2023 MLB Draft Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA dropped a top 10 mock today: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-mock-draft-way-too-early-look-at-the-top-10-picks/

 

1. Nationals — Dylan Crews, OF, Louisiana State

2. Athletics — Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Ind.) Community HS

3. Reds — Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

4. Cubs — Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS, Southport, N.C.

5. Royals — Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi

6. Tigers — Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest

7. Pirates — Enrique Bradfield, OF, Vanderbilt

8. Angels — Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida

9. D-backs — Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner HS, Drexel Hill, Pa.

10. Rangers — Will Sanders, RHP, South Carolina

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Tryptamine]

They're sitting with the 4th worst record currently and half a game out of 3rd worst. I don't think they'll catch the Nationals who are just amazingly awful(on pace for 109 L with Soto). It's unfortunate that the lottery starts during this draft, because once Robertson/Contreras are traded, I think they're a near lock for top 3.

[craig]

They're sitting with the 4th worst record currently and half a game out of 3rd worst. I don't think they'll catch the Nationals who are just amazingly awful(on pace for 109 L with Soto). It's unfortunate that the lottery starts during this draft, because once Robertson/Contreras are traded, I think they're a near lock for top 3.

 

The worst three teams get equal lottery odds. Each gets 1/6 odds, so 50% shot that one of the worst three will get pick #1. *IF* they finish with one of the 3rd worst records, they'll have >60% probability of getting one of the top 5 picks.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Right now, next year's draft class isn't overwhelming at the top. We're over halfway through the key summer events, so a couple of more names will emerge, but most likely outside the top 30-50, just filling out the depth of the class.

 

Unlike last year at this time, when we already had Druw Jones and Termarr Johnson in a top tier, and the year before when we knew Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer were going to go in the top 10 for sure (and probably high up), this time around we have some solid names but no slam-dunk No. 1 overall prospect.

 

Multiple times in the process of whittling down this list, I was told to move a player out of one of the top few spots -- but the person suggesting that never had a replacement name in mind. The FV, or future value, here at the top (50 is the highest and there are 10 players at that tier) tells you that numerically: the three top prep position players in this year's draft (Jones, Johnson and Jackson Holliday) were all 55 FVs, which is basically spots 20-to-50 on the minor league Top 100. The top 10 on this list would all fit in the 51-to-120 slots on an extended top 100, so it's pretty tightly packed.

 

On the bright side, the college pitching crop has bounced back and the 50 FV tier is deeper this year than last (eight players were 50 FV or better in the 2022 draft) because of the depth of the college hitter class.

 

1. Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida

2. Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon U - Jack Wilson’s son

3. Max Clark, CF, Franklin Community HS (IN)

4. Dylan Crews, RF, LSU

5. Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

6. Walker Jenkins, RF, South Brunswick HS (NC)

7. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss

8. Brayden Taylor, 2B, TCU

9. Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner HS (PA)

10. Enrique Bradfield Jr., CF, Vanderbilt

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

9. Chicago Cubs

Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest

The Cubbies went off the board with Oklahoma righty Cade Horton in 2022, their third college arm in the last four drafts. There’s a lot of good college arms in this class and Lowder may be the best of the lot. Up to 97 with a plus, maybe better, changeup. Lowder has creative ways to get batters of both handedness out. His slider is solid average, maybe a tick better right now, but he’s got a whippy, athletic operation on the mound and some evaluators think there’s more in the tank coming. Lowder would join a future rotation featuring Jordan Wicks, and Horton, a potential nasty three-headed monster, each of whom bring a different look and style to the bump.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Tim]

So you're saying there's a chance....

[Tryptamine]

I thought they were a lock for a top 4 going into the ASB and now they're looking at #12, gross.

[chopsx9]

I thought they were a lock for a top 4 going into the ASB and now they're looking at #12, gross.

Oddibe McDowell was a #12 pick!

[We Got The Whole 9]

The Dodgers pick 30th every year and end up with a top 30 prospect within 2 years. WGAS.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

1. Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

2. Dylan Crews, OF, LSU

3. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss

4. Max Clark, OF, HS

5. Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida

6. Walker Jenkins, OF, HS

7. Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon U - Jack Wilson’s son

8. Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida

9. Brayden Taylor, SS, TCU

10. Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Tom should be happy:

 

[UK]

Tom should be happy:

 

 

Screw Tom. Maxwell Clark for the win.

[Bertz]

 

I believe this would apply to the Cubs as well. If we haven't seen them yet by 12 it means they got a lottery pick

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 it is

[Transmogrified Tiger]

the most important thing I learned watching the lottery was that the White Sox apparently made Dave Kaplan their scouting director

 

[toonsterwu]

I'm sure if I thought deeper about it, I could come up with something, but this sure feels like one of the deepest college drafts in recent history. As a UVA fan, the most interesting thing to me is what they do with Kyle Teel. If he shows that his bat can bounce back to his freshman season while sticking behind the plate, he's a possible top 10 pick. There was some thought his bat wore down last year due to the wear and tear behind the plate. He wants to stick behind the plate, but his bat may be too valuable, for them and for him, to stay there.

 

Curious when Tanner Witt can start throwing. Could be an interesting factor to see who pops him on his upside.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA mock: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-mock-draft-full-first-round-with-draft-lottery-complete-draft-order-set/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email

 

13. Cubs — Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland

 

Shaw significantly improved his draft profile in 2022 by hitting for more power, sliding to shortstop full time and then ranking as the top prospect in the Cape Cod League. That made him one of our biggest risers after the 2022 summer circuit concluded.

[toonsterwu]

Hey, I've had some personal issues to deal with over the last year and a half so I don't follow baseball as much as before (other than chuckling to myself when I saw Matt Swarmer in the bigs). I think chatter right now has Teel mid-late first, and as a talent, he is far superior to that. Honestly, this may sound like a weird comp, but he sort of makes me think of a smaller ... Bryce Harper. And by smaller, I'm only referencing height ... I think his bat has insanely high potential.

 

I think UVA is bouncing back a bit overall. Saw some stuff on the arms coming in, and besides the top arms, there's a couple sleepers I really like, and they got good college transfers this year (not like last year, when it was sort of let's take sleepers). Well, can't say bouncing back since they were in the CWS two years ago. I still don't buy McGarry as a longterm starter (his stuff just can't carry the inconsistent control, IMO, but I'm hopeful I'm wrong), but it is starting to convince me that UVA arms need to go when they can. The guy that's really turning my head is Mike Vasil - the former top prep pick who sort of disappeared at UVA, and now looks like a possible mid-rotation arm if all goes well.

 

Newell ... the Dodgers have a rough one there that I just don't buy. Love the kid's attitude and flair, but they have to heavily temper that strikeout rate, improve the hit tool, while maintaining the power. I mean, if there's an organization that could do it, maybe the Dodgers could, but I just don't see it. He reminds me too much of former UVA/SF Giants CF Jarrett Parker, but Jarrett had less issues, relatively speaking. As for bats, I'm just not sure what Jake Gelof is. I'm just not sure it's enough in a 1st/LF role.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

13. Chicago Cubs

Kevin McGonigle, Infield, Monsignor Bonner

The Cubs haven’t shied away from high-end prep prospects. McGonigle has the looks of a stud second baseman at the next level, a guy who has a chance to hit .300 year in and year out. He’s got double-digit homerun potential too. McGonigle may have the longest track record of pure hit-ability in this class going back several years.