2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[jersey cubs fan]

78 wins and a bad offense. This is going to be one miserable team to watch.

I'll go with 85-87 wins.

 

Run prevention and overall depth will be enough to boost a slightly below average to average offense.

 

Yeah I think this is about right. The team is not going to bottom out, there's just way too much depth to let that happen. But at the same time, that depth cuts the other way a bit. It's going to take some time to iterate through and find the best version of this team. If Ross and Jed mostly nail it coming out of ST, the team can win 90+ games, but realistically there's going to be missteps and the team is going to be in the mix for the latter two wildcard spots.

 

I do think it's weird that there's this notion that the position player group will be boring? They're likely to be top 5 in steals and defense and top 10 in dongs. This isn't some group of slap hitters or vintage Oakland teams that walk to the point of being passive. The starting pitching group, even if effective, is likely to be pretty blasé, but the position player group is extremely watchable.

1B, C, CF, 3B are all completely bleh. The best players are fine, but not great. The middle infield gets their value from not being awful hitters at positions with a lot of awful hitters. Nico and Happ either can’t stay healthy or can’t avoid massive slumps.

 

When things are going well this will be a fun lineup, but over the course of a full season there’s not a single intriguing player, let alone a lineup full of them.

[CubinNY]

Yes, this team is built to be solidly mediocre at baseline. If they get some breakouts they can be a step above. If they get some flops, they have the ability to replace them. They’d have to have a lot of bad things to happen to be bad (low 70s win total). If you factor in the competition, it’s really hard to see a bad win total outcome.

 

This is Ricketts dream team.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Looking forward to confusing Wick and Wieck again in 2024

 

[Irrelevant Dude]

Uelmen to the Phillies for cash money dollars

Had to pay for Brad Wieck's minor league contact somehow.

[Post Count Padder]

We signed Ryan Borucki to a minors deal. He's been good against lefties in his career and we don't have much lefty relief depth so...

 

Throwing stuff at a wall type signing.

[Cubswin11]

Looking forward to confusing Wick and Wieck again in 2024

 

Jordan Wicks could be up soon too

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Looking forward to confusing Wick and Wieck again in 2024

 

Jordan Wicks could be up soon too

 

[Bertz]

 

Two Cubs-specific things I think are interesting here. First, by this crude measure the Cubs have added the most talent in baseball this offseason. Second, the Dodgers are just a razors edge under the LT. You wonder if they might deal a reliever just to free up a little room. Like they'd probably just give away Daniel Hudson under the circumstances, while Jed's expressed a desire to still add another veteran or two to the mix. Hudson's a well revered dude around the league and not going to be insistent in 9th inning duty.

[Derwood]

[tweet]

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

Second, the Dodgers are just a razors edge under the LT. You wonder if they might deal a reliever just to free up a little room. Like they'd probably just give away Daniel Hudson under the circumstances, while Jed's expressed a desire to still add another veteran or two to the mix. Hudson's a well revered dude around the league and not going to be insistent in 9th inning duty.

 

Would they? Roster Resource has Hudson as the de facto closer, and while there's plenty of talent and 2022 performance in their pen, it is light on MLB late inning experience for a championship contender. My guess is before selling off Hudson they'd kick someone a prospect to eat the last year of Treinen's deal while he rehabs his shoulder.

[champaignchris]

 

Two Cubs-specific things I think are interesting here. First, by this crude measure the Cubs have added the most talent in baseball this offseason. Second, the Dodgers are just a razors edge under the LT. You wonder if they might deal a reliever just to free up a little room. Like they'd probably just give away Daniel Hudson under the circumstances, while Jed's expressed a desire to still add another veteran or two to the mix. Hudson's a well revered dude around the league and not going to be insistent in 9th inning duty.

 

Not arguing any of the broader points in the article or your post, but it’s really weird the article says the Dodgers are “The closest thing baseball has to a dynasty these days,” when the Astros have gone to 4 of the last 6 World Series.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The end of the roster math is starting to get interesting, as much as that can be true even for roster sickos. With the 40 man, it's currently full so Hosmer needs to replace someone. The recently signed Kay is an obvious target, but after that you have to at least squint. Other candidates could be Rucker, one of Mastrobuoni/McKinstry, after that you're having to part with upside(Estrada/Rodriguez) or recent MLB form(Sampson/Assad).

 

Plus this isn't likely to be the last addition of the offseason, I'd expect there to be at least one more reliever brought in, and in optimizing the 26 man roster you could probably stand to add an OF to the mix too. Several 40 man guys could be trade options for one of those(Madrigal, Sampson, maybe Velazquez), and strictly speaking you don't have to have another bat(the bench is already a roster spot heavy unless you're optioning Madrigal, Velazquez can be the reserve OF), but the path gets a little hazy from here.

[Bertz]

Second, the Dodgers are just a razors edge under the LT. You wonder if they might deal a reliever just to free up a little room. Like they'd probably just give away Daniel Hudson under the circumstances, while Jed's expressed a desire to still add another veteran or two to the mix. Hudson's a well revered dude around the league and not going to be insistent in 9th inning duty.

 

Would they? Roster Resource has Hudson as the de facto closer, and while there's plenty of talent and 2022 performance in their pen, it is light on MLB late inning experience for a championship contender. My guess is before selling off Hudson they'd kick someone a prospect to eat the last year of Treinen's deal while he rehabs his shoulder.

 

I mean we saw first hand in '19/'20 with Descalso and Kintzler that for whatever reason it's usually not actually all that simple. I don't know if opposing teams jack up prices exorbitantly knowing the circumstances, or if owners/the league squash it because they don't like the optics, but we just don't see as many of those moves as you'd logically expect.

 

And the Dodgers have Philips, Graterol, Vesia, Almonte and Ferguson who project similarly or better to Hudson and aren't just kids they'd be throwing into the fire. Their pen isn't so good that they'd needlessly shed a reliever, but they likely need to move some salary and Hudson/Treinen are the clear two most reasonable options.

[muntjack]

If there was a way to wager on the Cubs making a substantial trade soon, I would.

[Cubswin11]

The end of the roster math is starting to get interesting, as much as that can be true even for roster sickos. With the 40 man, it's currently full so Hosmer needs to replace someone. The recently signed Kay is an obvious target, but after that you have to at least squint. Other candidates could be Rucker, one of Mastrobuoni/McKinstry, after that you're having to part with upside(Estrada/Rodriguez) or recent MLB form(Sampson/Assad).

 

Plus this isn't likely to be the last addition of the offseason, I'd expect there to be at least one more reliever brought in, and in optimizing the 26 man roster you could probably stand to add an OF to the mix too. Several 40 man guys could be trade options for one of those(Madrigal, Sampson, maybe Velazquez), and strictly speaking you don't have to have another bat(the bench is already a roster spot heavy unless you're optioning Madrigal, Velazquez can be the reserve OF), but the path gets a little hazy from here.

Madrigal has no fit on this roster. Trade him plus one of the fringe 40-man pitchers we have for the best, closest to the league guy who isn’t on a 40-man or a 2-1 swap for one who makes sense. Maybe they try and sneak a Mckinstry, Kay or other type through waivers soon as you mentioned, with most teams having roster crunches.

 

Regardless there has to be a trade(s) brewing and/or trying to sneak a guy through soon.

[Post Count Padder]

I had been thinking up some kind of

 

Madrigal, Rivas, ManRod, Rucker, Riley Thompson/insert favorite tradeable prospect to the As for Seth Brown and Aj Puk but idk how much it makes sense or if the A's would even be interested. Seems like it would give them depth and their recent trades have seen them targeting quantity over quality.

[Bertz]

If there was a way to wager on the Cubs making a substantial trade soon, I would.

 

IMO it's hard to see post Smyly and Hosmer. Like TT said there's definitely some cleanup at the tail end of the roster that needs to happen, but that probably looks like Madrigal or Velazquez traded for their weight in relief help. YMMV on whether that would qualify as substantial.

 

To me, there were two exceptions to this where I could see something happening. First was Rafael Devers, but it looks like that window just closed.

 

The other is a third SP addition to replace of Hendricks. The team has been fairly cagey about him all winter. The last thing we heard was that they were going to Driveline him, and that program was slated to start in early December. Well it's been a month, and still most discussion around Kyle still sounds very wishy washy and aspirational ("if he's healthy..."). IMO that's kind of weird, as if healthy the dude clearly gets first crack at a rotation slot coming out of spring training, and if he's been back on the mound for a month the team should have a pretty good idea if he's healthy. So if you told me that Kyle got hurt again on the hush hush and Smyly was signed as a fifth starter, I'd absolutely believe you. And SP is probably the one position you could still go hard on the trade market.

[Bertz]

There is probably more veteran RHH bat incoming to round out the roster. It's possible the team simply goes with Madrigal or Velazquez instead of a vet, but seems more likely they open next year out of the org and at Iowa respectively. Trey Mancini has been talked about extensively all offseason, so he's probably the smart money, but here's a few other potential options that are at least somewhat interesting:

 

Adam Duvall

Cons - Clearly the worst bat on this list due to major contact issues. And it's not even clear he can serve as a platoon guy. He's generally mashed lefties, but in his career year in '21 (where he got by far his most playing time ever) he had very stark reverse splits, so you can't even totally count on him for platoon duty

Pros - A very good defender, so much so that it's not crazy that he could be an everyday guy and push Bellinger to 1B (or the bench if he's struggling). The weirdness I laid out with his splits is probably a one year anomally

 

Tommy Pham

Cons - He essentially hasn't produced since COVID, despite plenty of opportunity. Even though there's quite a bit to really like under the hood, he's passed through three different orgs since he was last productive. So how likely is it to actually get him back on track? With the Joc Pederson thing and the stabbing, it's not totally clear if he's a bad dude or simply a redass

Pros - He's still very patient, relatively fast, and hits the piss out of the ball. Statcast thinks he was a top ~50 hitter in baseball in '20 and '21. It feels like whatever adjustment(s) are required to be that guy he was in 2018/2019 are pretty minor, despite them not having been made yet. Even when struggling he's generally been a strong platoon bat (115 wRC+ vs lefties last year)

 

Andrew McCutchen

Cons - Similar to Pham in that Statcast paints a picture that his productivity simply does not back up. He hasn't had a good full season since leaving Pittsburgh

Pros - Statcast thinks he's still been a very good hitter in Philly and Milwaukee. There's an argument he's part of the shortlist of RHH who potentially stand to gain significantly from the shift ban, which might be the explanation for the Statcast/real world disagreement? Also like Pham, either way he's still mashed lefties the last several years so he's rosterable even in the worst of scenarios. Unlike Pham, he's an all-time likable dude

 

Gary Sanchez

Cons - After his early career highs, the last several years his offense has generally been good *for a catcher* rather than actually good. He drastically underperforms his Statcast numbers every single year, but it's not totally clear you can blame the shift. He's a poor defensive catcher, but not necessarily so poor that he'd definitely be willing to shift to primary 1b/DH duty. Reverse splits 2 of last 3 years means he's not a definite offensive fit with Mervis/Hosmer/etc.

Pros - He hits the ball hard at an elite level, and he has a good eye as well. We just saw with Willson how much gain you can realize from an offense-first catcher when dialing way back on that wear and tear from behind the plate. Ross has generally really enjoyed the strategic options opened up by having three catchers on the roster

 

AJ Pollock and Luke Voit might also be theoretically possible, but Pollock seems likely to be too expensive (I'd imagine he's still in line for a multi-year deal?) and Luke Voit has reverse splits which don’t really jive with what the Cubs need.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

AJ Pollock and Luke Voit might also be theoretically possible, but Pollock seems likely to be too expensive (I'd imagine he's still in line for a multi-year deal?) and Luke Voit has reverse splits which don’t really jive with what the Cubs need.

 

Pollock is intriguing, he was pretty poor for someone with his workload last year, but got better as the season went on, and for this roster spot would be a nice addition given his track record and skill set. Kinda wonder if he has an inflated sense of his value that he's still unsigned though, by turning down his player option he essentially bet that he'd do better than 1/8 in FA, and I'm not sure where that would be coming from at this point.

[Cubswin11]

Agree we need to add some sort of RHH, preferably someone who can plan some 3B. Brian Anderson as a FA maybe?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Agree we need to add some sort of RHH, preferably someone who can plan some 3B. Brian Anderson as a FA maybe?

 

Are there meaningful at bats at 3B to be had for a bench bat? Morel, Wisdom, and probably one of McKinstry/Mastrobuoni will be on the roster, Mervis & Hosmer are going to get meaningful 1B/DH at bats, and that addition regardless of position will suck up further DH opportunities. You can make a similar point for other positions too, so my point is really I don't think it matters much what the bat can do positionally, though if anything I'd lean towards it needing to be an OF.

[Cubswin11]

Agree we need to add some sort of RHH, preferably someone who can plan some 3B. Brian Anderson as a FA maybe?

 

Are there meaningful at bats at 3B to be had for a bench bat? Morel, Wisdom, and probably one of McKinstry/Mastrobuoni will be on the roster, Mervis & Hosmer are going to get meaningful 1B/DH at bats, and that addition regardless of position will suck up further DH opportunities. You can make a similar point for other positions too, so my point is really I don't think it matters much what the bat can do positionally, though if anything I'd lean towards it needing to be an OF.

I think 3B could be a severe problem. Wisdom might suck, Morel is an unknown and may suck and also is probably better used as a roving utility guy, the LHH options are fine but also may need to be used elsewhere. Anderson also can play OF, I just want a little more backfill at 3B.

 

The best option, obviously, is to just suck it up and sign Correa for 3B. Then all of Wisdom, Morel, Madrigal, LHH options, Velazquez come become true utility/bench guys and have options and you have a fairly deep roster.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Cubswin11

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Another factor here could be if they feel that Wisdom's usefulness has mostly run its course and they don't want to count on him making the roster

 

[UMFan83]

This is quoted from a tweet from someone who protects their tweets so I can’t link it directly

 

Jared Banner just said on 670 he’s impressed at Cubs fans on twitter. Said sometimes he sees tweets that go along with the front offices thinking, and even sometimes we present them with new ideas. Good work ladies and gents. We did it

 

Not sure how I feel about the FO sourcing ideas from Twitter :D

[Gilby]

I mentioned this a few weeks ago but I would be legitimately interested in Ha Seong Kim. The Pads supposedly want pitching depth, which we have, and Madrigal (or Mastrobuoni I guess) could slide in as his replacement at 2B. Plus it would give them a little more breathing room under the 3rd luxury tax tier.

 

Kim obviously isn't a big bat but was still above average last year and always a wizard with the glove. And if you're into low GB% he has that too. If we're doing the run prevention thing, I am concerned about our current 3B situation. Wisdom was good in 21 and Morel has all the tools but man they were both really shaky there last season.