Kris Bryant is awesome and we were always right to love him

[17 Seconds]

You people will miss kb's easy .900 ops when he signs somewhere else

[Cubswin11]

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[Sammy Sofa]

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While the overall point is valid, this is a REALLY weird roller coaster of a list of players to make it:

 

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[Banedon]

The RISP stuff is just setting up a playoff arc for Bryant when he goes 2002 Bonds + Beltran 2005 + the ring on their asses

 

http://static.nfl.com/static/content/public/video/2017/11/24/0ap3000000882302_video_cp.jpg

[UMFan83]

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While the overall point is valid, this is a REALLY weird roller coaster of a list of players to make it:

 

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Also, while RISP may be a concern, its more the hitting in high leverage spots and "clutch factor". I'm still not 100% convinced clutch is a predictable thing, but KB after being great in those situations as a rookie, has been anywhere from well below average to one of the worst in the league the rest of his career.

 

The Cubs in general in high leverage spots have been iffy. Here is where the current Cubs players with at least 100 high leverage PAs from 2017-2019 have fared with regards to wRC+ in high leverage situations:

 

3. Descalso - 179 (obviously most with another team when he wasn't awful)

44. Rizzo - 128

73. Heyward - 111

101. Willson Contreras - 101

111. Albert Almora - 95

145. Kris Bryant - 77

152. Javier Baez - 72

169. Ben Zobrist - 60

187. Addison Russell - 34

192. (dead last) Kyle Schwarber - 11 (2nd worst has a wRC+ of 26)

 

FWIW several of those guys have been better this year and with regards to Schwarbs, that number is weighed down by a historically awful 2018 where his wRC+ was -64. This year its at 106, the highest of his career

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

 

Also, while RISP may be a concern, its more the hitting in high leverage spots and "clutch factor". I'm still not 100% convinced clutch is a predictable thing, but KB after being great in those situations as a rookie, has been anywhere from well below average to one of the worst in the league the rest of his career.

 

The Cubs in general in high leverage spots have been iffy. Here is where the current Cubs players with at least 100 high leverage PAs from 2017-2019 have fared with regards to wRC+ in high leverage situations:

 

3. Descalso - 179 (obviously most with another team when he wasn't awful)

44. Rizzo - 128

73. Heyward - 111

101. Willson Contreras - 101

111. Albert Almora - 95

145. Kris Bryant - 77

152. Javier Baez - 72

169. Ben Zobrist - 60

187. Addison Russell - 34

192. (dead last) Kyle Schwarber - 11 (2nd worst has a wRC+ of 26)

 

FWIW several of those guys have been better this year and with regards to Schwarbs, that number is weighed down by a historically awful 2018 where his wRC+ was -64. This year its at 106, the highest of his career

I think high-leverage/WPA type analysis is going to be one of the last stat-head realms to conquer. Sure, its insanely noisy, but there is probably a lot of approach/nerves data burried under all the noise. The task is going to be finding a smart way to quantify the effect, and then correlating it to some other stat with larger sample sizes, or scoutable player traits. Then maybe the conclusion is that its just overfitting noise, but I suspect there is something there to be found.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I would be willing to wager that his already mediocre exit velocity and hard contact take a big hit in those situations. He has a lot of wet farts. And he swings through a lot of meatballs.

 

Love to be proven wrong.

[Cubswin11]

Bryant’s wRC+ with RISP for his career is the same as Nolan Arenado’s overall career wRC+ (They’re both like 121). That’s kind of a crazy stat/factoid, to me.

[17 Seconds]

i want him to be traded just so you ingrates remember what it's like not having a constant .400 obp in the middle of the lineup

[WrigleyField 22]

RH Votto engaged

 

Boy, didn't expect the Mormons to allow this.

 

If you have enough money, any religion will pretty much allow anything... if they get their cut.

[Gilby]

I really have a hard time buying the nerves stuff with him with runners in scoring position. To me that's just fans applying how they would feel in that spot and how they do feel while watching a game. I think professional athletes are wired in a way that is hard for us to understand, especially someone who has been as consistently great at all levels like Bryant. And depending on the year and exact situation, the RISP/high leverage numbers aren't even bad. I mean sure he's not technically a perfect Trout-ian player but for the love of Christ this is some legendary horsefeathers we're watching. The takes on twitter can get me a bit riled up.

 

Also please don't trade him and please re-sign him. This isn't some sad sack small market franchise.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I had a dream they traded KB to the Dodgers, and the big name coming back was Rich Hill. I woke up angry. I need a life.

[mul21]

There's a reply somewhere in the Cerami thread about how his walk and K rates are noticeably higher with RISP meaning pitchers are pitching around him almost every time he's in that situation. Probably a combination of him not getting nearly as many pitches to hit and him expanding the zone to get the job done. I don't really blame him for a slight change in approach in those situations, but when hot Javy is behind him, he definitely needs to lay off those pitches out of the zone better.

[Bertz]

I'm generally in the "clutch is noise" camp, however I think there is some reason it may persist in the numbers even if it's not some moral failing:

 

1. Good hitters are always going to suffer because managers are managing to them. For example, you'll bring in the closer in the 8th to face Kris Bryant. You're not going to bother for Daniel Descalso

 

2. Related to #1, if a guy has a very specific way to get him out, he's going to have a wider gap. For KB, he's generally pretty susceptible to righties with good changeups. Managers can exploit that in high leverage situations in a way that they can't as easily for an Anthony Rizzo (who I've never noticed as having such a specific weakness)

[squally1313]

I'm generally in the "clutch is noise" camp, however I think there is some reason it may persist in the numbers even if it's not some moral failing:

 

1. Good hitters are always going to suffer because managers are managing to them. For example, you'll bring in the closer in the 8th to face Kris Bryant. You're not going to bother for Daniel Descalso

 

2. Related to #1, if a guy has a very specific way to get him out, he's going to have a wider gap. For KB, he's generally pretty susceptible to righties with good changeups. Managers can exploit that in high leverage situations in a way that they can't as easily for an Anthony Rizzo (who I've never noticed as having such a specific weakness)

 

Agreed on the first part, but where are you getting the second part? KB seems pretty solid against changeups this year, and over his career.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=7&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=7,d

[UMFan83]

I'm generally in the "clutch is noise" camp, however I think there is some reason it may persist in the numbers even if it's not some moral failing:

 

1. Good hitters are always going to suffer because managers are managing to them. For example, you'll bring in the closer in the 8th to face Kris Bryant. You're not going to bother for Daniel Descalso

 

2. Related to #1, if a guy has a very specific way to get him out, he's going to have a wider gap. For KB, he's generally pretty susceptible to righties with good changeups. Managers can exploit that in high leverage situations in a way that they can't as easily for an Anthony Rizzo (who I've never noticed as having such a specific weakness)

 

Appreciate this. I've never thought about it this way as it pertains to 'clutch hitting'

[David]

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[Bertz]

I'm generally in the "clutch is noise" camp, however I think there is some reason it may persist in the numbers even if it's not some moral failing:

 

1. Good hitters are always going to suffer because managers are managing to them. For example, you'll bring in the closer in the 8th to face Kris Bryant. You're not going to bother for Daniel Descalso

 

2. Related to #1, if a guy has a very specific way to get him out, he's going to have a wider gap. For KB, he's generally pretty susceptible to righties with good changeups. Managers can exploit that in high leverage situations in a way that they can't as easily for an Anthony Rizzo (who I've never noticed as having such a specific weakness)

 

Agreed on the first part, but where are you getting the second part? KB seems pretty solid against changeups this year, and over his career.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=7&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=7,d

 

I'll admit it's pretty anecdotal. I looked at those stats and it doesn't show up as an obvious effect. I *think* it's because he can hit the hell out of a B- changeup but suffers disproportionately as the quality improves, but I don't have rock solid evidence to back that up.

[squally1313]

I'm generally in the "clutch is noise" camp, however I think there is some reason it may persist in the numbers even if it's not some moral failing:

 

1. Good hitters are always going to suffer because managers are managing to them. For example, you'll bring in the closer in the 8th to face Kris Bryant. You're not going to bother for Daniel Descalso

 

2. Related to #1, if a guy has a very specific way to get him out, he's going to have a wider gap. For KB, he's generally pretty susceptible to righties with good changeups. Managers can exploit that in high leverage situations in a way that they can't as easily for an Anthony Rizzo (who I've never noticed as having such a specific weakness)

 

Agreed on the first part, but where are you getting the second part? KB seems pretty solid against changeups this year, and over his career.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=7&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=7,d

 

I'll admit it's pretty anecdotal. I looked at those stats and it doesn't show up as an obvious effect. I *think* it's because he can hit the hell out of a B- changeup but suffers disproportionately as the quality improves, but I don't have rock solid evidence to back that up.

 

I'm guessing you're probably right, but I'm not sure how much of that is a KB thing vs an everyone in baseball thing. Which goes back to your earlier point...opposing managers are going to make the move to get their top pitcher in against KB more often than they would someone at the bottom of the order. (Though that theory would imply he would see more plus pitches, and yet his numbers remain solid). It's been frustrating for sure, but still think it's mostly noise.

[chopsx9]

 

While the overall point is valid, this is a REALLY weird roller coaster of a list of players to make it:

 

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[Brian]

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[Bertz]

2 Observations from his event just now:

 

1. The picture on the Redbull can looks almost nothing like him

 

2. He wasn't able to hit any balls across the river so obviously his shoulder is horsefeathered again

[Brian]

was his dad pitching?

 

edit - nope looks like it was Thomas Ian Nicholas (Henry Rosenbager) and his brother-in-law.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Since May 3rd (270 PAs): .323/.429/.606 with a 19.6% K rate

 

Probably time to sell high

[We Got The Whole 9]

Hes finally gonna hit 3/4/6, right?