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2023 MLB Draft Thread

CaliforniaRaisin
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CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

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  1. Chicago Cubs – Arjun Nimmala– SS

Previous 1st round selections: Ryan Jensen- RHP (under Jason McLeod), Ed Howard- SS, Jordan Wicks- LHP, Cade Horton- RHP
Bonus Slot: $4,848,500

How the Cubs draft: we saw the Cubs prioritize players who the organization viewed as falling to them in Howard and Wicks, but unless something crazy happened last year they were very into the profile of Horton. This is an organization that has been willing to target upside with their top few selections over the past few years.

I’ll say that this selection tied me up in knots. I had the ability to go back to the well again with Collin Houck and Colt Emerson, who I really buy into this spring. The upside is there with Nimmala though there is significant risk the power doesn’t show up in-game. His age and ceiling could add another top 100 caliber prospect to the organization. However if you make this selection, you want to hedge your bets with other players with different profiles later in the draft. We’ll get to that in the second round in this draft. 

Often though, fans want to talk about who else was considered.Outside of Houck, Bryce Eldridge and Noble Meyer were names I looked strongly at. The latter two have big time tools. Eldridge appears to be committed to playing as a two-way guy (hitting and pitching) at the next level and the Cubs publicly discussed doing that plan with Nazier Mule’ last year. Meyer is, in my opinion, the clear prep arm. I’d take him over Thomas White as of right now.

College guys? Yes this is a great area to target one. If one of the college arms like Waldrep, Dollander, or Lowder made it to pick 13, it’s worth a strong discussion. Enrique Bradfield Jr. could be a dynamic addition to the organization. So too could the college infielders. Tommy Troy (more on his profile soon), Brayden Taylor, and Yohandy Morales.

How about Matt Shaw? He’s a popular name here. I’m a believer in the bat, but I just can’t buy that he’s an infielder. If anything he feels like a right-handed-only Ian Happ. And that’s a solid selection. Happ is an all-star and gold glove winner in LF. No issues with anyone who thinks he can play second base. I hope he can. That would be awesome for his profile, but I think he slides to the OF.

 

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CaliforniaRaisin

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chc.png&h=60&w=60

13. Chicago Cubs

Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR)

I've heard the Cubs linked to prep infielder Kevin McGonigle and this is probably the top spot where Florida RHP Hurston Waldrep is in play (who has some similarities to Chicago's first rounder last year, Cade Horton). Some scouts also think Tommy Troy and Shaw are targets here. Meyer, however, has one of the best collection of pitcher traits in recent memory, with other recent comps to him going at least this high. He has true frontline potential but isn't as polished at this stage as some of the other elite prep arms that have traits of that caliber: Mick Abel, Andrew Painter, Jackson Jobe and Dylan Lesko.

 

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On 5/30/2023 at 10:11 AM, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Don’t love prep RHPs in the 1st, but can’t argue the ceiling isn’t there. Could be worse.

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1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Raisan - Law has Nimmala at 8

I vote we make this name change permanent

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CaliforniaRaisin

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I

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13. Cubs — Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy, Andover, Mass.

Like Meyer, White had plenty of attention with teams picking inside the top 10, but an erratic final start of the season could have him wind up somewhere in the middle of the first round instead of the top third. There are a number of teams who seem to be excited about White and the Cubs are one of them, though this range of the draft also has a number of interesting bats on the board. Aidan Miller is another name that’s interesting here.

Arjun Nimmala went 23, Aidan Miller 33.

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Transmogrified Tiger

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Does anyone know what the big knock is against Brayden Taylor?  I've read good things about his swing and batted ball data, the results seem strong(and he's kicking it up a notch against better competition since the regular season), and it doesn't seem by body type or scouting blurbs that he's a risk of moving off 3B(though maybe not a plus there).  

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4 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Below avg EVs IIRC made the rounds during preseason but I haven't seen or looked for anything since

It was exit velocities entering the season. They were pretty low, but this season has been different. He sacrificed contact for drive earlier in the year. In the last few weeks, Taylor has brought the qualities together. He doesn’t chase, his in-zone contact has improved, and he’s still driving the ball. This year he’s taken his avg EVs from 87 to 91 mph. Big difference.

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CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

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I always pay attention when Callis links players to the Cubs because he clearly is in the know.

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13. Cubs: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS, Dover, Fla. (No. 9)
The Cubs would love a shot at Lowder and could consider Waldrep, either of whom would be the fourth college pitcher they've taken in the last five first rounds. They’re mulling several prep infielders (Nimmala, Houck, Miller, Emerson, Kevin McGonigle) and could be drawn to Taylor, Maryland shortstop Matt Shaw, Gonzalez or Bradfield.

 

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CaliforniaRaisin

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8 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Seems notable that Troy isn't in that list of college bats he's tying to them.

That’s possibly because Troy’s season is still going on and those other guys are in their offseason and free to meet with teams.

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Transmogrified Tiger

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58 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

That’s possibly because Troy’s season is still going on and those other guys are in their offseason and free to meet with teams.

Maybe, but Taylor is listed and he's still playing too.

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Transmogrified Tiger

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Longenhagen updated his draft rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2023-mlb-draft

Of note for players who could make it to the Cubs, Dollander, Lowder, and Troy get 50 grades, and Lowder, Wilson, Teel, Meyer, and Morales are 45+.  His quick write up on the update had this which is Cubs-relevant (emphasis mine):

 

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Scouts and executives tend to think this is a rather strong, if incomplete, draft class. The high schoolers in this year’s crop are especially talented and deep. There will likely be high-upside high schoolers available after the end of the second round, which probably means there will be a handful of them who end up going to school, strengthening the draft class three years from now, too. Major League Baseball doesn’t scale the league-wide bonus pool up and down based on the quality of the class — there’s only so much money to go around — and this year there are probably more good high schoolers than there is money to pay them to skip school. Teams with comp picks after the second round are sitting pretty and will have access to more talent with those picks than usual. The high school position players, especially the infielders, are particularly deep.

 

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CaliforniaRaisin

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13. Chicago Cubs – Colin Houck, SS, Parkview High (Lilburn, Ga.)

Houck and Aidan Miller apparently had great workouts for the Cubs recently, adding their names to a mix that also includes that same college hitter group, notably Shaw and Troy.

Law being a bit more explicit than Callis on who has worked out for the Cubs.

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CaliforniaRaisin

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New Kiley mock: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/37914283/2023-mlb-mock-draft-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-top-picks

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13. Chicago Cubs

Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS (Florida)

Nimmala, the youngest of the prep position players, has been wowing teams in private workouts, consistently posting the best exit velos and with probably the best shot to stick at shortstop of those players, as well. The Cubs are rumored to be on that train of thought and have proved they don't mind some risk in young hitters if it comes with upside. I think they want to pick a hitter here, but I wonder if Meyer, Dollander or Waldrep will interest them -- they all have traits the Cubs have sought.

 

Kiley has Skenes 1 and Crews 2.

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