Ohtani to Dodgers for an ungodly amount of money

[CubbyBlue2008]

Maybe he’s going to Toronto to tell them in person that he’s a Cub lmao

Edited December 8, 2023 by CubbyBlue2008

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

But no team is going to trade a big price for Vlad at roughly 2/50 in arb salaries, and Vlad is objectively a better option than Horwitz, so the main benefit you get from trading Vlad is cutting his salary.  You might use that salary elsewhere instead of pocketing the savings under the auspices of paying for Ohtani, but the salary is the reason.

Vlad is not getting $50M in his last 2 years of arbitration. He'll probably be around $40M. And I guarantee a team would way overpay last years performance and bet on his bounce back.

[UMFan83]

11 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Didnt the Blue Jays also leak a little info about meeting with Ohtani? If he cared that much about keeping things completely secret he would pick the Cubs, because they havent said a damn thing.

It was leaked, I don't think they leaked it.  Their GM appeared on a Zoom call with a plain white background during the winter meetings and claimed he had a conflict that prevented him from being there.  Not their fault if the media did some digging from that and figured out the truth.  Or maybe it was stupid for them to even have a suspicious Zoom call and should have had someone at the meetings speak to the media (similar to Carter speaking for the Cubs the first day), but its different than brazenly telling everyone you met, what you did during the meeting etc.

I mean in reality the whole thing about staying quiet about meetings is stupid and even stranger if it affected the Dodgers' chances but I'm going to pretend its why they didn't get him anyways because its so much funnier.

Edited December 8, 2023 by UMFan83

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Even with his down year, Vladito projects as the 5th best hitter in baseball next year by Steamer.  They are not trading him to free up space for horsefeathering Spencer Horwitz lol

Vlad has been worth 3 WAR over the last 2 years at 1B. He's playing on reputation right now, not performance.

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, CubbyBlue2008 said:

Maybe he’s going to Toronto to tell them in person that he’s a Cub lmao

Jed is being so secretive about this that he had Ohtani fly to Toronto to take his Cubs physical and sign the contract so that everyone would think he's signing with the Blue Jays.  We're going to be sitting there on Opening Day wondering why the hell Ohtani decided to not sign with anyone when the Cubs Twitter account will release the lineup with Ohtani hitting 4th.

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Vlad is not getting $50M in his last 2 years of arbitration. He'll probably be around $40M. And I guarantee a team would way overpay last years performance and bet on his bounce back.

He's already projected at $20M for 2024, and rule of thumb is a ~50% raise each time through arb unless performance is pretty extreme in either direction.  That's sort of the trap we fell into with KB, he got top of the scale arb salaries throughout his entire time here because of his monster first three years.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Vlad is not getting $50M in his last 2 years of arbitration. He'll probably be around $40M. And I guarantee a team would way overpay last years performance and bet on his bounce back.

I misremembered his estimate being 22 for this year when it's about 20.5, so we can split the difference and call it around 45.  But that's a high enough price compared with his hackery at 1B that even if you're a bit optimistic about his return to form, it doesn't leave a ton of room for it to be worth a large trade price over two years.

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

He's already projected at $20M for 2024, and rule of thumb is a ~50% raise each time through arb unless performance is pretty extreme in either direction.  That's sort of the trap we fell into with KB, he got top of the scale arb salaries throughout his entire time here because of his monster first three years.

Kris Bryant was still producing. He was 4.7 WAR in 2019. Vlad has only produced 1 really good season, not 3.

Fangraphs did a study on arbitration raises a year or two ago and although there was never a decrease in arbitration from year to year, the previous years WAR directly correlated to their pay, so if they didn't produce, the raise was minimal. Look at Cody Bellinger for example.

[ToolDRT]

Leafs player:

this seems imminent. 

[Bertz]

Just now, Cuzi said:

Kris Bryant was still producing. He was 4.7 WAR in 2019. Vlad has only produced 1 really good season, not 3.

Fangraphs did a study on arbitration raises a year or two ago and although there was never a decrease in arbitration from year to year, the previous years WAR directly correlated to their pay, so if they didn't produce, the raise was minimal. Look at Cody Bellinger for example.

MLB Trade Rumors model, which is extremely accurate, has him getting a 40% raise even after his 1 WAR year last year.  That's how the system works.  Guys get substantial raises every year of the cycle barring more or less catastrophe.

[ToolDRT]

Copium. But ill take it!

 

 

[CubbyBlue2008]

11 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

Leafs player:

this seems imminent. 

He could just be replying to the momentum around the Jays.

[ToolDRT]

2 minutes ago, CubbyBlue2008 said:

He could just be replying to the momentum around the Jays.

Yeah, that’s true. There’s a lot of arrows seemingly pointing that way right now. But who knows for sure. 

[Brian707]

Maybe in a cost cutting move PTR sent Ohtani to Toronto for the physical due to the free healthcare. If he came here PTR would have to pay for it.  Did anyone check if any of the Chicago area Golden Corral's are closed for the evening meet and greet?

[CubinNY]

it's too quiet not to be true is a niece piece of pretzel logic. The silent dog method of sussing this thing out. 

[ToolDRT]

 

[LBiittner]

2 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

 

Ok, I'm proceeding with the assumption cubs are winners of the Ohtani sweepstakes.

What position in the batting order will Council put The Sho?

 

[JHBulls]

5 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

it's too quiet not to be true is a niece piece of pretzel logic. The silent dog method of sussing this thing out. 

The whole “Ohtani will hold it against teams that talk” thing has been blown way out of proportion. I truly doubt he is nope-ing out of signing for the Dodgers or Blue Jays because some stuff has leaked, unless he is a lunatic. 

[Cuzi]

57 minutes ago, Bertz said:

MLB Trade Rumors model, which is extremely accurate, has him getting a 40% raise even after his 1 WAR year last year.  That's how the system works.  Guys get substantial raises every year of the cycle barring more or less catastrophe.

What is your definition of "extremely accurate"?

MLBTR studied their own projections and they give themselves a 10% buffer in their "success rate." They are typically in that margin 55% of the time, peaking 1 year at 69%. Is that considered "extremely accurate"? Not only the 10%, when a standard margin of error is 3%, but also the roughly coin flip accuracy?

[Jason Ross]

https://www.si.com/mlb/cubs/news/cubs-reportedly-viewed-as-finalists-for-shohei-ohtani-jon9

 

There's not much there. But it's the faintest puff of smoke.

Edited December 8, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[s2obed]

It has been so quiet today reporter wise outside of that report that Ohtani is "reportedly" on his way to TOR.

[CubinNY]

14 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

What is your definition of "extremely accurate"?

MLBTR studied their own projections and they give themselves a 10% buffer in their "success rate." They are typically in that margin 55% of the time, peaking 1 year at 69%. Is that considered "extremely accurate"? Not only the 10%, when a standard margin of error is 3%, but also the roughly coin flip accuracy?

Coin flipping accuracy at nailing the bullseye is pretty good accuracy. It means you are around the target most of the time. I don't think it's realistic to expect them to get exact dollar figures correct. But honestly, I don't understand why people care what a guy makes. 

I want the Cubs to hit the bullseye in determining which guys to put together to win the most games. I don't care how much it costs, the individual costs, or who the players are for the most part. I want them to win. 

 

Edit: I mean it's fun to talk about in the abstract, but I'd be in favor of the Ricketts spending the most money to get the best players on a yearly basis. I don't care about value. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by CubinNY

[LBiittner]

32 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Ok, I'm proceeding with the assumption cubs are winners of the Ohtani sweepstakes.

What position in the batting order will Council put The Sho?

 

For me I might do the order:

1 Hoerner. 2 Swanson. 3 Ohtani. 4 Suzuki. 5 Hoskins. 6 Happ. 7 Chapman. 8 Gomes. 9 PCA

[Tryptamine]

Just now, LBiittner said:

For me I might do the order:

1 Hoerner. 2 Swanson. 3 Ohtani. 4 Suzuki. 5 Hoskins. 6 Happ. 7 Chapman. 8 Gomes. 9 PCA

You've got them adding about 90M in 2024 between Ohtani/Hoskins/Chapman before they even think about SP/RP. It would be glorious, but there's just no way.

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

You've got them adding about 90M in 2024 between Ohtani/Hoskins/Chapman before they even think about SP/RP. It would be glorious, but there's just no way.

It's more fun living in my world today