Midseason Updates to Prospect Rankings

[Tim]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

I just don't get being this down on Alcantara. Even if we ignore that he clearly adjusted to A+ after a horrific start, his overall numbers put him at a 118 wRC+, in a season where he turned 21 less than a month ago while playing a premium defensive position. 

From a tools perspective, he may be the highest upside we have in the system. He has age on his side, he's been performing other than during his first exposure to cold weather, he plays good defense in CF...there's an awful lot to like. I'd have him in our top 3-4 very comfortably. How I order him, Shaw & Horton varies by day.

[Post Count Padder]

I know he hasn't had the best season but did Christian Hernandez die? Not in the top 30?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

13. PCA 
18. Horton
90. Shaw

The only pitchers BA has ranked ahead of Horton are Skenes and Gavin Williams (who is 1 big league out from graduating).

[Outshined_One]

23 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

I know he hasn't had the best season but did Christian Hernandez die? Not in the top 30?

He's not making contact and not showing any in-game power at the plate.

I'll grant that he's young and in a pitcher-friendly environment, but he's on a downward trajectory at the moment.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pipeline released their updated midseason top 30:

1, PCA
2. Horton
3. Caissie
4. Alcántara
5. Brown
6. Shaw
7. Ballesteros
8. Ferris
9. Triantos
10. Wicks
11. Rojas
12. Arias
13. Mervis
14. Canario
15. Palencia
16. Gray
17. Derniche Valdez
18. McGeary
19. Murray Jr
20. Davis
21. Cristian Hernández
22. Vázquez
23. Rivera
24. Kilian
25. Wiggins
26. Luke Little
27. Hodge
28. Aliendo
29. K. Franklin
30. McCullough

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pipeline updated their top 100. The Cubs have 5 top 100 prospects and Shaw isn’t even one of them:

[Tim]

13 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Pipeline released their updated midseason top 30:

1, PCA
2. Horton
3. Caissie
4. Alcántara
5. Brown
6. Shaw
7. Ballesteros
8. Ferris
9. Triantos
10. Wicks
11. Rojas
12. Arias
13. Mervis
14. Canario
15. Palencia
16. Gray
17. Derniche Valdez
18. McGeary
19. Murray Jr
20. Davis
21. Cristian Hernández
22. Vázquez
23. Rivera
24. Kilian
25. Wiggins
26. Luke Little
27. Hodge
28. Aliendo
29. K. Franklin
30. McCullough

I like it - probably the best of the national updates that I've seen

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CubinNY]

14 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Pipeline released their updated midseason top 30:

1, PCA
2. Horton
3. Caissie
4. Alcántara
5. Brown
6. Shaw
7. Ballesteros
8. Ferris
9. Triantos
10. Wicks
11. Rojas
12. Arias
13. Mervis
14. Canario
15. Palencia
16. Gray
17. Derniche Valdez
18. McGeary
19. Murray Jr
20. Davis
21. Cristian Hernández
22. Vázquez
23. Rivera
24. Kilian
25. Wiggins
26. Luke Little
27. Hodge
28. Aliendo
29. K. Franklin
30. McCullough

That looks about right. Maybe Wicks a little higher, Brown a little lower. Not sure how Wiggins gets into the top 25. 

[craig]

Thanks for lists.  Quick thoughts:

1. Surprising to me is how Triantos stays so high in so many lists.  Low ISO with DH-like defense, seems like he should be more ~20 than top 12.  
2. NY, I think Pipeline has Wiggins too low, not too high.  They put Wiggins AFTER Rivera, even though Wiggins was drafted a round ahead, and Wiggins got twice the money, and the Cubs did subsequent drafting to accommodate Wiggins overslot.  Obviously lots of injured wildmen never work.  But I'd give a more credence to the Cubs valuation than Pipeline's..  I admit I'm something of a ceiling guy, so I appreciate Kantro's TORP ceiling valuation.  
3. Padder, I'm pretty OK with down-ranking Cristian.  Yes, he seemed promising and projectible when he was 14, and the door hasn't shut yet.  But no contact, no power, no progress, and sub-par middle-infield defense makes him a longish shot.  Surprised Pipeline still has him as high as 21.
4. Interesting that McGeary is top-30 in both lists, and top 20 in Pipeline.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On 7/26/2023 at 9:08 AM, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

So per FG, the Cubs actually had the best farm system before the draft, fell to third after the draft and bumped to second after the trade deadline.

[Cubs420psd]

On 8/9/2023 at 5:46 PM, Post Count Padder said:

I know he hasn't had the best season but did Christian Hernandez die? Not in the top 30?

A .601 OPS will do that to a man.

 

 

[Cubs420psd]

On 8/10/2023 at 8:08 PM, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Pipeline released their updated midseason top 30:

1, PCA
2. Horton
3. Caissie
4. Alcántara
5. Brown
6. Shaw
7. Ballesteros
8. Ferris
9. Triantos
10. Wicks
11. Rojas
12. Arias
13. Mervis
14. Canario
15. Palencia
16. Gray
17. Derniche Valdez
18. McGeary
19. Murray Jr
20. Davis
21. Cristian Hernández
22. Vázquez
23. Rivera
24. Kilian
25. Wiggins
26. Luke Little
27. Hodge
28. Aliendo
29. K. Franklin
30. McCullough

Few thoughts.

 

-What a fall for Hodge. If I remember correctly he was on a few preseason top 10 Cubs prospect lists. To me he's got to be the most disappointing Cubs prospect this year.

 

-The Cubs 2020 draft was hilariously bad. Only one guy from that draft is in their top 30 and that was their fourth round pick. Absolutely brutal. The first three picks of that draft were Howard, Carraway and Nwogu. I can't imagine a worse sequence of picks.

[We Got The Whole 9]

PCA is gonna hit for a lot of power. Can't wait to see him in Wrigley next year.

[Tim]

10 hours ago, Cubs420psd said:

-What a fall for Hodge. If I remember correctly he was on a few preseason top 10 Cubs prospect lists. To me he's got to be the most disappointing Cubs prospect this year.

I've got to go with Christian or Brennen as the most disappointing this year. Hodge wasn't in many top 10's that I recall. 

[Jason Ross]

Hodge wasn't really a top-10 guy.  That said, I said he was my pick for breakout arm of the season...sadly it hasn't happened.  "Sometimes you're the pigeon, sometimes you're the statue", this time, statue.  Still think there's solid hope for him as an MLB arm, but he's got some stuff he's got to work on and clean up to get there.  Setback season for him.

[Jason Ross]

11 hours ago, Cubs420psd said:

-The Cubs 2020 draft was hilariously bad. Only one guy from that draft is in their top 30 and that was their fourth round pick. Absolutely brutal. The first three picks of that draft were Howard, Carraway and Nwogu. I can't imagine a worse sequence of picks.

The 2020 draft is a weird one for the Cubs and while it's really easy to blame them, I don't think I do.  Howard never really got much of a chance before a devastating hip injury that's really sucked a lot of his explosiveness (and while his first season wasn't great, there was some positive developments leading up to the injury last year).  I'm not sure that's one to blame.  I know a lot of people didn't like the pick, but a lot of people didn't like Cade Horton, either, so I think we have to be real about taking our personal feelings out.  The Cubs liked Howard and I'm not sure he ever got a chance to show why. 

Carraway?  Yeah that one sucks.  Nwogu was a 3rd round pick, you can't expect much.  And they did all of this without a season to evaluate players and with extremely limited scouting as the Cubs and every other team slashed the hell out of scouting budgets.  It was Kantrovitz's first draft with the Cubs.  That is such a hard task and entirely unprecedented.  I really cannot imagine a harder draft to nail.

On the other hand, the Cubs successfully both nabbed PCA and Caissie from other organizations before they ever did anything (6 games for PCA, 0 for Caissie) once they had the scouting budget back and have done a great job building those guys up and both were 2020 draftees.  They also found Luke Little in the 4th who looks like he'll at least make an MLB debut, and Matt Mervis via UDFA. Scott Kobos is another one who could make MLB appearances as an UDFA, and who knows, when Ben Leeper returns from injuries he could find his way into an MLB bullpen.  

All in all, 2020 was really good for the Cubs, they just didn't hit on their  top picks.  Weird draft to evaluate all around all things considered.  Overall, I chalk it up to something impossible to blame anyone for.  

Edited August 13, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[CaliforniaRaisin]

21 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Hodge wasn't really a top-10 guy.  That said, I said he was my pick for breakout arm of the season...sadly it hasn't happened.  "Sometimes you're the pigeon, sometimes you're the statue", this time, statue.  Still think there's solid hope for him as an MLB arm, but he's got some stuff he's got to work on and clean up to get there.  Setback season for him.

I’m annoyed the Cubs moved Hodge to the pen so quickly. I understand he’s Rule 5 eligible in the offseason so they probably wanted to see him in the pen sooner than later but he didn’t have much high-A time before starting this year at AA and his ERA this year was especially marred by two blow-up innings. Just feels like they pulled the plug on him starting too soon.

[Jason Ross]

5 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

I’m annoyed the Cubs moved Hodge to the pen so quickly. I understand he’s Rule 5 eligible in the offseason so they probably wanted to see him in the pen sooner than later but he didn’t have much high-A time before starting this year at AA and his ERA this year was especially marred by two blow-up innings. Just feels like they pulled the plug on him starting too soon.

Yeah, I was bummed to see them move him so quickly too.  He closed last season like a bat out of hell.  The Cubs have generally done a great job with identifying pitching, so I'm not sure why the quick plug there.  Felt weird.  They're usually pretty patient.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pipeline updated their top farm rankings and the Cubs are 4th, behind the Orioles, Pirates and Brewers (and the Reds are right behind the Cubs at 5th).

Quote

4. Chicago Cubs
2023 preseason rank: 12
2022 midseason rank: 10
2022 preseason rank: 18
2021 midseason rank: 18

Top 100 prospects: Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF (No. 12); Cade Horton, RHP (No. 30); Owen Caissie, OF (No. 68); Kevin Alcántara, OF (No. 76); Ben Brown, RHP (No. 91)

The Cubs' system is stronger than it has been since 2015 and much better equipped to produce pitching than it was eight years ago. Horton, Brown and Jordan Wicks are close to taking the mound at Wrigley Field, and Jackson Ferris will need more time but comes with a high ceiling. There's no shortage of position players on the way to Chicago, including the best defender (Crow-Armstrong) and power hitter (Caissie) in the Minors. Crow-Armstrong, Caissie, Alcántara and Brown all joined the organization via trades.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1691833852530925948?s=46&t=W37ISIrjUHdGm-Y3K3j6Aw
 

Kiley updated his midseason top 50 too: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38197232/kiley-mcdaniel-mlb-top-50-prospects-midseason-update-jackson-holliday

15. PCA - 55 FV
22. Horton - 55 FV

Brown and Caissie were amongst the 30 others of note after the top 50.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

4 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1691833852530925948?s=46&t=W37ISIrjUHdGm-Y3K3j6Aw
 

Kiley updated his midseason top 50 too: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38197232/kiley-mcdaniel-mlb-top-50-prospects-midseason-update-jackson-holliday

15. PCA - 55 FV
22. Horton - 55 FV

Brown and Caissie were amongst the 30 others of note after the top 50.

The Kiley blurb for Horton is especially fun:

Quote

15. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs

Age: 21 Level: Double-A

Like some of the players above, PCA still chases a bit too much, but he has the rest of the package you're looking for in an elite prospect. He has solid bat-to-ball ability, above average power potential, plus speed and plus defense in center field.

Quote

22. Cade Horton, RHP, Chicago Cubs

Age: 22 Level: Double-A

Horton is arguably the biggest riser of players in this top 50 from this past spring. He was a somewhat surprising seventh overall pick last summer because of his short track record post-Tommy John surgery at Oklahoma, but there were clear indicators of upside. I sent around a list with him ranked in the 30s, and almost everyone who saw it said he needed to be higher. Horton has a plus fastball, slider and curveball -- with strikeout rates to match -- and he has surprised people with how well he's pitched this season. He could take the mantle of top pitching prospect in baseball if Skenes graduates before he does.

 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

11 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

The Kiley blurb for Horton is especially fun:

 

Can we get a ruling on whether this makes him an elite pitching prospect?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1692621449834479672?s=20

Palencia graduates and Christian Franklin joins the Pipeline Cubs Top 30.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Kiley McDaniel ranked the Cubs’ farm 2nd today.

Midseason farm ranks:

BA: 6
ESPN: 2
FanGraphs: 2
MLB Pipeline: 4