Cubs sign Tyler Chatwood for 3/$38M

[CubsWin]

I completely understand those who have doubts about this signing. There's a fair amount of risk to it. His health history isn't great. He's never thrown more than 158 innings in a season. His K rate isn't special and his walks went up last season. But here's why I like this signing and why I wanted Chatwood more than Cobb (or any other FA starter) this off season (not saying the Cubs think they are an either/or proposition).

 

For all the fWAR/bWAR discussion, keep in mind he's put up those numbers while pitching half his games (roughly) in a very inhospitable environment for pitchers. Assuming health, it's not unreasonable to think he can put up 3 WAR a season for the Cubs.

 

Colorado's infield defense is middling while the Cubs' was ranked #1. His elite GB rate will translate to more success with Russell and Javy behind him.

 

This is already folded into his away splits (which are pretty darn good in a lot of respects), but his spin rate on his curve and fastball is also elite. Playing at altitude takes the edge off that advantage. With the Cubs, his spin rate can once again serve him in consistently getting better results.

 

With any performer, comfort level and confidence brings out the best in a player (just ask Maddon, he tell you, over and over again). Just knowing you don't pitch in Coors on a regular basis can arguably relax any pitcher and increase his confidence.

 

As a prospect, Chatwood had an elite curveball. In his one year with the Angels, he threw it 17.6% of the time. With the Rockies (likely due to the elevation and dry climate), he threw it much less often (4.8% in 2016 and 11.2% last season). With potential of a plus curve being thrown more often, it will only enhances his chances to keep hitters guessing and off balance.

 

There are other reasons like plus FB velocity and the fact that he signed for his age 28-30 seasons that also help.

 

Finally, cost. The years and the AAV ($12.667 million) is way better than what teams will get by signing Cobb or Lynn, two starters who I think will provide comparable performance.

 

Health is my main concern. Both Cobb and Lynn have had TJS, but Chatwood's history is even shakier. IF he can stay healthy, for me, he's clearly the best value of any MOR/BOR pitcher on the market and has a a pretty good chance to perform better than them too.

[minnesotacubsfan]

The way I look at it, the only think Lackey had over Chatwood is # of children eaten per inning.

 

I like this signing a lot

[KingCubsFan]

The way I look at it, the only think Lackey had over Chatwood is # of children eaten per inning.

 

I like this signing a lot

And health. I have my doubts that Chatwood makes it through this contract relatively unscathed.

[jersey cubs fan]

The way I look at it, the only think Lackey had over Chatwood is # of children eaten per inning.

 

I like this signing a lot

And health. I have my doubts that Chatwood makes it through this contract relatively unscathed.

As old as he is though, Lackey is bound to start losing teeth, and without all of 'em, he's nothing.

[toonsterwu]

I don't love the signing, but I'm fine with it, primarily because it's three years. This entire SP FA class was a crapshoot, in some respects, and in Chatwood, they potentially have a guy who might get better (whereas with Lynn/Cobb, I think you've largely seen their peak, although Cobb, having been out, could potentially get back there). At the end of the day, the years were as important as the player, and I really wasn't sure anyone would sign for a clear-cut three years this early. The fact that the Cubs got a younger guy to sign early affords them a lot of flexibility. I wouldn't be surprised if, like a couple years back, they let the market settle and see if someone comes cheaper than expected (like Fowler that winter). I suspect the focus now jumps to settling the pen. I mean, you hope for better, but a top four of Quintana/Hendricks/Lester/Chatwood is fine.

[davell]

I'll be shocked if we don't add a starter that's thought of more highly than Chatwood.

[Backtobanks]

I'll be shocked if we don't add a starter that's thought of more highly than Chatwood.

 

Let's hope so. Chatwood is a decent #5.

[davell]

I'll be shocked if we don't add a starter that's thought of more highly than Chatwood.

 

Let's hope so. Chatwood is a decent #5.

 

Actually, he'll be a very solid 4. But, we'll still get someone better.

[Tim]

I'll be shocked if we don't add a starter that's thought of more highly than Chatwood.

 

Let's hope so. Chatwood is a decent #5.

I wish there was a recent example of us getting a pitcher who was reputed to have awesome stuff that he just hadn't harnessed yet. Maybe someone that was really good at generating soft contact.

 

Hmm...

 

Arrieta  (2013): 7.17 k/9 4.90 bb/9 4.78 era 4.84 fip 4.61 xfip
Chatwood (2017): 7.31 k/9 4.69 bb/9 4.69 era 4.94 fip 4.27 xfip

 

Not saying it's a guarantee by any means. But I wouldn't be too quick to jump to saying Chatwood can't be anything more than a fifth starter.

[toonsterwu]

I'll be shocked if we don't add a starter that's thought of more highly than Chatwood.

 

I expect the Cubs struck early so that they didn't have to sell out for anyone, and so, I suspect, in their minds that they are hoping for another SP addition, someone on top of Chatwood. That said, I'm hard pressed to see them push hard after say ... Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta right now, and I suspect that they'll sit back on Cobb (I'm guessing that there might be a bidding war on him) and Lynn. It's tough to see, albeit not impossible, a quaity SP get traded before some other FA dominoes start to fall.

 

I just think you make this strong aggressive move early because the intent is, seemingly, offer some flexibility on decisions as it pertains to SP. I really figure they are going to go full-bore on the RP market and then see what happens with the SP market. Maybe someone (specifically, I'm thinking about Arrieta) gets left standing, to the point where maybe you can offer something like a 3/4 year deal, where the player can opt out after Year 1/2.

 

Again, not suggesting that the Cubs are topping out with Chatwood. Just that this move seems to be an attempt to avoid getting jammed by any FA options.

[davell]

Chatwood was a "makes sense" move. You now head into the WM's with 4 starters taken care of. I think I was wrong, after reading the post-Ohtani articles, it DOES seem we're definitely still looking at the better FA options.

 

I'm sure they'll weigh the FA versus the trade options and go from there. Yesterday, I definitely figured trade. Now, I'm 50/50. Our LT situation is better than I had even thought. But, it does mean I expect us to add a very good SP somehow.

[Backtobanks]

I'll be shocked if we don't add a starter that's thought of more highly than Chatwood.

 

Let's hope so. Chatwood is a decent #5.

I wish there was a recent example of us getting a pitcher who was reputed to have awesome stuff that he just hadn't harnessed yet. Maybe someone that was really good at generating soft contact.

 

Hmm...

 

Arrieta  (2013): 7.17 k/9 4.90 bb/9 4.78 era 4.84 fip 4.61 xfip
Chatwood (2017): 7.31 k/9 4.69 bb/9 4.69 era 4.94 fip 4.27 xfip

 

Not saying it's a guarantee by any means. But I wouldn't be too quick to jump to saying Chatwood can't be anything more than a fifth starter.

 

I never said that "Chatwood can't be anything more than a fifth starter", but I would think that the FO isn't going into the season without planning on a starter with a better/more consistent track record on a team trying to get to the WS.

[Tim]

 

Let's hope so. Chatwood is a decent #5.

I wish there was a recent example of us getting a pitcher who was reputed to have awesome stuff that he just hadn't harnessed yet. Maybe someone that was really good at generating soft contact.

 

Hmm...

 

Arrieta  (2013): 7.17 k/9 4.90 bb/9 4.78 era 4.84 fip 4.61 xfip
Chatwood (2017): 7.31 k/9 4.69 bb/9 4.69 era 4.94 fip 4.27 xfip

 

Not saying it's a guarantee by any means. But I wouldn't be too quick to jump to saying Chatwood can't be anything more than a fifth starter.

 

I never said that "Chatwood can't be anything more than a fifth starter", but I would think that the FO isn't going into the season without planning on a starter with a better/more consistent track record on a team trying to get to the WS.

Both true. I just really wanted an excuse to trot out the parallels between Arrieta and Chatwood.