How do you fix the Cubs?

[UMFan83]

Sorry for anyone who clicked here hoping to see my plan. I’m not an ideas guy. But I am very interested in this topic. I have thought a lot about it and I have no horsefeathering clue how to fix the Cubs short and long term. The team is mediocre, is apparently maxed out on spending, all of their young talent that have proven to be quality big leaguers are out of here after 21(besides Contreras and Happ) so their value has dipped (not counting guys like Hendricks who issigned to post-arb contract). The farm system is still pretty meh and the team has shown very little ability to develop raw talent over the past 5 seasons.

 

I think this season is shot, next season is probably shot. They may be 85 win teams so I guess it could be worse but it’s not the team set up for success at all long term and after next year is ready to fall off a cliff if nothing is done. If you were Theo and you weren’t allowed to bolt (which could definitely happen), how would you change the course of the franchise around by 2022?

[The_Achiever]

Seems like we need a new Theo to come in and pull a Theo. 2 years of tanking and clearing the books and this whole thing could be built back up.

[UMFan83]

Seems like we need a new Theo to come in and pull a Theo. 2 years of tanking and clearing the books and this whole thing could be built back up.

 

So we need a better Theo then? Because it took him 3 years of tanking.

 

Or are you suggesting something that isn’t a complete gut? In that case which current Cubs are still on your roster in 2022?

 

These are the players on the current roster that are under contract for the 2022 season:

 

Heyward

Darvish

Hendricks

Bote

Contreras (Walk year)

Almora (Walk year)

Kyle Ryan

Rhea

Tepera

Hoerner

Alzolay

Caratini

And a bunch of less notable pre-arb pen and bench guys

 

Possible extension candidates:

 

Rizzo

Bryant

Baez

Schwarber

[champaignchris]

Seems like we need a new Theo to come in and pull a Theo. 2 years of tanking and clearing the books and this whole thing could be built back up.

 

So we need a better Theo then? Because it took him 3 years of tanking.

 

Or are you suggesting something that isn’t a complete gut? In that case which current Cubs are still on your roster in 2022?

 

These are the players on the current roster that are under contract for the 2022 season:

 

Heyward

Darvish

Hendricks

Bote

Contreras (Walk year)

Almora (Walk year)

Kyle Ryan

Rhea

Tepera

Hoerner

Alzolay

Caratini

And a bunch of less notable pre-arb pen and bench guys

 

Possible extension candidates:

 

Rizzo

Bryant

Baez

Schwarber

 

Happ seems like a pretty big omission here. He will be in his 2nd year of arbitration.

[UMFan83]

Seems like we need a new Theo to come in and pull a Theo. 2 years of tanking and clearing the books and this whole thing could be built back up.

 

So we need a better Theo then? Because it took him 3 years of tanking.

 

Or are you suggesting something that isn’t a complete gut? In that case which current Cubs are still on your roster in 2022?

 

These are the players on the current roster that are under contract for the 2022 season:

 

Heyward

Darvish

Hendricks

Bote

Contreras (Walk year)

Almora (Walk year)

Kyle Ryan

Rhea

Tepera

Hoerner

Alzolay

Caratini

And a bunch of less notable pre-arb pen and bench guys

 

Possible extension candidates:

 

Rizzo

Bryant

Baez

Schwarber

 

Happ seems like a pretty big omission here. He will be in his 2nd year of arbitration.

 

This is why I’m the ideas man! Yeah somehow missed him

[Bertz]

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. The Ricketts are not going to buy their way into fixing it. You also probably can't do a full teardown this winter, since the vast majority of owners are going to use Covid as cover to be cheap. So the two most obvious ways of addressing the situation are out.

 

My current thought is to trade Willson and Happ this winter. The two of them are likely due ~$10M combined, so they'll be very high in demand this winter. Now that he's a good framer, Willson is very comparable to JT Realmuto at the time the Phillies' acquired him. That was two top 100 prospects, one of whom was major league ready, and a couple other guys. I don't have a super great read on Happ's value, but I would think with the extra year of control but the shorter track record it'd be comparable?

 

Otherwise, you leave the rest of "the core" here for one last hurrah, filling in the gaps with the guys you bring back in trade and a bunch of short term guys (there's likely to be a small army of non-tenders this winter). The team's probably in a similar position to this year, with a mid 80's talent but a division that still leaves them modest favorites. Lack of depth means a pretty high bust potential, but also some very talented guys will all be in contract years, so they could still end up very dangerous.

 

Then next year as important as winning games is evaluation. Which (if any) of KB/Rizzo/Javy/Schwarber do you resign? After pressing pause for a year, how close are the reinforcements from the farm? Are Darvish and Kyle still awesome? Answers to these questions help decide whether this is a 1-2 year retool or a 3-4 year rebuild.

[The_Achiever]

Seems like we need a new Theo to come in and pull a Theo. 2 years of tanking and clearing the books and this whole thing could be built back up.

 

So we need a better Theo then? Because it took him 3 years of tanking.

 

Or are you suggesting something that isn’t a complete gut? In that case which current Cubs are still on your roster in 2022?

 

These are the players on the current roster that are under contract for the 2022 season:

 

Heyward

Darvish

Hendricks

Bote

Contreras (Walk year)

Almora (Walk year)

Kyle Ryan

Rhea

Tepera

Hoerner

Alzolay

Caratini

And a bunch of less notable pre-arb pen and bench guys

 

Possible extension candidates:

 

Rizzo

Bryant

Baez

Schwarber

 

There’s probably a bit more to work with this time, it could be done in 2.

 

Also isn’t Happ still under contract in 2022?

[Cubswin11]

Make the playoffs and win the World Series this year and who cares, imo

[Bote McBoteface]

Pay the other pitchers to throw our guys meatballs, that way they look like they’re as good as we thought they’d be.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Step 1: Fire Almora into the Sun

Step 2: ???

Step 3: Profit (but hopefully not for PTR)

[Backtobanks]

Find a new ownership group that would make an offer that PTR couldn't refuse.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Find a new ownership group that would make an offer that PTR couldn't refuse.

Should we pass a hat around and see where we are at?

[Andy]

Make the playoffs and win the World Series this year and who cares, imo

In a short series, a locked in Hendricks and Darvish can be deadly. I'm fairly bullish on our chances in the postseason, although admittedly it'll probably also take at minimum Kimbrel to be in badass mode.

[UMFan83]

Make the playoffs and win the World Series this year and who cares, imo

In a short series, a locked in Hendricks and Darvish can be deadly. I'm fairly bullish on our chances in the postseason, although admittedly it'll probably also take at minimum Kimbrel to be in badass mode.

 

About that...

[17 Seconds]

you don't

[CyHawk_Cub]

mess with

[UMFan83]

As far as payroll moving forward...MLBTRs got them committed to as little as $54 million by 2022 and less than $100 million going into next year. They're something like 14th in committed payroll over the next 5 years. Between the owners and their schills getting to cry more poor than usual, seemingly planning to flood the FA market this year, I think there's going to be way too much talent available at prices well below what they'd be worth even in the dying pre-COVID amateur and FA markets to not be buyers

 

I mean that’s great and all but most of that money coming off the books is basically our team. Meaning we won’t have spending money to supplement the holes on our roster, we will need all that money to build a roster because our farm system hasn’t produced horsefeathers recently. If the Ricketts family insists on a spending cap, the Cubs either need to develop talent or hit nearly 100% on their FA signings, 2 areas that the Cubs haven’t exactly been good at for the past few years.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

Strap in for several years of TONS of people shooting up the season ticket wait list, folks.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Step 1: Fire Almora into the Sun

Step 2: ???

Step 3: Profit (but hopefully not for PTR)

that is so funny how your phone autocorrects kimbrel to almora

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Step 1: Fire Almora into the Sun

Step 2: ???

Step 3: Profit (but hopefully not for PTR)

that is so funny how your phone autocorrects kimbrel to almora

You say 5.98 xFIP, I say 49 wRC+, let's call the whole thing off.

[toonsterwu]

I think you sort of play out the string. There's justifications to go all sorts of ways (being hyper-aggressive for one last run, tanking and selling for a new cycle), but I think the least exciting route might simply be the most prudent route. You let this core play out the string. Hey, if someone comes along and offers an unexpected return for say, Schwarber, you pull the trigger, but otherwise, you just count down on it. Make some determinations on who can be signed long term and help build the next window. The current core as is isn't great, but it's competitive, and you hope for a little luck to go along with it while you play out the string.

 

Thing is, as was hit upon, the trade value of most of our assets have declined to the point where unless we do a full sell-off, it's hard to see how we get enough in return to facilitate a quick rebuild. A partial sell-off never made that much sense to me - say you move one or two pieces and keep everyone else - well, you probably won't get a top tier return, and you aren't really tanking, so you end up a below-average middling team without significantly improving your prospect base.

 

If you get lucky, you push some chips in to create a run, but you absolutely don't push all your chips in, a la the Eloy/Cease/Gleyber moves, as the window is on the down slope. The system isn't as ... eh ... as it was several years ago, and there are some bright spots, with real excitement for some impact potential, but it thins out fairly fast. Almost all systems gave some guys to hope on, so any commentary is really commentary on an improvement from the last couple years, and we have to wait and see if the organization has figured out their problems in assessing and developing pitching (I do like Franklin a fair amount).

 

Playing out the string sounds awful ... it's not exciting, it's not game-changing, but it might just be the right course to take.

[abohnhoff]

So whats the most logical solution for Contreras, Schwarber, Rizzo, Baez, Bryant extensions/trades/FA?

 

At most they re-sign 2, maybe 3 of them? Theres no way Rizzo ever gets traded. I'd think Baez is close to that territory.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Make the playoffs and win the World Series this year and who cares, imo

 

What's interesting is that I agree 100 percent with this statement, but I read it in a different way than you intended.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We need to focus on developing from the farm system and getting a consistent pipeline from the minor leagues. That’s something we have never tried before and it’s the only way to have sustained success.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Not so much talking about specific tactics here but more general approach.

 

On the pitching side of things, I don't want to oversimplify and say 'get good at developing pitchers', but I think that's the primary place to focus. They seem to be on the right track, but they need the farm system's output to catch up to their improvements at identifying scrap heap pitchers. Also, stop paying for high dollar relievers, I don't care where we are in the competitive cycle we're past that nonsense.

 

The offense is more nuanced, but this I think is illustrative: Here is the list of Cubs with > 100 PA in a season starting with 2016: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=150&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2016&ind=1&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2016-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&page=1_50

 

Here is the list of those players who were not developed by the organization or had reached free agency when they had those PAs:

 

2019 Castellanos

2017-18 La Stella

 

This is not an intrinsically bad thing, the Cubs had an incredible generation of talent come through and they've done well to follow up the initial wave with reinforcements(Happ, Bote, Hoerner). The problem is that it has made the offense's potential for unexpected improvement dependent on lifetime Cubs and post-30 free agents, which is not a great plan for smoothing over rough edges in performance. They need to cycle the player pool here, and to do that they need to do something they have refused to do, and that's part with their beloved position player assets. Maybe that's letting folks go in free agency(IMO Schwarber should be a non-starter for an extension and we really shouldn't with Rizzo either), making a trade a year early instead of a year late, and more generally targeting controllable position players that give the opportunity for fresh approaches(Castellanos the blinding example) and surprise improvement. As Bryant/Baez/Rizzo decline and/or leave they risk running into the problem of recent year Cardinals teams that don't have the star power to be truly competitive but not bad enough to blow up. You avoid that through decisive action, not trying to pick off bits at the margins. Not with every move(we aren't Jerry Dipoto here), but in a very literal sense that side of the roster is getting stale.