The Alex Cobb Thread

[philosophizer75]

GET EM BOTH AND OHTANI.

 

And then we can go with a 6 man rotation to allow Ohtani more chances to hit between starts.

[jehr]

I'm kind of surprised there's been nothing in the Cobb front since the Chatwoodv signing. With Othani off the board, he's got to be the next target, right?

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm kind of surprised there's been nothing in the Cobb front since the Chatwoodv signing.

The Chatwood signing just happened, you aren't going to hear anything about it until/if it happens.

[David]

Cobb is the best combination of performance, potential, and cost on the Free Agent market.

I'd be okay with Cobb on a 4-year deal at 14 per, but for me the best combo of performance, potential and cost is Tyler Chatwood.

 

Cobb is a more skilled pitcher and better baseline performer than Chatwood.

Solid as a muh

 

Honestly just on pure dollars I prefer this to Cobb. Neither is an innings eater or an ace, might as well pick the cheaper one and let them coast in front of this offense for as many innings as they’ve got.

[Cubswin11]

I'm kind of surprised there's been nothing in the Cobb front since the Chatwoodv signing. With Othani off the board, he's got to be the next target, right?

I think part was waiting for Ohtani but also it seems like a lot more teams are in on Cobb (us, Yankees, most of the Ohtani finalist I’ve seen mentioned, Twins and others). Could be he’s weighing offers or his price is just too high for us now for years/money. Could easily see 4 years guaranteed being the floor for him (may take even 5) and probably $15-$20 aav (probably closer to 20 than 15). At that I’d probably prefer going after Darvish or Arrieta for another year or 2 at about $25 aav.

Edited December 8, 2017 by Cubswin11

[Tryptamine]

With the Yankees in heavy on Cobb, I get the feeling that the days of hoping for 4/48 or even 4/60 are long gone and we're probably looking at something like 5/85 or 4/70 now.

[Tim]

I'm guessing we'll trade for the other starter at this point.

[Cubswin11]

I'm guessing we'll trade for the other starter at this point.

I hope not, personally. I hope we just spend money on it. I’d even rather do something like sign 2 of Jaime Garcia, Hellickson, Chacin, Feldman, Cahill, etc for the #5 spot and with Monty and even Chatwood just Dodger it and play 10 day DL games with the 4/5 spots and rotate guys in and out of it through the year than trade any of our position players for pitchers and/or if we want to stay out of the upper-middle tier of FA SPs.

Edited December 8, 2017 by Cubswin11

[Tryptamine]

I'm guessing we'll trade for the other starter at this point.

 

I really hope you're wrong unless someone really likes Happ a whole lot.

[Cubswin11]

 

 

The Cubs added right-hander Tyler Chatwood on a three-year, $38MM guarantee this week, but another sizable investment for their rotation could be on the way. With the Winter Meetings nearing, they’re making a “strong push” to sign free agent righty Alex Cobb, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago reports. Their hope is to reach a deal with Cobb prior to Monday, which would enable them to turn their focus elsewhere during the meetings and prevent other suitors from aggressively pursuing the 30-year-old.

[David]

Besides bullpen guys, I wonder what else we do if/when we sign Cobb.

 

Might we still try to trade from the positional depth for another starter? I wonder how serious the 6 man staff whispers are (and if that was only a thing with Ohtani...Cobb and Chatwood both seem to have similar potential innings concerns).

[davell]

Besides bullpen guys, I wonder what else we do if/when we sign Cobb.

 

Might we still try to trade from the positional depth for another starter? I wonder how serious the 6 man staff whispers are (and if that was only a thing with Ohtani...Cobb and Chatwood both seem to have similar potential innings concerns).

 

I keep noticing that popping up, but its just been writers insinuating it, with no quotes from anyone on the subject. If they do get Cobb, I'd suspect some small moves for additional depth. But, I don't think they'd still pursue an Archer deal or anything like that. I think it'd have been a hot topic all off season if we were doing a true 6 man.

[Gilby]

And there's still Montgomery. I can't imagine significant assets would be used to get another starter if Cobb is added.

[David]

Besides bullpen guys, I wonder what else we do if/when we sign Cobb.

 

Might we still try to trade from the positional depth for another starter? I wonder how serious the 6 man staff whispers are (and if that was only a thing with Ohtani...Cobb and Chatwood both seem to have similar potential innings concerns).

 

I keep noticing that popping up, but its just been writers insinuating it, with no quotes from anyone on the subject. If they do get Cobb, I'd suspect some small moves for additional depth. But, I don't think they'd still pursue an Archer deal or anything like that. I think it'd have been a hot topic all off season if we were doing a true 6 man.

 

I don't think the local beat writers would be pulling it out of their ass without hearing whispers at least. They aren't smart/creative enough for that. Way too outside the box for them.

[Cubswin11]

Besides bullpen guys, I wonder what else we do if/when we sign Cobb.

 

Might we still try to trade from the positional depth for another starter? I wonder how serious the 6 man staff whispers are (and if that was only a thing with Ohtani...Cobb and Chatwood both seem to have similar potential innings concerns).

 

I keep noticing that popping up, but its just been writers insinuating it, with no quotes from anyone on the subject. If they do get Cobb, I'd suspect some small moves for additional depth. But, I don't think they'd still pursue an Archer deal or anything like that. I think it'd have been a hot topic all off season if we were doing a true 6 man.

 

I don't think the local beat writers would be pulling it out of their ass without hearing whispers at least. They aren't smart/creative enough for that. Way too outside the box for them.

Yeah agree they have to be hearing something, they aren’t creative enough and it’s kind of an out there idea to just be throwing around. These are the same guys who think a position player must be traded because there aren’t enough abs to go around even tho Maddon has proven it out the last 3 years there’s plenty. Cobb then a Bucholz, Pineda in a 1+ option year, Chacin, etc along with Monty would allow for a 6-man imo.

[davell]

That could be true. Didn't look at it like that. If they do add Cobb though, there's no way they're going after Chacin. He'll cost a pretty decent amount himself. With Pineda or Smyly missing most or all of 2018, I kind of doubt they're fits for us either. That's just extra money you're carrying under the LT for 2018, that could be used to help immediately.

[Cubswin11]

That could be true. Didn't look at it like that. If they do add Cobb though, there's no way they're going after Chacin. He'll cost a pretty decent amount himself. With Pineda or Smyly missing most or all of 2018, I kind of doubt they're fits for us either. That's just extra money you're carrying under the LT for 2018, that could be used to help immediately.

Fair enough, Liriano would also be an intriguing option. He either helps move Monty to part of a 6-man or he may even be able to make some starts himself and I think he’s a potentially elite relief option in a multi inning sense. Either way, get Cobb and can wait out the FA market and grab a guy late who doesn’t sign for the 6th man/depth role.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Besides bullpen guys, I wonder what else we do if/when we sign Cobb.

 

Might we still try to trade from the positional depth for another starter? I wonder how serious the 6 man staff whispers are (and if that was only a thing with Ohtani...Cobb and Chatwood both seem to have similar potential innings concerns).

 

I have to think at that point you're going with Montgomery as the 6th starter.

 

If I had to wager a guess, I think the big benefit of signing Cobb is finishing the rotation so you know the magnitude of the resources they could commit to the bullpen. You wouldn't want to trade for, say, Brad Hand, without being certain you don't need those same trade assets for the rotation(since the system isn't really deep enough for both).

[Cubswin11]

Besides bullpen guys, I wonder what else we do if/when we sign Cobb.

 

Might we still try to trade from the positional depth for another starter? I wonder how serious the 6 man staff whispers are (and if that was only a thing with Ohtani...Cobb and Chatwood both seem to have similar potential innings concerns).

 

I have to think at that point you're going with Montgomery as the 6th starter.

 

If I had to wager a guess, I think the big benefit of signing Cobb is finishing the rotation so you know the magnitude of the resources they could commit to the bullpen. You wouldn't want to trade for, say, Brad Hand, without being certain you don't need those same trade assets for the rotation(since the system isn't really deep enough for both).

This makes plenty of sense and seems very reasonable

[CubsWin]

I'm split on signing Cobb. At this point, the minimum number of years they can get him for is 4 with the possibility of having to go 5. The AAV sounds like it will be at least 16 per maybe more. At that price, you're getting a guy for his 30-33 years or possibly 30-34 who's health track record isn't the greatest and who's stuff is decent enough (hard contact rate was way up last year) but without much upside (91-93 on his FB, control dependent). This sounds like paying for past performance (he was really good before TJS in 2013 & 2014) of which there isn't that much.

 

I get that he's solid and the Cubs are in a championship window in which having certainty and solidity in the backend of your rotation is helpful. But signing someone like Cobb at 4/64 or 5/75 or 80 doesn't excite me going forward. He's produced fairly decent GB rates so maybe he plays up with the excellent Cubs IF defense behind him, but I just don't like the probable years and AAV.

 

I'll feel a lot better if it's 4/56. Maybe I'm splitting hairs Like I said, I'm torn. 2 mill a year isn't that big of a deal for a team like the Cubs. It's his apparent lack of upside (as I see it, I'm open to having someone sway me otherwise) and the backend of a 4-5 year contract that scares me.

[Gilby]

Yeah I like Chatwood and Cobb enough individually, but together I'm not totally enthused. Neither have any sort of track record of durability and neither will be that cheap. Plus, with Lester exiting his prime, I was hoping for a little more than locking into Chatwood AND Cobb for 3+ years.

 

On the other hand, if they plan on using Montgomery a lot as the 6th starter, durability might not be a big issue. Also, if the Super Offense is formed prior to 2019, it won't much matter who's pitching.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Cobb is a year removed from TJS and has a qualifying offer attached, so while I like him a lot I'm very skeptical he's going to get something like 5/80.

[Cubswin11]

I get part of it could be urgency/having things set (going a little higher than comfortable on Cobb now gets it done and let’s you move to the bullpen) and maybe Darvish is not ready to sign with but if 5/80 is what it takes to get Cobb I’d rather go 6/140-150 on Darvish.

[KingCubsFan]

Besides bullpen guys, I wonder what else we do if/when we sign Cobb.

 

Might we still try to trade from the positional depth for another starter? I wonder how serious the 6 man staff whispers are (and if that was only a thing with Ohtani...Cobb and Chatwood both seem to have similar potential innings concerns).

 

I keep noticing that popping up, but its just been writers insinuating it, with no quotes from anyone on the subject. If they do get Cobb, I'd suspect some small moves for additional depth. But, I don't think they'd still pursue an Archer deal or anything like that. I think it'd have been a hot topic all off season if we were doing a true 6 man.

 

I don't think the local beat writers would be pulling it out of their ass without hearing whispers at least. They aren't smart/creative enough for that. Way too outside the box for them.

I think it was Muskat (no idea why I was reading her) who said that Maddon actually wanted to do it last year but Bosio and certain veterans (going to assume Arrieta and Lackey) were against it.

[Bertz]

I doubt they're going to go on full six man rotation, but I wouldn't be surprised if the plan is for Montgomery to make 10ish starts even if no one hits the DL. Have the plan from the outset be 30 starts each for the top guys and Montgomery pick up the other 12. Maybe pick up a little more slack for Chatwood in particular.

 

I don't love Cobb after signing Chatwood. I saw them as either/or. Theo must like the idea of trading for relievers and signing starters. I thought with the supply of good setup men the opposite made sense, but we obviously don't know their current asking prices.