Starting Pitching candidates

[davell]

Alex Cobb. He started to look like the pre-injury guy toward the end of the season. K9 up to 7.3 in the 2nd half of the season, but that included 8.9 K/9 in the last 2 months. He also brought his HR/9 back to his career numbers the last 2 months after give up over 1.1 HR/9 the rest of the year after giving up 2 HR per 9 in his limited starts in 2016. Familiarity with Maddon and potentially will have his pitching coach again next year if the Cubs hire Hickey. Plus, he's a generally a decent fielder from what I understand. And FWIW, he's historically dominated the NL during interleague play.

 

I like Cobb enough. If we got him AND traded for a guy too, the rotation would look really horsefeathering good. If Cobb were to be the main addition, with a Miley type, it'd still be ENOUGH. I'd just be disappointed. Kind of expect pissed off, win at all costs Theo this offseason.

[imb]

id prefer to have that Theo next offseason

[davell]

id prefer to have that Theo next offseason

 

Ah, good point. Maybe slightly annoyed Theo can do some cool horsefeathers this off-season.

[toonsterwu]

2 of Almora/Schwarber/Happ, Monty and a combo of the following guys; Zagunis, Zas, Albertos, Caritini, Tseng, De La Cruz for Betts or Benintendi (lead off hitter), Price (Red Sox throw in ~$50 mil of remaining ~$150) and Eduardo Rodriguez. Who says no?

 

Red Sox. In terms of real life, much as i've pondered it, I'd be stunned if they deal Benintendi or Betts. From a hypothetical perspective, sure, it might make some sense for them to package Price's contract with one of them to address some needs, while swinging the door open to maybe make a deal for Stanton. The biggest issue, IMO, is the addition of Eduardo Rodriguez, a promising young arm coming into this own, at least, on paper. That just seems way too much. davell may be right that that package might not net Betts alone in a hypothetical.

 

_____

 

No way do I think the Phillies move on from Aaron Nola. Young, cost-controlled front of the rotation type arm. He fits their window.

 

Shark is interesting. In this market, though, it's hard seeing minor leaguers being enough, considering our farm system and where the guys are. I could see something like Happ and minor leaguers perhaps being enough. Thing is, Shark was quietly very solid. I think it would get quite a bidding war going for him, as the remaining contract, while big, isn't that bad that you say no to a productive guy coming off a good year. This presumes that the Giants even want to move on from him, which seems debatable.

[Agony and Ivy]

2 of Almora/Schwarber/Happ, Monty and a combo of the following guys; Zagunis, Zas, Albertos, Caritini, Tseng, De La Cruz for Betts or Benintendi (lead off hitter), Price (Red Sox throw in ~$50 mil of remaining ~$150) and Eduardo Rodriguez. Who says no?

 

Red Sox. In terms of real life, much as i've pondered it, I'd be stunned if they deal Benintendi or Betts. From a hypothetical perspective, sure, it might make some sense for them to package Price's contract with one of them to address some needs, while swinging the door open to maybe make a deal for Stanton. The biggest issue, IMO, is the addition of Eduardo Rodriguez, a promising young arm coming into this own, at least, on paper. That just seems way too much. davell may be right that that package might not net Betts alone in a hypothetical.

 

_____

 

No way do I think the Phillies move on from Aaron Nola. Young, cost-controlled front of the rotation type arm. He fits their window.

 

Shark is interesting. In this market, though, it's hard seeing minor leaguers being enough, considering our farm system and where the guys are. I could see something like Happ and minor leaguers perhaps being enough. Thing is, Shark was quietly very solid. I think it would get quite a bidding war going for him, as the remaining contract, while big, isn't that bad that you say no to a productive guy coming off a good year. This presumes that the Giants even want to move on from him, which seems debatable.

 

Even in a "down" year Betts was a 5 WAR player and a top 15 position player. None of those guys listed in the hypothetical would net him.

[Agony and Ivy]

 

Padres- They got nothing.

 

 

I'd love Dinelson Lamet, but he's not going anywhere.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

 

Padres- They got nothing.

 

 

I'd love Dinelson Lamet, but he's not going anywhere.

I'm not very good at anagrams so I have no idea who you're talking about. Dean Millstone? Lames Indolent? Denial Smelton?

[Cubswin11]

Having some time to look at options today........ Tyler Chatwood really intrigues me quite a bit. I would be all for giving him the deal Lackey had, 2/32. I could live with a Chatwood and Cobb offseason then try and find a Monty type guy to trade for that wouldn’t cost a major piece and would have minor league options.

 

Cobb, Chatwood, low-mid level trade SP, some combination of 2-3 of Wade, Shaw, Nicasio, Oh, McGee, Minor and Liriano, a trade for Yelich (Happ + minor leaguers and take back Chen/Volquez contract), bring back Rivera for backup C and look at Maybin or Jay as the back up OF would be a just fine offseason by me.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Having some time to look at options today........ Tyler Chatwood really intrigues me quite a bit. I would be all for giving him the deal Lackey had, 2/32. I could live with a Chatwood and Cobb offseason then try and find a Monty type guy to trade for that wouldn’t cost a major piece and would have minor league options.

 

Cobb, Chatwood, low-mid level trade SP, some combination of 2-3 of Wade, Shaw, Nicasio, Oh, McGee, Minor and Liriano, a trade for Yelich (Happ + minor leaguers and take back Chen/Volquez contract), bring back Rivera for backup C and look at Maybin or Jay as the back up OF would be a just fine offseason by me.

 

Chatwood is a guy that's intrigued me for a while. I think he would really take off if we get him out of Coors. Since he's been a Rockie, he has a 5.17 ERA at home and a 3.18 ERA on the road. That's in over 500 innings.

 

When I wrote an article examining Hendricks' ability to get weak contact, Chatwood was one of the few ground-ball pitchers I identified as a true FIP-beater. And his launch angle and exit velocity numbers at home and away are drastic. Balls are hit off him on average 2 mph slower on the road. His balls in the air are at much higher launch angles on the road. Since the start of the 2016 season, he has the 17th-lowest xwOBA on the road of 62 pitchers that have thrown at least 5,000 pitches.

 

He's also throwing the ball harder than ever and got more swings and misses than ever last year. His walk rate started trending in the wrong direction, but I wonder if that might drop once he gets out of Coors, too. For sure, though, he is a lot better when he gets more movement on his stuff when he's not in Coors. I think he'd be an excellent addition.

[Cubswin11]

Good stuff, as always, Duke. I didn’t do as deep a dive as that but the velo and more surface Home vs Road splits were things I looked at and stood out. Him only being 28 come next year helps too. What’s the thought on what it would take to get him? Is my 2/32 even in the ballpark? Think it will take 3 or 4 years? He might be my favorite non Otani FA SP target.

[davell]

He's really hard to peg financially. I could see 2/32 or even a 1/18 type of deal. But, with every FO having so much info readily available, and pitching being so damn scarce, I could see 3/45 or maybe even 4/60 too.

 

I kind of figure Cobb or Chatwood, with a guy we trade for, is our route.

 

And Chatwood or Cobb are my favorite non Ohtani guys.

[TruffleShuffle]

i suspect there will be a lot of smoke around cobb, especially if the cubs were to hire jim hickey as pitching coach.

[Bruno7481]

Chatwood in the neighborhood of 16-18 million per year seems absolutely crazy. I completely agree that he is intriguing and feel getting him out of Coors would be a great benefit to him. He's very intriguing, but I would be a lot less intrigued if that is the asking price. Despite the splits, he is still a guy with a high walk rate and a low strike out rate.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Chatwood in the neighborhood of 16-18 million per year seems absolutely crazy. I completely agree that he is intriguing and feel getting him out of Coors would be a great benefit to him. He's very intriguing, but I would be a lot less intrigued if that is the asking price. Despite the splits, he is still a guy with a high walk rate and a low strike out rate.

 

Lackey signed a 2/32 deal at age 37, and that was 2 years ago. I'm not exactly over the moon about paying Chatwood in particular that money, but that is the going rate for FA SP with question marks, especially if it's not a long deal.

[jersey cubs fan]

Chatwood in the neighborhood of 16-18 million per year seems absolutely crazy. I completely agree that he is intriguing and feel getting him out of Coors would be a great benefit to him. He's very intriguing, but I would be a lot less intrigued if that is the asking price. Despite the splits, he is still a guy with a high walk rate and a low strike out rate.

 

Lackey signed a 2/32 deal at age 37, and that was 2 years ago. I'm not exactly over the moon about paying Chatwood in particular that money, but that is the going rate for FA SP with question marks, especially if it's not a long deal.

 

FA SP with question marks but still a very good bet to throw 180+ innings. Lackey got paid to chomp down on innings. I don't know if that's the going rate for a guy who has never gone past 158.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Chatwood in the neighborhood of 16-18 million per year seems absolutely crazy. I completely agree that he is intriguing and feel getting him out of Coors would be a great benefit to him. He's very intriguing, but I would be a lot less intrigued if that is the asking price. Despite the splits, he is still a guy with a high walk rate and a low strike out rate.

 

Lackey signed a 2/32 deal at age 37, and that was 2 years ago. I'm not exactly over the moon about paying Chatwood in particular that money, but that is the going rate for FA SP with question marks, especially if it's not a long deal.

 

FA SP with question marks but still a very good bet to throw 180+ innings. Lackey got paid to chomp down on innings. I don't know if that's the going rate for a guy who has never gone past 158.

 

That's fair, and Lackey was coming off a strong year. My larger point is about calibrating the expectations on what FA SP are going to get in general, I'm not sticking up for Chatwood in particular.

[Bruno7481]

Chatwood in the neighborhood of 16-18 million per year seems absolutely crazy. I completely agree that he is intriguing and feel getting him out of Coors would be a great benefit to him. He's very intriguing, but I would be a lot less intrigued if that is the asking price. Despite the splits, he is still a guy with a high walk rate and a low strike out rate.

 

Lackey signed a 2/32 deal at age 37, and that was 2 years ago. I'm not exactly over the moon about paying Chatwood in particular that money, but that is the going rate for FA SP with question marks, especially if it's not a long deal.

 

I'm with you. I should have expanded my point to include that is just the economics of baseball these days. Still crazy.

 

Too bad I topped out in the low 80's...and I even had the advantage of being left-handed.

[CubinNY]

I'm betting the Cubs nab one of Lynn or Cobb.

[Jaxbro]

I'm betting the Cubs nab one of Lynn or Cobb.

My god no to Lynn.

[davell]

Cobb or Chatwood for me. Maybe the Cuban guy. The rest scare me, some more than others. Tillman or Miley would be cool as secondary adds, meaning they're the 3rd starter we've picked up.

 

Obviously, Ohtani is first, if he comes over by a landslide.

[sweetpeteman]

Cobb or Chatwood for me. Maybe the Cuban guy. The rest scare me, some more than others. Tillman or Miley would be cool as secondary adds, meaning they're the 3rd starter we've picked up.

 

Obviously, Ohtani is first, if he comes over by a landslide.

 

 

Tillman would be ok on a minor league or very low major league deal, Miley is crap and needs to stop being suggested.

[davell]

One of the guys at MLBTR was estimating contracts in his chat and mentioned Lynn at 4/60, Cobb around 4/48, and Chatwood on an Ivan Nova(3-26) type of deal, then mentioned he's the one guy there that thinks he'll get a 3rd year.

 

If THOSE are the numbers, Chatwood at 3/26 is a no-brainer. I'm happy as hell with Cobb too, at 4/48. Forget Lynn.

 

He also mentioned Mike Minor probably gets a Darren O'Day type of deal.(4/31)

 

If the prices are this low, I'm going to be surprised.

[Cubswin11]

One of the guys at MLBTR was estimating contracts in his chat and mentioned Lynn at 4/60, Cobb around 4/48, and Chatwood on an Ivan Nova(3-26) type of deal, then mentioned he's the one guy there that thinks he'll get a 3rd year.

 

If THOSE are the numbers, Chatwood at 3/26 is a no-brainer. I'm happy as hell with Cobb too, at 4/48. Forget Lynn.

 

He also mentioned Mike Minor probably gets a Darren O'Day type of deal.(4/31)

 

If the prices are this low, I'm going to be surprised.

Yeah, I absolutely sign Cobb and Chatwood at those deals. Pass on Minor at that deal for me personally, though I guess we were in on Cecil last year and he got a similar deal and both are kinda similar. History of injuries, especially as a starter, and moved to the pen and it clicked. Though if we are willing to go 4/30ish on Minor I'd rather just go 3/50ish or 4/60ish on Wade.

[davell]

Not the pen thread, but I'd pass on Wade at those numbers. I was mistaken, the guy said Minor would get 4 years out of the pen, but he's also made mention he may want to start again. Where he'd probably settle on a much shorter deal obviously. The guy he said would beat O'Day's(4/31) deal was Addison Reed.

 

Maybe I'm in the minority, or even completely by myself, but I'd take Reed at 4/32 and Neshek at 2/18 over Davis at 4/60ish.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Chatwood just doesn't strike me as the strike-throwing type that we talked about. The grounders are great and his road numbers in 2016 were as well, but this year they were pretty mediocre. There's some nice peripherals but plenty cause for caution, for me. I mean, he's fine, pretty intriguing - but those walk rates aren't pretty and Theo is making it a priority to decrease the walks our pitching staff doles out.

 

I just feel like he's a long shot for that reason.