2023 MLB Draft Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Currently, this Cubs comp pick would be 72nd overall (since the Angels, Cardinals and Padres have all forfeited their 2nd rounder for free agent signings). Obviously subject to change with additional QO-free agents signings.

[UK]

 

13. Chicago Cubs

Kevin McGonigle, Infield, Monsignor Bonner

The Cubs haven’t shied away from high-end prep prospects. McGonigle has the looks of a stud second baseman at the next level, a guy who has a chance to hit .300 year in and year out. He’s got double-digit homerun potential too. McGonigle may have the longest track record of pure hit-ability in this class going back several years.

 

Fwiw, I like the videos and reports on Nimmala more than McGonigle. I also like the swing and power potential of Aiden Miller.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

13. Chicago Cubs

Kevin McGonigle, Infield, Monsignor Bonner

The Cubs haven’t shied away from high-end prep prospects. McGonigle has the looks of a stud second baseman at the next level, a guy who has a chance to hit .300 year in and year out. He’s got double-digit homerun potential too. McGonigle may have the longest track record of pure hit-ability in this class going back several years.

 

Fwiw, I like the videos and reports on Nimmala more than McGonigle. I also like the swing and power potential of Aiden Miller.

 

I’m biased but for non-baseball reasons, I would love Nimmala.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

13. Cubs: Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami

The last time the Cubs went college bat in the first round they took Nico Hoerner in 2018, and he established himself as a big league regular in 2022. They also selected Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant as college hitter first-rounders, and Morales and his power bat could have that kind of impact.

[UK]

Maybe a habit the Cubs can pick up from the Braves is routinely finding home state talents...Best HS prospect from Illinois in this draft, Dillon Head, looks pretty good and probably isn't a first rounder:

 

 

I'm in the minority here but I prefer Zander Mueth as far as IL prospects.

[Named After Maddux]

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/1/15/2023-mlb-draft-prospects-fx4td-92ll4

 

Prospects Live is great, Patreon might be worthwhile as baseball content goes

 

Waaaaaay too low on the trio of Bradfield (9), Wilson (11), and Taylor (13) but please any of the three to Cubs. Bradfield’s crazy underrated in general, get to Cubs please

 

Grice at 241. It would be pretty sweet, ideal even, to use a non-first on this guy

 

Ryan Bruno, 156, struck out 40% of hitters at Stanford last year…LHP was a strong HS prospect…Tbh other than Thomas White and a couple others, I’m more interested in this kind of pitcher in this draft.…Alejandro Rosario RHP, 142, out of Miami was another big name in the HS ranks…Tanner Witt’s like this but is seen as a first rounder…LHP Liam Sullivan at Georgia sounds familiar…Cam Brown at TCU…

 

Big fan of Bradfield and Taylor. I think the floor with Taylor is really high, but he is in a weird place where his avg EV (87 mph and 92nd% EV are just pretty solid. Still agree that he's a top guy, but in a class entering the year with more pitching, I'm not surprised he's sitting in that 10-15 range for many. I'd be totally fine if he drops to the Cubs, of course. Bradfield is a unicorn. I'll be very interested to see how he does this season. Funny enough he hits the ball harder than Taylor (89 mph avg EV) though he doesn't barrel the ball very well (3%, which is below average in college).

Wilson I think is ranked very well because he's an inflection point. You talk to some around and they completely buy in that he's adding power. He's a 90% or so contact rate guy, but does not hit the ball hard. He started to a bit this summer and that's a great sign. If he hits for actual power this season he could be a darkhorse 1:1 for his Dad's old team, Pittsburgh. But if he hits where he does now I don't think I could justify a top 15 pick on him. The defense comes and goes. He's looked great for me when he played in Corvallis, but then he's had other games where it's just not viable at SS. I imagine there will be some division on him at SS.

 

Caden Grice came into college with massive hype. I still think the talent is there, but wow he struggles with contact. It's ghastly and right around 60ish%. And it's breaking balls and velocity (pitches 93+). 2021, he had a great year and 2022 both at Clemson and on the Cape he struggled. Could always be something non-baseball that's no longer an issue. But like you said if you can take a lower pick and gamble, I'm good gambling on a power carrying tool.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Opening day:

 

 

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Longehagen’s draft board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2023-mlb-draft/summary?type=0&sort=-1,1

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Good stuff from one of our own:

 

[Named After Maddux]

^ Nice, he and McDaniel have this Ralph Velazquez kid pretty high (McDaniel at 30). Maybe not for Cubs but seems good

 

——

 

 

 

Two out of two post pandemic drafts have feature The Best Pitching Prospect Since guys and neither might be the best in the class? Porter passed Lesko last year IMO, handily, Waldrep is McRae’s favorite college arm (Skenes maybe climbing), and Burns may be the best SP prospect on the Vols roster

 

Thanks! It’s been fun and lots more to come this year.

 

Waldrep: Waldrep is a cut-ride guy. Averaged 94.8 mph (2280 rpm) and right about 3 inches of horizontal movement (~4 inches of perceived cut) alongside 18 inches of induced vertical break. Slider (87 mph) moved 8 inches of sweep so not a true sweeper, which is fine. I’m intrigued by the splitter/split-change. He only used it about 3-4% last season and it sat at 86 mph. He killed spin like crazy and it was around 1100 rpms. I’m not sure the movement is that impressive on it and I need to see it in action more. And sure enough he’s starting to use it more in his 2023 starts.

 

Dollander is still being stretched out and he’s looked more really damn good than superhuman, but still has 19K/2BB in 10 1/3 innings.

 

Health is insanely huge when projecting but if we’re sitting here when conference play rolls around and you have Dollander, Skenes, and Waldrep doing this it’s going to be hard for teams to pass that up in the top 7-8 even if they don’t prefer going pitcher.

Don’t lose sight of Rhett Lowder. He’s been fantastic.

[CubinNY]

Keith Law early draft rankings are out

 

https://theathletic.com/4266342/2023/03/03/mlb-draft-prospects-players-list/

 

He says this is a deep draft. Top 5 listed here

 

Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida

This is going to be the debate all spring — the toolsier Langford or the more famous Dylan Crews. Langford shows as much power as Crews and both were high-contact, high-average hitters all of last year, while Langford is a 70 runner underway and shows more explosiveness. He’s only played the outfield corners, however, with Michael Robertson in center for the Gators, so moving him to center in pro ball will be based on an assumption that his speed will carry him.

 

Dylan Crews, OF, LSU

Crews was probably heading for a second-round pick in 2020 after a slow start was cut short by the pandemic, after which he pulled his name out of the draft, because why would you want someone to offer you a whole lot of money that you can turn down without any negative ramifications? Anyway, Crews has hit since the moment he started playing for the Tigers, with a .365/.470/.683 career line through Sunday’s games and just a 16 percent strikeout rate. He’s got a great swing and everyone believes he’ll hit in pro ball, but he’s the opposite of Langford in the field, a center fielder scouts think will move to a corner by the time he sees the majors. These guys are likely to be 1-2 or 2-1 on just about every team’s list.

 

Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Ole Miss

Gonzalez is the safest of the players in the next tier, a high-contact shortstop with a good eye at the plate who rarely chases out of the zone but has no plus tools. He hit more homers in his sophomore year than in his freshman year, going from 12 to 18, but his average dropped to .273 thanks to a huge drop in his BABIP. It looks fluky and I think he’s the highest-floor guy in this group.

 

Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU

Taylor’s swing is … uh … haberdasher-made for hitting, I guess. It’s simple and direct and he hits the ball fairly hard with a lot of line drives and enough power to project him as an above-average regular at third. He’s helped himself with solid showings on the Cape and is off to a strong start this year as TCU has played some of the best competition so far of any major program, with a series against Florida State and games against Vanderbilt and Arkansas already.

 

Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

Dollander came into the season as the top college starter, as he sits 95-96, touching 99, with good life up on the pitch and plus control. His slider was a 65 or 70 last year, 83-86 mph with high spin rates and very sharp, short break, but he hasn’t had it in two starts this year, with the pitch flat and barely breaking much of the time. Both homers he’s allowed this year came on sliders that might as well have been sitting on tees for the hitters. He has a decent changeup but barely uses it. He’s a top-10 pick if the slider comes back, but there are too many other college starters right now for him to stay here if he can’t regain it.

[CubinNY]

Law has Kyle Teel, C, Virginia at 15. This guy looks like a good target to me for the Cubs at 13.

 

If a team believes strongly in Teel as a long-term catcher, he should be a top 10 pick, or close to it — Kevin Parada was less of a defender with more stick and he went 11th in last year’s draft. Teel is an excellent athlete with a strong arm, and has a good swing with excellent hand acceleration, but he had some bad BABIP luck last year and hit just .276/.402/.439, a drop from his strong freshman season in 2021. He projects to hit for average with more doubles and triples power thanks to his 55 speed.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

Dollander has competition

[CaliforniaRaisin]

First mock and with an off script pick:

 

Pirates: Dylan Crews OF - Sometimes it's OK to be a basic horsefeathers and this is one of those times

Nationals: Paul Skenes RHSP - Power rotation a'comin

Tigers: Wyatt Langord OF - No way they take an arm and no way he gets out of the first 3 picks just on power

Rangers: Kyle Teel C - Cheap power is always popular and he's getting to his, could play 1B or LF maybe even 2B

Twins: Chase Dollander RHSP - Very Twins in that he throws a ton of strikes, brings velo they could use

Athletics: Jacob Gonzalez SS - Thought about Waldrep but go with the big LHH SS from the SEC

Reds: Hurson Waldrep RHSP - No issues jumping to the SEC, power rotation arm, not so different from Horton last year

Royals: Jacob Wilson 3B - They need a layup and Wilson's close enough for pick 8 in the MLB draft, seems twitchy

Rockies: Enrique Bradfield Jr CF - Covers massive ground in CF, which they need, has the tools and aptitude to work out an offensive game

Marlins: Max Clark CF - I think they're trading Chisholm soon, hopefully to Cubs

Angels: Rhett Lowder RHSP - Also considered Tanner Witt for a team moving on from Ohtani and already short on RHSP options

D'Backs: Aidan Miller 3B - Older HS bat has physicality and power, RH version of Brett Baty

 

Cubs: Eric Bitoni SS/3B - I know, I know, but consider that this guy is crazy young (11/05 bday), big (6'4" 205), has EVs that stack with more famous guys like Eldridge and Clark, should be cheaper, can defend, performed during his junior summer...All the tools to develop into a prototypical 3B with a power LH bat

 

Other notable first round picks: Thomas White to the Yankees, booooooo

 

Non-first splurges:

 

George Lombard Jr. 3B/SS - One of those HS players who'd be more draft famous if asking for less money, could be a 1-1 guy once in college

 

OR

 

Adrian Santana SS - Think Brayan Rocchio with the Guardians

 

OR

 

Will Gasparino 1B/OF - Broke his hand in the fall so not playing rn, alls I'm asking for is Goldschmidt 2.0

 

 

Non-firsts:

 

Chase Davis OF - Very confident player which can rub ppl wrong, but could be a better pro than NCAA player if he can take coaching

Jaden Woods LHRP

Chrisitan Little RHP - Two SEC relievers, Little's looked like a Future closer when pitching this year

TJ McCants 2B - Well regarded going back to HS but has never really separated, 22 on draft day so cheap

Drew Bowser OF/1B - I don't know how cheap a Stanford kid via Harvard-Westlake might be but has RH power

James McCoy - Giant switch hitting college bat at Kentucky

Tre Morgan 1B/OF - Popular player at LSU, superlative 1B defender, playing some OF this year, needs work on offense, 20 on draft day

CJ Kayfus 1B - Undersized college 1B

Etc etc etc

 

I would be mad if Nimmala was available and the Cubs passed on him.

 

Also:

 

[Named After Maddux]

I would be mad if Nimmala was available and the Cubs passed on him.

 

Also:

 

 

You can swap out Nimmala and Miller there. I'm not all in on Nimmala though, a little skeptical of the overall athleticism and projection on the frame. The age/EV/position combo makes him a super model friendly prospect, but there's a pretty strong group of 17 YO hitters in this draft with Bitoni and Velazquez off the top kinda hanging in higher round potential ...Not to be all prospect hipster but Arjun's brother is similarly aged for his draft class (2024), bigger, faster...

 

Tom, good mock. Thanks for posting that. I’ll echo CR that it’d be surprising if Nimmala was passed up, but I’d be even more shocked if he’s anywhere close to even available. Nimmala is rail thin and yet produces really strong bat speed. From people that have met him, they love the person in addition to the player. His hitting mechanics actually remind me of Brennen’s mechanics and that’s how I project his optimal future offensive potential, .260-270/.340/.480 with a 25% K-rate from a SS/3B profile. Some see even higher production. Age isn’t everything, but Nimmala specifically being so young is helpful because he still has so much strength potential a pro team can do their best to optimize those strength gains to still maximize mobility and range.

 

This is a good counterexample to Cam Collier last year, who I loved as a prospect. I asked for feedback on him after the draft and the gist was that people thought that he was really good but some questioned if his physical frame at 17 meant he was destined for 1B soon. So basically was Collier a future all-star? I got mixed opinions there. For Nimmala, he shares some traits with Jordan Lawler though much younger on draft day since Lawler was about 19.

 

No quibbles with the Bitonti pick. He’s a guy I have ranked with a second round grade but it’s all about the ability to pick up spin. He is young like you said so if he’s doing that better on that, he could go in a range similar to Nolan Gorman did in 2018, which fits your pick. It’s a bit LHH offensive profile.

 

If you want an off the radar pick, look into Gavin Grahovac. If you watch him on a good day he looks like a no-doubt first rounder. He struggled at this this past summer, but he made some adjustments over the winter and he’s having better success. Not saying he’d be Cubs pick at 13, but a strong spring makes it at least possible. I’ll be dropping a quick Twitter post, possibly a thread about him tomorrow with some video from a recent game.

[Bertz]

 

Given the Cubs are at #13, I do wonder if the best player available might end up being the top HS Arm rather than a 2nd tier player from one of the more valuable demos. I'm probably going to be a lot more open to that demo this year than most years.

[Hrubes20]

 

Given the Cubs are at #13, I do wonder if the best player available might end up being the top HS Arm rather than a 2nd tier player from one of the more valuable demos. I'm probably going to be a lot more open to that demo this year than most years.

 

Same. I'm more open to them going after impact, regardless of risk, than I have been in years past.

[Named After Maddux]

 

Given the Cubs are at #13, I do wonder if the best player available might end up being the top HS Arm rather than a 2nd tier player from one of the more valuable demos. I'm probably going to be a lot more open to that demo this year than most years.

 

It really could be this year. Cam Johnson and Charlee Soto both show some really crazy stuff. Most years the top prep arm is popped right around where the Cubs are picking and it would be a fun follow in the minors. I’d say the other demographic to watch is the high school shortstops. Colin Houck, Cooper Pratt are guys who look like middle of the first type players. It’s a fantastic demographic and I like both of those guys to be more offensive SS profiles versus Ed Howard in 2020. I’m a big fan of going prep at 13 overall knowing that a comp pick B is tricky to overslot there.

I dunno though. Rhett Lowder fits the mold of a Cubs pick and while I rank him high I’m not sure that’s profile that gets me amped up right now. Just really hoping for an upside play or a college bat to fall for no real reason.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA mock: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-mock-draft-version-10/

 

13. Cubs — Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest (14)

Drafter: Carlos

 

Carlos’ Take: Even after seeing a bit of a middling start from Lowder last weekend, I think he has a pretty solid overall profile, a quality mix of three pitches and a great foundation of command and strike throwing. Yes, there is more upside to be found on the board here than Lowder, but there’s something to be said for a high probability profile as well, no?

 

Scout's Take: This is probably the range of the draft where historically we have seen, for lack of a better term, a “flight to safety” with these sorts of profiles overall. Guys with lots of innings, great control—you feel good about the probability of being an MLB contributor even if it’s just a No. 4 starter.

 

McGonigle 14, Morales 18, Eldridge 21, Nimmala 23.

[CubinNY]

BA mock: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-mock-draft-version-10/

 

13. Cubs — Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest (14)

Drafter: Carlos

 

Carlos’ Take: Even after seeing a bit of a middling start from Lowder last weekend, I think he has a pretty solid overall profile, a quality mix of three pitches and a great foundation of command and strike throwing. Yes, there is more upside to be found on the board here than Lowder, but there’s something to be said for a high probability profile as well, no?

 

Scout's Take: This is probably the range of the draft where historically we have seen, for lack of a better term, a “flight to safety” with these sorts of profiles overall. Guys with lots of innings, great control—you feel good about the probability of being an MLB contributor even if it’s just a No. 4 starter.

 

McGonigle 14, Morales 18, Eldridge 21, Nimmala 23.

puke emoji

[Hrubes20]

BA mock: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-mock-draft-version-10/

 

13. Cubs — Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest (14)

Drafter: Carlos

 

Carlos’ Take: Even after seeing a bit of a middling start from Lowder last weekend, I think he has a pretty solid overall profile, a quality mix of three pitches and a great foundation of command and strike throwing. Yes, there is more upside to be found on the board here than Lowder, but there’s something to be said for a high probability profile as well, no?

 

Scout's Take: This is probably the range of the draft where historically we have seen, for lack of a better term, a “flight to safety” with these sorts of profiles overall. Guys with lots of innings, great control—you feel good about the probability of being an MLB contributor even if it’s just a No. 4 starter.

 

McGonigle 14, Morales 18, Eldridge 21, Nimmala 23.

 

Oof. No thanks.

[Named After Maddux]

BA mock: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-mock-draft-version-10/

 

13. Cubs — Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest (14)

Drafter: Carlos

 

Carlos’ Take: Even after seeing a bit of a middling start from Lowder last weekend, I think he has a pretty solid overall profile, a quality mix of three pitches and a great foundation of command and strike throwing. Yes, there is more upside to be found on the board here than Lowder, but there’s something to be said for a high probability profile as well, no?

 

Scout's Take: This is probably the range of the draft where historically we have seen, for lack of a better term, a “flight to safety” with these sorts of profiles overall. Guys with lots of innings, great control—you feel good about the probability of being an MLB contributor even if it’s just a No. 4 starter.

 

McGonigle 14, Morales 18, Eldridge 21, Nimmala 23.

 

Oof. No thanks.

 

Lowder isn’t my favorite profile either, but the Cubs picking him wouldn’t be a surprise.

Wish Nimmala was more of a candidate to be available at 13. I’d be shocked to see him reach pick 14.

[CubinNY]

BA mock: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-mock-draft-version-10/

 

 

 

McGonigle 14, Morales 18, Eldridge 21, Nimmala 23.

 

Oof. No thanks.

 

Lowder isn’t my favorite profile either, but the Cubs picking him wouldn’t be a surprise.

Wish Nimmala was more of a candidate to be available at 13. I’d be shocked to see him reach pick 14.

Just what they need, more depth.