6/21 - Cubs (Hendricks) vs Pirates (Hill): 11:35am, Marquee

[Tryptamine]

Mancini might be a really nice guy, but he absolutely sucks at basball in 2023.

[mul21]

Yeah, I'm ready for him to be fired into the sun.

[Tryptamine]

Either you play Mervis everyday or you go out and get a 1B that can post a .700+ OPS, it's not that hard to do.

[Derwood]

I thought Hendricks was toast so I'm happy to be wrong about that (at least for now)

[abuck1220]

mancini's "value" (lol) is eliminated when the lefty starter comes out of the game. he's so bad at 1b, he should have come out when hill did. he sucks so bad ross PH for him leading off the 8th with bellinger even with a lefty on the mound. not the best use of $14 mil.

[Irrelevant Dude]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Either you play Mervis everyday or you go out and get a 1B that can post a .700+ OPS, it's not that hard to do.

There is also Option C - Continue to ride Tauchman in CF and Bellinger at 1B.  There doesn't seem to be any reason to do anything else at this point unless there is another injury or Tauchman's performance falls off a cliff.

[Derwood]

I'm stuck with the Pirates broadcasters for these games, and they are one of those weird teams that has like 17 different broadcasters. They make the Cubs look reasonable.

[UMFan83]

The only thing you don't want to do in this situation is walk guys.  Merryweather went to 3 balls on the first hitter and then walked the next 2. 

Edited June 21, 2023 by UMFan83

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

The only thing you don't want to do in this situation is walk guys.  Merryweather went to 3 balls on the first hitter and then walked the next 2. 

Thankfully he's an unstoppable machine.

[CubinNY]

Noice. Now two days off and two in London. I wish I was going. 

[UMFan83]

Cubs sweep!  Unfortunately, the Reds also got their 11th straight win this afternoon so no more ground gained.  Good thing we got hot though otherwise we'd be firmly in the 'sell' camp at this point.

[squally1313]

Four games made up on the Brewers in the last 10 is pretty encouraging. The Reds offense looks like it has some teeth, but man that pitching is dire, especially with Greene on the IL.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=20&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=18&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=6,d

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Four games made up on the Brewers in the last 10 is pretty encouraging. The Reds offense looks like it has some teeth, but man that pitching is dire, especially with Greene on the IL.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=20&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=18&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=6,d

Yeah the schedule has been fairly kind too.  As of yesterday there were 6 teams who were 5+ games out of playoff contention.  The Reds have played those teams 22 times, compared to 10 for the Cubs and 15 for the Brewers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Huh. So this team could leave London with a .500 record.

[UMFan83]

8 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Four games made up on the Brewers in the last 10 is pretty encouraging. The Reds offense looks like it has some teeth, but man that pitching is dire, especially with Greene on the IL.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=20&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=18&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=6,d

They have to have figured something out during this run.  19-6 over 25 games and it's not just bad teams, they took 3 of 3 from the Cubs, 2 of 3 from Boston, 2 of 3 from LAD, and 3 of 3 from Houston during this span.

Obviously they aren't going to win 80% of their games going forward but with the deadline coming up I wouldn't be surprised if they upgraded their pitcher and ended up winning the division.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

They have to have figured something out during this run.  19-6 over 25 games and it's not just bad teams, they took 3 of 3 from the Cubs, 2 of 3 from Boston, 2 of 3 from LAD, and 3 of 3 from Houston during this span.

Obviously they aren't going to win 80% of their games going forward but with the deadline coming up I wouldn't be surprised if they upgraded their pitcher and ended up winning the division.

In June (entering today) they are 13th in wRC+ and 22nd in ERA(with even worse FIP/xFIP).  Or more simply, they're 14-6 this month with a +8 run differential, which is really hard to do!  Maybe they won't have such an immediate and damaging nosedive as Pittsburgh losing 9 straight to division opponents, but I don't see a lot of sign that they're on the upswing compared to riding a hot streak that doesn't look very sustainable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

In June (entering today) they are 13th in wRC+ and 22nd in ERA(with even worse FIP/xFIP).  Or more simply, they're 14-6 this month with a +8 run differential, which is really hard to do!  Maybe they won't have such an immediate and damaging nosedive as Pittsburgh losing 9 straight to division opponents, but I don't see a lot of sign that they're on the upswing compared to riding a hot streak that doesn't look very sustainable.

I tend to agree with this, though the reality of the NL Central is that it's not going to take much to win the division and only the division winner will make the postseason.

[squally1313]

Yeah the biggest advantage the Reds have over us right now is the 3.5 game lead already baked into the standings. 

[UMFan83]

10 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I tend to agree with this, though the reality of the NL Central is that it's not going to take much to win the division and only the division winner will make the postseason.

The Reds have been criticized for spending the last couple of years, but they've been able to operate at a payroll much higher than where they are at now.  They still have a pretty good farm system even with recent graduations.  What this run could do is turn them into buyers at the deadline.   Not sure if they'll go crazy, but they'll be able to fortify the pitching at least somewhat.

[Derwood]

50 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Cubs sweep!  Unfortunately, the Reds also got their 11th straight win this afternoon so no more ground gained.  Good thing we got hot though otherwise we'd be firmly in the 'sell' camp at this point.

 

11 straight wins and still have a -14 RD

[Derwood]

Pirates started out 21-8. Recently, after a 6 game win streak, they have gone 2-12.

Streaky team is streaky

[CubUgly]

17 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

There is also Option C - Continue to ride Tauchman in CF a

He may end up being the next Schwindell, but yeah - ride that hot streak till it's done.

[mul21]

1 hour ago, CubUgly said:

He may end up being the next Schwindell, but yeah - ride that hot streak till it's done.

He's got enough of a history that I don't think this is smoke and mirrors.  He's not actually this good, but he's certainly capable of being a useful player for more than a hot month.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

He's Ortega redux, post-prime but well rounded and good enough to have a run of good form at the MLB level that elevates from bench/AAAA bat to 2nd division starter for a while.  Him turning on a ball for a HR in this series is a really good sign, because he clearly has a discerning eye but he wasn't really driving the ball so I without that change I'd be afraid pitchers eventually try(and succeed) at knocking the bat out of his hands.