster of 1/4 of all baseball teams.  Really no way to cap the Dodgers or Mets or whoever from spending however much they want as the luxury tax isn’t enough of a deterrent for them even after increasing the penalties. The only step would be a salary cap but that’s never happening for a variety of reasons. 
 

[SOFNR]

Bummer. I can't even root for him on the Dodgers. They are gonna be hell to deal with for a long while. Back to Plan B or C or whatever Hoyer has cookin. He better have some trades up his sleeve.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, s2obed said:

Seager, Smith, Buehler, Urías (had a crappy 23 but was a stud in 21/22), Outman, Kenley Jansen.

They didn’t draft Turner or Muncy but as soon as they became Dodgers they took off.

That’s a pretty extensive list imo.

Honestly I was drawing a blank. That said, Cubs brought up Bryant, Schwarber, Steele, Alzolay the last decade. Of those guys the only useful ones for the Dodgers last year were Smith and Outman. I agree the Dodgers farm system has been better, but the Cubs are on the rise. 
 

I also agree with you on Muncy and J, Turner. Dodgers do have a way of picking guys up and turning them into assets. 

Edited December 9, 2023 by Rcal10

[Rob]

5 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

I don’t understand why the deferred money matters for the CBT. If he signs a 10 year deal for $700M, shouldn’t it just be $70M for the CBT each year? Someone explain this to me in English, please, or point me to an article that does it.

Imagine a contract that paid $1M for ten years, and had a deferred balloon payment of $690M in the year 2060.

That $690M in 2060 is a lot less valuable than it would be now. Inflation being what it is, $275M now has roughly the same buying power as getting $690M in 2060. Getting the money upfront thus has a huge advantage for the player.

So when contracts with large deferrals are signed, the CBT looks at the "net present value" of the contract. Not what the buying power will be later, but what is equates to now.