The Arenado Dream

[jersey cubs fan]

Doesn’t Arenado have an opt out in 2 years?

which coincides with the next time the Cubs will allow themselves to spend money.

[Cubswin11]

Doesn’t Arenado have an opt out in 2 years?

He does, but he’ll be almost 32 and would still be owed 5/160 or so if he doesn’t opt out. Don’t know if he’d really got a ton more than that. The articles on his trade rumors have also indicated that the acquiring team may require him to waive his opt out rights as a condition of a trade, the acquiring team could add 1-2 years too. He also has a full NTC, but if Passan is to be believed that doesn’t seem like an issue for us.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Cubswin11

[Derwood]

Doesn’t Arenado have an opt out in 2 years?

which coincides with the next time the Cubs will allow themselves to spend money.

 

optimistic

[ConstableRabbit]

Doesn’t Arenado have an opt out in 2 years?

Bryant will be a FA

[BigbadB]

Can't we expect 2 very solid years of production out of Bryant as he plays to get that big payday in free agency, whereas Arenado has already gotten his?

[Sammy Sofa]

Can't we expect 2 very solid years of production out of Bryant

 

[ConstableRabbit]

Can't we expect 2 very solid years of production out of Bryant as he plays to get that big payday in free agency, whereas Arenado has already gotten his?

I was being mostly tongue-in-cheek, but Arenado has been better over the last few seasons. If you're replacing Bryant with Arenado, and Arenado opts out, it means he's balled out over two seasons. If Bryant has somehow been that great over those two seasons you can discuss trying to sign him, but he's going to be older and probably not worth the long term deal he'll want. I'm not sure that he's going to hit some new gear and decide to be a 7 WAR guy again because FA is getting closer but it would be cool if he did.

 

ETA: this is actually fun. Just added a poll.

[Bertz]

How do you propose we get under the tax for 2021 while not making Kyle Hendricks start 100 games

 

If you assume you need to cover 10 million you didn't before, then you have Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood freeing up close to 50 million in CBT payroll. You can probably fill those spots for a fair amount less than 40 million. You can also finally pull the trigger on trading Schwarber or Contreras for further breathing room against arb increases(though those 2 and Baez are the only significant increases).

 

With rough arb numbers, I have the team about $10M below the tax next year if they pick up Lester's option, $25M if they don't. Knock both of those down ~$5M going from KB's fourth year of arb to Arenado.

 

I think there's enough upper level pitching in the farm that you can reasonably count on it to fill one of the empty rotation spots. But then yeah you probably deal Contreras to fill one of the others. That in turn opens up another 7-8 mil, so you've got at least $10M to fill out the margins of the roster regardless of the Lester decision.

 

If PTR is fine resetting the penalties next year (which honestly I doubt) next offseason is a much cleaner one for getting under.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How do you propose we get under the tax for 2021 while not making Kyle Hendricks start 100 games

 

If you assume you need to cover 10 million you didn't before, then you have Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood freeing up close to 50 million in CBT payroll. You can probably fill those spots for a fair amount less than 40 million. You can also finally pull the trigger on trading Schwarber or Contreras for further breathing room against arb increases(though those 2 and Baez are the only significant increases).

 

With rough arb numbers, I have the team about $10M below the tax next year if they pick up Lester's option, $25M if they don't. Knock both of those down ~$5M going from KB's fourth year of arb to Arenado.

 

I think there's enough upper level pitching in the farm that you can reasonably count on it to fill one of the empty rotation spots. But then yeah you probably deal Contreras to fill one of the others. That in turn opens up another 7-8 mil, so you've got at least $10M to fill out the margins of the roster regardless of the Lester decision.

 

If PTR is fine resetting the penalties next year (which honestly I doubt) next offseason is a much cleaner one for getting under.

 

I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I don't think they have any CBT responsibility for Lester if they don't exercise the option. That 10 million has been part of the 155 million guaranteed, and why his CBT number this year(and the 5 years prior) is 25.8 million and not less than that.

[Bertz]

 

If you assume you need to cover 10 million you didn't before, then you have Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood freeing up close to 50 million in CBT payroll. You can probably fill those spots for a fair amount less than 40 million. You can also finally pull the trigger on trading Schwarber or Contreras for further breathing room against arb increases(though those 2 and Baez are the only significant increases).

 

With rough arb numbers, I have the team about $10M below the tax next year if they pick up Lester's option, $25M if they don't. Knock both of those down ~$5M going from KB's fourth year of arb to Arenado.

 

I think there's enough upper level pitching in the farm that you can reasonably count on it to fill one of the empty rotation spots. But then yeah you probably deal Contreras to fill one of the others. That in turn opens up another 7-8 mil, so you've got at least $10M to fill out the margins of the roster regardless of the Lester decision.

 

If PTR is fine resetting the penalties next year (which honestly I doubt) next offseason is a much cleaner one for getting under.

 

I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I don't think they have any CBT responsibility for Lester if they don't exercise the option. That 10 million has been part of the 155 million guaranteed, and why his CBT number this year(and the 5 years prior) is 25.8 million and not less than that.

 

Right, I believe if they pick up his option, it's a 1/15 deal for LT purposes. So I have the team about $10M under if they pick it up, and $25M under if they dont. I used fairly rough arb numbers though so it's purely directional.

[Cubswin11]

 

If you assume you need to cover 10 million you didn't before, then you have Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood freeing up close to 50 million in CBT payroll. You can probably fill those spots for a fair amount less than 40 million. You can also finally pull the trigger on trading Schwarber or Contreras for further breathing room against arb increases(though those 2 and Baez are the only significant increases).

 

With rough arb numbers, I have the team about $10M below the tax next year if they pick up Lester's option, $25M if they don't. Knock both of those down ~$5M going from KB's fourth year of arb to Arenado.

 

I think there's enough upper level pitching in the farm that you can reasonably count on it to fill one of the empty rotation spots. But then yeah you probably deal Contreras to fill one of the others. That in turn opens up another 7-8 mil, so you've got at least $10M to fill out the margins of the roster regardless of the Lester decision.

 

If PTR is fine resetting the penalties next year (which honestly I doubt) next offseason is a much cleaner one for getting under.

 

I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I don't think they have any CBT responsibility for Lester if they don't exercise the option. That 10 million has been part of the 155 million guaranteed, and why his CBT number this year(and the 5 years prior) is 25.8 million and not less than that.

So the LT hit is either $25.whatever next year if they exercise the option or $0 if they decline the option and pay him the $10 buyout, is what you’re saying? That logic seems to track.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Cubswin11

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

With rough arb numbers, I have the team about $10M below the tax next year if they pick up Lester's option, $25M if they don't. Knock both of those down ~$5M going from KB's fourth year of arb to Arenado.

 

I think there's enough upper level pitching in the farm that you can reasonably count on it to fill one of the empty rotation spots. But then yeah you probably deal Contreras to fill one of the others. That in turn opens up another 7-8 mil, so you've got at least $10M to fill out the margins of the roster regardless of the Lester decision.

 

If PTR is fine resetting the penalties next year (which honestly I doubt) next offseason is a much cleaner one for getting under.

 

I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I don't think they have any CBT responsibility for Lester if they don't exercise the option. That 10 million has been part of the 155 million guaranteed, and why his CBT number this year(and the 5 years prior) is 25.8 million and not less than that.

 

Right, I believe if they pick up his option, it's a 1/15 deal for LT purposes. So I have the team about $10M under if they pick it up, and $25M under if they dont. I used fairly rough arb numbers though so it's purely directional.

 

Ah, I'm saying the CBT burden if they pick it up is 25 and 0 if they don't. That's why Rizzo's burden is 16.5 this year and not 14.5.

[Bertz]

 

I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I don't think they have any CBT responsibility for Lester if they don't exercise the option. That 10 million has been part of the 155 million guaranteed, and why his CBT number this year(and the 5 years prior) is 25.8 million and not less than that.

 

Right, I believe if they pick up his option, it's a 1/15 deal for LT purposes. So I have the team about $10M under if they pick it up, and $25M under if they dont. I used fairly rough arb numbers though so it's purely directional.

 

Ah, I'm saying the CBT burden if they pick it up is 25 and 0 if they don't. That's why Rizzo's burden is 16.5 this year and not 14.5.

 

Gotchya. You might be right, Cole Hamels' contract was pretty analogous and the full value of his option counted against the tax. I thought there was some weird thing where that only happened because we traded for him though, and the Rangers would have been on the hook for less. But we're definitely getting into the weirder more esoteric parts of the CBA at this point. If Jon does count $25M against the CBT next year no way that option is picked up.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Doesn’t Arenado have an opt out in 2 years?

Bryant will be a FA

 

An expiring contract >>> a player opt-out

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Right, I believe if they pick up his option, it's a 1/15 deal for LT purposes. So I have the team about $10M under if they pick it up, and $25M under if they dont. I used fairly rough arb numbers though so it's purely directional.

 

Ah, I'm saying the CBT burden if they pick it up is 25 and 0 if they don't. That's why Rizzo's burden is 16.5 this year and not 14.5.

 

Gotchya. You might be right, Cole Hamels' contract was pretty analogous and the full value of his option counted against the tax. I thought there was some weird thing where that only happened because we traded for him though, and the Rangers would have been on the hook for less. But we're definitely getting into the weirder more esoteric parts of the CBA at this point. If Jon does count $25M against the CBT next year no way that option is picked up.

 

It's a bit weird because buyouts end up double counting when options are picked up to a degree, but I think that may be intentional to avoid teams getting too creative with shenanigans to lower their tax burden.

[17 Seconds]

the wrong side of age 27, also.

 

haha

[ConstableRabbit]

Doesn’t Arenado have an opt out in 2 years?

Bryant will be a FA

 

An expiring contract >>> a player opt-out

No horsefeathers?