2023 MLB Draft Thread

[Hrubes20]

BA mock: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-mock-draft-version-10/

 

 

 

McGonigle 14, Morales 18, Eldridge 21, Nimmala 23.

 

Oof. No thanks.

 

Lowder isn’t my favorite profile either, but the Cubs picking him wouldn’t be a surprise.

Wish Nimmala was more of a candidate to be available at 13. I’d be shocked to see him reach pick 14.

 

Oh, I absolutely agree on both counts. Lowder is very Wicks-esque to me, but from the right side. And Nimmala is the guy I am setting myself up for disappointment with. I do it every year.

[Named After Maddux]

 

Oof. No thanks.

 

Lowder isn’t my favorite profile either, but the Cubs picking him wouldn’t be a surprise.

Wish Nimmala was more of a candidate to be available at 13. I’d be shocked to see him reach pick 14.

 

Oh, I absolutely agree on both counts. Lowder is very Wicks-esque to me, but from the right side. And Nimmala is the guy I am setting myself up for disappointment with. I do it every year.

 

Wicks is a pretty good comp there although Lowder has at least been bumping 97s early in starts. He sat at a 93 mph average last season with his four-seam and that's a good tick or so better than Wicks in 2021. Lowder might be more consistently 94s when all is said and done.

But yeah I want more upside and right now I'd prefer one of the HS shortstops (Nimmala likely out of range, but Colin Houck - man the reports are strong - Colt Emerson, Walker Martin, and Roch Cholowsky all could be 1st round plays) or Blake Mitchell. I lean prep with this class with where the Cubs are picking unless someone surprising falls. Tanner Witt is a wild card right now. He could be throwing for teams by June or early July and middle of the first round bonus money is when teams have historically taken chances on TJS guys. He has frontline potential.

[We Got The Whole 9]

 

Lowder isn’t my favorite profile either, but the Cubs picking him wouldn’t be a surprise.

Wish Nimmala was more of a candidate to be available at 13. I’d be shocked to see him reach pick 14.

 

Oh, I absolutely agree on both counts. Lowder is very Wicks-esque to me, but from the right side. And Nimmala is the guy I am setting myself up for disappointment with. I do it every year.

 

Wicks is a pretty good comp there although Lowder has at least been bumping 97s early in starts. He sat at a 93 mph average last season with his four-seam and that's a good tick or so better than Wicks in 2021. Lowder might be more consistently 94s when all is said and done.

But yeah I want more upside and right now I'd prefer one of the HS shortstops (Nimmala likely out of range, but Colin Houck - man the reports are strong - Colt Emerson, Walker Martin, and Roch Cholowsky all could be 1st round plays) or Blake Mitchell. I lean prep with this class with where the Cubs are picking unless someone surprising falls. Tanner Witt is a wild card right now. He could be throwing for teams by June or early July and middle of the first round bonus money is when teams have historically taken chances on TJS guys. He has frontline potential.

What were your thoughts on Paciolla last year?

 

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[Named After Maddux]

What were your thoughts on Paciolla last year?

 

Sent from my motorola one 5G UW using Tapatalk

 

Not incredibly strong, but some of that was that I hadn't followed-up enough during the spring. Both Paciolla and Red Sox future pick Roman Anthony had a staggering combination of poor results in showcases where I had data. Between whiffs and chases, they were far and away the worst performers amongst the top prospects in the class (whiff/chass combo close to 50%). While I do buy into showcase circuit data I should have followed up more on both, especially when I heard that scouts were big in on Anthony. Cubs area scout Evan Kauffman is well-respected and he stayed on Paciolla all spring. I've heard the Cubs were very high on him and (I believe this is out there) they viewed him similarly to Mikey Romero. That's a very interesting comp and one I wouldn't think of, but both paciolla and Romero play fairly close by each other so that's probably part of it.

 

More of a summary, but I'm pretty sure I was too low on Paciolla. Data from the year before isn't the end-all be-all and I somewhat wrote him off early, especially with his UCLA commitment. To get CP in the third round for what they did was a really solid pull. He's a guy that gets buzz.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[jersey cubs fan]

Are the cubs so low because they signed dansby? 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

34 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Are the cubs so low because they signed dansby? 

That’s some of it. They’re picking 13th in the first round and have the 19th biggest bonus. They lost pick 49 (their second rounder) for Dansby but gained pick 68 (between the 2nd and 3rd) for losing Willson. The White Sox definitely jumped the Cubs because of Swanson. The Giants and Red Sox jumped the Cubs partially for not signing a QO free agent but also for getting comp picks for losing Rodón, Boagerts and Eovaldi. Tampa, Milwaukee and Baltimore jumped the Cubs because they got additional competitive balance picks and the Mariners jumped them due to a competitive balance pick and a prospect promotion incentive pick (Julio Rodríguez).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

54 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Are the cubs so low because they signed dansby? 

It looks like a couple teams jumped them because they got comp picks(Seattle for Julio winning ROY, Milwaukee & Tampa getting competitive balance picks), and a couple others jumped them because they drop from 49(for signing Swanson) to 68(for losing Willson).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Quote

13. Chicago Cubs
Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest 
While the Cubs have targeted pitching early and often in the past couple of drafts, they will use the 13th pick this season to select an athletic middle-infielder, another profile they love. The last two hitters selected in the first round by Chicago both played shortstop— Ed Howard and Nico Hoerner— and Arjun Nimmala fits the mold. The athletic, super projectable shortstop from Florida posseses a great swing plane that offers a high power ceiling. Though the hit tool lags a bit behind the power, the Cubs take a shot on the overall upside with this pick.
- Daniel Garcia

Yes, please.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Greg did another first round mock:

Quote

 

13. Chicago Cubs – Colin Houck – SS, Parkview HS, GA

Previous 1st round selections: Ryan Jensen- RHP (under Jason McLeod), Ed Howard- SS, Jordan Wicks- LHP, Cade Horton- RHP
Bonus Slot: $4,848,500

How the Cubs draft: we saw the Cubs prioritize players who the organization viewed as falling to them in Howard and Wicks, but it was clear that unless something really crazy happened last year they were very into the profile of Horton. This is an organization that has been willing to target upside with their top few selections the past few years.

Mock 2.0: Colin Houck was a two sport star whose future has him destined for baseball. Despite Houck’s quarterbacking excellence, he only pursued baseball in college. Scouts are flocking to Georgia in droves. and he’s expected to be drafted in the first round. Houck has shown agility at SS and while he may move to 3B down the line, Houck both (a) deserves the chance to try it out as SS in pro ball and (b) has the arm to handle 3B. I like his chances of being a shortstop at the next level.

Offensively, Houck shines with the ability to battle against tough competition. He generates power but also shows above-average hit. He currently drives the ball gap to gap, but projects for future above-average hit and power, which combined with his defensive positioning, make him an exciting middle of the first round target.

What if it wasn’t Colin Houck, however? I evaluated several players for this pick and compared my projecting along with reaching out to folks around the game. There were a few more common names that I considered. They include (not in any specific order) Bryce Eldridge, Arjun Nimmala, Blake Mitchell, Colt Emerson, Walker Martin, Tommy Troy, Hurston Waldrep (believed to not be available), Cam Johnson, and Noble Meyer. That’s a wide net to cast, and it’s a friendly reminder that it’s not even May yet, however those players exhibit a good deal of upside. After several drafts of mixed success targeting safe demographics, we’ve seen the Cubs bet on more upside in recent years.

“The Cubs have prospects ready to debut in late 2023 and early 2024. Why aren’t they only looking at quick-moving college bats?”. I’m a firm believer in taking the best-player available and I’m sure the Cubs are too. Arizona has an emerging core and took Druw Jones last year because he was the best available player despite Gavin Cross, Kevin Parada, and Brooks Lee all projecting to be up before Jones. So even in this mock with Ledbetter, Teel, Troy all available, I don’t believe that means the Cubs should take one of those players because of their quicker timeline. And that’s not a reflection about how the Cubs internally feel about their system or readiness to compete. The right player could absolutely be a college bat. All demographics should be on the table come July and any of those names or even ones not listed could be the future projection.

Mock 1.0: Jonny Farmelo

Other names considered: Bryce Eldridge, Arjun Nimmala, Matt Shaw, Colt Emerson

 

[Named After Maddux]

57 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

This is a very promising list

Can’t say I’m big on picking Houck at 13. He’s a little older (18.5) than I’d find ideal, and among similar aged and size HS bats getting first round attention Blake Mitchell’s LH power shows up more (93 max EV from Houck to 98 from Mitchell last summer)…

Awesome mock though, probably didn’t blink until 29. The Yankees adding Schanuel to maybe the most talented position player pool in the league would be wild 

Appreciate it, folks!

Mitchell is great. I've been very impressed with him. One thing to note on data is that it's really difficult to dig for with the high schoolers. I have Colin Houck with multiple hits (at least one HR) in the 103-105 mph range. He had a huge turnout at a recent double header. I won't specifically call out the teams, but high level execs from 5+ organizations.

I've had feedback that Colt Emerson is pretty great as well. I think he'll ultimately go higher than people think right now. He only went lower in this mock because Seattle "bought him down". Honestly feel good naming him in my preseason top 10. That's another guy you might like Tom. He turns 18 a week or so after the draft this summer.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Kiley with a huge update:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cubs get Kyle Teel. Would have preferred Enrique Bradfield who went 15th. Colin Houck - who Greg Z likes a lot - went just ahead of the Cubs to Arizona. Arizona picking at 12 is definitely going to be annoying since they love up-the-middle athletes a lot.

Quote

13. Cubs: Kyle Teel, C, Virginia (No. 15)
In a down year for catchers, Teel has really helped himself by improving tremendously at the plate (.423/.482/.665 following a .276/.402/.439 sophomore season) while maintaining quality arm strength and athleticism behind it.

 

[Hrubes20]

15 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Cubs get Kyle Teel. Would have preferred Enrique Bradfield who went 15th. Colin Houck - who Greg Z likes a lot - went just ahead of the Cubs to Arizona. Arizona picking at 12 is definitely going to be annoying since they love up-the-middle athletes a lot.

 

Don’t hate it. But it would be weird for this FO to take a guy that did so poorly in the Cape and with Team USA.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Quote

13. Cubs — Kyle Teel, C, Virginia

The clear-cut best college catcher in the class has been on a rampage all season. He’s hitting .423/.482/.665 with nine home runs and 20 doubles and he has lowered his strikeout rate to 9.2%—though he was never a huge strikeout guy in the first place. It’s an excellent foundation of athleticism with plus arm strength who should benefit from professional catching development. The swing won’t be for everyone, as it’s full of violence and effort, and his approach might need to be toned down in pro ball, but Teel should be the beneficiary of a down catching class and he’s played his way into the middle of the first round.

 

[Hrubes20]

2 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

I don't subscribe to BA.  Was Nimmala gone before 13?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

5 minutes ago, Hrubes20 said:

I don't subscribe to BA.  Was Nimmala gone before 13?

No, he went to the Orioles.

[Hrubes20]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

No, he went to the Orioles.

That would be a shame if the Cubs passed on him for a guy like Teel.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Quote

13. Arjun Nimmala, SS — Strawberry Crest

The Cubs have been no strangers to risk, and Nimmala might carry more of it than any prep in this class. But when you envision a potential big league shortstop with 30-HR upside, you might as well shoot for the moon and aim to land that organization cornerstone. 

In 2022, the Cubs selected Cade Horton. He came with a ton of risk, but the ace-upside was there. There’s plenty of good talent left on the board here, but for our money, Nimmala shouldn’t get past Chicago. 

The Cubs are at an interesting crossroads. It’s hard to totally know if they’re in a competitive window or if they’re looking to stay relevant each year with a bevy of moves to buoy the big league club. The farm is getting close to breaking through and Nimmala would slot in nicely with Pete Crow-Armstrong as a future pillar in the Windy City.

 

[Hrubes20]

11 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Let it be done.

[Named After Maddux]

2 hours ago, Hrubes20 said:

Let it be done.

Huge fan of Nimmala. I’m still a shade skeptical that he makes it to 13, but Joe’s mock lays a path. Both the Angels and Diamondbacks have been traveling in mass to meet with preps, especially shortstops.
 

A guy that I’ve heard teams like a lot is Adrian Santana and I’ve been surprised to see him mocked later. Mocks aren’t everything, but I’ve heard more like a top 15 guy than a late first/Comp A/second round guy that I see him listed as most places. He’s a switch hitter and a sure shortstop. He’s showing in-game power from both sides. It’s a profile that gets people excited. 

Very possible that three of Nimmala, Santana, Colt Emerson, Houck, and Walker Martin along with some college guys (Shaw, in particular, and then Troy) are all sitting there at 13. If that’s the case I don’t have an idea yet on how they’d navigate it. I do think they’ll lean towards some upside, but you could parse that a few ways. I entered the year thinking if Nimmala is there he’d be the most likely pick. Hope that happens. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Jonathan Mayo’s mock: 

 

Quote

13. Cubs: Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest (No. 9)
He might not have Lowd stuff (sorry, couldn’t resist), but he’s been extremely consistent and has an ERA under 2.00. He’s had back-to-back seven-inning shutouts, which certainly doesn’t hurt his stock.

Dollander went 9, Nimmala 11, Houck 12 and Bradfield 16.

[Hrubes20]

7 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Jonathan Mayo’s mock: 

 

Dollander went 9, Nimmala 11, Houck 12 and Bradfield 16.

I'm really sick of seeing Lowder mocked to the Cubs.  So that means it will probably happen.