Starting Pitching candidates

[We Got The Whole 9]

Almora would've had to clear waivers, right? And there's no way he would've.

Yeah this is what I'm saying. It's all good. It's moot now.

[Cubswin11]

Almora would've had to clear waivers, right? And there's no way he would've.

Yeah this is what I'm saying. It's all good. It's moot now.

Forgot about that whole part

[We Got The Whole 9]

Tigers are reportedly paying 8m per making it a 2/40 deal for Houston

[Thrilho]

.

[Derwood]

I can’t tell if this is real or not

 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Metsisles123/status/903363157778944000[/tweet]

 

You can't?

 

This is maybe the Derwoodiest thing you've ever Derwooded.

 

You think I thought that was a real trade?

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Well, crap. This makes me sad. Oh well at least #wearegood

[treebird]

i'm mad at the tigers for not just trading him to us for almora and crap at the regular deadline

[Sammy Sofa]

 

You can't?

 

This is maybe the Derwoodiest thing you've ever Derwooded.

 

You think I thought that was a real trade?

 

No. We were all laughing at how you inexplicably couldn't tell DDJ was joking.

[Derwood]

 

This is maybe the Derwoodiest thing you've ever Derwooded.

 

You think I thought that was a real trade?

 

No. We were all laughing at how you inexplicably couldn't tell DDJ was joking.

 

I knew he was joking. I was trying to play off it and failed

[Sammy Sofa]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This really is annoying. Verlander was the perfect good pitcher target this offseason. Now we're stuck hoping they can somehow get lucky getting Otani for $300,000/year because I really have no interest in having Arrieta or Darvish until 2023.

[Bull]

This really is annoying. Verlander was the perfect good pitcher target this offseason. Now we're stuck hoping they can somehow get lucky getting Otani for $300,000/year because I really have no interest in having Arrieta or Darvish until 2023.

I really have no problem going into next year with basically what we started this year with, but Montgomery and Quintana replacing Lackey and Arrieta. If you can sign Otani, bonus. Look to bolster the ration at next years trade deadline.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

This really is annoying. Verlander was the perfect good pitcher target this offseason. Now we're stuck hoping they can somehow get lucky getting Otani for $300,000/year because I really have no interest in having Arrieta or Darvish until 2023.

I really have no problem going into next year with basically what we started this year with, but Montgomery and Quintana replacing Lackey and Arrieta. If you can sign Otani, bonus. Look to bolster the ration at next years trade deadline.

 

that's still only four starters though.

[UMFan83]

This really is annoying. Verlander was the perfect good pitcher target this offseason. Now we're stuck hoping they can somehow get lucky getting Otani for $300,000/year because I really have no interest in having Arrieta or Darvish until 2023.

I really have no problem going into next year with basically what we started this year with, but Montgomery and Quintana replacing Lackey and Arrieta. If you can sign Otani, bonus. Look to bolster the ration at next years trade deadline.

 

The question is whether you can count on Lester being 2016 Lester or 2017 Lester. A rotation of Hendricks, Quintana, 2017 Lester, Montgomery, 5th starter is going to be a decent staff but not great and very low on depth.

[weis21]

go ahead and plug in my man Jen-Ho as our new Kyle Hendricks and the 5th spot in the rotation

 

he and kyle will be best buds and we will have both bryzzo and tsengricks - cubs twitter is going to eat it up

 

Jen-Ho and Kyle will probably also more than likely be paid a stipend to create some new stat for theo and company

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If there's one thing the front office has shown a repeated ability to do, it's find solid starting pitching that isn't at the top of the market. So in that sense, I'm not terribly worried about a hole in the rotation. I do think there's the potential for a lack of quality at the top if Lester continues to decline and Quintana doesn't bounce back to his previous self, especially since without peak Lester and Arrieta you've got guys without terrific stuff headlining the rotation.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

This really is annoying. Verlander was the perfect good pitcher target this offseason. Now we're stuck hoping they can somehow get lucky getting Otani for $300,000/year because I really have no interest in having Arrieta or Darvish until 2023.

I really have no problem going into next year with basically what we started this year with, but Montgomery and Quintana replacing Lackey and Arrieta. If you can sign Otani, bonus. Look to bolster the ration at next years trade deadline.

 

The question is whether you can count on Lester being 2016 Lester or 2017 Lester. A rotation of Hendricks, Quintana, 2017 Lester, Montgomery, 5th starter is going to be a decent staff but not great and very low on depth.

 

I'm 99.5% sure this season has been a mirage for Lester. Two Weird Baseball short outings have helped contribute to it. But, he's been incredibly unlucky. Just a shitty, shitty year to follow up a year he was probably a little lucky. Same guy. And he'll be closer to the 2016 version next year.

 

A few things:

 

Of 88 pitchers that have thrown 2,000 pitches this year, the difference between his xwOBA and wOBA is 5th worst. This is with a really good defense behind him, too.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=wobadiff&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=500#results

 

Of those same pitchers, he ranks 15th best in xwOBA:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=2000&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0#results

 

His xwOBA is .292. It was .278 last year. He's been hit a little harder because his command has been off at times. And he's missed the strike zone a little more. His walk rate is up a tad. But, if you look at his batted ball profile, his GB%, FB%, LD% are all basically exactly the same. He hasn't gotten quite as many pop-ups. But his hard% is the same. Soft% is actually up.

 

He's actually getting more swings and misses. Contact% is down a good amount, especially on pitches in the zone. He's also getting batters to chase more out of the zone.

 

There's really no reason for him to be struggling this much. His peripherals look fine, and even better in a number of areas. His BABIP is way too high. His LOB% is 2nd worst in the league.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,a

 

His HR rate is fluky high, too. He ranks 16th of 88 pitchers that have thrown at least 2,000 pitchers in terms of lowest % of pitches that are barreled:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=6%7C&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=2000&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0#results

 

But he ranks 64th of 89 pitchers that have thrown 120 innings in HR/9:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=120&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,a&page=3_30

 

 

Complete fluke. Still the same Jon. He'll be an ace again next year.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Lester is 7th of 88 in average exit velocity, too:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=2000&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=launch_speed&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0#results

 

85.1 mph. He was at 85.8 mph last year when he ranked 4th of 79 with at least 2,500 pitches:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2016%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=2500&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=launch_speed&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0#results

 

Complete fluke. The only difference in the guy has been how hard he's been hit (BABIP and HR) and he actually hasn't been hit any differently at all.

[Post Count Padder]

The Jays extended Marco Estrada. Too bad. He's had a down year but I wouldn't have minded him as a backend of the rotation option.

 

Also the Padres extended the MLB leader in hits allowed (and former Cubs great) Clayton Richard.

[davell]

The Cubs need a frontline guy. And Theo even mentioned after the Quintana trade that this was now an option, with Quintana's cost certainty, having been added.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

They need three pitchers, at least one reliever and at least one starter, Montgomery/Wilson can be serviceable fill ins for whichever group only gets one. How you fill in those 3 slots has any number of different permutations depending on the people that fill them. Best case is they win the Otani lottery, then they can do something like pay for a back end starter and pay/trade for an elite reliever. Otani/Q/Hendricks/Lester/FA with a (Davis/Britton/etc)/Strop/Edwards/Wilson/Montgomery pen is dynamite. More likely scenario has a lot more gray area in terms of the available options and their costs.

[davell]

I think we've got Lester/Hendricks/Quintana set in stone, with Strop/Edwards/Wilson guaranteed for the pen. Montgomery obviously fills a spot somewhere. I think it'll be in the rotation personally, based on his performance, plus some comments from the FO/Joe.

 

Rondon and Grimm are both possible non tenders. No one else has a guaranteed spot, although I'd say its fairly safe to figure at least one of Pena, Maples, Zastryzny, Tseng, Butler, or Carasiti is on the opening day roster. Very possible that group brings 2, maybe 3, if you think Rondon(6 mill or so)or Grimm(2 mill or so) is brought back.

 

I'm going off the assumption we'll keep 13 pitchers again, by the way.

 

My rotation guess is....

 

Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Montgomery

 

With a guy added thru trade that's a big addition(in a deal that subtracts from our ML positional depth OR a nice FA signing. Ohtani would make either of these things unnecessary. On top of that, I'd expect another Butler/Mills type of acquisition or 2, that can be up and down guys, or compete with Monty for the 5th spot.

 

For the pen- guaranteed

 

Wilson, Edwards, Strop

 

Possibilities

 

Rondon, Grimm(will they be tendered?) Tseng, Butler, Zastryzny, Maples, Pena, Carasiti

 

I'll say 2 spots get filled from that entire group. Leaving 3 pen spots to fill. With Montgomery in the rotation. One should be a guy that can close, or at least fits into a competition to fill that role.....Wilson(if he figures horsefeathers out), and CJ, with a Shaw type of FA signing, could potentially work. If not, you've got the deadline to add you a closer still.

 

You could bring back Davis. Not sure why, but I kind of doubt they do. If him and Jake leave, it leaves you a ton of flexibility at least, plus some 2nd round picks, to help with the overall draft budget.

 

Duensing? Go down that path again at a higher price? We need a lefty. My guess is we'd pass if it'd take more than a one year deal for him. Uehara is gone.

 

So anyway, my entire guess is 3 new pen guys, one on a multi year deal. Two on one year contracts. One major starting pitching expenditure. Plus, lots of depth to both areas.

 

Thoughts too scattered here, I'll look into options in both categories later tonight or tomorrow.

[champaignchris]

I don’t feel like the Cubs are going to make any trades in the offseason that will substantially change the make up of their core position players. Maybe heading into 2019 and that monster free agent class, but I feel this year they’ll keep the position core intact and use free agency to fill in the holes in the pitching staff.

 

I feel like they’ll buy a starter on the Lance Lynn/Alex Cobb/Tyler Chatwood level. Not sexy but with the potential to be effective for a number of years.

 

I think they’ll bring Wade Davis back. They aren’t riding him the way they did Chapman. Makes me think they want to consider bringing him back.

 

And I think they’ll get a prominent lefty reliever like Abad or McGee so that they can feel

Confident in moving Monty into the rotation.

 

Bring in a cheap Jon Jay replacement (Austin Jackson? Or maybe just bring Jay back? Or maybe Martin is already their Jay replacement?) and sign a Rene Rivera-ish backup catcher on a minor league contract for insurance and call it an off season.

[Cubswin11]

I’d kinda be fine with bringing everyone back (Arrieta, Davis, Jay, Avila) then adding Cobb to take Lackey’s spot. This is all assuming no Otani. Liriano as a bullpen arm intrigues me as well.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I’d kinda be fine with bringing everyone back (Arrieta, Davis, Jay, Avila) then adding Cobb to take Lackey’s spot. This is all assuming no Otani. Liriano as a bullpen arm intrigues me as well.

 

At this point, I'm for this, except definitely Otani.