So...Now What?

[soccer10k]

What's the realistic bottom out for this roster here on out as far as draft standing?

Going to be tough to tank at least one day of every five as long as Hendricks is pitching.

 

I know they won today but a 2-1 loss is always in the cards with this offense.

[toonsterwu]

They seem fairly clear that they aren't going to go the multi-year tank route, but it also wouldn't be prudent for them to spend on top of the line big-ticket items. I think

 

a) The most likely route is that they see how their youngsters develop. The system is rebuilt, but it's rebuilt to the extent of having some high impact, farther away players, so the risk level is still high (I mean, 5 of our main guys are at least 3 years away in Howard, Preciado, Hernandez, Crow-Armstrong, Alcantara). Stronger draft positioning next year will help, but there still isn't much in the way of strong pitching talent that's really close. They'll let things develop, spend on some FA pitching gambles (A lot of reasonable gambles out there, but reasonable gambles are guys coming off struggles, like Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney, and maybe even Jose Quintana). Shop Willson Contreras this offseason, as well as Kyle Hendricks (winter or next deadline). Focus the draft on high level pitching talent in the early rounds, if possible (obviously take the best player possible, but if it's a close, the nod should go to the arm).

 

In this scenario, you hope Brennen Davis is showing well in the major leagues at the end of 2022, and Madrigal/Hoerner make for a solid MI combination and top of the order. At this point, maybe you get aggressive on the FA market. The problem with this is, at first glance, the post-2022 FA market doesn't look all that great. Some of the better younger guys seem to be Benintendi and uh ... ? The poor man's Baez (joke ... but referencing Dansby Swanson). I guess the main guys would be Buxton, Gallo, and Trea Turner, along with Jose Berrios, Taijuan Walker. Gary Sanchez. Sean Manaea. Some options and opt-out guys. It's not a great class. I believe they said the post-2023 class looks good on the pitching side.

 

b) So ... I've been wondering, since it's a relatively young and interesting FA class, could they actually get somewhat aggressive this offseason? I think a lot may depend on how the youngsters show the rest of the year (in the majors and the minors). That said, a lot of money has been cleared. At this point, there's no real need to ponder moving Heyward's contract off, as you'd need to attach prospect talent to it, which is not worth it now. Maybe if the team improves this year, they could contemplate moving the final year off for some savings, but not this winter.

 

Still, the FA class is intriguing this winter. There's the obvious - the SS's, Arenado/KB. (I expect Arenado to opt-out). Then, there's some young-ish pitching like Stroman, Gausman, Robbie Ray. There's the young-ish guys that have struggled, like Bundy, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Andrew Heaney and offensively, Conforto.

 

I don't think they'll be the first guy out of the gate, so to speak. That said, it seems possible a few of those guys might not find their market early on. If the Cubs feel confident about Madrigal and/or Hoerner in the near future, could they make a splash if someone's market comes down? You add a power hitting infielder at SS or 3rd, add say, Conforto, and some pitching gambles ... this looks like a somewhat competitive team without busting the budget.

 

Or if the Cubs really wanted to get bold, they'd go out and sign, as much as I don't like him, someone like Carlos Correa down for big dollars as the anchor to the next cycle, add some cheap gambles, and hope their guys develop.

 

Edit: Are the Cubs only major commitments for 2022 Heyward and Hendricks? Arrieta's going to be turned down. Everything else is arb or pre-arb? Oh, wait, there's Bote. Still, that's a lot of money to play with.

 

It's hard to imagine them spending on two big ticket items, but it feels like they could go get ... Correa (not that I really love him, but his age and performance matters, along with his stated willingness to go to 3rd at some point) and maybe take a pitching gamble or two. Try to trade for a team that may shop a starter (not sure who ... just hypothetically) for either cost purposes now (or because they might hit FA later - don't know why I keep going back to Oakland and Sean Manaea.) See if some positional assets price comes down/is cheap (keep going to Conforto because of his struggles). The NL Central isn't overwhelming, so suddenly, that's a reasonably competitive squad with a much improved system that still has a draft to add to it.

[toonsterwu]

I don't know if I see them going after Hosmer now. We're almost out of the woods of our big contracts, and Hosmer is what, 18 million for 4 more years. Hassell's safer than some of our kids, but I don't know - I don't want them to have a new "Heyward" crutch now that the system has been restocked somewhat, with an impending draft to add to it.

 

Was trying to slap together a plan, but then I came to the realization that, boy, it's tough to figure out 3rd base. My idea would be to spend big on Correa now (only one I would spend big on now ... even Seagar, I would hope for the market to come down). That said, without going overboard in FA signings (I did mildly wonder about the Seagar/Seagar combination), it's hard to figure out 3rd, outside of slapping Wisdom in there. Wisdom is probably fine as an option, but was really trying to think of anyone else.

 

Thought about Buxton/Donaldson in some package. That said, the Twins claim to want to compete next year, and I don't see how they do it moving one of them. If they want to rebuild, then sure, that makes sense. The other thought was maybe the Marlins might move Brian Anderson. Perhaps Wisdom is the best option to slap there. Honestly, the other thought was first base. I don't suspect they'll sign two new guys, so Wisdom at 1 of them does make sense.

 

I think I'd try to trade for a pitcher moreso than any interesting positional asset. Still go back to Oakland - Manaea is a FA in 1 year. I wonder if they might sell high on him. You add that with 1 or 2 FA gambles and a mid-tier starter (is Eduardo Rodriguez mid-tier? Organizations are all modernized now, but still hard for me to think he's a big ticket item coming off the raw numbers, and I'd go with that along with Hendricks/Alzolay.

 

I would avoid older guys unless they are "on-sale". There's an argument to be made to go after big ticket pitching items, but Correa's youth and power, plus a willingness to eventually move to 3rd, is just the perfect mix. If the Cubs decide to spend a lot more than this, then it's a lot easier, obviously. Goal isn't to win now - goal is to get the window open by 2023, let the youngsters develop, and keep the sheets clean enough that if Juan Soto hits FA, you go all-out in the winter of 2024 to get him.

 

Edit: Just read about the Marlins being open to discuss young pitching talent for a young positional asset. Looks like they want someone close to ready, so it's tough to figure out exactly how to get that, as I'm not moving Brennen in a trade for Max Meyer. Would be interesting to try and find something they want to spin for a top young arm, but it's probably a bit difficult to find a match.

 

Boy, that hypothetical Marsh/Meyer trade, had it happened, would've been fascinating.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The more that I try to game this out, the more that I think the front office’s belief in Hoerner is the key to this offseason. Jed’s statements make it pretty clear that Baez would have been traded regardless of the readiness of his replacement, so to me there’s 3 main paths that all seem reasonable today:

 

- The FO sees Hoerner as a SS, he has experience with the position and his elite 2B defense gives optimism he will play fine there.

- The FO doesn’t rate Hoerner as a first division starter due to his ceiling, injury history, etc, so there’s no qualms about Madrigal being added because they saw 2B needing a playoff caliber upgrade

- The FO sees Hoerner as a modern utility man, adding more value than his raw productivity by being a capable player at several positions(2B, SS, CF, maybe LF)

 

As it relates to this offseason, the first option collides with some best case scenarios because the best way to add starpower this offseason is with a SS. Some of those guys could flex to 3rd eventually and Hoerner could play CF in the interim(which functionally is the same as the third option), but that would be a weird way to plant a flag on Nico’s SS ability, and it makes for some awkward fits in maximizing the current roster, especially with R/L balance. The second option can be the cleanest because Nico would be a great piece to get an early arb asset like an SP, but that does seem like the least likely interpretation, and it doesn’t change the net number of good players on the roster.

[Post Count Padder]

I like Hoerner a lot and believe he can handle SS fine. We were spoiled with one of the best for several years.

 

That said, signing Semien or another big SS and using Hoerner and Bote as super utility guys seems like a good way to go as well. Can still get Hoerner 350-400 PA that way (assuming health of course).

[UMFan83]

Since this is the main thread for the dismantling, has anyone used this site before? I’m not sure how they are calculating values but it’s interesting to look at the trades using this metric:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

 

It has the Cubs winning the Kimbrel, Javy and Rizzo trades, handily but losing the Bryant trade in terms of value given up/getting back

[toonsterwu]

Since this is the main thread for the dismantling, has anyone used this site before? I’m not sure how they are calculating values but it’s interesting to look at the trades using this metric:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

It has the Cubs winning the Kimbrel, Javy and Rizzo trades, handily but losing the Bryant trade in terms of value given up/getting back

 

I've seen the website bandied about. No idea how they make their calculations - I'm guessing it's fairly reasonable.

 

In terms of logic, I can agree with their opinions on all the trades. I don't particularly love Madrigal, but I get the value, and a half season of Javy for a recent first round pick, even injured is solid. Loved the Rizzo deal. Just did the reverse Marisnick trade to see what they would have it, and it's a win for getting Espinoza.

 

I get the opinion/valuation on the Bryant trade. I'd really love to know what other teams offered, but I could venture a guess that the Cubs really wanted to add some pitching so Killian made sense for them. He's a step behind the two the Rays got for Cruz in terms of development (and maybe ceiling, Joe Ryan looks fascinating). Still, not many quality arms got moved.

[Backtobanks]

Since this is the main thread for the dismantling, has anyone used this site before? I’m not sure how they are calculating values but it’s interesting to look at the trades using this metric:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

 

It has the Cubs winning the Kimbrel, Javy and Rizzo trades, handily but losing the Bryant trade in terms of value given up/getting back

 

It's interesting, but speculating about prospects future value while comparing it to guys who have actually played well in the ML is questionable.

[Bull]

Since this is the main thread for the dismantling, has anyone used this site before? I’m not sure how they are calculating values but it’s interesting to look at the trades using this metric:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

 

It has the Cubs winning the Kimbrel, Javy and Rizzo trades, handily but losing the Bryant trade in terms of value given up/getting back

 

It's interesting, but speculating about prospects future value while comparing it to guys who have actually played well in the ML is questionable.

But that’s exactly what GMs have to do when making trades. Years of control x cost efficient x floor/ceiling vs reasonable expectation of somewhat predictable production x less years of control.

[mtkafka]

Someone sell me on our farm system and that we can compete by 2023. I just don't see it. They threw out the baby and the bathwater all the way since 2019 and haven't stopped. If this was a legitimate management/ownership then find ways to get rid of Heyward, find replacement level players for guys we lost in our rotation and in OF, but they barely did anything since the end of 2018. WTF!?! Now they expect to play cheap like the Rays? THIS IS A MAJOR MARKET TEAM. THEY SHOULD COMPETE EVERY YEAR.

 

No, its back to losing and wait til next year. At least in the 2000s, as bad as the organization was in the past, they really did want to win. This time I dont see it. I feel the management does not care. After there stupid Marquee network was released at a terrible tine, not our problem. They overspent on everything BUT the team on the field since 2018. Why should i give a horsefeathers for another rebuild? THIS IS A REBUILD. We have no core anymore.

[NOLA]

Just my two cents, but I mentioned before that Jed wanted the blow this thing up as soon as he got the job, and that 11 games losing streak just made it more palatable. The quotes I’ve read from him since the deadline make it sound like he doesn’t see any value in merely being sorta competitive, IMO. Next year looks like a punt to me.

[Bull]

Just my two cents, but I mentioned before that Jed wanted the blow this thing up as soon as he got the job, and that 11 games losing streak just made it more palatable. The quotes I’ve read from him since the deadline make it sound like he doesn’t see any value in merely being sorta competitive, IMO. Next year looks like a punt to me.

That’s what I’m seeing. But this time a one year (and two months) punt.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Bull

[CubinNY]

Just my two cents, but I mentioned before that Jed wanted the blow this thing up as soon as he got the job, and that 11 games losing streak just made it more palatable. The quotes I’ve read from him since the deadline make it sound like he doesn’t see any value in merely being sorta competitive, IMO. Next year looks like a punt to me.

The Billy Beane philosophy.

[NOLA]

Just my two cents, but I mentioned before that Jed wanted the blow this thing up as soon as he got the job, and that 11 games losing streak just made it more palatable. The quotes I’ve read from him since the deadline make it sound like he doesn’t see any value in merely being sorta competitive, IMO. Next year looks like a punt to me.

The Billy Beane philosophy.

Except Beane is in small market Oakland with an indifferent fan base.

[Backtobanks]

Just my two cents, but I mentioned before that Jed wanted the blow this thing up as soon as he got the job, and that 11 games losing streak just made it more palatable. The quotes I’ve read from him since the deadline make it sound like he doesn’t see any value in merely being sorta competitive, IMO. Next year looks like a punt to me.

That’s what I’m seeing. But this time a one year (and two months) punt.

 

We don't know what "allowance" PTR is going to give Jed to spend this offseason (or next for that matter), so we don't have any idea as to how long it might take.

[17 Seconds]

Just my two cents, but I mentioned before that Jed wanted the blow this thing up as soon as he got the job, and that 11 games losing streak just made it more palatable. The quotes I’ve read from him since the deadline make it sound like he doesn’t see any value in merely being sorta competitive, IMO. Next year looks like a punt to me.

That’s what I’m seeing. But this time a one year (and two months) punt.

 

We don't know what "allowance" PTR is going to give Jed to spend this offseason (or next for that matter), so we don't have any idea as to how long it might take.

 

 

ptr says we can have any toy up to $10, but we can split it and buy 2 toys that equal 10 if we want

[Tim]

If you want to talk certainty...

 

We don't even know for sure if there's going to be baseball next spring. This negotiation is going to be really acrimonious.

[Thusly Boned]

I don't expect the team to be competitive next year, but this pretty clearly isn't a 2011 situation, either. I think the team is at least decent again by 2023. Much depends on the approach this offseason, obviously, but I think the Kimbrel trade (whether you agree with the choice of players in the return or not) is a clear indicator that this isn't intended to be a total rebuild. You don't use your most valuable trade chip for current MLB talent if that is the case. You also don't hang onto Hendricks in burn it to the ground mode.

 

As many others have said, the problem isn't that the core was broken up, but that it was broken up too late (much of that is on Theo). It sure would have been nice to see at least one of these guys extended, but the notion that all of them were going to ride into the sunset as Cubs was romantic, unrealistic, and would have been poor management. Given where the team was, what transpired was, though unpleasant in the extreme, absolutely the right thing. The mistakes that led to this distasteful place were made before this year.

 

Not even the biggest of the big market teams hold on to their entire cores forever. What should have happened is that a couple members of the core should have been dealt while they still had years of control, for a larger return. I personally would have traded Bryant (based on my personal belief that he was destined to leave regardless, likely for a West coast team) after 2018, traded Schwarber after 2019 (and re-signed Castellanos).

 

But water under thr bridge now.

 

I genuinely don't know how this offseason will go. I see a few possibilities:

 

1. The front office largely sits and sees how the existing talent develops in 2022, maybe dealing off Hendricks and Contreras. I see this as the least likely possibility.

 

2. The front office trades off some of the newly acquired talent for more MLB/MLB ready players in a quantity for quality play, but is quiet in FA.

 

3. The front office spends on some of the younger FA talent (Correa/Story/Seager) and a FA pitcher or two (Gray/Stroman/Bundy/etc.). Maybe Castellanos opts out and we bring him back.

 

4. A combination of 2 and 3.

 

I can see a few realistic permutations where the team next year isn't bad, and pretty good in 2023.

[toonsterwu]

Someone sell me on our farm system and that we can compete by 2023. I just don't see it. They threw out the baby and the bathwater all the way since 2019 and haven't stopped. If this was a legitimate management/ownership then find ways to get rid of Heyward, find replacement level players for guys we lost in our rotation and in OF, but they barely did anything since the end of 2018. WTF!?! Now they expect to play cheap like the Rays? THIS IS A MAJOR MARKET TEAM. THEY SHOULD COMPETE EVERY YEAR.

 

No, its back to losing and wait til next year. At least in the 2000s, as bad as the organization was in the past, they really did want to win. This time I dont see it. I feel the management does not care. After there stupid Marquee network was released at a terrible tine, not our problem. They overspent on everything BUT the team on the field since 2018. Why should i give a horsefeathers for another rebuild? THIS IS A REBUILD. We have no core anymore.

 

I don't know how to make this not sound crass ... but there was no core before there was one.

 

Whether or not management cares, I don't know. I hope they do, but I don't know. I don't particularly care for Ricketts, but I've never been in a blame Ricketts mode. They made some moves that didn't pan out, traded some young talent that could've been a part of a new core, didn't develop well, and didn't draft well. Most teams that compete each year aren't the major market teams necessarily - they are the teams that identify talent well, whether through trades or the draft, and develop them.

 

I don't think anyone really anticipates this to be WS team by 2023. I know for me, I'm simply talking about opening the window (roughly speaking, let's call it above .500 and trying to push for a wild card). If we're honest, that'd be a fast rebuild, but it's doable. They just have to spend some of the money that they've traded away. If you get an anchor type piece in FA, that really opens the door up a bit.

 

That said, your general point is fair in that, the system itself won't deliver us to a competitive window in a year. Outside of Davis, many of the top guys are at least 2-3 years away

 

On Heyward - the amount of salary left in the early years meant getting rid of him was likely impossible. It might be possible now, but I don't see the point. You'd have to attach prospect capital to move him, if a team's willing, and it's not worth it now.

[Bertz]

I look to the Blue Jays and the Padres last winter for what I think makes the most sense for the Cubs' offseason. More the former than the latter.

 

The Blue Jays had basically a blank slate for payroll, and used that to fortify their team with one superstar and a bunch of 1-2 year deals for talented guys who had down a down 2020. The Padres also threw some money around, but mainly leaned on their epically farm system. They gutted the middle tier of their farm, but were able to bring in 3 TOR starters while only giving up one of their top 5 prospects. The Cubs have a similar payroll blank slate, and a similarly deep farm (though without that top tier like SD).

 

It's a little early to get hung up on specific players, or even specific positions of need, but broadly I'd like to see.

 

1. Sign one of the big boys at shortstop

2. Sign a RH OFer to help balance out the VERY lefty crop of OFersalready in house (Tommy Pham?)

3. Bring back Rizzo

4. Bring in a #2/#3 starter who will be around for multiple seasons. The rotation will probably need more love than this, but how well Mills/Steele/Thompson do from here out will determine exactly how much

 

I think all but the cheapest permutations of the above result in the Opening Day 2022 team being better than the OD 2021 squad. And unlike this year, the pen won't be the only part of the roster that can reasonably expect reinforcements from Iowa. It's not a world-beater of a team, but a solid wildcard/bad division contender. And with the arrow pointing up given the youth.

[toonsterwu]

I don't expect the team to be competitive next year, but this pretty clearly isn't a 2011 situation, either. I think the team is at least decent again by 2023. Much depends on the approach this offseason, obviously, but I think the Kimbrel trade (whether you agree with the choice of players in the return or not) is a clear indicator that this isn't intended to be a total rebuild. You don't use your most valuable trade chip for current MLB talent if that is the case. You also don't hang onto Hendricks in burn it to the ground mode.

 

As many others have said, the problem isn't that the core was broken up, but that it was broken up too late (much of that is on Theo). It sure would have been nice to see at least one of these guys extended, but the notion that all of them were going to ride into the sunset as Cubs was romantic, unrealistic, and would have been poor management. Given where the team was, what transpired was, though unpleasant in the extreme, absolutely the right thing. The mistakes that led to this distasteful place were made before this year.

 

Not even the biggest of the big market teams hold on to their entire cores forever. What should have happened is that a couple members of the core should have been dealt while they still had years of control, for a larger return. I personally would have traded Bryant (based on my personal belief that he was destined to leave regardless, likely for a West coast team) after 2018, traded Schwarber after 2019 (and re-signed Castellanos).

 

But water under thr bridge now.

 

I genuinely don't know how this offseason will go. I see a few possibilities:

 

1. The front office largely sits and sees how the existing talent develops in 2022, maybe dealing off Hendricks and Contreras. I see this as the least likely possibility.

 

2. The front office trades off some of the newly acquired talent for more MLB/MLB ready players in a quantity for quality play, but is quiet in FA.

 

3. The front office spends on some of the younger FA talent (Correa/Story/Seager) and a FA pitcher or two (Gray/Stroman/Bundy/etc.). Maybe Castellanos opts out and we bring him back.

 

4. A combination of 2 and 3.

 

I can see a few realistic permutations where the team next year isn't bad, and pretty good in 2023.

 

I can see number ... 5 being something like

 

a) Move Contreras to say, the Marlins, for an arm

b) Sign FA C (say Yan Gomes)

c) Make a trade or two for young-ish players (I'm growing enamored with my own "trade with Oakland" idea. Jed Lowrie is a FA, Logan Davidson has struggled, and Nick Allen could use a little more time, and he's more a SS anyways. Some sort of Hoerner swap makes sense)

d) Make a big signing (Correa) and some smaller signings (I still like Eduardo Rodriguez at the right price, heck, Jed Lowrie could slide in at 3rd).

[toonsterwu]

A case of sudden onset laryngitis left me bored as heck today, and I wasted a bunch of time looking at baseball stuff.

 

I don't really expect it to happen, but reading the random news today, I'm growing more enamored with the idea of shopping Hoerner ... and maybe even Madrigal. I'm specifically thinking the Marlins and Athletics here, both teams that could use a young MI. With the Marlins looking at C as well, I wonder what pitcher a Hoerner/Contreras package could potentially land. Of course, Hoerner could fit for the A's as well, with Jed Lowrie hitting FA again.

 

I'd rather not have to spend big on multiple arms. 1 maybe, and then take a flyer on 1 or 2.

[mtkafka]

Your core is your core. Its the best you have. If Rizzo, Bryant and Baez aren't good enough (and I am not blind to all there faults) then you better find replacements as good or better. That's what GMs are supposed to do. And the idea that all 3 of these guys were looking for 100s of millions of dollars... theres no evidence... and anyway that's there right to do.

 

Look at it this way, the Cubs as an organization look WORSE then they did pre2012. They look cheap, miserly and spendthrifts. They look unrealistic and in sell mode. More concern was paid to the effing Marquee Network than to the team itself it seems. Lets see how much they spend. Right now as it stands, The White Sox are miles above the Cubs as a team and organization. If I were a player I would NOT want to come to Chicago... unless it was the White Sox.

 

Expect 'rumors' of the Ricketts wanting to sell in a few months. DO IT. SELL, YOU BASTARDS.

[CubinNY]

A case of sudden onset laryngitis left me bored as heck today, and I wasted a bunch of time looking at baseball stuff.

 

I don't really expect it to happen, but reading the random news today, I'm growing more enamored with the idea of shopping Hoerner ... and maybe even Madrigal. I'm specifically thinking the Marlins and Athletics here, both teams that could use a young MI. With the Marlins looking at C as well, I wonder what pitcher a Hoerner/Contreras package could potentially land. Of course, Hoerner could fit for the A's as well, with Jed Lowrie hitting FA again.

 

I'd rather not have to spend big on multiple arms. 1 maybe, and then take a flyer on 1 or 2.

You're digging a deeper hole in another part of the yard with this idea.

[CubinNY]

It will be interesting to see what the attendance looks like when they get back to Chicago.