The Alex Cobb Thread

[David]

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The day after new pitching coach Jim Hickey went on the team’s flagship radio station and told WSCR-AM 670 that he would recommend the free agent to Theo Epstein’s front office – “I would say, ‘Go ahead, good job, yeah, I’m onboard’ – Cobb appeared on MLB Network Radio and sounded ready to follow Maddon to Chicago.

 

“As much of an honor as it is to be given a qualifying offer,” Cobb said Friday, “to hear your name floating around (in) rumors with potential teams, and the magnitude or the (reputations) that some of these teams have for success, year in and year out, even the smallest inkling or the thought that they want you is even more of a humbling experience.

 

“I don’t hide the fact that I’ve got the most respect for Joe Maddon and what he did for me coming up as a player. Not so much as a pitcher on the mound, but as a professional athlete and a professional baseball player, and how to deal with the mental side of the game. And how to deal with the stresses that come with a big-league lifestyle.

 

“There’s nobody better in the game to control (that) and deal with people.”

 

Hickey can help fill in the blanks for the Cubs because he was there for Cobb’s rise through the Tampa Bay system, injuries issues and recovery process.

 

“I can’t say enough good things about him,” Cobb said. “He’s become – not only a pitching coach – but a real close friend of mine. Obviously, if we move down the line and we’re able to have some discussions with them, I’d be very honored to be able to talk with them and hopefully come to a deal.”

 

In the same way that Maddon may have gotten restless managing the small-market Rays, Cobb sounded eager to play for the kind of built-to-last team that won the 2016 World Series and advanced to the National League Championship Series in three consecutive seasons.

 

“You kind of make a ranking system of what is most important to you and your family,” Cobb said. “No. 1 and foremost – and me and my wife are both onboard with this – is that we’re going to go to a place that we feel is going to be winners for the length of the contract.

 

“I’ve been through both. I’ve been through losing seasons and I’ve been through winning seasons. And the amount of joy that winning brings to us – it can’t be replaced by a dollar figure.”

Edited November 11, 2017 by David

[Bote McBoteface]

Just let it be known that I already made the first "Our Cobb will never win" joke.

[davell]

Cobbs?

[Cubswin11]

As long as his asking price/market doesn’t go beyond 4 years and ~$75mil guaranteed I kinda just assume we are gonna get him.

[ConstableRabbit]

Cobb, on the Cubs: Cubs (in) on the Cobb, Cobb on the Cubs!

[Bull]

Cobb, on the Cubs: Cubs (in) on the Cobb, Cobb on the Cubs!

Stop it with the corny Cobb puns.

 

I really feel like this was part of the plan from day one, to grow hitters and woo pitchers. Maddon and Hickey are a big part (all?) of that. Archer and Price may have been the intended targets, but I feel like getting a TB arm was part of what was in mind when he was hired. Hiring Hickey reinforces this in my “all things are connected” mind.

[SouthSideRyan]

Cobb, on the Cubs: Cubs (in) on the Cobb, Cobb on the Cubs!

 

We killed NCCubFan for less than this.

[weis21]

Cobb, on the Cubs: Cubs (in) on the Cobb, Cobb on the Cubs!

 

We killed NCCubFan for less than this.

Was NCCF scottish? perhaps we "kilt" him :-)

[toonsterwu]

Provided the dollars and years are okay, he's really the only FA pitcher I sorta want. Even then, I have some concerns, but I'm not enthused about the years and cost of the high end, and I really am not keen on the rest of the middle tier. Get Cobb, take a couple SP fliers/cheap options, add a closer, and the pitching side is fairly set.

 

All that said, he may want to come here, but the market is going to dictate things, and plenty of teams are flush with money.

[David]

i've never seen an unsigned FA talk so directly about how much he wants to go to a specific place...that's damn near dawson blank check horsefeathers right there (not that money is *actually* going to be a complete non-factor). Edited November 12, 2017 by David

[toonsterwu]

I agree, it is rather rare to hear a FA talk so openly about things because it could be construed, to other teams, as a sign, and as a result, could somewhat limit said player's market. That said, it is a somewhat unique scenario with his former manager plus his recently fired pitching coach.

 

Hey, I'll be the first to say despite all my cold water attempts, it does feel like things are lining up on Cobb (although I still have doubts that it's 4/48, or whatever has been rumored. I wouldn't be shocked if it's closer to say, 4/60, and more importantly, I wouldn't be shocked if they tried to negotiate some sort of Wei-Yin Chen contract (that is, a multi-year deal where the player has the ability to opt out and get back into FA, but to protect the team, the contract gets a bit backloaded). In this case, it sorta makes sense for Cobb - he's a good FA asset now ... but another full year's of work, plus if he gets closer to his 2013/2014 form ... and he could be looking at a Jeff Samardzija/Wei-Yin Chen type contract from a few winters ago.

[17 Seconds]

it's nice that free agents who want a winning culture actually want to come here now

[Clem Fandango]

Take this with a boulder of salt, but it's slow so and I'm bored whatever...

 

Some rando on Reddit who claims he has a friend who works for the org says Cobb is signing with the Cubs this week. 4 years around $60-$63 mil.

[David]

Take this with a boulder of salt, but it's slow so and I'm bored whatever...

 

Some rando on Reddit who claims he has a friend who works for the org says Cobb is signing with the Cubs this week. 4 years around $60-$63 mil.

Is that the same guy who leaked quintana

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Take this with a boulder of salt, but it's slow so and I'm bored whatever...

 

Some rando on Reddit who claims he has a friend who works for the org says Cobb is signing with the Cubs this week. 4 years around $60-$63 mil.

Is that the same guy who leaked quintana

 

No(that guy's source was with the Sox),but they appear to believe this poster knows someone in the Cubs org.

[David]

Take this with a boulder of salt, but it's slow so and I'm bored whatever...

 

Some rando on Reddit who claims he has a friend who works for the org says Cobb is signing with the Cubs this week. 4 years around $60-$63 mil.

Is that the same guy who leaked quintana

 

No(that guy's source was with the Sox),but they appear to believe this poster knows someone in the Cubs org.

 

i wish he had a funnier name but at least it has a nice ending

[Cubswin11]

Wish it was 3 years but the aav isn’t bad

[CyHawk_Cub]

Same. Really didn't want to give him 4 years, but I realize that's what the market is for him in all likelihood. If it takes a 5th year, horsefeathers that noise.

[Bote McBoteface]

Its a pretty good guess to make even if he has no inside info. I believe its gonna happen, dont know if I believe random reddit has done anything more than guess.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Bruce Levine[/url]"]The Cubs have a few offers on the table for starting pitching and relief specialists, sources said. Free-agent right-hander Alex Cobb is believed to be mulling over offers from the Cubs and other clubs on multi-year proposals. Cobb, 30, was 12-10 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP last season and is a couple years removed from Tommy John surgery.

[toonsterwu]

Cobb is still the easiest option, as it gets us a quality starter, although I suspect the bidding could get going after Ohtani signs. Maybe a team pushes hard now to get Cobb inked. If you can keep it at 4 years, I think anything under say, 4/72 you can sort of swallow and live with (I've argued before that Cobb, if he had a strong season next year, might be in line for say, a Samardzija/Wei-Yin Chen type deal from 2 years ago). Admittedly, 4/72 is on the high end.

 

I don't know what his agent's style is, but I'd very much like to avoid an opt out here, particularly after 1 year (After 2, I'd be a bit better with that) but I could see Cobb's agents pushing for an opt-out to try and get him back on the market again. If it's an opt out after 2 years, we've conceivably gotten him at a decent rate for 2 years.

 

Get Cobb, take a flier or two in FA on 5th starters (or if they want, bring back John Lackey), and focus on the pen. After that, shore up anything else on the side. That was always the easiest route this off-season. An off-season of not moving assets will likely give the farm the ability to find some legs, which should help around mid-season as well.

[Bertz]

ZiPS has Cobb worth 3/39. It's not gospel obviously, but you generally see signings in its projected neighborhood. I could see a 4th year to help with the luxury tax, but he's not getting 18 million a year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The 4/60ish range mentioned in that reddit thread, while maybe not actually sourced info, feels right. It's one year and/or a couple mil of AAV past what you'd consider a real good deal, and despite Cobb being an attractive enough candidate there are enough downmarket options of close enough quality and enough red flags to keep his bidding from spiraling.

 

Speaking of Cobb the pitcher, I really would like to get him in, because I think on the Cubs in particular he has a chance to be pretty good. He's been a pretty consistent FIP-beater, in part because he gets ground balls. Sticking with Hickey, moving to the NL and the Cubs defense could be very positive developments. Plus last year he got stronger as the year went on and was further removed from his surgery. I know Cubs Insider did some piece about his pitch mix or statcast FIP for a 2 month span, but frankly I don't think that is even a little bit important. Cobb is the best combination of performance, potential, and cost on the Free Agent market.

[CubsWin]

Cobb is the best combination of performance, potential, and cost on the Free Agent market.

I'd be okay with Cobb on a 4-year deal at 14 per, but for me the best combo of performance, potential and cost is Tyler Chatwood.

[CubsWin]

Cobb is the best combination of performance, potential, and cost on the Free Agent market.

I'd be okay with Cobb on a 4-year deal at 14 per, but for me the best combo of performance, potential and cost is Tyler Chatwood.

 

Cobb is a more skilled pitcher and better baseline performer than Chatwood.

According to you. (By the way, you left out potential and cost.)

 

For me, Chatwood's potential is higher because his stuff looks to be better and he's younger. His cost (and likely length of contract) by all estimates will be lower. Plus his performance away from Coors Field is better than Cobb's most recent numbers. So for those 3 criteria, I lean Chatwood. I would agree Cobb presents less risk right now.