6/25 Corbs (Underhill) at Dodgers (Maeda) 9:10 CDT ESPN

[Cubswin11]

real collapse potential now

Probably likely

Edited June 26, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd find it hilariously amusing if the Cubs actually managed to collapse and miss the playoffs or even fail to win the division. But it's still not going to happen.

[soccer10k]

real collapse potential now

 

The doom boners on this board are fully erect right now.

[17 Seconds]

real collapse potential now

 

The doom boners on this board are fully erect right now.

 

in nsb game threads, the new doom boner is hoping they lose so you can tell everyone how much it doesn't bother you

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Joe Maddon Cubs have a .595 winning percentage in about 3.5 seasons, a 96 win pace. In May and June it is .538, an 87 win pace.

[UMFan83]

Remember when the Dodgers were 10 games under .500? Now 0.5 games worse than the Cubs

[jersey cubs fan]

Remember when the Dodgers were 10 games under .500? Now 0.5 games worse than the Cubs

only because the cubs are 9.5 games under .500

[squally1313]

Remember when the Dodgers were 10 games under .500? Now 0.5 games worse than the Cubs

 

good thing we played so much better than that really good team for so long this year.

[soccer10k]

real collapse potential now

 

The doom boners on this board are fully erect right now.

 

in nsb game threads, the new doom boner is hoping they lose so you can tell everyone how much it doesn't bother you

 

Nope, it’s acting like this team is terrible and has no chance of doing anything this year after a five game losing streak. Less than a weeks ago we had won 17 of 25, had won 7 of 8 series and had the best record in the NL. And don’t try and say this is just heat of the game thread moment because you and others do this all the time.

 

I’m not going to lie, the losses bother me a hell of a lot less than they did pre-WS. But they still bother me. Some more than others. So go ahead and bitch about losses. It’s fine. I’ve complained about losses this year. But there’s a huge difference between “this loss hurts, never should have happened, team blew it, team sucked today” and “omg, this team is horrible, definitely not making the playoffs, collapse potential, etc.”

 

It’s definitley possible this team doesn’t make the playoffs and I suppose it’s possible that they collapse and win 76 games. But they’ve got a three year track record of being really good, are still on pace for upper 80’s in wins and are 2 1/2 games out of first and currently lead in the wild card. Fangraphs has them 87% to make the playoffs, BP is 76% and 538 is 78%. I get it, you wanted us to be like the Astros. That would be awesome. But there are other options besides “Astros good” and “total crap”.

[Sammy Sofa]

[17 Seconds]

 

The doom boners on this board are fully erect right now.

 

in nsb game threads, the new doom boner is hoping they lose so you can tell everyone how much it doesn't bother you

 

Nope, it’s acting like this team is terrible and has no chance of doing anything this year after a five game losing streak. Less than a weeks ago we had won 17 of 25, had won 7 of 8 series and had the best record in the NL. And don’t try and say this is just heat of the game thread moment because you and others do this all the time.

 

I’m not going to lie, the losses bother me a hell of a lot less than they did pre-WS. But they still bother me. Some more than others. So go ahead and bitch about losses. It’s fine. I’ve complained about losses this year. But there’s a huge difference between “this loss hurts, never should have happened, team blew it, team sucked today” and “omg, this team is horrible, definitely not making the playoffs, collapse potential, etc.”

 

It’s definitley possible this team doesn’t make the playoffs and I suppose it’s possible that they collapse and win 76 games. But they’ve got a three year track record of being really good, are still on pace for upper 80’s in wins and are 2 1/2 games out of first and currently lead in the wild card. Fangraphs has them 87% to make the playoffs, BP is 76% and 538 is 78%. I get it, you wanted us to be like the Astros. That would be awesome. But there are other options besides “Astros good” and “total crap”.

 

saying there is collapse potential is not the same as the other 2 things you grouped it with. the rotation's problems are concerning enough that a collapse to .500 or whatever and missing the playoffs is not the far-fetched idea that it's constantly treated as. there is plenty of reason to be scared as horsefeathers of the rotation and what it would mean organizationally if they don't turn it around.

 

it's at the point where people complaining about the cubs are automatically assumed to be saying the cubs are on their way to the bottom, when really it's the opposite side that is constantly pretending to know where the cubs are headed. any sort of negativity is immediately met with 1 of like 3-4 posters saying some variation of "who cares, they won x amount of games the last 4 years, so that is obviously going to continue" and then the other 2-3 people immediately liking the post.

[soccer10k]

 

in nsb game threads, the new doom boner is hoping they lose so you can tell everyone how much it doesn't bother you

 

Nope, it’s acting like this team is terrible and has no chance of doing anything this year after a five game losing streak. Less than a weeks ago we had won 17 of 25, had won 7 of 8 series and had the best record in the NL. And don’t try and say this is just heat of the game thread moment because you and others do this all the time.

 

I’m not going to lie, the losses bother me a hell of a lot less than they did pre-WS. But they still bother me. Some more than others. So go ahead and bitch about losses. It’s fine. I’ve complained about losses this year. But there’s a huge difference between “this loss hurts, never should have happened, team blew it, team sucked today” and “omg, this team is horrible, definitely not making the playoffs, collapse potential, etc.”

 

It’s definitley possible this team doesn’t make the playoffs and I suppose it’s possible that they collapse and win 76 games. But they’ve got a three year track record of being really good, are still on pace for upper 80’s in wins and are 2 1/2 games out of first and currently lead in the wild card. Fangraphs has them 87% to make the playoffs, BP is 76% and 538 is 78%. I get it, you wanted us to be like the Astros. That would be awesome. But there are other options besides “Astros good” and “total crap”.

 

saying there is collapse potential is not the same as the other 2 things you grouped it with. the rotation's problems are concerning enough that a collapse to .500 or whatever and missing the playoffs is not the far-fetched idea that it's constantly treated as. there is plenty of reason to be scared as horsefeathers of the rotation and what it would mean organizationally if they don't turn it around.

 

it's at the point where people complaining about the cubs are automatically assumed to be saying the cubs are on their way to the bottom, when really it's the opposite side that is constantly pretending to know where the cubs are headed. any sort of negativity is immediately met with 1 of like 3-4 posters saying some variation of "who cares, they won x amount of games the last 4 years, so that is obviously going to continue" and then the other 2-3 people immediately liking the post.

 

The three things do deserve to be grouped together, especially the last two. You're going to the extreme here. I admitted there's a realistic chance the Cubs miss the playoffs. Going by the three metrics, It's around a 1 in 5 they miss. That's not far fetched. But its much more likely they make the playoffs, even if it's as a wild card.

 

Again, entering the Reds series they had the best record in the NL. Did you think there was collapse potential then? If you did, you're just a lunatic and we're probably done here. If not, then you're just blowing 5 games out of proportion and putting more stock in that than the 73 games before, which is not the best of ideas. That's why people get annoyed. You're ignoring 2 1/2 months of baseball in favor of less than a week. The Dodgers last year were on pace for 115 wins and had a 1-16 stretch in September (worked out pretty well for them). The 2017 Astros had a 4-12 stretch (worked out even better for them). The Cubs had a 5-15 stretch in 2016 (ditto). These things happen. It's baseball. Bad teams are going to look great for one to two week stretches and good/great teams will look bad for one to two week stretches.

[Sammy Sofa]

But like he said, just heaving out W-L stretches, of any sample size, like that is proof that they will of course be good or great is just as flimsy as pointing to a stretch and saying that that's proof that they will collapse (which, again, nobody is actually saying except r_mack).

 

Everyone gets that teams fluctuate between hot and cold streaks; for me, it's worrisome that even when it's on, the team's offense has some bizarre shortcomings that they can't shake off (weirdly incompetent with what should be relatively easy run situations, the strange lack of home run power, etc.). It just seems like it gets immediately dismissed that offensively the Cubs are seemingly more lopsided than a "regular" streaky good team would be. That sounds stupidly generalized and meatball-y, but I really don't know how else to put it; they seem especially prone to feast or famine, but the feast part of it is at a relatively micro level where their offense explodes for 1-2 games and then REALLY scales back for multiple games, even if they do keep winning. Maybe it is all in my head, but it just seems off that a team that IS good has gone SO cold SO many times, even in a game where the best teams have fallow periods.

 

And I am super paranoid about the starting pitching, too.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'll put it this way: it wouldn't surprise me at all if after last night they only score 9 more runs total over the next 5 games. It also wouldn't surprise me if they managed to win 3 of those 5 while doing that. It also wouldn't surprise me if they lost all 5 of those games. This is a weird horsefeathering team.

[squally1313]

For what it's worth, I share your concerns about the starting pitching. Outside whatever Drew Smyly may be, we've more or less locked ourselves in to these 5 starters who are either at the peak of their age curve or clearly on the wrong side of it for the next three years. Yeah, we can live with burying a Chatwood contract if the other four aren't enough to rely on to win a playoff series (and hopefully they figure that out in the next month or so), but that's going to cost either money, which we have but theoretically have earmarked elsewhere), prospects, which we don't have, or young major league talent, which we'd want to hold onto.

 

In terms of lopsided, hot/cold, etc...league wide, it's pretty clear it's becoming more of a boom/bust offensive approach. Hits are down, HRs are up (over 1100 more in 2017 than 2015). Whether that's led to a league wide deterioration in situational hitting skills, or if it's just that even when a single would do they're still going for dongs (hi Javy)...maybe a little of both. But it's going to lead to more big innings/games, and more stretches of ineptitude.

 

This is no less meatball-y/generalized than any of your arguments, but just as they've established a track record of lack of clutch hitting, cold streaks, etc...they've also established a pretty clear trend of playing (or at least hitting) better in the second half.

 

2015: 1st half 88 wRC (24th), 2nd half 105 wRC (8th)

2016: 1st half 108 wRC (5th), 2nd half 101 wRC (7th)

2017: 1st half 93 wRC (14th), 2nd half 110 wRC (4th)

2018: 1st half 102 wRC (10th)

 

My worry is that the pitching collapses right as the offense starts to click. We're doing the BABIP thing again, which should hopefully offset the fact that we're 3rd in ERA but 17th in FIP (and 22nd in xFIP). It's the same problem that became very glaring in the bullpen last October: we can't throw strikes. Only now we have that problem in the rotation too. We can assume/hope Chatwood gets Hammel'd come October, but Quintana is up over 4 walks per 9, Hendricks is at a career high in walk rate, and Lester's regression issues have been well documented. On top of that, our bullpen gets very thin if just one of Edwards, Strop, Cishek, and Morrow aren't healthy.

[Bertz]

If Yu comes back from this injury fine, I'm not really worried about the starting pitching any more than just normal existential dread about any pitcher.

 

Lester's been lucky, but he's also been fairly good. He's probably due for a <2 inning 8+ hit disaster start, but I'm not worried about him overall. Unless your expectations are still that he's an ace I wouldn't worry. Similar story with Monty, he's been lucky but also legitimately good.

 

Quintana had a rough start to the year and is still climbing out of that. but has generally been good since. He has a 3.12 ERA the past two months. The walks and HRs are up, but I don't think by an alarming amount. He's probably been nibbling a bit too much because he's been a little unlucky with homeruns. Not a long term concern IMO.

 

Kyle's been a little more concerning. He's down across the board. That being said, his velocity is fine, and in the past his struggles have generally been directly tied to reduced velocity. I'm hoping it's just a slump. but even if he's diminished now it's more a case of being more average than good rather than being a full on problem like Chatwood.

[Sammy Sofa]

In terms of lopsided, hot/cold, etc...league wide, it's pretty clear it's becoming more of a boom/bust offensive approach. Hits are down, HRs are up (over 1100 more in 2017 than 2015). Whether that's led to a league wide deterioration in situational hitting skills, or if it's just that even when a single would do they're still going for dongs (hi Javy)...maybe a little of both. But it's going to lead to more big innings/games, and more stretches of ineptitude.

 

I'll bet a lot of my meatball-y perception is in having gotten rid of cable since last season. Before I'd usually just have random games on in the background, and that would at least lead to things, like, "oh, I wonder how so and so is doing this year," or, "how does this team usually look in this category." Now more than ever I am just not really paying attention to other teams at all outside of game scores and random things like dongs, so it's really built up that typical "ONLY MY TEAM" response even more than usual.

[squally1313]

If Yu comes back from this injury fine, I'm not really worried about the starting pitching any more than just normal existential dread about any pitcher.

 

Lester's been lucky, but he's also been fairly good. He's probably due for a <2 inning 8+ hit disaster start, but I'm not worried about him overall. Unless your expectations are still that he's an ace I wouldn't worry. Similar story with Monty, he's been lucky but also legitimately good.

 

Quintana had a rough start to the year and is still climbing out of that. but has generally been good since. He has a 3.12 ERA the past two months. The walks and HRs are up, but I don't think by an alarming amount. He's probably been nibbling a bit too much because he's been a little unlucky with homeruns. Not a long term concern IMO.

 

Kyle's been a little more concerning. He's down across the board. That being said, his velocity is fine, and in the past his struggles have generally been directly tied to reduced velocity. I'm hoping it's just a slump. but even if he's diminished now it's more a case of being more average than good rather than being a full on problem like Chatwood.

 

There's enough permutations of those four in terms of performance where I'm not concerned about their skill level. Lester having one more vintage year, Darvish/Quintana pitching like they've basically always pitched,Hendricks going back to what he's done the last couple years...any of those are enough to be the nominal ace of a postseason team. At least for this year.

 

Health is the concern for me. Monty has had a great run, but he's just not the pitcher that those other four are, and he takes the one lefthanded pitcher from the bullpen that I would trust going into the playoffs. Q and Hendricks have never really had health issues, but they're still pitchers. Darvish obviously is a huge question mark, and we've pushed Lester a lot more than I've liked so far this year, mostly because he's been pitching after Chatwood and the bullpen is always gassed. I'm hoping we go on a run here soon so that any acquisition we make it geared more towards soaking up innings than going out and getting someone good enough to start/get high leverage spots in October.