2021 Offseason Thread

[Tryptamine]

Cal Quantrill or Aaron Civale both interest me. I don't think McKenzie's arm holds up as a starter.

[sneakypower]

trying to think through possible ways this team can be salvaged after each new signing passes

 

[Tim]

Let's say, just for argument, the team adds Correa and Stroman, and then limits themselves to 1 year depth signings. Let's say Danny Duffy, Brad Miller, and Tommy Pham, because those are the 1 year guys I like most.

 

2022 Payroll is ~$185M

Team projects to ~85 wins

 

Lineup:

 

RF - Pham

LF - Happ

SS - Correa

1B - Schwindel

DH - Miller

C - Contreras

2B - Madrigal

3B - Wisdom

CF - Ortega

 

BN - Hoerner, Gomes, Ramirez, Heyward

 

SP:

 

Stroman

Hendricks

Duffy

Miley

Alzolay/Steele

 

Next winter, payroll is ~$160M at the outset of the offseason, and all you've lost to FA are Miley, Contreras, Pham, Miller, and Duffy. Meanwhile, barring major injury Davis and Kilian have made their MLB debuts.

 

This isn't 2019, adding a big deal or even two no longer paints Jed into a corner. Take a big swing dude.

Stars & Scrubs has the advantage of being easier to upgrade in the future. But I would hate to spend that much money and still go into next season with Wisdom, Ortega, Schwindel, Miller and Pham as 5/9ths of the starting lineup.

[Bertz]

Stars & Scrubs has the advantage of being easier to upgrade in the future. But I would hate to spend that much money and still go into next season with Wisdom, Ortega, Schwindel, Miller and Pham as 5/9ths of the starting lineup.

 

That's why the team still only projects at ~85 wins. That said, Steamer thinks those latter three are all better than league average hitters, and the former two would have Hoerner and Davis breathing pretty hard down their necks. Even with adding Correa the middle of the order is a little light, but on the flip side you're not giving many PAs to bad hitters. It's a very Oakland-y lineup.

[Tim]

Stars & Scrubs has the advantage of being easier to upgrade in the future. But I would hate to spend that much money and still go into next season with Wisdom, Ortega, Schwindel, Miller and Pham as 5/9ths of the starting lineup.

 

That's why the team still only projects at ~85 wins. That said, Steamer thinks those latter three are all better than league average hitters, and the former two would have Hoerner and Davis breathing pretty hard down their necks. Even with adding Correa the middle of the order is a little light, but on the flip side you're not giving many PAs to bad hitters. It's a very Oakland-y lineup.

I don't have a ton of confidence in Ortega or Wisdom for next year. I am unrealistically confident Schwindel will be a better than average hitter, but I don't know that he'll be enough above average to justify being a full-time 1B. I think all those guys were at their 90-95th percentiles of performance last year and I doubt they come near repeating that in 2022. Hoerner is needed to rotate in elsewhere. Heyward does give us additional depth in the OF, but I'm not sure Davis is really ready yet. That 30% strikeout rate in AA still worries me. Getting back down to 22% in his 68 AAA PA helps mitigate that, but he might still need some seasoning.

[Bertz]

 

Cubs were at 37 this AM, added Gomes, and have now removed Hermosillo and Megill. The latter two were pre-arb, so really only something to do if you need the roster spots...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Cubs were at 37 this AM, added Gomes, and have now removed Hermosillo and Megill. The latter two were pre-arb, so really only something to do if you need the roster spots...

 

hmm

 

 

EDIT: They may also be readying to jump very quickly on some non-tenders

[cl smooth]

[cl smooth]

[Bertz]

 

Cubs were at 37 this AM, added Gomes, and have now removed Hermosillo and Megill. The latter two were pre-arb, so really only something to do if you need the roster spots...

 

hmm

 

 

EDIT: They may also be readying to jump very quickly on some non-tenders

 

Wendle would fit this roster like a glove, there's a big need for LHH infield help.

 

But yeah they're going to do something else today or tomorrow. Otherwise you'd wait until post lockout to dump those two.

[UMFan83]

 

Cubs were at 37 this AM, added Gomes, and have now removed Hermosillo and Megill. The latter two were pre-arb, so really only something to do if you need the roster spots...

 

hmm

 

 

EDIT: They may also be readying to jump very quickly on some non-tenders

 

Shouldn't we just figure out who the Rays want in return then close up trade talks and sign those players to extensions?

[Tim]

Rex Brothers signs with Milwaukee.

[Bertz]

 

There's one spot

[Tim]

Good depth guy, but pretty redundant and doesn't move the needle much at this point.

[Post Count Padder]

I mean if there's a DH and he hits like he did 2019-20 then I'm a fan. Worth a shot.

[Rob]

I don't understand how he's as bad afield as he is. Is he just taking esoteric routes, a la Gary Sheffield?

[UMFan83]

I mean if there's a DH and he hits like he did 2019-20 then I'm a fan. Worth a shot.

 

Yeah I like it a lot. Great 2020 with the SSS caveats and then a terrible 2021, was once a top prospect. If it works out, its a huge addition for us, if it doesn't we can cut bait easily. These are the types of moves we should be making if we're not going to go after top FAs.

[squally1313]

I mean if there's a DH and he hits like he did 2019-20 then I'm a fan. Worth a shot.

Didn't we just slot Contreras into the DH spot for like half the year? Are we just going to run a Frazier/Contreras/Rivas/Schwindel platoon at this position that may or may not exist?

[Bertz]

The Cubs are doing much better about diversifying the lineup, which I really appreciate.

 

- Happ and Frazier are both super patient, with some swing and miss

 

- Madrigal's frankly a unicorn in terms of contact. Schwindel is pretty extreme himself for someone with power

 

- Wisdom is probably the most extreme launch angle guy in the league

 

- Madrigal led the league in going opposite field last year. Hoerner was in the top 30

 

- Hoerner is a fairly unique combination of patience and contact rates

 

- Aside from Wisdom and Frazier, most of the more questionable hitters on the roster look platoonable

 

Clearly, you'd rather have a more talented lineup. However, after seven years of having 7 guys all with the same approach and Javy, it's nice to see this lineup diversity. It should prevent the extreme hot and cold spells we saw with the last group. It's also part of why I'm bullish on this group if you spend some actual resources and supplement them.

[mias_tisg]

Clearly, you'd rather have a more talented lineup. However, after seven years of having 7 guys all with the same approach and Javy, it's nice to see this lineup diversity. It should prevent the extreme hot and cold spells we saw with the last group. It's also part of why I'm bullish on this group if you spend some actual resources and supplement them.

People just want to run the same team back year after year when they failed together for 3 years. As long as the Cubs are spending money on this group the next few years, we'll all find new favorite Cubs to enjoy.

[Post Count Padder]

The Marlins just traded Kameron Misner to the Rays for Joey Wendle. That seems like a steep price to pay or has Misner not done as well since the draft?

[Cubswin11]

Nice trade, Marlins

 

[17 Seconds]

Nice trade, Marlins

 

 

at least the brewers were the ones to pay for the awful extension

[Post Count Padder]

Tigers no tendered Matthew Boyd. Go get him.

[Post Count Padder]

We non tendered Jason Adam.