It's that time. How many wins?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Okay, you know the drill. How many games will the Cubs win in 2023 and why is everyone else wrong?

[Rex Buckingham]

I picked 71-75 as I just don't believe in the lineup and have questions about the starting pitching.  I'd love to be wrong, and I feel like this team is set up in a way that leaves a wide range of possibilities.  Is Bellinger a 110 OPS+ guy? Which position prospects come up and make noise?  Is Rios going to hit?  Can Happ turn some doubles into dongs?  Will Swanson hit 25+ HRs?  Can Nico stay healthy?  Will we get a positive offensive contribution from Catcher or will it be a black hole?

[David]

I went with 86-90.  I think the pitching and defense (especially the dudes up the middle) are going to get them off to a good start. The level of defense that can be really impactful.  One of the biggets strengths of the 2016 team was the insanely good defense.  This lineup looks to me like it's on that level (IN TERMS OF DEFENSE).

Some surprise contributions from one of the rookies (Davis/Mervis/??).  I expect a pretty big year out of Suzuki, which is probably the biggest thing for me.  I'm encouraged about some aspects of Bellinger's spring, especially as it has gone on. 

Hopefully some deadline additions of worth.

Will be tough to contend for a wild card with the teams in the east and west, so hopefully the Cardinals can run into some bad luck.

Edited March 29, 2023 by David

[Hairyducked Idiot]

75.  At first I read only cubs fans posts and it seemed like wow, our pitching must be pretty good.  Then I read all the preseason projections from neutral places and nobody else seems to think our pitching is even average.

 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

92 just because

[UMFan83]

They won 74 last year and probably improved their offense and pitching just not by a ton. I have them at 78 or so but hold out hope that the defense, pitching and contact strategy makes them much better than the sum of their parts somehow. 
 

the difficulty with comparing last years win total is that this year we have 10-12 less games against the Pirates and Reds and several of those games will be replaced by good teams. 

[SouthSideRyan]

Except for the classic "we gave X # of ABs to bad players last year and somehow won't do that this year", and "we'll be totally healthy", I don't see why I should think this team will be any good. They stinks last year, and probably stinks again. 76-80.

[Duke Silver]

77 wins. Offense is doo-doo. I do think the starting pitching will surpass expectations. Taillon will be a revelation with the sweeper, and Wesneski proves to be the first shrewd addition in about 7 years. The offense will go in the tank. Bold prediction is that Bellinger has the highest WAR among position players, but that won't necessarily be a good thing. Bullpen will be ugly too, but there will be a glimmer of hope as Jeremiah Estrada eventually establishes himself as a dominant future closer-type.

[UMFan83]

Just now, Duke Silver said:

77 wins. Offense is doo-doo. I do think the starting pitching will surpass expectations. Taillon will be a revelation with the sweeper, and Wesneski proves to be the first shrewd addition in about 7 years. The offense will go in the tank. Bold prediction is that Bellinger has the highest WAR among position players, but that won't necessarily be a good thing. Bullpen will be ugly too, but there will be a glimmer of hope as Jeremiah Estrada eventually establishes himself as a dominant future closer-type.

Man it’s still so weird to see Duke Silver, THE Duke Silver, discussing guys like Wesneski and not like Jon Lester. 
 

Anyways for Wesneski, make sure to factor into your projections the Cubs have a road trip to Toronto. Are they still keeping out the unvaccinated?

[David]

7 minutes ago, Duke Silver said:

77 wins. Offense is doo-doo. I do think the starting pitching will surpass expectations. Taillon will be a revelation with the sweeper, and Wesneski proves to be the first shrewd addition in about 7 years. The offense will go in the tank. Bold prediction is that Bellinger has the highest WAR among position players, but that won't necessarily be a good thing. Bullpen will be ugly too, but there will be a glimmer of hope as Jeremiah Estrada eventually establishes himself as a dominant future closer-type.

Not a fan of Seiya?

[Bertz]

81 - 85. 

I think it's very easy to take the over on the projected production from the pitching staff.  The pitch modeling section at Pitchingbot/Fangraphs for instance thinks all five of our starters legit earned sub-4 ERAs last year.  And the team's earned a legit benefit of the doubt on the reliever front.  That said they project to be the #21 pitching staff, so you can comfortably hit the over and still not be especially good.

I also think the depth on the position player side is not given enough value by the projection systems.  It doesnt just raise the floor but the ceiling.  Take 1B for instance.  One of Hosmer/Smyly/Mervis/Rios is likely to hit their 70th+ percentile projections and be a legit starting caliber 1B.  It takes some time to evaluate which of those guys that's happening to, but even still it does ultimately lead to additional wins IMO.

The problem is that the positives above are worth, what, maybe 5 wins tops?  If the projections are saying something like 78-80, it's really hard to argue north of 83ish without getting real homer-y.  Jed really needed to make a big trade this winter.  If we had e.g. Trevor Rogers instead of Drew Smyly, we'd also have been able to afford upgrading Barnhart or Hosmer to Christian Vazquez or a Brandon Belt.  That sort of twofer upgrade would have more affirmatively gotten us into being favorites for one of the WC spots IMO.

[jersey cubs fan]

It seemed like they actually went out and invested in the team but then you look at the roster and realize they lost their best hitter, bring back some highly volatile guys that all have major injury issues. They brought in one star who’s only kind of a star. They don’t have a 3B, 1B or CF. The pitching staff seems competent, but severely lacking in upside. I believe this team was designed to play a lot of 3-2 games and trick fans into thinking they still have a chance in August. The perfect 79 win team. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

76-80 is definitely the most plausible range, but I think it is more likely they come in over than under.  If a few things break right, I could see them hovering around the periphery of the Wild Card picture and finishing a few games above .500.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

84.  They've upgraded on last year's team with the big signings and the farm system is ready to backstop depth in a way they weren't last year.  I'd normally say 81-82 but I'm giving them a bump since they won't sell in July and they're set up to benefit from run environment changes more than the average team.

[Tim]

90

screw you guys.

It's opening day. I'm optimistic. sue me

[Tim]

still no swear filter, I see.

[SouthSideRyan]

9 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

84.  They've upgraded on last year's team with the big signings and the farm system is ready to backstop depth in a way they weren't last year.  I'd normally say 81-82 but I'm giving them a bump since they won't sell in July and they're set up to benefit from run environment changes more than the average team.

Are they not selling because they’ll be in the playoff race or did I miss them saying as much?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

15 minutes ago, SouthSideRyan said:

Are they not selling because they’ll be in the playoff race or did I miss them saying as much?

The former.  Also, the last two deadlines has shown there isn't a massive haul to be had in selling guys off in the current era, so this is mostly a 'the pen isn't going to be stripped for parts' statement than it is about Happ or Bellinger.

[CubinNY]

11 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

75.  At first I read only cubs fans posts and it seemed like wow, our pitching must be pretty good.  Then I read all the preseason projections from neutral places and nobody else seems to think our pitching is even average.

 

The starting pitching is going to be roughed up. How much stress it puts on the bullpen is going to be a big factor on their overall record. This is a team that is relying on pitching to contact and good defense. They are not going to consistently score a lot of runs.

[Outshined_One]

86 wins.  I'm willing to delve into my inner meatball and think that our pitching will be substantially upgraded this season from last year, plus the defensive upgrades and rule changes will benefit the Cubs in the early months of the season.  The offense will still be problematic, but I think the team will be in contention at the deadline when they can make some moves to help contend for a Wild Card spot.

[jersey cubs fan]

1 hour ago, SouthSideRyan said:

Are they not selling because they’ll be in the playoff race or did I miss them saying as much?

They are desperate to stop the bleeding with fan support. Jed has said the acquisitions they made were as much about proving they aren’t hording cash as for baseball purposes. 

[WrigleyField 22]

I said 76-80 which is admittedly a bit like throwing a dart blindfolded for me. But I'm in a "prove it" mindset. And if they do prove it I'll have to figure out how to *creatively* stream games on marquee

[WrigleyField 22]

7 hours ago, Tim said:

still no swear filter, I see.

Horsefeathers it you have to pull in Fred energy and type it out yourself. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

horsefeathers that, I had horsefeathers filtered

[BigbadB]

I went with 86-90, with emphasis on 86. I think they are better than a .500 team.