Midseason Updates to Prospect Rankings

[CaliforniaRaisin]

15. PCA 

68. Cade Horton

75. Kevin Alcántara

Davis dropped out

[Hrubes20]

Hmm. Still not buying Ben Brown stock for some reason at mlb.com. 

[CubinNY]

12 hours ago, Hrubes20 said:

Hmm. Still not buying Ben Brown stock for some reason at mlb.com. 

Seems like a pretty glaring omission. Probably related to draft status. 

Edited May 15, 2023 by CubinNY

[CaliforniaRaisin]

FanGraphs updated their top 118:

29. Pete Crow-Armstrong
75. Kevin Alcántara
87. Ben Brown
91. Hayden Wesneski (who has graduated)
108. Cristian Hernández 

[Hrubes20]

2 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

FanGraphs updated their top 118:

29. Pete Crow-Armstrong
75. Kevin Alcántara
87. Ben Brown
91. Hayden Wesneski (who has graduated)
108. Cristian Hernández 

Just swap in Horton or Wicks for Wesneski and call it good.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

39. PCA

Three other Cubs are 50 FVs (top 100 prospects) in two different categories that missed the top 50:

Late Cuts (50 FV) (Kiley called these his toughest cuts from the top 50):

Jordan Wicks

Risers: 50 FV now, 45 FV or lower preseason:

Moisés Ballesteros
Ben Brown

[CaliforniaRaisin]

16. PCA
73. Alcántara
89. Horton
100. Brown

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Is it wrong that I believe this is the coredation Hoyer should break up at the TDL? 

I do like Brown and there’s lots of other pitching to trade

There is like an 85% chance that they are not going to be buying at the deadline. 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’d flip this. Even beyond da analytiks/numbahs suggesting the ML club is actually pretty good or at least promising, they’re running out of room at the prospecting inn with a draft sandwiched btw two IFA classes. It’s either trades or mass cuts coming and for sure trades are the more Future focused and efficient option 

Honest questions how often are really good prospects traded for other prospects? How often are teams that are out of contention trading prospects for prospects that are going to add value? 
 

I know they might be having a 40 man crunch, but I don’t know how other team’s handle that situation who are not looking to buy MLB players 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't think prospect consolidation is a goal of the deadline, but the composition of the roster doesn't really lend itself to people's mental image of 'selling'.  Last year the only players actually traded were relievers, and this year's rental relievers are untradeable.  Otherwise you have two 'expiring' deals in Bellinger and Stroman, in which Bellinger probably has a lot in common with Contreras where it's an uphill battle to get superior value to the draft capital from his QO.  And Stroman is loudly asking to stay, while they have a solid position player core locked up and money to spend.  What's most likely to me is that they neither give nor take rentals, but make a trade to improve in 2024.  That could look like the Effross/Wesneski trade (maybe someone really likes Hughes?), but more likely it's taking on guys getting too expensive for their current teams with team control beyond 2023.  Now's the time for the next generation Aramis trade, but if they aren't in the thick of the wild card chase you don't need to have the Lofton part.

[sneakypower]

kinda interesting how Jordan Walker is #1 overall prospect in some publications primarily on the strength of having been 28% better than lg. average offensively at AA at 20yo but Caissie being 50% better than lg. average at AA at 20yo doesn't warrant much consideration as even top-100

(yes, i know this is not a perfectly summarized characterization)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, sneakypower said:

kinda interesting how Jordan Walker is #1 overall prospect in some publications primarily on the strength of having been 28% better than lg. average offensively at AA at 20yo but Caissie being 50% better than lg. average at AA at 20yo doesn't warrant much consideration as even top-100

(yes, i know this is not a perfectly summarized characterization)

I did chuckle at Walker getting demoted because he wasn't quite MLB ready with the bat or glove, struggling at AAA(which he continues to do with a 91 wRC+), and *then* getting bumped up to #1 overall by at least one source.

[sneakypower]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I did chuckle at Walker getting demoted because he wasn't quite MLB ready with the bat or glove, struggling at AAA(which he continues to do with a 91 wRC+), and *then* getting bumped up to #1 overall by at least one source.

right, realistically he's probably somewhere between Nick Castellanos & JD Martinez and apparently some would take that over Elly de la Tatis Jr. or whatever behemoth Holliday is looking likely to be

[muntjack]

Caissie's rep is obviously hampered by the K%.  The power is 80 and its already in-game at 20 yrs old. That's bonkers.  

Edit: maybe not 80, but.....

Edited June 1, 2023 by muntjack

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On 5/14/2023 at 8:29 PM, Hrubes20 said:

Hmm. Still not buying Ben Brown stock for some reason at mlb.com. 

13. PCA
65. Horton
72. Alcántara
100. Brown

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA had a June update and is turning quite reactionary. Alcántara fell off after 200 South Bend PAs.

18. PCA

67. Horton

68. brown

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't think it's very reactionary to drop a guy from the back half of the top 100 when he puts up a .600 OPS for 2 months.  There's no rule that he can't be moved back in and falling on his face(as opposed to merely being okay or marginally worse than he was at Myrtle) is damaging to his trajectory.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

14. PCA
60. Horton  
89. Alcántara
97. Brown

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA updated their midseason Cubs top 30:

1. PCA
2. Horton
3. Brown
4. Mervis
5. Ferris
6. Amaya.
7. Wicks
8. Caissie
9. Davis
10. Alcántara  
11, Kilian
12. Canario
13. Aliendo
14. Triantos
15. Ballesteros
16. Herz
17. Made
18. Palencia.
19. L. Little   
20. Franklin
21. C. Hernández  
22. Hill (lol)
23. Murray    
24. Sanders  
25. Hodge    
26. Rojas  
27. Strumpf  
28. Devers   
29. P. Ramírez    
30. McGeary

Their offseason list can be found here (4th post on this page): 

 

[Tryptamine]

20 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

BA updated their midseason Cubs top 30:

1. PCA
2. Horton
3. Brown
4. Mervis
5. Ferris
6. Amaya.
7. Wicks
8. Caissie
9. Davis
10. Alcántara  
11, Kilian
12. Canario
13. Aliendo
14. Triantos
15. Ballesteros
16. Herz
17. Made
18. Palencia.
19. L. Little   
20. Franklin
21. C. Hernández  
22. Hill (lol)
23. Murray    
24. Sanders  
25. Hodge    
26. Rojas  
27. Strumpf  
28. Devers   
29. P. Ramírez    
30. McGeary

Their offseason list can be found here (4th post on this page): 

 

Hernandez from top 100 to not even in the Cub top 20, ouch.

[Hrubes20]

12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Hernandez from top 100 to not even in the Cub top 20, ouch.

Shine is really coming off the kid.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

To be fair, he should never have been a top 100 prospect as a 16-year old.

[sneakypower]

always funny to consider we have a 300/400/500 hitter in AAA that can deadlift a school bus who never gets a single mention as an actual prospect even in a painfully mediocre farm system

[CaliforniaRaisin]

PCA 10, Horton 50, Brown 77, Alcántara fell from 68 to out.

Everyone will jump up one spot next week when Eury Pérez graduates. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Greg Z’s midseason list: