Cubs offseason thread

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why are we trying to 'save' at this point? Resign Dexter, resign Chapman, and sign Jansen. Could you imagine Jansen and Chapman both there to close games in the 2017 playoffs? Why can't we have both?

 

1) Even though the team is in much better financial shape than it was even 18 months ago, there are still limits to what they can and will spend on payroll. Maybe the title gives them the leverage to secure an awesome agreement for the 2019 TV deal this offseason, which gives them a clear path to FU money that they can jump the payroll to 250 million right away. More likely they're going to have a very high payroll that is in the neighborhood of the luxury tax, which means given the existing obligations they can't just treat the offseason like

.

 

2) There is a negative one million percent chance that any team signs both Chapman and Jansen. Market forces mean that signing the 2nd one naturally means less to you than it will to the competing teams, and pretty much every wealthy NL team and probably some AL teams are going to be in said market. This happens every offseason and every team with payroll wonders it(why can't we get Heyward and Price? Lester and Martin? Tanaka and Choo? Greinke and Hamilton?), and then when the time comes to target the 2nd guy someone offers 'silly' money because they don't want to be left out. Also, as good as both Jansen and Chapman are it would be extremely risky to tie up that much of your payroll in two relievers. As the Yankees ably demonstrated this year, a super pen means little without leads to protect.

[bearjuice]

Why are we trying to 'save' at this point? Resign Dexter, resign Chapman, and sign Jansen. Could you imagine Jansen and Chapman both there to close games in the 2017 playoffs? Why can't we have both?

I like the cut of your jib

 

The Indians taught us something - elite relief pitching can (almost) make all the difference in the playoffs. For the same money/length on the market, why wouldn't both Chapman and Jansen (Melancon/Cashner in relief?) want to sign here? With both of them, you can somewhat rest them to be ready for when it matters at the end of the season. Quite frankly, I'm sure that Jed and Theo may move in this direction ... might as well go all out signing free agents now, stay clear of trading away more of our farm, and pay our young stars in a few years after the Cubs network skyrockets into existence. I can see our front office going in for the kill at this point.

 

At Trans Tiger: great points. Maybe I'm just getting greedy, but - hey - stranger things have happened this year already (i.e. Schwarber in the WS). I'm looking forward to seeing what Theo and Jed do this offseason.

 

What an awesome year!

[jehr]

The Indians taught us something - elite relief pitching can (almost) make all the difference in the playoffs.

See the 2014 to 2015 Royals as well in that regard. That said... I'm okay going all in on one top closer... But I'm hesitant to pay for two. That's risky. Maybe wait till the trade deadline for another.

[Tim]

I think there are enough great arms out there that don't have the "closer" label associated with them yet that you can trade for one of them.

 

I have altered my opinion about the value of relievers after this postseason. In the past, I never would have thought about trading Soler for a reliever. But now I'd be very open to it for the right guy. I also think it is possible to start grooming someone for the Miller-type role. We've had long relievers in baseball for a long time, but I'm wondering if we start to see some guys get used in multi-inning, high leverage stints with days off in between during the regular season rather than purely stringing together one inning stints on consecutive days.

 

Edwards might be a guy that we start to use in that manner.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think there are enough great arms out there that don't have the "closer" label associated with them yet that you can trade for one of them.

 

I have altered my opinion about the value of relievers after this postseason. In the past, I never would have thought about trading Soler for a reliever. But now I'd be very open to it for the right guy. I also think it is possible to start grooming someone for the Miller-type role. We've had long relievers in baseball for a long time, but I'm wondering if we start to see some guys get used in multi-inning, high leverage stints with days off in between during the regular season rather than purely stringing together one inning stints on consecutive days.

 

Edwards might be a guy that we start to use in that manner.

 

Chapman and Jansen aren't going to get huge bucks because of a closer label though, or if they do it's like 5% of the reason, it's because they're really really good. Since most teams are bright enough to catch on, that means that really good non-closer relievers are going to see their trade costs rise too. Like Colome for example, I really doubt that Soler alone would fetch him in trade.

 

That said, it doesn't scale all the way down(e.g. Justin Grimm isn't going to give you somebody's starting CF), and if you want to try to get ahead of the next Miller or Jansen by buying low, there are ways to do that. The problem is that those come with much greater uncertainty, and the back end of the Cubs current bullpen has a ton of uncertainty. If Rondon hadn't gotten hurt and had been healthy through the playoffs I'd probably feel differently with him, Edwards, and whatever you consider the current version of Strop to be. But there's a significant chance that Rondon the elite reliever is dead, and by not going after one of the (several!) elite but expensive relievers available we'd be risking on a Giants-esque derailment of 2017 that I'm not comfortable with.

[Tim]

I think there are enough great arms out there that don't have the "closer" label associated with them yet that you can trade for one of them.

 

I have altered my opinion about the value of relievers after this postseason. In the past, I never would have thought about trading Soler for a reliever. But now I'd be very open to it for the right guy. I also think it is possible to start grooming someone for the Miller-type role. We've had long relievers in baseball for a long time, but I'm wondering if we start to see some guys get used in multi-inning, high leverage stints with days off in between during the regular season rather than purely stringing together one inning stints on consecutive days.

 

Edwards might be a guy that we start to use in that manner.

 

Chapman and Jansen aren't going to get huge bucks because of a closer label though, or if they do it's like 5% of the reason, it's because they're really really good. Since most teams are bright enough to catch on, that means that really good non-closer relievers are going to see their trade costs rise too. Like Colome for example, I really doubt that Soler alone would fetch him in trade.

 

That said, it doesn't scale all the way down(e.g. Justin Grimm isn't going to give you somebody's starting CF), and if you want to try to get ahead of the next Miller or Jansen by buying low, there are ways to do that. The problem is that those come with much greater uncertainty, and the back end of the Cubs current bullpen has a ton of uncertainty. If Rondon hadn't gotten hurt and had been healthy through the playoffs I'd probably feel differently with him, Edwards, and whatever you consider the current version of Strop to be. But there's a significant chance that Rondon the elite reliever is dead, and by not going after one of the (several!) elite but expensive relievers available we'd be risking on a Giants-esque derailment of 2017 that I'm not comfortable with.

I'm thinking more in response to the "Both Jansen and Chapman" or even the "Both Jansen and Cecil" train of thought. So, I'm all for adding Jansen at the top, but then filling out underneath through trade.

 

Just as an example, I wonder how well the Cubs and Astros line up for a trade this offseason. They could really use a bat like Soler's for OF/DH and they had a deep lineup of really good relievers this year with Devenski, Harris, Giles, Gregerson, Feliz, Neshek and Fields. I wonder if they would be open to a Soler for Devenski swap. I'm also pretty fascinated with David Paulino, though the front office may back away because of his off-field issues last year. But I would be very interested in targeting a Soler + ? for Devenski/Paulino.

[Tim]

Oh, to respond to an earlier point...

 

Depending on what the Cubs think about their medicals, I'd hang on to both Strop and Rondon. Sure, if they feel they are on the verge of implosion then make a move. But the upside for each of them in 2016 is larger than what I feel we'd get in return.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Doesn't change your point, but FYI Neshek got traded to the Phillies yesterday.

[CyHawk_Cub]

I'm pretty sure someone else here (whether this thread or another) has expressed this, but given the competitive window the Cubs are in + positional "need" + what FA are available, I continue to hope the F.O. does what they can to land impact bullpen arms. I'm totally down w/ paying the $$ and draft pick for Jansen, with Chapman as my option #2 if the timing allows such a strategy.

 

I'd rather pay the $$ than find ourselves needing to trade Happ+ or Jimenez for an elite bullpen arm in-season. Trading Jimenez especially is something I'd really like to avoid (legit RH power is not something I want trade away, especially for an icky pitcher).

[KaraLeaP]

I hope to never see Chapman in a Cubs uniform again.

[CubinNY]

I don't really care if baseball is ever played again.

[Cubswin11]

if you want to try to get ahead of the next Miller or Jansen by buying low, there are ways to do that. The problem is that those come with much greater uncertainty, and the back end of the Cubs current bullpen has a ton of uncertainty.

 

Some candidates:

 

Enny Romero (LHP, Rays): Former top prospect, former starter, averaged 96+ on the fastball this year, ~25% K rate this year, ~13% swinging strikes, ~10% whiffs on fastball/23% on curve/20% on cutter, clean arm

 

Sean Newcomb (LHP, Braves, AA) - Top prospect, command and control issues as a starter, clean and power arm, lots of Ks, stingy with the hits and HRs

 

Joe Kelly (RHP, Red Sox) - 97+ on the fastball, ~11% whiffs on the fastball, clean arm

Michael Lorenzen (RHP, Reds)

Tony Cingrani (LHP, Reds)

Alex Meyer (RHP, Angels)

 

I've liked Romero as a change-of-scenery reliever for a while now, even if not the Cubs. Newcomb probably does not have the command and control to start in the long run. Kelly's fastball can be excellent, he is capable of piling up GBs, the Red Sox might finally be keeping him in releif. I'm sure there's plenty more candidates out there.

Some other guys I like/have interest in them as a starter turning into a bullpen role..... I've mentioned Holland a few times but he's definitely one, Cashern, Bud Norris, Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, Chad Bettis, and Martin Perez are others who are kinda okay starters, have had flashes but nothing sustained but still have good stuff that I'd be interested in trying to convert.

[texascub]

The Rangers outrighted their former closer, Shawn Tolleson, at the end of the season and he chose free agency. I think he could be an interesting bounce back candidate. He was really good in '14 and '15 before falling off a cliff this year. He turns 29 in January.

 

Kris Medlen is another name that hasn't been mentioned. He has struggled as a starter with KC and is a few years older, but had some good years as a reliever with Atlanta.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

TT knows his stuff so I hesitate to disagree, but I would be totally shocked to see Jansen or Chapman land a contract that pays $25 million per.

 

Craig Kimbrell is slated to be the highest paid closer in 2017 at $13 million, and I just can't see the jump being that big in one offseason. I am guessing those two would be in line to get $15 to $17. Will be interesting to see.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's certainly possible that 25 is too high an AAV, but we don't really have a good point of comparison. Kimbrel never reached free agency(he just reached 6 years of service time this year) for example, there just isn't much precedence for relievers with the dominance, longevity, and youth at free agency that Jansen and Chapman have. The lack of elite FAs at any other position will probably funnel more dollars their way too.

[MarkR]

I advocated for trading Rondon back in September. Unfortunately, he sucked in the postseason likely killing his trade value. Too many arm issues over the course of his career to even entertain the idea of committing to him long term. I'd be very worried if he's the "premier" reliever we have next season, especially in the middle of our championship window.

 

Btw, this free agent group stinks. I'd rather they focus on a stud reliever preferably Jansen over Chapman or Melancon. I don't think any of those guys get 20 million, let alone 25 million.

 

Also, what are the odds that Baez is on the move this offseason? He is really a similar player, projection wise, as a season ago, but with the high trade value based on performance in the postseason. Someone will be a casualty this offseason other than Soler, who's an obvious choice to go. Javy's the likeliest choice to bring back a guy who will help fill that void when 60% of our starting rotation is gone in 2018 and beyond.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Javy is too valuable to us to trade right now. He can play any infield position better than anyone else in the league, he's cheap, he has a ton of potential left in his bat, and he literally just learned everyone's name on the team.

 

#javyforever

[davell]

Likeliest Cubs to be dealt this off season......

 

10. Miguel Montero-10% shot of being dealt. Very doubtful, but I guess the comments at least get him a mention. But he's a great fit next year and is excellent insurance to Willy.

9. Albert Almora- 15% shot of being dealt. If we keep Dex, this guy gets moved up the list a bit. I don't see him being moved though, because he seems like a guy that has more value to us, than he would thru trade.

8. Hector Rondon- 25% of being dealt. If we get a chance to sell decently here, my guess is we take it. Teams need pen help, wouldn't shock me to see a desperate team give us something decent.

7. Matt Szczur- 30% of being dealt. He's kind of redundant. Decent player, but if Dex comes back, it makes it hard to see him on the 25 man without injuries or another trade. Could see a one for one that nets us a middle innings guy

6. Mark Zagunis- 40% of being dealt. Don't see him ever having a spot here, but is in the upper levels, and can hit. My thought is he's a second or third piece to any deal for a solid player that involves an AL team

5. Seal Boy- 45% of being dealt. If he's out of his "I'll retire if I get traded" crap, then this guy seems like a goner to me. Again, he provides a decent bat, so if he's here, he'd still help us. But my guess is the FO is pissed as horsefeathers at his horsefeathers.

4. Jason Hammel- 50% of being dealt.I can easily see him getting dealt, as his contract is a bargain in this market. Maybe to Atlanta or some other team that's trying to be respectable in 2017 and doesn't want to go 3-4 years on the Ivan Novas of the world.....Could see this happening this week actually at GM Meetings.

3.Jorge Soler- 60% of being dealt. The defense and injuries have zapped value here. But if there's a team that still sees a middle of the order bat, he could be dealt for pitching.

2. Jeimer Candelario- 70% of being dealt. He's the likeliest guy to move for pitching, since he's blocked, ready, and hasn't lost any value yet. If they trade Soler, it'd be interesting to see if they give Candelario a shot on the corner OF spots.

1. Christian Villanueva-90% of being dealt. He's healthy. He's blocked. He's out of options. He's supposedly looking pretty good. This is a spring training roster shuffle type move waiting to happen.

[jehr]

7. Matt Szczur- 30% of being dealt. He's kind of redundant. Decent player, but if Dex comes back, it makes it hard to see him on the 25 man without injuries or another trade. Could see a one for one that nets us a middle innings guy

6. Mark Zagunis- 40% of being dealt. Don't see him ever having a spot here, but is in the upper levels, and can hit. My thought is he's a second or third piece to any deal for a solid player that involves an AL team

Given our outfield logjam... I think Szczur is at least twice as likely as Zagunis to get traded. Szczur has no options left, so he can't be stashed in AAA in case of injury to someone else like Zagunis can. The only reason Szczur doesn't get traded is if he gets released instead due to lack of interest... But I think someone will at least offer a PTBNL for him.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If Opening Day were tomorrow, our depth chart would look something like:

 

1B Rizzo

2B Javy, Zo

SS Russell, LaStella, Javy

3B KB, LaStella, Javy

LF Schwarber, Soler, Szczur

CF Heyward, Almora

RF Zobrist, Heyward, Soler

C Contreras, Miggy, Schwarber

 

Rotation:

SP Lester

SP Hendricks

SP Jake

SP McHorseteeth

SP Montgomery

 

BP: CL Rondon, Edwards, Strop, Grimm, Zaz, Crow, Leathersich

 

And I'm cool with that. Very cool. This isn't to say that I wouldn't be happy with Chapman or Jansen. This isn't to say I wouldn't be happy if we resigned Fowler. This isn't to say that I wouldn't be happy with Cespedes. This isn't to say that I wouldn't be happy if we traded for someone like Teheran, Archer, Odirizzi, Gray, or another young SP. We really don't have any needs. But wants are fun too.

[Tryptamine]

I say making a move for another starter this offseason is a must simply because it's too hard to fill multiple holes in the rotation in one offseason. As of right now 2018 is looking like this rotation wise Lester,Hendricks,Montgomery. I'd like to add a starter via trade this off season, keep Montgomery in the pen and then in 2018 when Arrieta,Hammel and Lackey have all left, insert Montgomery into the rotation.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm almost ready to start thinking about this stuff.

 

I want more pitching. I don't completely trust what we have. But I always want more and never trust it.

[Gmoney08]

Also, what are the odds that Baez is on the move this offseason? He is really a similar player, projection wise, as a season ago, but with the high trade value based on performance in the postseason. Someone will be a casualty this offseason other than Soler, who's an obvious choice to go. Javy's the likeliest choice to bring back a guy who will help fill that void when 60% of our starting rotation is gone in 2018 and beyond.

 

horsefeathers You!!!!!!!

 

Javy is going to have more jewelry than Derek Jeter all in a Cubs uniform.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Baez for Berrios would be a very interesting challenge trade. Speaking of the Twins, I'm forever a homer for him but I wonder if Gibson isn't a buy-low guy.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'm almost ready to start thinking about this stuff.

 

I want more pitching. I don't completely trust what we have. But I always want more and never trust it.

 

I also want more pitching, but it's more about post 2017 than anything. Now hopefully this isn't too soon, but it's what plenty of GM's have been thinking since the initial shock over then tragic loss of Jose Fernandez wore off, and that's that it jacked up the price for guys like Terheran, Archer, Gray, and Odirizzi, and especially Sale by a lot. And due to the anemic free agent SP market, it was already up there. But these are the guys we should be looking at- us and everyone else.

 

Other than that, I'm curious how serious the resurgence of Jeremy Helickson is, especially with the Bosio factor, but this free agent market isn't a very good one to test said curiosity.