2021 Offseason Thread

[Hrubes20]

 

I've never seen McNeil play 3B, but I'm guessing from all the run JD Martinez has gotten at the position the last few years tells me all I need to know. That said, if he's a reasonable option at the position he fits the Cubs' roster like a glove.

 

Zero interest in McNeil with all the locker room problems he brings.

 

Is there more than just the Lindor thing that happened last year? Because that was actually more Lindor than McNeil.

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR: Kyle Seager Announces Retirement

[cl smooth]

From MLBTR: Kyle Seager Announces Retirement

 

[Bertz]

From MLBTR: Kyle Seager Announces Retirement

 

 

Welp. Even though he's pretty average at this point he was a really good fit on our roster. LH good defensive 3B is fairly rare, and checks several boxes.

[Tryptamine]

 

I've never seen McNeil play 3B, but I'm guessing from all the run JD Martinez has gotten at the position the last few years tells me all I need to know. That said, if he's a reasonable option at the position he fits the Cubs' roster like a glove.

 

Zero interest in McNeil with all the locker room problems he brings.

 

Is there more than just the Lindor thing that happened last year? Because that was actually more Lindor than McNeil.

 

Beyond the physical altercation with Lindor, apparently he has ignored coaches defensive shifts on a number of occasions.

[Cubswin11]

https://twitter.com/mlbrumorzz/status/1486179984825745409?s=21

[Bertz]

I'm torn. On the one hand he's a phenomenal fit in the immediate term, and this team is not in a place to be turning down talent. On the other hand he's not proven talent, and a lot of the team is already built on guys who should probably provide some solid productiin but the error bars are super wide. Also beyond the immediate term "RHH outfielder who's maybe kind of a tweener defensively" is something that we have in spades down on the farm.

 

It's also been a bit of a rough go on NPB and KBO hitters the last five years. Ohtani is a I think the only good player in a while, and he's obviously a unicorn (and came over way younger which may have helped). I kind of wonder if the velocity spike in MLB has significantly lowered the odds of guys successfully transitioning compared to 10-15 years ago?

 

So like, spend money, but ideally somewhere else?

[Tim]

The players should be prioritizing the draft pick compensation as part of the CBA negotiations. Let the team losing a player get a comp pick, great. But don't penalize the team signing an FA.

 

Conforto would be absolutely perfect for this roster. But I don't think the Cubs are willing to lose the draft pick to get him.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

The players should be prioritizing the draft pick compensation as part of the CBA negotiations. Let the team losing a player get a comp pick, great. But don't penalize the team signing an FA.

 

Conforto would be absolutely perfect for this roster. But I don't think the Cubs are willing to lose the draft pick to get him.

I agree. Don’t punish a team for signing someone. Eliminate the stupid small market picks and turn them into compensatory picks for losing someone of note.

[Cubswin11]

The players should be prioritizing the draft pick compensation as part of the CBA negotiations. Let the team losing a player get a comp pick, great. But don't penalize the team signing an FA.

 

Conforto would be absolutely perfect for this roster. But I don't think the Cubs are willing to lose the draft pick to get him.

Yup, just do a round between the first and second or second and third with additional picks for teams but don’t take picks away from teams. And yeah I’ve always liked Conforto and think he’d be an awesome add/fit for the team.

[Tryptamine]

The players should be prioritizing the draft pick compensation as part of the CBA negotiations. Let the team losing a player get a comp pick, great. But don't penalize the team signing an FA.

 

Conforto would be absolutely perfect for this roster. But I don't think the Cubs are willing to lose the draft pick to get him.

I agree. Don’t punish a team for signing someone. Eliminate the stupid small market picks and turn them into compensatory picks for losing someone of note.

 

The Cardinals getting competitive advantage picks is definitely in my top 5 most irritating things in baseball.

[UMFan83]

The players should be prioritizing the draft pick compensation as part of the CBA negotiations. Let the team losing a player get a comp pick, great. But don't penalize the team signing an FA.

 

Conforto would be absolutely perfect for this roster. But I don't think the Cubs are willing to lose the draft pick to get him.

I agree. Don’t punish a team for signing someone. Eliminate the stupid small market picks and turn them into compensatory picks for losing someone of note.

 

The Cardinals getting competitive advantage picks is definitely in my top 5 most irritating things in baseball.

 

The fact that the entire NL Central besides the Cubs get picks drives me nuts, especially because the Cubs arguably don't use their competitive advantage of being a rich large market team often enough.

[Tim]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/02/trade-candidate-anthony-santander.html

 

I like the fit and the player enough for a small trade, not sure the O's would be looking for so much maybe like a Made or Franklin. He's a switch hitter with experience at all 3 OF spots, has some power, didn't K so much in the minors, 28 next year, 3 years of sweet powerful control, cheap...Ideally a support move to go with a big FA bat or two but also don't think the trade cost would hurt Rebuild 2.0 so much either way

I don't think I'd give up either of those guys for Santander.

[Tryptamine]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/02/trade-candidate-anthony-santander.html

 

I like the fit and the player enough for a small trade, not sure the O's would be looking for so much maybe like a Made or Franklin. He's a switch hitter with experience at all 3 OF spots, has some power, didn't K so much in the minors, 28 next year, 3 years of sweet powerful control, cheap...Ideally a support move to go with a big FA bat or two but also don't think the trade cost would hurt Rebuild 2.0 so much either way

I don't think I'd give up either of those guys for Santander.

 

Yeah, I have zero interest in a guy with a career .290 obp unless he has other elite tools, Santander doesn't.

[Bertz]

There is literally nothing this team needs less than another second division starter type for the corner outfield/DH mix

[CubinNY]

BN is on a leaked story that the Cubs are going to make an offer for Rizzo when the lock-out is over. I have an irrational love of Rizzo and think he'd be a great fit for this team, but even I don't think the Cubs are serious in their pursuit.

 

[UMFan83]

BN is on a leaked story that the Cubs are going to make an offer for Rizzo when the lock-out is over. I have an irrational love of Rizzo and think he'd be a great fit for this team, but even I don't think the Cubs are serious in their pursuit.

 

 

They could be if its a short term deal. The Cubs still have a gigantic lack of left handed hitters and the ones they have are not power bats (Heyward, Ortega, Diechmann, Alcantara). Doesn't mean it has to be Rizzo but he would be an option at a position where we can improve. The problem more than his bat IMO is that his defense swan dived last year. I didn't watch a ton of post-deadline Cubs but when I did I continually saw issues defensively at 1B so we need to get better there. Also his recurring back issues make him unreliable so we'd need a backup option to pair with him.

 

Also, I don't think his sentimental status as a former Cub moves Jed at all but his leadership qualities might (outside of the whole vaccination issues).

 

Finally, its very possible he blew all his money on NFT's and will be desperate to take the first contract offered to him after the deadline.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There are 33 1B with 500+ PA since the start of 2020. Rizzo is 21st in wOBA and 23rd in wRC+. Yes his defense helps a little, but when you add in age, injury, and lack of positional flexibility, I don't see a great reason to use scarce resources on him.

[Backtobanks]

BN is on a leaked story that the Cubs are going to make an offer for Rizzo when the lock-out is over. I have an irrational love of Rizzo and think he'd be a great fit for this team, but even I don't think the Cubs are serious in their pursuit.

 

 

They could be if its a short term deal. The Cubs still have a gigantic lack of left handed hitters and the ones they have are not power bats (Heyward, Ortega, Diechmann, Alcantara). Doesn't mean it has to be Rizzo but he would be an option at a position where we can improve. The problem more than his bat IMO is that his defense swan dived last year. I didn't watch a ton of post-deadline Cubs but when I did I continually saw issues defensively at 1B so we need to get better there. Also his recurring back issues make him unreliable so we'd need a backup option to pair with him.

 

Also, I don't think his sentimental status as a former Cub moves Jed at all but his leadership qualities might (outside of the whole vaccination issues).

 

Finally, its very possible he blew all his money on NFT's and will be desperate to take the first contract offered to him after the deadline.

 

I don't remember where I saw it, but someone speculated he might end up with 2 years/$20 million. Signing him certainly makes more sense than giving up any players for Ahmed, Gregorious, etc. because they don't trust Hoerner to do the job.

[Bertz]

I think, clearly, the Cubs #1 priority coming out of the break should be a shortstop. That said, they need a second bat as well, and it's a little less clear what that guy should look like.

 

- Ideally he'd be left handed

- Ideally he'd be a power bat

- Ideally he'd be provide coverage defensively at 3B

 

With Kyle Seager retiring, Brad Miller and Jonathan Villar are the best FAs who check all of those boxes. And both come with plenty of limitations. So whoever the Cubs get is not going to be a fantastic fit. Rizzo would be probably the best offensive option, and while he does zero for you at 3B, he's the best defensive 1B option as well.

 

I think I'd prefer other guys' imperfect positional flexibility over Rizzo's heftier bat, but I get it if Jed disagrees. Like this is a fun lineup, and a very strong IF defense:

 

2B - Madrigal

1B - Rizzo

C - Contreras

SS - Correa

LF - Happ

DH - Schwindel

3B - Wisdom

CF - Hoerner

RF - Heyward/Ortega/Hermosillo/Frazier

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That said, they need a second bat as well, and it's a little less clear what that guy should look like.

 

- Ideally he'd be left handed

- Ideally he'd be a power bat

- Ideally he'd be provide coverage defensively at 3B

 

With Kyle Seager retiring, Brad Miller and Jonathan Villar are the best FAs who check all of those boxes. And both come with plenty of limitations.

 

He isn't a FA and has limitations of his own, but I'd add Moustakas to this list, since he's likely to be as easy to acquire as a FA if they want to.

[jersey cubs fan]

He would be the least useful of the departing Cubs to return to the team so that makes perfect sense

[Tryptamine]

He would be the least useful of the departing Cubs to return to the team so that makes perfect sense

 

It's a slightly less egregious Jake Arrieta move. If it's a one year deal then I suppose it doesn't matter because they weren't going to compete in 2022 anyway.

[Bertz]

 

I think I've mentioned him previously, but I really like Carlos Martinez for this team if he's cool being a reliever. He was a monster out of the pen for the Cardinals in '18 and '19, and while I'd hope it doesn't come to it he'd be an option as SP depth too.

[Tim]

I find myself trying to avoid doing more actual work this evening, so, here is offseason plan #54:

 

Assumption #1: Try to be at least a fringe playoff team in 2022

Assumption #2: Avoid the QO if at all possible

Assumption #3: Try to spend "smart" in FA

Assumption #4: Roughly $50M to spend, leaving $10M for veteran relievers

Assumption #5: Universal DH starts in 2022

 

Let's assume we need to fill the following spots: SS, OF, RP, 3B, 1B/DH, SP Depth

 

Top FA not tied to QO (MLBTR rankings with estimated contracts):

#4: Kris Bryant (6/$160)

#15: Kyle Schwarber (4/$70)

#18: Carlos Rodon (1/$25)

#20: Seiya Suzuki (5/$55)

#21: Anthony Rizzo (3/$45)

#25: Jorge Soler (3/$36) -- as an aside, most of the players on the list to this point are recent Cubs

#29: Kenley Jansen (2/$26)

#34: Yusei Kikuchi (2/$20)

#41: Eddie Rosario (2/$15)

#43: Jonathan Villar (2/$14)

#45: Ryan Tepera (2/$12)

#47: Nelson Cruz (1/$12)

#48: Danny Duffy (1/$10)

 

Ideally, I'm looking for around four position players to create a really deep roster, but three players would probably suffice. I'd really like to bring Schwarber home to provide a bit of lefty thump in the lineup. Add on Seiya Suzuki at $11M and Villar at $7M. That's around $36M of my $50M budget.

 

Given the remaining budget, I'd seriously look to add Kikuchi to the rotation. I'll assume the Cubs do their usual excellent job finding arms for the bullpen at a reasonable cost.

 

That gives something like:

SP: Stroman

SP: Hendricks

SP: Miley

SP: Kikuchi

SP: Alzolay / Steele / Mills / Thompson

 

2B: Madrigal

SS: Villar

1B: Schwindel

DH: Schwarber

OF: Suzuki

OF: Happ

C: Contreras

3B: Wisdom

OF: Ortega / Frazier

Bench: Hoerner, Hermosillo, Ramirez, Bote, Gomes

 

That provides a kinda deep lineup with some solid thump...if Schwindel can provide better than league average production at 1B. If he doesn't, it's probably the cheapest position to fill at the deadline if they're in contention. Also, Rivas can probably come in and provide at least a decent OBP and defense at first base in the short term if Frank tanks. Assuming Wisdom turns back into a pumpkin, then Hoerner becomes a full-time starter on the IF and Alcantara comes back as a backup. Sometime this summer, Davis probably takes over CF and replaces the Ortega/Frazier platoon.

 

That team...won't even compete in a fairly weak NL Central. The rotation should keep them in most games and has depth available with the various options at the fifth spot plus Kilian later in the year. I even have my doubts about that, though, after Hendrick's meltdown and the Kyle Davies experience last year. The older rookies from last year are probably the most likely gaps in the lineup. If the budget is available, maybe add Brad Miller as insurance in case Wisdom completely craps the bed.

 

Assuming things don't work, then Miley, Kikuchi and Villar would all be pieces to move at the deadline to get a return.