2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

[Brian]

If you sign Javy for 8 seasons that's through age 34.

 

I'm not sure if it's a good comparison but i thought of Alfonso Soriano as a high K low BB guy, and at age 34 season he put up an .818 OPS and just for fun at 36 he put up an .821 OPS.

[Bertz]

My desire to keep Javy around as long as possible is based 90% on the fact that he's so insanely likable and fun to watch. Not sure he'd be as fun to watch when his quick reaction times and impressive range fade a little with age. Please smart baseball people prove me wrong, but he doesn't appear to be a player that stands to age well.

 

My understanding, and I don't think I've seen a refreshed study on it so it could be a weird steroid era anachronism, is that super athletic players age far more gracefully. The idea being that these guys have multiple way of contributing, so if one area falls off they still provide value in others. When Miguel Cabrera dropped to being a league average hitter last year, he was completely unplayable. When Javy is 35, he'll probably still be solid defensive 2B/3B who mashes lefties.

 

This could be out of date though, for the same reasons that aging curves have started skewing younger and younger.

I’m more worried about Javy’s offensive profile eroding long term (high Ks, low BB, low Contact%, quick twitch bat speed, base running, etc) than I am about defense. I have faith he can be fine and even plus defensively somewhere well in to his 30s (2B/3B/LF). It’s an extreme but look how quickly Carlos Gomez fell off.

 

Surprisingly, it's not a thing (again with the very large caveat about how the steroid-era affects these sorts of studies)

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/31/2199146/hitter-aging-curves

 

There is the general background on the creation and output of a hitter's aging curve. I will now take aging curves further and create them for the different types of players:

 

• Fast players -The criteria I used were hitters with 25 or more stolen bases and at least eight triples (103 total players including Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Carl Crawford).
   
  Young players with old-player skills (high K, BB and HR) - These players exhibit power at an early age with high number of walks and strikeouts. The criteria I used were hitters who are 25 years old or younger with more than 20 HRs, a K/PA greater than 15% and a BB/PA greater than 5% (73 total players including Joey Votto, Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki).
   
  Players with no plate discipline - Walk rate less 5% and K% greater than 20% from those with more than 200 plate appearances (148 players including Carlos Gonzalez, Jeff Francoeur, Ryan Doumit).

 

1. Fast and young-old players have a higher peak than the rest of the population.

2. Young-old players peak at age 25, which is one year earlier than the general population.

3. Fast players age extremely well from their peaks at 26 to 31, then they lose on average fewer then five runs over five seasons. Young-old players lose more than 10 runs in the same time span.

4. Players with no plate discipline age similarly to the overall population.

[cl smooth]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MLBintel/status/1225557269728911360[/tweet]

 

*grain of salt*

[CoolHandLuke]

I wish the grain of salt was big enough to prevent you from accessing your keyboard and posting a link to that clown.

[Outshined_One]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MLBintel/status/1225557269728911360[/tweet]

 

*grain of salt*

 

Yeahno.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MLBintel/status/1225557269728911360[/tweet]

 

*grain of salt*

 

Yeahno.

 

This actually got trending on Twitter last night, and actual reporters addressed it not being real.

 

I've really started to worry about the serious gullibility of people in our society. Although, based on current world events, I guess i should not be.

[Cubswin11]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MLBintel/status/1225557269728911360[/tweet]

 

*grain of salt*

 

Yeahno.

 

This actually got trending on Twitter last night, and actual reporters addressed it not being real.

 

I've really started to worry about the serious gullibility of people in our society. Although, based on current world events, I guess i should not be.

For every 20 MLBIntel’s there’s a WetButt, Katy Perry Booty Hole and NoCode.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

 

Yeahno.

 

This actually got trending on Twitter last night, and actual reporters addressed it not being real.

 

I've really started to worry about the serious gullibility of people in our society. Although, based on current world events, I guess i should not be.

For every 20 MLBIntel’s there’s a WetButt, Katy Perry Booty Hole and NoCode.

 

Sure, but it takes two seconds to look over an account and tell which is which or at least which one is for sure [expletive].

[cl smooth]

 

This actually got trending on Twitter last night, and actual reporters addressed it not being real.

 

I've really started to worry about the serious gullibility of people in our society. Although, based on current world events, I guess i should not be.

For every 20 MLBIntel’s there’s a WetButt, Katy Perry Booty Hole and NoCode.

 

Sure, but it takes two seconds to look over an account and tell which is which or at least which one is for sure [expletive].

 

you're absolutely right.

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[minnesotacubsfan]

For every 20 MLBIntel’s there’s a WetButt, Katy Perry Booty Hole and NoCode.

 

Sure, but it takes two seconds to look over an account and tell which is which or at least which one is for sure [expletive].

 

you're absolutely right.

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

that reads like a Fox news headline

[Bear Cub]

Hey, the Cat is back!

[UMFan83]

Hey, the Cat is back!

 

Is he still reporting that the Cubs are still in the mix to sign Harper?

[Derwood]

More like MLBIncel, amirite?

[17 Seconds]

If you sign Javy for 8 seasons that's through age 34.

 

I'm not sure if it's a good comparison but i thought of Alfonso Soriano as a high K low BB guy, and at age 34 season he put up an .818 OPS and just for fun at 36 he put up an .821 OPS.

 

soriano didn't really k that much for a power hitter, it just felt like he did because of how bad they usually looked

[Bertz]

The Padres are likely more pretty good than great, but man having probably the best bullpen in baseball and a Pham-Tatis-Machado middle of the order is good way to put yourself in the best position to receive some Brewers devil magic and win a bunch of really close games.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

if you need me I’ll be in the angrydome

[Bertz]

From Sharma's piece in The Athletic this morning:

 

Assuming health and no trades, the first four spots in the rotation are locked in. At Cubs Convention, new manager David Ross mentioned that Quintana is working on specific improvments to bounce back from a career-worst 4.68 ERA and the third-straight season in which his innings dropped. His name comes up in trade ideas with regard to the Cubs’ desire to make trades to get under the luxury tax, but at the moment there isn’t any reason to believe he’ll be dealt.

 

Right now the prime candidates to fill the fifth spot are Chatwood and Mills, with Rea and Cotton right behind them. Alzolay needs a healthy spring and likely some time at Triple A to refine some things and polish off his development. Chatwood could be a trade candidate, and not necessarily just a contract dump. As the spring progresses and injuries pop up across the league, Chatwood could prove to be a valuable piece should a contender need to fill a hole in its rotation. The one year and $13 million left on Chatwood’s contract may have restricted the Cubs’ spending this winter, but moving him without getting value after a solid bounce-back 2019 seems unwise. Chatwood started to really trust his curveball towards the end of last season and it led to some of the best strikeout numbers of his career.

 

If the team can not only dump Chatwood's whole salary this spring, but get a little value for him, that would be phenomenal.

[SouthSideRyan]

I make fun of everyone else here for believing Chatwood had trade value so I’ll do it for Sharma as well.

 

The idea of FA Chatwood getting 1/13M is laughable

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I make fun of everyone else here for believing Chatwood had trade value so I’ll do it for Sharma as well.

 

The idea of FA Chatwood getting 1/13M is laughable

 

I think that's fair, but part of the assumption here is that teams are making a deal out of more desperation than the average FA, as they have a hole open up due to injury and few teams are willing to trade and the FA market is tapped out. I don't think even in that hypothetical you get "real value" for Chatwood, but someone sweetening a deal on top of taking his contract isn't completely impossible.

[SouthSideRyan]

If Kris Bryant is being shopped to get under the luxury tax and they have the availability to trade Chatwood’s full contract, then everyone in the organization should be fired

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If Kris Bryant is being shopped to get under the luxury tax and they have the availability to trade Chatwood’s full contract, then everyone in the organization should be fired

 

The theory is they may have the availability to trade Chatwood's full contract if the right combination of circumstances strike during ST. The Bryant stuff has never made any coherent sense to begin with, everyone in the org should be ashamed at how this winter has transpired, regardless of what restrictions they have.

[Cubswin11]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Walker is a weird case. He was very highly regarded as a prospect, and was a slight disappointment in 'only' being an averageish starter who more often than not beat his FIP. Then he had TJS in 2018 and a shoulder injury during his 2019 recovery so he has 14 pro IP the last 2 years combined. He's only a few service days from free agency, and considering there's zero chance he can handle a starter's workload in 2020, the reasonable Cubs options are to give him the Dempster/Graveman get-right + option deal, or they're adding him to the bullpen pile. Can't say that either of those is particularly exciting to me, but I might be missing something.

[Tim]

Walker is a weird case. He was very highly regarded as a prospect, and was a slight disappointment in 'only' being an averageish starter who more often than not beat his FIP. Then he had TJS in 2018 and a shoulder injury during his 2019 recovery so he has 14 pro IP the last 2 years combined. He's only a few service days from free agency, and considering there's zero chance he can handle a starter's workload in 2020, the reasonable Cubs options are to give him the Dempster/Graveman get-right + option deal, or they're adding him to the bullpen pile. Can't say that either of those is particularly exciting to me, but I might be missing something.

Along those lines, the Cubs should be attractive to all these injured / comeback guys. With clear openings in the rotation and pen this year and even more next year, there is a clear path with the Cubs to re-establish themselves.

[jersey cubs fan]

Walker is a weird case. He was very highly regarded as a prospect, and was a slight disappointment in 'only' being an averageish starter who more often than not beat his FIP. Then he had TJS in 2018 and a shoulder injury during his 2019 recovery so he has 14 pro IP the last 2 years combined. He's only a few service days from free agency, and considering there's zero chance he can handle a starter's workload in 2020, the reasonable Cubs options are to give him the Dempster/Graveman get-right + option deal, or they're adding him to the bullpen pile. Can't say that either of those is particularly exciting to me, but I might be missing something.

Along those lines, the Cubs should be attractive to all these injured / comeback guys. With clear openings in the rotation and pen this year and even more next year, there is a clear path with the Cubs to re-establish themselves.

Until they meet the Cubs medical personnel.