Buy or sell, where do you land? Let's talk hot stove.

[thawv]

51 minutes ago, Tim said:

Quick rant:

An MLB GM/President shouldn't need these last four games to tell him whether to buy or sell. He should understand what he has in the organization, the state of the competition, and so forth already. I get that there's a potential swing in the standings from those four games, but the depth of the hole we're in is the only factor that's going to change between now and 8/2. And even that's not likely to change radically.

I really hope he's aggressively pursuing a strategy behind the scenes and just not signaling to the media which way he's going. Because this looks like wishy-washy indecision to me.

The problem is that I don't think that Jed has an aggressive bone in his body.  That needs to change.

[JD94]

Apparently the Dodgers and Cardinals are discussing Arenado and that’s the only team he’d waive his NTC for. 

[Backtobanks]

 

1. Trade Stroman for the best deal you can get.

2. Trade for Eduardo Rodriguez to replace Stroman plus we have him at a reasonable price for the next 3 years.

3. Keep Bellinger and sign him to a 4–5-year contract.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

 

1. Trade Stroman for the best deal you can get.

2. Trade for Eduardo Rodriguez to replace Stroman plus we have him at a reasonable price for the next 3 years.

3. Keep Bellinger and sign him to a 4–5-year contract.

 

Rodriguez has an opt out after this year like Stroman.

[Tim]

18 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

 

1. Trade Stroman for the best deal you can get.

2. Trade for Eduardo Rodriguez to replace Stroman plus we have him at a reasonable price for the next 3 years.

3. Keep Bellinger and sign him to a 4–5-year contract.

 

I also don't think you're going to get Bellinger on a 4-5 year deal if he keeps hitting.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Tim said:

Quick rant:

An MLB GM/President shouldn't need these last four games to tell him whether to buy or sell. He should understand what he has in the organization, the state of the competition, and so forth already. I get that there's a potential swing in the standings from those four games, but the depth of the hole we're in is the only factor that's going to change between now and 8/2. And even that's not likely to change radically.

I really hope he's aggressively pursuing a strategy behind the scenes and just not signaling to the media which way he's going. Because this looks like wishy-washy indecision to me.

I disagree to an extent.  I get your point, but Swanson or Steele could suffer a season-ending injury tomorrow, which would significantly change the talent level on the team in 2023 and basically crap on their playoff chances.  Same with a significant injury on the Reds or Brewers.  They're on the very borderline of contention and will only sneak into the playoffs by a game or 2 if they manage to pull it off so I think a week of games does matter and gives them information to make a decision.  Everyone being healthy, I agree 4 games doesn't matter much, the talent level doesn't change.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

3 hours ago, morrisjon said:

Here's my question, how much value does just making the playoffs bring to a team? For Jordan's Bulls, losing to the Pistons was a valuable experience because they learned what it would take to beat a team like the Pistons. But I'm not sure that translates to MLB since we already play muti-game series and baseball is less about in-game adjustments. 

With some small moves and a little luck, sure we could make the playoffs but it would be at the expense of losing the value for Stroman, Bellinger, Leiter, etc. Is just making the playoffs worth that? 
 

If they don't place value on being in the playoffs, I don't even see the point of running a baseball team tbh.

 

Edited July 28, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[squally1313]

Yeah I can’t get behind the whole ‘well if they make it, who cares, they’re going to lose’ argument. They probably will! Guess who else probably will? Every other team in baseball. Any team going into playoffs as better than like…4/1 odds is a bad bet. 
 

and that’s totally ignoring all the outcomes in between. Apparently no one had fun watching the 2015 season. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There's this common kind of analysis that always bugs me and it's really prevalent among tanking sports fandoms.  It goes something like this.

"Take the value of a scenario i don't prefer, which is tiny, and call it zero.  Now take the value of a scenario I do prefer, which is also tiny, but call it something.  Something is obviously better than nothing, therefore it is obvious we must do the scenario I prefer."

Are the Cubs winning the world series this season? Probably not. Are any prospects we pick up this deadline going to be the difference between winning and not winning one in the future? Probably not.

 

 

[Tim]

I put this in another thread, but I'll expand on it here. 

1. Trade for Soto now
2. Sign Ohtani this offseason
3. Extend Bellinger
4. Sign one more SP (I do like the idea of signing a 24 year old Yamamoto)
5. Exercise the option on Gomes

I'd extend Soto right after the trade. Between him, Ohtani and Bellinger, that's very likely over a billion dollars in commitment, but it sets us up to be a great team for a long time. Yamamoto being the other starter may even allow us to stay on the first tier of salary cap violation. It would also be nice to add some more certainty in the bullpen than going the usual bargain basement shopping.

I'd see how open Soto would be to a shift to first base (and how well he could play there). I'd also have Morel commit to third base and nothing but third base. Assuming those worked out, we could have a lineup of something like this:

• 1B - Soto (L)
• 2B - Nico (R)
• DH - Ohtani (L)
• SS - Dansby (R)
• CF - Bellinger (L)
• 3B - Morel (R)
• LF - Happ (S)
• RF - Seiya (R)
• C - Gomes / Amaya (R)

That's one heck of a lineup.

The rotation would be something like:

• Ohtani
• Steele
• Taillon
• Yamamoto
• Smyly / Brown / Wesneski / Wicks

We just need Jed to put on his big boy pants and make it happen.

[Jfoley89]

It's a tough decision.  I could potentially live with dealing Bellinger if it got you a solid mlb ready piece for this year and bring up PCA. It's risky to try and thread that needle, but the wins keep driving that price tag up on any piece. 

 

[Outshined_One]

Just now, Jfoley89 said:

It's a tough decision.  I could potentially live with dealing Bellinger if it got you a solid mlb ready piece for this year and bring up PCA. It's risky to try and thread that needle, but the wins keep driving that price tag up on any piece. 

 

Welcome!

[Tim]

1 minute ago, Jfoley89 said:

It's a tough decision.  I could potentially live with dealing Bellinger if it got you a solid mlb ready piece for this year and bring up PCA. It's risky to try and thread that needle, but the wins keep driving that price tag up on any piece. 

 

I like my plan better.

[SOFNR]

I've offcially moved over to Team Buy.  My preferences ranked. 

1.  Team Buy.  Mostly be looking for cost controlled pieces that can help the team now and for the future. You've got a lot of prospect depth. You're going to be taking a risk but I think it's the perfect time for it. Avoid rentals for the most part. Maybe a couple small deals like a lottery ticket for a competent lefty bp guy or a Mancini replacement. Be willing to move some guys up from the farm early if they can help round out a competitive roster. 

2. Buy/Sell. Move Stroman. Keep Bellinger. Maybe be willing to listen on some bullpen arms. Use your farm depth to get yourself some pieces for now and the future.  Don't throw in the towel but emphasis on 2024. Get started now instead of trying to do it all in FA. 

3. Sell.  Sell Bellinger, Sell Stroman. Ship out any rental if you can get a solid piece back. The Ricketts deadline special

4. Stand PAT.  Gross. Don't do this. Pick a lane. This team deserves a direction. Quit trying to wade in mediocrity. 

I'm hoping for #1. It would be fun, and I definitely think they could still win this division with a few moves. They really should have put more effort into building a winner during the offseason but somehow these guys have managed to stay afloat. Reward them and give it a real shot.

 

Edited July 28, 2023 by SOFNR

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah I can’t get behind the whole ‘well if they make it, who cares, they’re going to lose’ argument. They probably will! Guess who else probably will? Every other team in baseball. Any team going into playoffs as better than like…4/1 odds is a bad bet.

Yeah agree.  The Phillies got to the World Series last year and had 87 wins and snuck in on the Wild Card.  In 2021 the Braves won the World Series and had 88 wins.

The best team usually doesn't win the WS, it's the team that plays the best that month, which could be any team that makes the playoffs.  If you're good enough to get into the playoffs you can win the WS, and if there's a decent chance you can get into the playoffs you take it because it's more valuable than a few prospects that might never even pan out.

[Jfoley89]

40 minutes ago, Tim said:

I like my plan better.

I do too. Let's call mine plan B

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

I put this in another thread, but I'll expand on it here. 

1. Trade for Soto now
2. Sign Ohtani this offseason
3. Extend Bellinger
4. Sign one more SP (I do like the idea of signing a 24 year old Yamamoto)
5. Exercise the option on Gomes

I'd extend Soto right after the trade. Between him, Ohtani and Bellinger, that's very likely over a billion dollars in commitment, but it sets us up to be a great team for a long time. Yamamoto being the other starter may even allow us to stay on the first tier of salary cap violation. It would also be nice to add some more certainty in the bullpen than going the usual bargain basement shopping.

I'd see how open Soto would be to a shift to first base (and how well he could play there). I'd also have Morel commit to third base and nothing but third base. Assuming those worked out, we could have a lineup of something like this:

• 1B - Soto (L)
• 2B - Nico (R)
• DH - Ohtani (L)
• SS - Dansby (R)
• CF - Bellinger (L)
• 3B - Morel (R)
• LF - Happ (S)
• RF - Seiya (R)
• C - Gomes / Amaya (R)

That's one heck of a lineup.

The rotation would be something like:

• Ohtani
• Steele
• Taillon
• Yamamoto
• Smyly / Brown / Wesneski / Wicks

We just need Jed to put on his big boy pants and make it happen.

They could sign either Soto or Ohtani but I doubt both.  If they signed a Stroman/Urias type this winter this payroll would be about $260 million.  They'd have to possibly not sign Bellinger or trade Happ or Suzuki, and Suzuki is doubtful because i'm sure they think his value will increase at some point.  Not sure Soto can play 1B either.

I'm still wary of Bellinger.  A guy having a huge season in their walk year after 3 straight off years makes me nervous, he's overperforming his xBA and xSLG by a ton, is having a career high BABIP, and his EV and hard hit% are bad, significantly lower than 2017-2019.

[Tim]

7 minutes ago, Stratos said:

They could sign either Soto or Ohtani but I doubt both.  If they signed a Stroman/Urias type this winter this payroll would be about $260 million.  They'd have to possibly not sign Bellinger or trade Happ or Suzuki, and Suzuki is doubtful because i'm sure they think his value will increase at some point.  Not sure Soto can play 1B either.

I'm still wary of Bellinger.  A guy having a huge season in their walk year after 3 straight off years makes me nervous, he's overperforming his xBA and xSLG by a ton, is having a career high BABIP, and his EV and hard hit% are bad, significantly lower than 2017-2019.

If I had to pick one of the line items to give up, it would be Bellinger. Assuming we could get Soto without giving up PCA, that is.

[chibears55]

7 hours ago, morrisjon said:

Here's my question, how much value does just making the playoffs bring to a team? For Jordan's Bulls, losing to the Pistons was a valuable experience because they learned what it would take to beat a team like the Pistons. But I'm not sure that translates to MLB since we already play muti-game series and baseball is less about in-game adjustments. 

With some small moves and a little luck, sure we could make the playoffs but it would be at the expense of losing the value for Stroman, Bellinger, Leiter, etc. Is just making the playoffs worth that? 
 

Given that the majority of this roster more then likely wont be on this team after this season or next  two, itll have very little affect.

[Derwood]

There are too many trade threads it's making me crazy

[Derwood]

Are we fooling ourselves on long term prospects of Bellinger? I was listening to some national coverage and the anchors made it sound like it was a foregone conclusion that Bellinger would not be back with the Cubs next year whether he's traded or not.

[JD94]

2 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Are we fooling ourselves on long term prospects of Bellinger? I was listening to some national coverage and the anchors made it sound like it was a foregone conclusion that Bellinger would not be back with the Cubs next year whether he's traded or not.

What? He will go to the highest bidder almost guaranteed. Doesn’t matter if it’s the Cubs, Yankees, or the Kansas City Royals. No way anybody can speak in absolutes either way. 

[Derwood]

12 minutes ago, JD94 said:

What? He will go to the highest bidder almost guaranteed. Doesn’t matter if it’s the Cubs, Yankees, or the Kansas City Royals. No way anybody can speak in absolutes either way. 

I think they probably meant "no way he's back on an extension or via his option". 

[Dfan25]

If the Cubs end up making moves , the thought of Morel for a SP with team control is interesting IMO.  

Edited July 29, 2023 by Dfan25

[UMFan83]

When the Cubs were still struggling it felt like the reports were suggesting Jed was looking for a reason to buy.  Now that the Cubs are red hot and climbed back into it, I'm seeing reports that the Cubs are on the fence between buying and selling and I just don't see selling as a direction is possible at this point.  I can understand like trading a Stroman for other pieces that can help this year, or I can understand doing nothing, but can you imagine the backlash from both fans and the players if they traded Stroman and Bellinger for prospects while the team is on a 9-1 run, has moved over .500 and are now only 3.5 games out of a playoff spot?  I suppose they can lose the next 3 and be 6.5 games out at the deadline, but even if they go like 1-2, selling would be a terrible look even if there's logic behind it imo.