The Bryce is Right, Bitch

[Flames24Rulz]

meanwhile, the mainstream reporters are taking direct quotes from Theo:

 

 

Obviously doesnt mean they are out on Harper. In fact he might be alluding to the Cubs potentially trying to make it work, but it definitely confirms that we are under a tightish budget.

 

Edit: More

 

 

aka, PTR wants to avoid the luxury tax.

[The_Achiever]

Darvish looks a lot dumber if it really did take us out of Harper range.

 

And Cole! I like Cole and think he'll be solid but spending $20 million with this supposed tight budget doesn't seem like a great use of resources.

[Brian]

Pretty sure that's not true, considering they will be over it if they do nothing. There's obviously a number that the budge is set at, it would be insane to think there isn't, what it is i'm guessing only a couple of people know and how strict it is.

[Cubswin11]

I wonder if the "get creative" and "things need to be sequenced" means more they'd have to get creative with Bryce's contract to make it work for this year and next than them necessarily needing to move a ton of other players/contracts around. With all the money coming off the books after this year and next maybe they need to stack the money in a creative way to fit him in (like not giving him that much in the first two years and a healthy deferment).

 

Lets say he signs for 12/375, $25-40 million of that gets deferred ~15 years down the road in some sort of installment plan (which he gets no matter what even if he takes an opt out). Then the first two years he "only" gets around $18-22 million and in year 3 (after we have all of Zobrist, Lester, Q, Morrow, Hamels, Chatwood, etc off the books) he gets a big bump and like a $40-50 million salary and an opt out after that year. So he would roughly get $90 million guaranteed in the first three years + the deferred money down the road, year 4 he gets another sizable amount in the $40-50 million range and an opt out after that as well so if he opts out after then he still would have gotten around $130 million over 4 years + deferred money. Then years 5-12 can come down a bit to in the $25-32 million a year range for the remainder (with another opt out in there potentially).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Hamels better throw 400 innings with a 0.75 ERA

[Perd]

Then get creative, Theo. Geniuses don’t let Tyler Chatwood and Brandon Kintzler get in the way of signing Bryce horsefeathering Harper.

[Neuby]

First tier: 20% of $20 million = $4 million

 

Second tier: 32% of $20 million = $6.4 million

 

Third tier (Cubs over by $14 million): 62.5% of $14 million = $8.75 million

 

Total luxury tax owed on a $260 million 2019 payroll: $19.15 million

 

I can't believe I'm linking to a bleacher nation article. :banghead:

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018/11/12/how-much-would-the-luxury-tax-actually-cost-the-cubs-at-a-260m-payroll/

 

 

They will hit the first tier without a doubt. Not going into the second or third tier for even a short run to acquire a player like Bryce Harper with the team in a championship window is a complete joke. I hope Theo's bluffing. Since the Ricketts purchased the Cubs it's been a non stop machine of dollar for dollar quotes saying the revenue will all be going back into baseball operations once the MLB debit restrictions were lifted.

 

Just this offseason alone

 

*ticket price hikes/premium seating/Clubs/sponsorships

 

*MGM MLB deal that will expand to include other partners and more $$$

 

*Significant bump in international TV $$$

 

This is going to be additional to the $457M of revenue the Cubs had last year. (Forbes) This without including in at the very least a nominal bump in the new TV deal.

[Backtobanks]

I wonder if the "get creative" and "things need to be sequenced" means more they'd have to get creative with Bryce's contract to make it work for this year and next than them necessarily needing to move a ton of other players/contracts around. With all the money coming off the books after this year and next maybe they need to stack the money in a creative way to fit him in (like not giving him that much in the first two years and a healthy deferment).

 

Lets say he signs for 12/375, $25-40 million of that gets deferred ~15 years down the road in some sort of installment plan (which he gets no matter what even if he takes an opt out). Then the first two years he "only" gets around $18-22 million and in year 3 (after we have all of Zobrist, Lester, Q, Morrow, Hamels, Chatwood, etc off the books) he gets a big bump and like a $40-50 million salary and an opt out after that year. So he would roughly get $90 million guaranteed in the first three years + the deferred money down the road, year 4 he gets another sizable amount in the $40-50 million range and an opt out after that as well so if he opts out after then he still would have gotten around $130 million over 4 years + deferred money. Then years 5-12 can come down a bit to in the $25-32 million a year range for the remainder (with another opt out in there potentially).

 

He would really have to want to play for the Cubs to take that deal. If other teams are offering him $35 million plus for every year, would he accept $20 million per year for the first two years waiting for a huge payday after that. Also, if he wants to play for a winner, there wouldn't be much of a guarantee that the Cubs would be competitive with big pay raises/extensions to Baez, Contreras, Bryant, Hendricks, etc. in addition to his huge bump of $30 million.

[Bertz]

Darvish looks a lot dumber if it really did take us out of Harper range.

 

And Cole! I like Cole and think he'll be solid but spending $20 million with this supposed tight budget doesn't seem like a great use of resources.

 

And Kintzler. Cole and Kintzler are moves they made late enough in the game that if there were budget concerns they should have already been well aware of them. That's $25million, plus add in the 3-4 that Schwarber's going to get, and you've nearly paid for Bryce. If they don't even try to make a run at Harper, it's because they chose Schwarber, Hamels, and Kintzler over Harper and whatever pitching Schwarber would net in trade. We don't know exactly what Schwarber's value is but that seems foolish to me

[Cubswin11]

I wonder if the "get creative" and "things need to be sequenced" means more they'd have to get creative with Bryce's contract to make it work for this year and next than them necessarily needing to move a ton of other players/contracts around. With all the money coming off the books after this year and next maybe they need to stack the money in a creative way to fit him in (like not giving him that much in the first two years and a healthy deferment).

 

Lets say he signs for 12/375, $25-40 million of that gets deferred ~15 years down the road in some sort of installment plan (which he gets no matter what even if he takes an opt out). Then the first two years he "only" gets around $18-22 million and in year 3 (after we have all of Zobrist, Lester, Q, Morrow, Hamels, Chatwood, etc off the books) he gets a big bump and like a $40-50 million salary and an opt out after that year. So he would roughly get $90 million guaranteed in the first three years + the deferred money down the road, year 4 he gets another sizable amount in the $40-50 million range and an opt out after that as well so if he opts out after then he still would have gotten around $130 million over 4 years + deferred money. Then years 5-12 can come down a bit to in the $25-32 million a year range for the remainder (with another opt out in there potentially).

 

He would really have to want to play for the Cubs to take that deal. If other teams are offering him $35 million plus for every year, would he accept $20 million per year for the first two years waiting for a huge payday after that. Also, if he wants to play for a winner, there wouldn't be much of a guarantee that the Cubs would be competitive with big pay raises/extensions to Baez, Contreras, Bryant, Hendricks, etc. in addition to his huge bump of $30 million.

Any contract of this size, by any team, is going to have some quirks with deferments or salaries being lower or jumping in various years. He probably isn’t getting an opt out earlier than 3 years in by anyone and he’s still getting the AAV he wants in the first 3 years in my scenario + deferment money. We only have $60 million on the books for 2021 right now, we could pay him $40-50 million that year and have plenty of money to spend elsewhere.

 

If a team wants to offer him like 10/400 with the money evenly split and opt outs every year and no deferment good for them and he probably takes it. But I’d bet any deal he gets won’t have opt outs for the first 2-3 years, some money deferred and probably years where he’s making less or more than the AAV of the deal.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Darvish looks a lot dumber if it really did take us out of Harper range.

 

And Cole! I like Cole and think he'll be solid but spending $20 million with this supposed tight budget doesn't seem like a great use of resources.

 

And Kintzler. Cole and Kintzler are moves they made late enough in the game that if there were budget concerns they should have already been well aware of them. That's $25million, plus add in the 3-4 that Schwarber's going to get, and you've nearly paid for Bryce. If they don't even try to make a run at Harper, it's because they chose Schwarber, Hamels, and Kintzler over Harper and whatever pitching Schwarber would net in trade. We don't know exactly what Schwarber's value is but that seems foolish to me

 

But only for one year.

 

Meaning, they aren't paying those guys $25 million per during each of the 12 years of Harper's contract. It's giving out $400 million compared to $25 million in total dollars.

 

I'd rather they do the $400 million in this case, of course.

[CubinNY]

meanwhile, the mainstream reporters are taking direct quotes from Theo:

 

 

Obviously doesnt mean they are out on Harper. In fact he might be alluding to the Cubs potentially trying to make it work, but it definitely confirms that we are under a tightish budget.

 

Edit: More

 

 

i don't think it definitely confirms anything other than that is the message being sent publicly, which we pretty much already knew.

 

that said, i do think they want to move some salary to allow for flexibility with a harper signing. whether they would ultimately do it regardless of being able to move guys, i'm not sure.

Why the F did they pick up Hammels option if they need to move money around to get the best player on the market? The window isn’t opening it’s closing.

[Perd]

Them picking up the option on Hamels, is what gives me a little hope that this is all a bit of sandbagging. I dunno, it just doesn’t make much sense, to pick up that option, if it hamstrings you on Harper.

[Tryptamine]

I'll side with Theo until proven wrong, but man it would look bad that with all this MLB talent hitting the back half of their team control and all these new revenue streams that the Cubs will be arguably sending a worse squad out opening day 2019 then they have the last 2 to 3 years.

[Brian]

just going to keep riding with the cat until Bryce signs elsewhere, because it's more fun than being negative

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[The_Achiever]

The cat had me until he said heyward being moved was on the table.

 

We broke him, we bought him.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Charles is our version of that one Brewers guy who eventually got kicked off their board.

 

It's sort of sad.

[Sammy Sofa]

I still get a kick out of the idea that implying the Cubs' money is pretty tight is some kind of cagey, crafty move by the FO.

[Tim]

I'll side with Theo until proven wrong, but man it would look bad that with all this MLB talent hitting the back half of their team control and all these new revenue streams that the Cubs will be arguably sending a worse squad out opening day 2019 then they have the last 2 to 3 years.

I'm curious how it is a worse squad. The only person on offense who should decline based on age would be Zobrist. Rotation is nominally stronger with the addition of Hamels.

[Cubswin11]

I'll side with Theo until proven wrong, but man it would look bad that with all this MLB talent hitting the back half of their team control and all these new revenue streams that the Cubs will be arguably sending a worse squad out opening day 2019 then they have the last 2 to 3 years.

I'm curious how it is a worse squad. The only person on offense who should decline based on age would be Zobrist. Rotation is nominally stronger with the addition of Hamels.

Javy’s going to regress, even if it’s to 2-3 WAR. He can’t be a 5+ win player with his profile. KB being KB should make up for it though.

[Tim]

I'll side with Theo until proven wrong, but man it would look bad that with all this MLB talent hitting the back half of their team control and all these new revenue streams that the Cubs will be arguably sending a worse squad out opening day 2019 then they have the last 2 to 3 years.

I'm curious how it is a worse squad. The only person on offense who should decline based on age would be Zobrist. Rotation is nominally stronger with the addition of Hamels.

Javy’s going to regress, even if it’s to 2-3 WAR. He can’t be a 5+ win player with his profile. KB being KB should make up for it though.

So...It's just as good a team.

[Cubswin11]

I'm curious how it is a worse squad. The only person on offense who should decline based on age would be Zobrist. Rotation is nominally stronger with the addition of Hamels.

Javy’s going to regress, even if it’s to 2-3 WAR. He can’t be a 5+ win player with his profile. KB being KB should make up for it though.

So...It's just as good a team.

Oh yeah, it’s going to be the most irrationally hated 90+ win projected team of all time if we just do moves on the margins.

[Gilby]

As much of a worst case scenario the Chatwood signing was, and if moving him makes a significant difference, I still think that's doable. Between Happ, Schwarber, Almora, Amaya, Hoerner, there are enough interesting-ish pieces to attach to him. Fitting in a trade for a top end reliever becomes more difficult after that though.

[Cubswin11]

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[The_Achiever]

Trader!