The Arenado Dream

[Banedon]

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[Banedon]

I will not be accepting logic at this time.

[David]

 

ummmm... well this is one KB trade scenario i'd be more than A-OK with

 

how can this possibly be real?

 

saw someone else say he mentioned as much as $7-8M per year (!!??) on arenado being picked up by the rockies

Edited January 29, 2020 by David

[Brian]

KB for Nolan & Cash

 

Rockies can trade KB and get a better return than they would have for Nolan.

 

EDIT: haha, and it's possibly a real thing

Edited January 29, 2020 by Brian

[Regular Show]

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This is pure speculation, but I agree and think he'd even pull a Giancarlo Stanton-invoke-my-NTC to force his way here or more likely LAD. I don't think he wants to go to STL. I'm pretty sure he admires the Cubs and I know he's friends with Javy lol:

 

 

Of course, our lack of spending this offseason probably doesn't help the cause...

Edited January 29, 2020 by Regular Show

[Bertz]

 

ummmm... well this is one KB trade scenario i'd be more than A-OK with

 

how can this possibly be real?

 

I'm not positive, but I believe when you send money in a trade, it's applied to the year(s) the money is received, not amortized over the life of the deal. So if, say, they did a 1 for 1 deal where all of the money the Rockies kicked in (let's say $25M) was in year one. that would get the Cubs under the tax this year rather than simply lowering Arenado from a $32M AAV guy to a $29M AAV guy.

 

Realistically though, I would imagine that if Arenado becomes a Cub it would have to be next winter or maybe at the deadline. But who knows, Theo did the Nomar deal and the Jason Bay/Manny Ramirez switcheroo so he's got it in him.

[Andy]

I really don't like the idea of trading Bryant, but getting Arenado, given that he's already locked up long term, would likely be more than 100 cents on the dollar. If that's an option it should be done like yesterday.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7-8 million per year in cash along with Arenado still adds 10 million to CBT payroll when traded for Bryant, which means you need to do some pretty heavy lifting to get under the tax line.

[Andy]

7-8 million per year in cash along with Arenado still adds 10 million to CBT payroll when traded for Bryant, which means you need to do some pretty heavy lifting to get under the tax line.

Would be a great time for Ricketts to employ that 'If Theo comes to me with an idea that would improve the team, I generally approve it' logic that he claims to have.

 

If ever there was a move that would help the Cubs be competitive post-2021, which is what they claim to want, this is it.

[BigbadB]

What in Arenado's metrics give people the impression that he will be successful outside of Coors Field? His stats are pretty generic away from Coors. I need help understanding why he is so coveted. He's on the wrong side of age 27, also.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7-8 million per year in cash along with Arenado still adds 10 million to CBT payroll when traded for Bryant, which means you need to do some pretty heavy lifting to get under the tax line.

Would be a great time for Ricketts to employ that 'If Theo comes to me with an idea that would improve the team, I generally approve it' logic that he claims to have.

 

If ever there was a move that would help the Cubs be competitive post-2021, which is what they claim to want, this is it.

 

Setting that aside(since it's easily the preferred option), this is where it would have been useful to have done literally anything this offseason. You could've traded Contreras for pitching and signed a cheap C to beef up the pitching depth(making trading Chatwood more palatable). You could have added a starting caliber position player basically anywhere and made it possible to dump Heyward without creating a hole. Instead, in order to make this deal fit you have to believe in Souza as a starter in RF or Cotton/Mills/Alzolay as your answer to the 5th starter role.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What in Arenado's metrics give people the impression that he will be successful outside of Coors Field? His stats are pretty generic away from Coors. I need help understanding why he is so coveted. He's on the wrong side of age 27, also.

 

- Coors has a documented hangover effect where hitters struggle to track pitches away from home since they move differently

- The NL West outside of Coors trends to be pitcher-friendly, and that's where most of Arenado's road games come from

- Arenado's park adjusted road performance is significantly above average compared to how the league performs on the road

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What in Arenado's metrics give people the impression that he will be successful outside of Coors Field? His stats are pretty generic away from Coors. I need help understanding why he is so coveted. He's on the wrong side of age 27, also.

 

Haven't players historically hit between their coors/road splits when leaving, not strictly at their road splits?

 

But your last point is where I'm at. 29 year olds with a billion years of commitment and an opt-out are not where I want to be.

[squally1313]

Kris Bryant is a better baseball player than Nolan Arenado, and making a straight up trade makes the Cubs a worse baseball team. Having said that, this trade is significantly better than any other rumored Bryant deal, and if we have to go down that road, might as well end up with this solution.

[David]

Kris Bryant is a better baseball player than Nolan Arenado, and making a straight up trade makes the Cubs a worse baseball team. Having said that, this trade is significantly better than any other rumored Bryant deal, and if we have to go down that road, might as well end up with this solution.

 

nah that ship has sailed the past couple years imo

 

aside from the injuries and the concern they cause (vs. arenado who has played at least 155 games every year since 2015), arenado fields 3B at an elite level and is just about as good a hitter. kb's defensive numbers have taken a big step back the past couple years from where the were in 2016.

Edited January 29, 2020 by David

[UMFan83]

What in Arenado's metrics give people the impression that he will be successful outside of Coors Field? His stats are pretty generic away from Coors. I need help understanding why he is so coveted. He's on the wrong side of age 27, also.

 

Haven't players historically hit between their coors/road splits when leaving, not strictly at their road splits?

 

Something like that. There's evidence that Coors Field actually hurts their road numbers because among other things they get used to how pitches break in high altitude and there's an adjustment every time they go on the road.

 

FWIW over the last 6 seasons, Nolan has 3 of the top 10 seasons for a Rockies player on the road by wOBA

[Cubswin11]

7-8 million per year in cash along with Arenado still adds 10 million to CBT payroll when traded for Bryant, which means you need to do some pretty heavy lifting to get under the tax line.

I wonder if they did this, the goal would be to get under the tax next year and not this year. Maybe this would be viewed as an exception to add a long-term star. We also could maybe get them to take Chatwood for the year in a deal and throw in some prospects with it to help the LT burden this year.

[ConstableRabbit]

7-8 million per year in cash along with Arenado still adds 10 million to CBT payroll when traded for Bryant, which means you need to do some pretty heavy lifting to get under the tax line.

I wonder if they did this, the goal would be to get under the tax next year and not this year. Maybe this would be viewed as an exception to add a long-term star. We also could maybe get them to take Chatwood for the year in a deal and throw in some prospects with it to help the LT burden this year.

It seems like they have been avoiding the year 3 tax like the plague so this could work, especially if they are comfortable with being under next year and the overage this year is small enough so that the higher year 2 tax isn't too impactful.

[SouthSideRyan]

How do you propose we get under the tax for 2021 while not making Kyle Hendricks start 100 games

[Sammy Sofa]

Kris Bryant is a better baseball player than Nolan Arenado, and making a straight up trade makes the Cubs a worse baseball team. Having said that, this trade is significantly better than any other rumored Bryant deal, and if we have to go down that road, might as well end up with this solution.

 

nah that ship has sailed the past couple years imo

 

aside from the injuries and the concern they cause (vs. arenado who has played at least 155 games every year since 2015), arenado fields 3B at an elite level and is just about as good a hitter. kb's defensive numbers have taken a big step back the past couple years from where the were in 2016.

 

Now this is the kind of creeping anti-Bryant content I am here for.

[ConstableRabbit]

Kris Bryant is a better baseball player than Nolan Arenado, and making a straight up trade makes the Cubs a worse baseball team. Having said that, this trade is significantly better than any other rumored Bryant deal, and if we have to go down that road, might as well end up with this solution.

 

nah that ship has sailed the past couple years imo

 

aside from the injuries and the concern they cause (vs. arenado who has played at least 155 games every year since 2015), arenado fields 3B at an elite level and is just about as good a hitter. kb's defensive numbers have taken a big step back the past couple years from where the were in 2016.

 

Now this is the kind of creeping anti-Bryant content I am here for.

It is neither creeping nor anti-Bryant to say that his MVP contender days are likely over and that he's "merely" a top 20ish hitter in MLB with middling 3B defense.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How do you propose we get under the tax for 2021 while not making Kyle Hendricks start 100 games

 

If you assume you need to cover 10 million you didn't before, then you have Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood freeing up close to 50 million in CBT payroll. You can probably fill those spots for a fair amount less than 40 million. You can also finally pull the trigger on trading Schwarber or Contreras for further breathing room against arb increases(though those 2 and Baez are the only significant increases).

[Brian]

it's also not a giant stretch (just a big one) to hope for 2 starting pitchers making minimum wage in '21

[Sammy Sofa]

 

nah that ship has sailed the past couple years imo

 

aside from the injuries and the concern they cause (vs. arenado who has played at least 155 games every year since 2015), arenado fields 3B at an elite level and is just about as good a hitter. kb's defensive numbers have taken a big step back the past couple years from where the were in 2016.

 

Now this is the kind of creeping anti-Bryant content I am here for.

It is neither creeping nor anti-Bryant to say that his MVP contender days are likely over and that he's "merely" a top 20ish hitter in MLB with middling 3B defense.

 

Tomayto, tomahto.

[Derwood]

Doesn’t Arenado have an opt out in 2 years?