Cubs sign Tyler Chatwood for 3/$38M

[CP_414]

 

Again, i personally am not opposed to this deal. I just don't think it's a hot take to be puzzled by this. A reasonable person can look at this and say that it's not a good idea. That doesn't mean they are correct. It just means it's a fair take.

Will you think this isn't a good deal if we sign Ohtani then bring in 1 or 2 AAAA filler types (Garza, Gee, Buchholz, etc)? Or if the 6-man rotation has some legs and we add Cobb and Ohtani? Or if we trade for a SP of a Cobb level? If you think this is our only significant SP add of the offseason then I get the hate/worry but I highly doubt it is and very well could be the "worst" pitcher we add.

 

I don't think it's a bad deal right now. I am not saying it's a bad deal. I'm saying it's not crazy to be opposed to this.

 

I fully expect them to add a starting pitcher much better than Chatwood, whether it's Ohtani or someone else.

Edited December 7, 2017 by CP_414

[David]

basically everything about that question from derwood was weird as horsefeathers but i ignored it because i didn't want to pile on him more

[jersey cubs fan]

basically everything about that question from derwood was weird as horsefeathers but i ignored it because i didn't want to pile on him more

 

David just scooting on past a chance to pile on derwood

[weis21]

i'm just glad he got both TJS outta the way already, personally.

[CP_414]

less than 1 WAR per season

 

Where are you getting this?

 

5.1 fWAR in 6 "seasons"

 

but fWAR doesn't like GB guys who don't strike many out.

 

Do you think that's a flaw with fWAR or do you think that's a flaw with guys who don't strike many out?

[Banedon]

[David]

 

Where are you getting this?

 

5.1 fWAR in 6 "seasons"

 

but fWAR doesn't like GB guys who don't strike many out.

 

Do you think that's a flaw with fWAR or do you think that's a flaw with guys who don't strike many out?

 

I don't think it's a flaw with anything. I just think fWAR/FIP can't be blindly applied and FIP beaters do exist.

[CP_414]

 

5.1 fWAR in 6 "seasons"

 

but fWAR doesn't like GB guys who don't strike many out.

 

Do you think that's a flaw with fWAR or do you think that's a flaw with guys who don't strike many out?

 

I don't think it's a flaw with anything. I just think fWAR/FIP can't be blindly applied and FIP beaters do exist.

 

Is Chatwood a FIP beater? His ERA is pretty close to his FIP and almost identical to his xFIP for his career. It looks to me like he's getting the results that he has deserved to this point.

[David]

 

Do you think that's a flaw with fWAR or do you think that's a flaw with guys who don't strike many out?

 

I don't think it's a flaw with anything. I just think fWAR/FIP can't be blindly applied and FIP beaters do exist.

 

Is Chatwood a FIP beater? His ERA is pretty close to his FIP and almost identical to his xFIP for his career. It looks to me like he's getting the results that he has deserved to this point.

 

I didn't say that anywhere.

 

I was explaining the reason for the discrepancy between his fWAR and his bWAR

[David]

it's weird to me that people can't see the argument for this signing being puzzling, or not all that intriguing.

 

Agreed even as someone who doesn’t outright dislike it.

 

 

Solid as a muh

 

Honestly just on pure dollars I prefer this to Cobb. Neither is an innings eater or an ace, might as well pick the cheaper one and let them coast in front of this offense for as many innings as they’ve got.

 

am i the only one who thinks "solid as a muh" and "don't outright dislike" mean very different things, even in the way of subjective statements that are open to interpretation?

[CP_414]

 

I don't think it's a flaw with anything. I just think fWAR/FIP can't be blindly applied and FIP beaters do exist.

 

Is Chatwood a FIP beater? His ERA is pretty close to his FIP and almost identical to his xFIP for his career. It looks to me like he's getting the results that he has deserved to this point.

 

I didn't say that anywhere.

 

I was explaining the reason for the discrepancy between his fWAR and his bWAR

 

Gotcha. Because you said fWAR doesn't like GB pitchers who don't strike everyone out I took it as you thinking that bWAR was more accurate for a player like Chatwood. So I'm just saying that fWAR is probably correct to not like pitchers who don't strike many out and who walk a lot, but I misinterpreted what you were saying.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

 

Do you think that's a flaw with fWAR or do you think that's a flaw with guys who don't strike many out?

 

I don't think it's a flaw with anything. I just think fWAR/FIP can't be blindly applied and FIP beaters do exist.

 

Is Chatwood a FIP beater? His ERA is pretty close to his FIP and almost identical to his xFIP for his career. It looks to me like he's getting the results that he has deserved to this point.

...did I mention he pitches in Coors?

[Bruno7481]

For every positive thing I find (statcast data, GB rate) there is something that offsets it (walk rate, strikeout rate). But, that is probably true for every 5th starter in the league.

 

Can’t really say if I like it, but I don’t hate it. How’s that for analysis?

 

I trust the research and analysis capability of the FO though.

Edited December 7, 2017 by Bruno7481

[CP_414]

 

I don't think it's a flaw with anything. I just think fWAR/FIP can't be blindly applied and FIP beaters do exist.

 

Is Chatwood a FIP beater? His ERA is pretty close to his FIP and almost identical to his xFIP for his career. It looks to me like he's getting the results that he has deserved to this point.

...did I mention he pitches in Coors?

 

Did i mention his road peripherals? That's what this whole thing is about. The guy wrote that his road peripherals are not much better than his home ones.

[CP_414]

For every positive thing I find (statcast data, GB rate) there is something that offsets it (walk rate, strikeout rate).

 

Can’t really say if I like it, but I don’t hate it. How’s that for analysis?

 

I trust the research and analysis capability of the FO though.

 

Agreed. I see why people are excited about his potential. I see why people think this isn't smart.

[Cubswin11]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/wcontreras40/status/938886894250876928[/tweet]

[Post Count Padder]

The way I see it, getting him away from Coors is a huge help, and being a ground ball pitcher helps in Wrigley. And he's an upgrade on John Lackey.

[Banedon]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/wcontreras40/status/938886894250876928[/tweet]

 

That's closer to knowing his name then Javy will ever get.

[Cubswin11]

Theo always gets his man

 

[Derwood]

basically everything about that question from derwood was weird as horsefeathers but i ignored it because i didn't want to pile on him more

 

I know nothing about him, so I was just curious. Why is that weird?

[UMFan83]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/wcontreras40/status/938886894250876928[/tweet]

I’m glad Miggy showed him the right way to tweet before he left.

[Sammy Sofa]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/wcontreras40/status/938886894250876928[/tweet]

 

That's closer to knowing his name then Javy will ever get.

 

Man, with a name like that he totally just thinks he's messaging another porn star.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/wcontreras40/status/938886894250876928[/tweet]

 

That's closer to knowing his name then Javy will ever get.

 

Javy must like fWAR more than bWAR.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

 

Is Chatwood a FIP beater? His ERA is pretty close to his FIP and almost identical to his xFIP for his career. It looks to me like he's getting the results that he has deserved to this point.

...did I mention he pitches in Coors?

 

Did i mention his road peripherals? That's what this whole thing is about. The guy wrote that his road peripherals are not much better than his home ones.

If you want to answer the question of if he is a FIP beater, you can't just look at his overall ERA compared to his FIP for obvious, altitude-involved reasons. (He is clearly a FIP beater)

[Thurman Merman]

Is Chatwood a guy who might be groomed as a closer later in his career?

without being able to strike anybody out and with a lot of walks? I doubt it.

 

Wade Davis in 2011 as a starter: 5.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

Wade Davis in 2012 as a reliever: 11.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9

 

Chatwood last year: 7.3 K/9, 4.7 BB/9

 

Not saying he will become a closer, let alone a good one like Davis, but there is precedent for a mediocre starter with a middling K/BB rate to become a dominant reliever by increasing his K rate.