Kris Bryant is awesome and we were always right to love him

[squally1313]

Yes, that is indeed a laundry list of reasons and excuses sort of hovering around why they continue to slide. Akin to your invitation to meatball, if you want to go with the "everything is fine; minimal changes in their approach to team building and player development need to be made," then have at it. I'll be mildly stunned if it results in a season better than this one.

 

I think going forward someone like Lindor is both more valuable than Bryant, and is more likely be be signed by the Cubs (and to be able to be signed by the Cubs in the first place). It's obviously a pipe dream, make a wish type of scenario, but it's certainly not suggestion just trying to "shake up the team," or to blow it up.

 

No, everything isn't fine. We've played most of the season with about a 20 man roster, which led to a lot of sub-replacement players getting ABs and innings. If you don't think Theo is capable of fixing the bottom half of the roster, but instead you want him to trade our best player for a handful of assets (to, again...where?), and then flip another handful of assets of roughly equal value to Cleveland...that doesn't line up.

 

I buy that Lindor is a slightly better player than Bryant, and the ZIPS projections back that up too. But I think a that almost all of that disparity is that Lindor is projected to put up roughly similar numbers (which, he isn't this year, but I'll use them) at shortstop vs KB at third. Which is all well and good...but then you have to wonder what that does to Javy's numbers going forward. It can't be coincidence that Baez finally got top defensive metrics when he moved to SS full time. There's not a perfect comp in 2019, but his 11.7 offensive number coupled with the 3s and 4s he was putting up at second chops about a full win off his current 4.3 fWAR number.

 

Getting away from the 'is the team doomed or not' debate, since I know we don't agree on that...has anyone come up with a remotely reasonable destination for KB in this scenario? And if anyone comes up with one, you also have to prove why that team wouldn't just trade for Lindor themselves. Lindor is probably a more valuable player going forward, but given that Cleveland has made it pretty obvious they want to trade him soon, I doubt it costs any more than it would take to get Bryant.

[Sammy Sofa]

Again, my own hunch is that Bryant's nebulous shoulder issues are going to make him a significantly less valuable player in relatively short order, be it via diminished power/bat speed or missed playing time or all of the above.

 

Whether it's Lindor or Bryant, the FO's fucked up lineup is going to to have to be fixed no matter what, and I'd rather they try and do it with Lindor than Bryant. Of course, that's assuming they'll be able to use money to do most of the fixing, so that's probably even more of a pipe dream than wanting Lindor. They're not going to want move what few prospect assets they have to get, say, a serviceable everyday outfielder, so, yeah...I think they're just going to mostly come back with the same team and any changes made will be on the VERY cheap, so, honestly, who gives a horsefeathers if it's Bryant or Lindor. Odds are nothing's really getting fixed either way. I'll bet good, good money that the only major change they make is acting like a new manager fixes everything. CF is going to be split between Almora and Happ, and Bote will be manning 2B. New cheap MI and OF backups, and voila...there's your 2020 Cubs offense. Just wait.

[squally1313]

Yeah I think if we're operating under the assumption that the FO isn't going to sign KB, they probably aren't going to sign Lindor either. I get that he's not a Boras guy, but I don't really know if we'd be able to see him as a long term contender in 2021 as pretty much everyone is coming off the books. And I don't know if building your team around two middle infielders on contracts into their mid/late 30s is really the best idea either.

 

I get the concerns about his shoulder, but I'd be a lot less worried if he was still throwing up an OPS in the 800s. Yeah, it sucks he doesn't seem to be getting the juiced ball bonus that everyone else is (or...to your point, maybe he is and that's the concern). But he's still matching Lindor this year.

[Cubswin11]

If we are handing out a big contract soon, be it KB in house or externally Rendon or Mookie are my picks for the top two guys to target over the next 1-2 years.

[Sammy Sofa]

But he's still matching Lindor this year.

 

Didn't Lindor miss a ton of time at the beginning of the year?

[squally1313]

But he's still matching Lindor this year.

 

Didn't Lindor miss a ton of time at the beginning of the year?

 

KB has 29 more PAs.

[Sammy Sofa]

So, in other words, Lindor missed about a dozen games.

[ConstableRabbit]

So, in other words, Lindor missed about a dozen games.

Where are you getting a dozen from 29 PAs?

[Sammy Sofa]

Good point.

 

*Checks game logs*

 

Oh, so he actually missed 19 games to start the year instead of a dozen. Whoopsy-doodles.

[ConstableRabbit]

Good point.

 

*Checks game logs*

 

Oh, so he actually missed 19 games to start the year instead of a dozen. Whoopsy-doodles.

Who cares how many games he missed? When discussing production, 29 PAs is a smaller difference than “19 games”

[Sammy Sofa]

The way he's playing, 19 games for Lindor is damn near 1 fWAR.

 

Now is this point where we jump to, "oh, well Bryant doesn't get to to hit #1, but if he did..."?

[squally1313]

The way he's playing, 19 games for Lindor is damn near 1 fWAR.

 

Now is this point where we jump to, "oh, well Bryant doesn't get to to hit #1, but if he did..."?

No, it’s where we talk about how KB has missed games since then, obviously. And then you can play up your injury concerns there, and ignore whatever Lindor was dealing with. 29 PAs is like 7 games, generously.

[Sammy Sofa]

With the games he missed, if Bryant plays out the string he ends up at 153 games this season. If Lindor does the same, he ends up at 141 games. So there's not really much to a line of thought that Bryant missed significant time, too, since that's the most games he's played in since 2017.

 

But sure, let's flip my concern that Bryant's shoulder woes could be extrapolated to now I should be wary of Lindor for similar injury fears since he missed a bunch of time due to injury this year. Except that Lindor has gotten better as the season has gone on:

 

First half: .296 .356 .511 .866 (.308 BAbip)

Second half: .308 .348 .574 .922 (.316 BAbip)

 

Now how about Bryant?

 

First half: .297 .403 .552 .955 (.318 BAbip)

Second half: .255 .333 .460 .793 (.302 BAbip)

 

This is now two years running where Bryant has slowed down/dropped off significantly in the second half. Perhaps just coincidentally, the Cubs' offense has done the same, too.

 

The shoulder stuff scares the bejeebers out of me. I wouldn't be surprised if 2019 Bryant is best case scenario Bryant going forward, which certainly isn't a bad thing at all, but also not nearly the player they were banking on.

Edited August 30, 2019 by Sammy Sofa

[Tim]

Now how about Bryant, finally playing in more than 127 games since 2017?

So...you're saying he missed games last year, then

[Sammy Sofa]

Now how about Bryant, finally playing in more than 127 games since 2017?

So...you're saying he missed games last year, then

 

Do me a solid and edit that bad boy to 102. It was early, and I had just run a lot to offset the Thai food buffet I am going to demolish this afternoon, so I was lucky I could parse anything numbers-related.

[squally1313]

Now how about Bryant, finally playing in more than 127 games since 2017?

So...you're saying he missed games last year, then

 

Do me a solid and edit that bad boy to 102. It was early, and I had just run a lot to offset the Thai food buffet I am going to demolish this afternoon.

 

I think his point was that when people do the "since (year)"...they usually are trying to show some extended run of time, not a whole one year of being hurt. The dude played in about every game when he got called up, and missed all of 17 games the next two years. ZIPs has him on track to miss 9 this year. If you really think that one slide permanently broke him, fine...sell before anyone else figures it out. But I'd wager he'll be our best hitter this September (because that's the safest bet pretty much every month).

[Sammy Sofa]

It probably means nothing, but here's his monthly OPS from June of 2018 onwards:

 

.707

.787

.787

.775

1.162

.877

.928

.769

 

June and July of this year were on the backs of high BAbip's even for him, but then August was a shitty BAbip, so, whatever. I just don't know what this guy is anymore. Give him a robot shoulder or something.

Edited August 30, 2019 by Sammy Sofa

[Sammy Sofa]

So...you're saying he missed games last year, then

 

Do me a solid and edit that bad boy to 102. It was early, and I had just run a lot to offset the Thai food buffet I am going to demolish this afternoon.

 

I think his point was that when people do the "since (year)"...they usually are trying to show some extended run of time, not a whole one year of being hurt. The dude played in about every game when he got called up, and missed all of 17 games the next two years. ZIPs has him on track to miss 9 this year. If you really think that one slide permanently broke him, fine...sell before anyone else figures it out. But I'd wager he'll be our best hitter this September (because that's the safest bet pretty much every month).

 

Fair enough; that was a poor choice of words on my part, since my concern isn't that he's necessarily going to miss a bunch of time, and more that he's perpetually diminished by the shoulder issues, especially in the sense that he can't really hold up production-wise over the course of a full season.

 

I would hope that one line won't have people ignoring the rest of the post.

[squally1313]

Well it was pretty clear he wasn't playing at full strength last year. If your argument is that his first three months this year were some aberration/fluke based on this new normal, and then just August was actually what he really is...I guess. But I think it's much more reasonable that the 6 months off got him back to full strength, he probably played a little over his head in the first half, and then had a bad stretch in August. We'll see if it extends into September, but I'll take the over on .900.

[squally1313]

It probably means nothing, but here's his monthly OPS from June of 2018 onwards:

 

.707

.787

.787

.775

1.162

.877

.928

.769

 

June and July of this year were on the backs of high BAbip's even for him, but then August was a horsefeathers BAbip, so, whatever. I just don't know what this guy is anymore. Give him a robot shoulder or something.

 

It's early, but I think you're missing a month here somewhere. Is the 1.162 supposed to be April?

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Until his OPS in St Louis improves this is all whistling past the graveyard.

[ConstableRabbit]

The way he's playing, 19 games for Lindor is damn near 1 fWAR.

 

Now is this point where we jump to, "oh, well Bryant doesn't get to to hit #1, but if he did..."?

Are you saying that you value Lindor over Bryant because he averages more PAs per game with a straight face, or is this part of your "the Cubs suck and I hope they lose forever" schtick?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Bryant's rolling production this year looks a whole lot more like past years than 2018:

 

 

A week ago he had an .826 OPS for the month, and as recently as 2 weeks ago he was riding a hot streak with 5 home runs in a 15 game span. Hard for me to interpret that as him wearing down compared to simply checking at a valley that all signs point to moving back to a peak like his career has dictated over a number of years.

[Sammy Sofa]

It probably means nothing, but here's his monthly OPS from June of 2018 onwards:

 

.707

.787

.787

.775

1.162

.877

.928

.769

 

June and July of this year were on the backs of high BAbip's even for him, but then August was a horsefeathers BAbip, so, whatever. I just don't know what this guy is anymore. Give him a robot shoulder or something.

 

It's early, but I think you're missing a month here somewhere. Is the 1.162 supposed to be April?

 

No, I should have put the months: the .775 is April of this season; the first 3 are June, July and then September/October. Nothing for that August since he he was out.

[Sammy Sofa]

The way he's playing, 19 games for Lindor is damn near 1 fWAR.

 

Now is this point where we jump to, "oh, well Bryant doesn't get to to hit #1, but if he did..."?

Are you saying that you value Lindor over Bryant because he averages more PAs per game with a straight face, or is this part of your "the Cubs suck and I hope they lose forever" schtick?

 

I value Lindor more because he's younger, is much better defensively at a much more important position, and, most critically (IMO), is not showing signs that he's going to be a much more inconsistent or diminished player because of a chronic injury/pan/discomfort issue. I just figured since people are trying to parse the tiniest possible differences between the two in an effort to make anyone who would prefer Lindor over Bryant to be a dolt (see your gigantic reach of a response), I'd head that off that at the pass since Bryant's spent most the year batting 2nd, so whatever. All of the Fangraphs' projects for the rest of the season have Lindor being worth another 1 fWAR, so, again, Lindor missing 19 games arguably shorted him "damn near 1 fWAR."

 

Also, yes, the Cubs do suck, but I only hope they lose most of the time. I'm feeling magnanimous today since it's the Brewers.