Mock Offseason Thread

[NOLA]

Completely irrational, but the thought of Javy, Schwarbs and Super Eloy on another team is sorta sad. I could probably comfort myself with the multiple WS wins.

[Cubswin11]

Completely irrational, but the thought of Javy, Schwarbs and Super Eloy on another team is sorta sad. I could probably comfort myself with the multiple WS wins.

I'd get over it pretty quick having the 2 best players in baseball on the team for the next 5-6 next years, at least, while in their primes.

[Gilby]

Trade: Soler and C Villanueva to the Rays for Chih Wei Hu (starts at Iowa) and Enny Romero.

 

Sign: Jansen 5 yrs, G Blanco 1 yr, K Uehara 1 yr (dominates lefties with that splitter, so he essentially replaces Montgomery)

 

Starters

C Contreras

1B Rizzo

2B Javy (rotating in and out of the lineup with Almora and Blanco)

SS Russell

3B Bryant

LF Schwarber

CF Heyward (and a lot of RF)

RF Zobrist (and a lot of 2B)

 

Lester

Hendricks

Arrieta

Lackey

Montgomery

 

bench

MIggy, La Stella, Szczur, Almora, Blanco

 

bullpen

Jansen, Rondon, Strop, Edwards, Grimm, Uehara, Romero

[davell]

Sign Dex 4/68

Sign Jerry Blevins 2/10

Sign Greg Holland 2/24

Sign Gregor Bianco 1/7

 

Trade Soler and Ryan Williams to Philly for Jake Thompson and Edubray Ramos

 

(These are post Brett Cecil prices)

[Post Count Padder]

Trade: Soler and C Villanueva to the Rays for Chih Wei Hu (starts at Iowa) and Enny Romero.

 

Sign: Jansen 5 yrs, G Blanco 1 yr, K Uehara 1 yr (dominates lefties with that splitter, so he essentially replaces Montgomery)

 

Starters

C Contreras

1B Rizzo

2B Javy (rotating in and out of the lineup with Almora and Blanco)

SS Russell

3B Bryant

LF Schwarber

CF Heyward (and a lot of RF)

RF Zobrist (and a lot of 2B)

 

Lester

Hendricks

Arrieta

Lackey

Montgomery

 

bench

MIggy, La Stella, Szczur, Almora, Blanco

 

bullpen

Jansen, Rondon, Strop, Edwards, Grimm, Uehara, Romero

Three outfielders on the bench? Also thinking that's kinda underwhelming for Soler.

 

How bout a throwback trade idea and see if the Orioles have finally soured on Bundy?

[ConstableRabbit]

The name that I circled back to today was Bauer. I think there's a lot to like with him, AL to NL transition, no platoon split, he's a bright guy/Driveline client, he's proven a level of durability but still has 4 years of control, he's very good the first 2 times through the order but still faced the 3rd a lot so Maddon could conceivably have a positive influence on end results, and most importantly, as a clear 4th in the pecking order with reasonable in house options behind him, he could pretty easily be available to help Cleveland fill other needs.

 

The good news is that Soler and Almora are both potential fits there, but neither is a snug enough fit to make me certain that they'd uproot an existing SP(especially with Carrasco and Salazar's injuries) to get them. But that's really the case with every option unless they're gambling on someone with downright poor performance.

I realize that this line of thinking is bordering on the cliche, but I love Bauer's stuff out of the pen if it turns out that he's not going to be as effective a starter as promised. With that said, I think he can be quite valuable in the rotation. Would be interested in seeing what it takes.

[imb]

I'm having a hard time (without doing any research) liking Bauer better than Odorizzi. How much team control does odorizzi have?

[toonsterwu]

I don't know what the Nats are looking for outside of bullpen help, and the extra arms they have could easily help out there.....But with a rotation of Max/Strasbourg/Roark/Gio/Ross.....It does leave Giolito, Lopez, and Cole out in the cold.

 

If there was a way to grab any of them, Giolito, then Lopez preferred, it'd be cool.

 

Hunch is that, despite picking up the option, they may listen on Gio this winter. I think they might even prefer giving Giolito some more AAA seasoning and just leaving AAA loaded.

 

I think Cole's fallen quite back. I think Austin Voth would be ahead of him if they had their druthers of someone to call up. Cole may be better off as a power pen arm.

[toonsterwu]

Oh, that is way too low on Soler. I like Chih-Wei Hu enough, but he's essentially a better version of his fellow countryman Jen-ho Tseng, slightly better fastball, deep arsenal but of average-ish pitches. If you are trading for a MLB pitcher like that, fine, but not a prospect. Soler should be able to bring back more bang for the buck in terms of immediate help, or higher upside if you are looking to stock the system.

[Cubswin11]

I'm having a hard time (without doing any research) liking Bauer better than Odorizzi. How much team control does odorizzi have?

Odorizzi is a FA after 2019, Bauer after 2020. Bauer has pedigree and offers TOR upside while Odorizzi I think has reached his ceiling as a solid MOR starter but has a safer floor, imo. There's definitely more volatility and uncertainty with Bauer. To the point a move to the bullpen may be the best use of him/his stuff in the future. I still prefer Bauer.

[imb]

I'm having a hard time (without doing any research) liking Bauer better than Odorizzi. How much team control does odorizzi have?

Odorizzi is a FA after 2019, Bauer after 2020. Bauer has pedigree and offers TOR upside while Odorizzi I think has reached his ceiling as a solid MOR starter but has a safer floor, imo. There's definitely more volatility and uncertainty with Bauer. To the point a move to the bullpen may be the best use of him/his stuff in the future. I still prefer Bauer.

 

I guess I just see Bauer as being a worse pitcher, so the additional year of a bad pitcher doesn't really speak to me.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm having a hard time (without doing any research) liking Bauer better than Odorizzi. How much team control does odorizzi have?

 

Bauer has 4 years, Odorizzi has 3.

 

Odorizzi I probably still like better as a pitcher, but if you think his HR problem is more structural to him than the Rays, or that he won't be able to start getting righties out(he has a very odd reverse split), then Bauer is close enough to be as attractive an option, especially when you consider the team control and likely player cost.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The name that I circled back to today was Bauer. I think there's a lot to like with him, AL to NL transition, no platoon split, he's a bright guy/Driveline client, he's proven a level of durability but still has 4 years of control, he's very good the first 2 times through the order but still faced the 3rd a lot so Maddon could conceivably have a positive influence on end results, and most importantly, as a clear 4th in the pecking order with reasonable in house options behind him, he could pretty easily be available to help Cleveland fill other needs.

 

The good news is that Soler and Almora are both potential fits there, but neither is a snug enough fit to make me certain that they'd uproot an existing SP(especially with Carrasco and Salazar's injuries) to get them. But that's really the case with every option unless they're gambling on someone with downright poor performance.

I realize that this line of thinking is bordering on the cliche, but I love Bauer's stuff out of the pen if it turns out that he's not going to be as effective a starter as promised. With that said, I think he can be quite valuable in the rotation. Would be interested in seeing what it takes.

 

Bauer does take like an hour to warm up and is pretty stubborn about his routine so there'd be added risk to him taking to relieving.

[Rob]

I'm having a hard time (without doing any research) liking Bauer better than Odorizzi. How much team control does odorizzi have?

 

Bauer has 4 years, Odorizzi has 3.

 

Odorizzi I probably still like better as a pitcher, but if you think his HR problem is more structural to him than the Rays, or that he won't be able to start getting righties out(he has a very odd reverse split), then Bauer is close enough to be as attractive an option, especially when you consider the team control and likely player cost.

 

Yeah, I'm not sold on Bauer as enough of a "team player" to fit the Cubs. He's tough to coach and stubborn about his routine, so the upside and versatility are both limited.

[Tryptamine]

The name that I circled back to today was Bauer. I think there's a lot to like with him, AL to NL transition, no platoon split, he's a bright guy/Driveline client, he's proven a level of durability but still has 4 years of control, he's very good the first 2 times through the order but still faced the 3rd a lot so Maddon could conceivably have a positive influence on end results, and most importantly, as a clear 4th in the pecking order with reasonable in house options behind him, he could pretty easily be available to help Cleveland fill other needs.

 

The good news is that Soler and Almora are both potential fits there, but neither is a snug enough fit to make me certain that they'd uproot an existing SP(especially with Carrasco and Salazar's injuries) to get them. But that's really the case with every option unless they're gambling on someone with downright poor performance.

I realize that this line of thinking is bordering on the cliche, but I love Bauer's stuff out of the pen if it turns out that he's not going to be as effective a starter as promised. With that said, I think he can be quite valuable in the rotation. Would be interested in seeing what it takes.

 

Bauer does take like an hour to warm up and is pretty stubborn about his routine so there'd be added risk to him taking to relieving.

 

To be a pitcher who lives up in the zone,like Bauer, you need precise command. He doesn't have it and when he doesn't have it he gives up rockets. He's just not worth the headache. Occasionally he'll look brilliant because his command will be there and he'll get swing and miss after swing and miss high at the top of the zone, but the majority of the time you're going to see walks and lasers.

[doublebubble]

Looking at teams that need corner OF help, here's what I come up with, for poitential Soler landing spots....

 

Toronto, Cleveland, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, White Sox, Arizona, Oakland, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and San Diego.....

 

Keep coming back to Taijuan Walker personally. Soler wouldn't get him by himself, but he's a guy I'm hopeful about anyway. Part of a package for Gray makes sense. Atlanta has Wisler or Blair that's probably in the same value range. Clevinger in Cleveland? Bradley, Corbin, even Miller in Arizona?

 

Tampa supposedly isn't a fan of Soler, so even though they have a need, I'll pass them up. Toronto or Baltimore don't have enough ML pitching, to trade from. Osuna would be nice though. I'm wary of the White Sox even dealing with us, but a Soler+ for Nate Jones move makes a bit of sense. I don't see any ML fits with SD, nor do I even trust trading with them.

 

Jake Thompson and Zach Eflin both are interesting for Philadelphia. Thompson being the one I'd prefer.

 

If we move him, I'd definitely prefer to get immediate help back. I'm not searching thru for pitching prospects in the 50-200 range that you could see being exchanged in a one for one or maybe a couple of the lower end guys for him. And yes, its definitely possible we move him in a deal where he's not really the lead piece. My honest guess though is we move him separately, so we don't deplete the depth we've built.

 

 

I was just coming here to post this. been out of the country since the 11th of November. Would a Soler for Marcell Osuna trade be target if Fowler doesnt resign? would fix the outfield logjam and CF problem at the same time. Soler landing in Miami might do wonders for him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I believe davell was referring to Roberto Osuna, the Blue Jay pitcher.

 

Marcell Ozuna is a decent player, although it looks like ideally he's more of a corner OF than a CF.

[davell]

Trades for us that I think are fairly realistic......

 

Candelario for Brett Gardner

 

Happ, Soler, DelaCruz, and Montero(eating most of the money) for Odorizzi and Colome

[raw]

Wonder how much KC is wanting/willing to trade. Looks like a lot of their guys get raises this year and they'll increase their record 140M payroll even i they let FAs walk. Seems like if you're a team that can take on money, that they'd be willing to trade any or all of Lorenzo Cain, Ian Kennedy, and obviously Wade Davis. Maybe can even get Ventura if you throw in a couple big time prospects.

 

Seems like a good fit for the Cubs as they are a team that could use Soler, as they don't have much RH power and are always willing to stack up prospects.

[toonsterwu]

I do keep coming back to Philly because they match up with our needs so well, with potential pen arms, starting depth to stash, and Odubel Herrera as a possible CF option. I'm just not certain if we match up that well with them. If they have interest in Soler, then it could work, as they may be open to moving Herrera, with Roman Quinn looking close as well (or maybe they take an interest in Almora.

 

The Braves make sense for us (pitching depth, Inciarte), but it sure feels like they are putting their focus on getting elite pitching first.

 

The other trade idea that I keep thinking about is some sort of Almora/Soler/others swap for Pollock/pen help/rotation depth.

 

At the end of the day, the easiest course is still the best course - signing Dex and giving us a crapload of flexibility. With trade costs likely to be high this winter, my hunch is that the Cubs FO bites the bullet and gives Fowler some sort of 4 year deal at the end (maybe 3 and a way to get the 4th).

 

I think Yankees would jump all over Candelario for Brett Gardner ... but I'm on the record as not being too keen on Gardner. There are some positives he brings, but I'm not a believe that he'll be a good defensive CF.

[Named After Maddux]

With the solid relationship between this front office and Billy Beane, I have been thinking a lot about the potential for a deal centered around Candelario for Doolittle. It just feels like the type of deal this FO is looking into as it provides affordable stability from the left-hand side, while also adding to the list of former closers to serve in set-up roles which they have been shown to accumulate. I really believe had Doolittle not gotten hurt last year we would have acquired him. Also, he's hilarious and I want his antics on this team.

 

I keep coming back to the Diamondbacks and Royals as interesting trade partners. I'd love Bradley and Pollock on this team. Ray and Corbin would be interesting as well. Perhaps there is an opportunity to pull in the Royals as a third team with the Diamondbacks or Phillies.

[davell]

What's our truly legitimate checklist?

 

Dex is obviously a possibility, but I'm not reading much that makes him appear as a likely one either. Seems much more likely we're looking for a lefty vet that can platoon with Almora.

 

A starting pitcher is on the agenda, but it doesn't seem like a huge priority, with a solid group currently. Obviously, they'll add depth of some sort. But I can see us not trading for a rotation piece until midseason, if the prices are ridiculous. Yeah, a TOR trade is possible. My guess is other teams are more desperate and we make a trade for a post hype type.

 

Bullpen? We'll add arms. But I'd say there's a non zero chance our closer is already on the roster too. It really doesn't sound like Chapman or Jansen are realistic. But, there's surely a better chance of adding one of them(or Melancon) than there is of Rondon, Strop, or Edwards closing, right?

 

We'll definitely add a lefty, but I'm not even sure whether it is for sure its a guaranteed contract. If we add an actual closer, I could see us trying to manufacture a lefty out of a few NRI, Zastryzny, Leathersich, Rosscup, etc.

 

I'm sure we'll add at least some depth too for RHRP.....Again, no idea on the quality. Depends on the closer situation, on some level. At any rate, I definitely see us adding at least ONE impact bullpen arm. Possibly two, if we swing a trade......

 

Seeing Miggy in a few rumors, I guess its plausible his comments after the Series made him expendable? Not to mention, I could see us searching for a more comparable battery mate for Lester? Montero's arm takes him out of that equation. Sure, Willy could be Lester's guy, but who knows? At any rate, a trade of Miggy and a backup C signing is a possibility......

 

Here's the way I THINK the FO appears to be prioritizing things, based on the articles being put out.....

 

1. Impact bullpen arm, likely thru trade

2. Lefty platoon vet CF, trade or FA

3. Starting P depth thru trade

4. Another impact bullpen arm, thru FA

5. Bringing back Dex

6. Lefty bullpen arm

7. Backup C

8. More bullpen depth(NRI's)

9. TOR SP thru trade

10. SP depth thru FA(NRI's)

[raw]

My assumption has been that it's an either/or situation with Fowler or spending on a closer. On one hand, signing Fowler keeps the elite offense in tact. On the other, an elite closer is probably more necessary for the playoffs as we saw. I don't know that the Cubs want to put all their hopes in the Wade Davis or Greg Holland baskets.

 

I think the SP depth will come in a trade. The Cubs know they've been very lucky with SP health the last 2 years (8 30-start pitchers, and another with 29 last year). They also know they are going to lose Lackey and Arrieta after the season. They don't want to be stuck in a situation where they have to throw money at another starter to maintain a championship caliber team. So, I think they'll go pretty far to find a guy that can be a big part of the 2018 rotation.

 

They'll sign a LHRP. They'll sign SP depth of the Cahill sort. They'll bring in another IF thru free agency to be the first guy up from Iowa ala Kawasaki this year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The bare minimum:

 

- a LH platoon outfielder, preferably CF unless the FO really wants Heyward logging time there

- a reliever of Strop's caliber

- a SP option of 2016 Montgomery's caliber

 

The upgrade path:

 

- a starting CF

- a closer-caliber reliever(I realize I'm splitting hairs since Strop is pretty good, but I hope you'll see the intent)

- a SP option better than Lackey with team control

 

Odds are you can go the upgrade path on 2 of the 3 but not all 3. Also what you do to tackle those 3 might open up smaller holes that need patched, like a reserve SS if Baez is traded.

[davell]

That breakdown is much easier to respond to than mine lol. I'd add a middle relief type guy as a bare minimum and a second elite bullpen addition as an upgraded option.

 

And Raw, your breakdown of SP reinforces the need. I think you changed my mind to we will definitely add more than NRI's there. They won't get too cute there.