Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Those guys were all much different.

 

In Contreras, you have:

• A homegrown player who signed with the organization at age 17
  A player who is at/near his prime and will still be only 30 years old on Opening Day 2023
  One of, if not the, best offensive Catcher in the league
  A player who, by all accounts, wants nothing more than to stay with the Cubs
  A team leader on and off the field
  

 

Why wouldn't he be the type of guy that you want to reward with a multi-year deal, or at least attempt to get a deal done? If the team is planning to compete somewhere around 2024-2025, a 32 year old Contreras could still be a key contributor on that team.

 

I'd disagree about the prime bit, but I don't mean to say they're all equivalent or that no one should want to keep Willson(I've said many times that's my preference). And even if the team were in the playoff race I think you'd see consternation about keeping him because he's good, same way that I'm sure that consternation existed for the Dodgers and Seager last year or the Yankees and Judge this year. But the larger point is the more meta conversation about the nature of player tenures and a person's attachment to the team is very much driven by the team's success more than how often they keep the current crowd favorites.

[squally1313]

I still watch games all the time, but I understand the sentiment and I know several people who used to follow the Cubs very closely and have basically stopped watching them entirely over the past few years. There is risk involved in operating the team like an analytical sports simulation, which can be contradictory to maintaining a fan base over the long term. There is a point where the "smart" business move might not be the best thing for the long term health of the franchise. Do you really want to sever one of the last links to the 2016 championship team (Contreras), while creating yet another giant hole to fill? How can you expect to build a loyal fan base if the organization fails to reciprocate that loyalty to both the fans and players? Maybe this new rebuild works and we have another 3-4 year playoff run, but then what? Then it's time to trade Davis, PCA, Amaya, etc. and start over again. We can't expect the team to re-sign everyone all the time, but there are times when re-signing a player might be the right thing to do even though the computer says otherwise. Contreras is the exact type of player that the team should be looking to keep around and bridge the gap to the proverbial "next great Cubs team", yet somehow that idea has never seriously been entertained. It's one thing to rebuild and be smart about spending money, but this team shouldn't be operating like the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

To play devils advocate: If the team wins, the fans will be there. We're now 6 years removed from the WS team. It sucks that it played out this way but, as a comparison, here are key members of the 2016 team that were on the roster in 2014:

 

Rizzo (breakout season in 2014)

Baez (hit .169, spent most of 2015 in the minors)

Coghlan (traded from Oakland in 2016)

Arrieta (breakout 2014)

Hendricks (called up down the stretch, pitched great)

Rondon

Strop

Grimm

 

That's 8 guys (and stretching it a lot on Coghlan and Grimm) that were on the team just 2 years before the 2016 team. This is a bad team right now, it's been a bad team for a whole calendar year. Yes, a lot of that is self inflicted, which is garbage, but the fans (which are already showing up) will be selling the place out as soon as the record flips, regardless of the players on the field.

 

Agreed, success (both individual and team) is always going to be the biggest driver. No one bemoaned losing the connection to the success of 2016 when Almora or Russell was kicked to the curb, or got contemplative about the business of baseball when they moved on from Quintana or Chatwood. People are dying to not look at Heyward in a Cubs uni anymore, it's always gonna come down to the belief that they can continue to be successful and play a part in the team continuing to be successful.

 

That said, I think the front office(and I say front office because I believe the org's current state is about 90% front office driven and 10% ownership) really could stand to do what it takes to avoid this circumstance with *all* of the next round of players. Reward Nico with an extension that buys out some FA years, plant a flag on Morel with a longer term deal, or show faith in Steele or Thompson with guaranteed money. There's value in not being on the 6 year treadmill with every young player who lands at your feet, and while there is risk involved(e.g. no one is putting Bote's name on the roster in pen), it's a useful and ultimately small thing they can do to signal their intent even if the bigger statements of intent like large FA deals are (sometimes justifiably) not the best choice for the moment.

 

Don't disagree on those points, but just to piggyback off your post my earlier one, I do think what we've seen the last couple years is at least a little bit a result of the path they decided to take back in the early 2010s, which was essentially purge the entire organization and start from the ground up. The end result of that being that you had a core that was largely the same age and the same contract status. The disappointment is that the 'waves and waves' just ended up being one pretty incredible first wave, and they weren't able to supplement enough (although you could argue that they were playing meaningful baseball in October for 5 out of 6 years from 2015-2020, so...). Looking at the current roster, I don't see that being the case in terms of how this turns into the next great Cubs team. There's talent at every level, there's money to be spent this offseason and the next one based on expiring contracts...they should be able to space this thing out a little bit better.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Don't disagree on those points, but just to piggyback off your post my earlier one, I do think what we've seen the last couple years is at least a little bit a result of the path they decided to take back in the early 2010s, which was essentially purge the entire organization and start from the ground up. The end result of that being that you had a core that was largely the same age and the same contract status. The disappointment is that the 'waves and waves' just ended up being one pretty incredible first wave, and they weren't able to supplement enough (although you could argue that they were playing meaningful baseball in October for 5 out of 6 years from 2015-2020, so...). Looking at the current roster, I don't see that being the case in terms of how this turns into the next great Cubs team. There's talent at every level, there's money to be spent this offseason and the next one based on expiring contracts...they should be able to space this thing out a little bit better.

 

Absolutely. A great example is that in making that post you quoted, I scanned the roster for the next players who are potentially in the Happ/Contreras keep/trade conundrum soon, and Nico is basically the only one until like 2025.

[muntjack]

I said this when Javy was traded but my days as a win at all costs, to-hell-with-sentimentality fan are over. It's still ~90%, but they won it all, I was there, and it was more than perfect. I now assign greater value to watching my favorite players play for my favorite team. Even this six game streak on a losing team has been fun because Contreras and Happ are hitting, I get to watch Morel continue to turn into a thing, Keegan, etc.

 

Waves and waves is great in theory, but to keep turning beloved cubs into 45FV dudes in an attempt to make that happen isn't doing it for me anymore.

[squally1313]

I said this when Javy was traded but my days as a win at all costs, to-hell-with-sentimentality fan are over. It's still ~90%, but they won it all, I was there, and it was more than perfect. I now assign greater value to watching my favorite players play for my favorite team. Even this six game streak on a losing team has been fun because Contreras and Happ are hitting, I get to watch Morel continue to turn into a thing, Keegan, etc.

 

Waves and waves is great in theory, but to keep turning beloved cubs into 45FV dudes in an attempt to make that happen isn't doing it for me anymore.

You understand the chances of Morel even getting to Wrigley would decrease significantly if Javy was still a Cub right?

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Agreed, success (both individual and team) is always going to be the biggest driver. No one bemoaned losing the connection to the success of 2016 when Almora or Russell was kicked to the curb, or got contemplative about the business of baseball when they moved on from Quintana or Chatwood. People are dying to not look at Heyward in a Cubs uni anymore

 

I can’t believe you’re capable of such stunning…I dunno dishonesty doesn’t sound like the right word, but I’m just in awe

[muntjack]

I said this when Javy was traded but my days as a win at all costs, to-hell-with-sentimentality fan are over. It's still ~90%, but they won it all, I was there, and it was more than perfect. I now assign greater value to watching my favorite players play for my favorite team. Even this six game streak on a losing team has been fun because Contreras and Happ are hitting, I get to watch Morel continue to turn into a thing, Keegan, etc.

 

Waves and waves is great in theory, but to keep turning beloved cubs into 45FV dudes in an attempt to make that happen isn't doing it for me anymore.

You understand the chances of Morel even getting to Wrigley would decrease significantly if Javy was still a Cub right?

 

Sorry, I wasn't very clear. Javy is the most exciting player I've ever seen, he is our household's favorite player, he was integral to winning the WS and I wanted them to extend him. I like Morel. He's cool.

 

 

Now it's Willson, who I also have strong feelings about. Yes, I might like watching Campusano or whoever in a couple of years but I'd rather stop logjamming guys at South Bend/Myrtle Beach and just go ahead and make another push with the last great player of the most legendary cubs team of all time.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Agreed, success (both individual and team) is always going to be the biggest driver. No one bemoaned losing the connection to the success of 2016 when Almora or Russell was kicked to the curb, or got contemplative about the business of baseball when they moved on from Quintana or Chatwood. People are dying to not look at Heyward in a Cubs uni anymore

 

I can’t believe you’re capable of such stunning…I dunno dishonesty doesn’t sound like the right word, but I’m just in awe

 

I feel like I clarified in the follow up to Irrelevant Dude, but the takeaway isn't 'wow I can't believe you guys care about losing Willson', it's that in general the overall feelings of (dis)engagement are way more correlated to the success of the team than the way the roster is managed.

[Tim]

I'll be a fan of anyone they bring up or bring in. As long as they are good. And I'll be a lot more invested overall if the team wins.

[muntjack]

If I thought the team was 2011 bad, I'd say let the old guard go.

 

But.....

 

Morel

Nico

Suzuki

Contreras

Happ

Wisdom

 

Those six could be in the starting lineup of a WS team. Two are over 30. Yes, it needs supplementing. Yes, the rotation needs an ace.

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but if this big market team signed Josh Bell and Joe Musgrove, they would be the favorites in the central. I don't accept that we should pass on those opportunities in favor of the enticing potential of waves and waves. We have a strong farm already. Trade the relievers and make it #1. Then start adding.

[squally1313]

I said this when Javy was traded but my days as a win at all costs, to-hell-with-sentimentality fan are over. It's still ~90%, but they won it all, I was there, and it was more than perfect. I now assign greater value to watching my favorite players play for my favorite team. Even this six game streak on a losing team has been fun because Contreras and Happ are hitting, I get to watch Morel continue to turn into a thing, Keegan, etc.

 

Waves and waves is great in theory, but to keep turning beloved cubs into 45FV dudes in an attempt to make that happen isn't doing it for me anymore.

You understand the chances of Morel even getting to Wrigley would decrease significantly if Javy was still a Cub right?

 

Sorry, I wasn't very clear. Javy is the most exciting player I've ever seen, he is our household's favorite player, he was integral to winning the WS and I wanted them to extend him. I like Morel. He's cool.

 

 

Now it's Willson, who I also have strong feelings about. Yes, I might like watching Campusano or whoever in a couple of years but I'd rather stop logjamming guys at South Bend/Myrtle Beach and just go ahead and make another push with the last great player of the most legendary cubs team of all time.

 

I will not stand for the Kyle Hendricks erasure.

 

Look, the issue isn't that Campusano might manage to produce a cheaper WAR/$ over the next 5 years or whatever. I'm trying to make the best of a shitty situation. The Cubs as an organization and revenue producing company should not really have any budget constraints compared to the rest of the league. It's [expletive] that they do. But they do, and all indications are that they will. Signing a 30 year old catcher putting up career numbers in a walk year to a long term deal, serious money deal is going to, unfortunately, limit what we can do elsewhere. If we were fans of another team, I'd be all for trading for him and throwing him in the middle of a pennant race, but I wouldn't want to sign him to a 5 year deal.

 

(but also, selfishly and three beers deep, go get a horsefeathering haul for him and then bring him back in December on some hometown discount)

[jersey cubs fan]

Hey man if we could withstand the loss of Coghlan we can handle anything

[soccer10k]

The Cubs as an organization and revenue producing company should not really have any budget constraints compared to the rest of the league. It's [expletive] that they do. But they do, and all indications are that they will. Signing a 30 year old catcher putting up career numbers in a walk year to a long term deal, serious money deal is going to, unfortunately, limit what we can do elsewhere.

 

The Cubs don’t have budget constraints. They’re choosing not to spend money. There’s a big difference there.

[squally1313]

The Cubs as an organization and revenue producing company should not really have any budget constraints compared to the rest of the league. It's [expletive] that they do. But they do, and all indications are that they will. Signing a 30 year old catcher putting up career numbers in a walk year to a long term deal, serious money deal is going to, unfortunately, limit what we can do elsewhere.

 

The Cubs don’t have budget constraints. They’re choosing not to spend money. There’s a big difference there.

 

We’re splitting hairs right? Ownership directives is a budget constraint to me. I try to do whatever I can to remove them from the equation.

[soccer10k]

The Cubs as an organization and revenue producing company should not really have any budget constraints compared to the rest of the league. It's [expletive] that they do. But they do, and all indications are that they will. Signing a 30 year old catcher putting up career numbers in a walk year to a long term deal, serious money deal is going to, unfortunately, limit what we can do elsewhere.

 

The Cubs don’t have budget constraints. They’re choosing not to spend money. There’s a big difference there.

 

We’re splitting hairs right? Ownership directives is a budget constraint to me. I try to do whatever I can to remove them from the equation.

 

Not when ownership is straight up lying about how much money they have to spend. It's all part of the equation.

 

If I clearly have the income to spend X on a new car and could do so without overextending myself at all or preventing myself from making other significant purchases by doing so, but instead I choose to limit myself to 60% of X as what I want to spend, my budget constraint isn't 60% of X. It's still X. I'm just choosing to limit myself to 60% of X to spend on a car.

[imb]

 

The Cubs don’t have budget constraints. They’re choosing not to spend money. There’s a big difference there.

 

We’re splitting hairs right? Ownership directives is a budget constraint to me. I try to do whatever I can to remove them from the equation.

 

Not when ownership is straight up lying about how much money they have to spend. It's all part of the equation.

 

If I clearly have the income to spend X on a new car and could do so without overextending myself at all or preventing myself from making other significant purchases by doing so, but instead I choose to limit myself to 60% of X as what I want to spend, my budget constraint isn't 60% of X. It's still X. I'm just choosing to limit myself to 60% of X to spend on a car.

 

yeah but he's talking about the constraints that ownership puts on the GM.

 

you can spend whatever you want on a car, but if you tell your kid they can only spend 60%, they can only spend 60%

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Agreed, success (both individual and team) is always going to be the biggest driver. No one bemoaned losing the connection to the success of 2016 when Almora or Russell was kicked to the curb, or got contemplative about the business of baseball when they moved on from Quintana or Chatwood. People are dying to not look at Heyward in a Cubs uni anymore

 

I can’t believe you’re capable of such stunning…I dunno dishonesty doesn’t sound like the right word, but I’m just in awe

 

I feel like I clarified in the follow up to Irrelevant Dude, but the takeaway isn't 'wow I can't believe you guys care about losing Willson', it's that in general the overall feelings of (dis)engagement are way more correlated to the success of the team than the way the roster is managed.

 

But you talked about “current crowd favorites” and listed a bunch of guys everybody hated.

 

People knew last year Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant being kept would almost certainly be overpays based on past performance and there was a lot of bemoaning when they were kicked to the curb.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

I can’t believe you’re capable of such stunning…I dunno dishonesty doesn’t sound like the right word, but I’m just in awe

 

I feel like I clarified in the follow up to Irrelevant Dude, but the takeaway isn't 'wow I can't believe you guys care about losing Willson', it's that in general the overall feelings of (dis)engagement are way more correlated to the success of the team than the way the roster is managed.

 

But you talked about “current crowd favorites” and listed a bunch of guys everybody hated.

 

People knew last year Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant being kept would almost certainly be overpays based on past performance and there was a lot of bemoaning when they were kicked to the curb.

 

I wasn't trying to make it about maximum crowd favorites(the posts I replied to hadn't called that out as the specific thing), but to tie back to the larger point, that's mostly a function of individual performance too. There's nothing special about Bryant or Rizzo's personality compared to Almora or Heyward's. And yes, I mentioned before that regardless of team success there would be people who wanted to keep various parts of the 2020 group just like I'm sure that existed for the Dodgers and Seager and exists for the Yankees and Judge. Where there's a difference is if the 2022 Cubs were good bets to be competitive(like the 2022 Dodgers or 2023 Yankees), the amount of tying that consternation to the value of the business of baseball and other meta topics would be minimal.

[stitchface]

because sentimentality is all we have. If the cubs are winning, we care a lot less about sentimentality.

[soccer10k]

 

We’re splitting hairs right? Ownership directives is a budget constraint to me. I try to do whatever I can to remove them from the equation.

 

Not when ownership is straight up lying about how much money they have to spend. It's all part of the equation.

 

If I clearly have the income to spend X on a new car and could do so without overextending myself at all or preventing myself from making other significant purchases by doing so, but instead I choose to limit myself to 60% of X as what I want to spend, my budget constraint isn't 60% of X. It's still X. I'm just choosing to limit myself to 60% of X to spend on a car.

 

yeah but he's talking about the constraints that ownership puts on the GM.

 

you can spend whatever you want on a car, but if you tell your kid they can only spend 60%, they can only spend 60%

 

He said the Cubs as an organization shouldn’t have budget constraints but they do. The Cubs as an organization don’t have budget constraints. The owners are being cheap and don’t want to spend. We’re not the A’s or the Rays. They have budget constraints.

 

EDIT: Regardless, the Ricketts suck and I know we can all agree on that.

Edited July 27, 2022 by soccer10k

[sneakypower]

clown horsefeathers

[Tim]

That doesn't mean that there haven't been any discussions at all. It may just mean that there is a large enough gulf between expectations that there was no reason to go further.

[CubinNY]

Some of this is just [expletive],

 

Willson is among the best at his position in baseball and the Cubs have nobody to replace his production. He's likely to remain so for the length of his next contract. That's it. The Cubs organization is stupid. You can be as analytic as you want, I don't care. He's provided more surplus value to the Cubs than he is likely to exceed in his next contract. horsefeathers them.

 

This isn't about sentimentality or cold financial calculations, because both of those say he should be extended or resigned or whatever it is you want to call it. This is about assholes making stupid decisions about winning baseball games and treating one of their best players in the last decade like a used condom.

[Sammy Sofa]

That doesn't mean that there haven't been any discussions at all. It may just mean that there is a large enough gulf between expectations that there was no reason to go further.

 

Sure, and we 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000% know which side is in the wrong.

[sneakypower]

big market team sits 40-57 in the standings

 

fans: "they're smart to not overpay!"