The Value of Kyle Schwarber

[squally1313]

 

I don't know - '98 yankees? '84 Tigers?

 

The 1998 Yankees won 114 games for .704 winning percentage. The Cubs aren't winning 114 games (call me crazy, but I think they lose more than 11 games the rest of the year), so that's not us.

 

And it officially just hit me how far we've fallen.

 

Yep. On the bright side, pythag wise we're only on pace to end up about 50 runs short of that team, which is pretty good. For as 'bleak' as things have been over the last month or so, we have the best record in baseball and are underperforming our pythag by 7 games. I hate the phrase because I hear it way too often around my white bread office, but....first world problems.

[David]

 

The 1998 Yankees won 114 games for .704 winning percentage. The Cubs aren't winning 114 games (call me crazy, but I think they lose more than 11 games the rest of the year), so that's not us.

 

And it officially just hit me how far we've fallen.

 

So, if we improve, maybe we're back to 114 win team . . .

 

alright, I gotta go!

 

Nope

[Aaron_Kennelly]

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/articles/cubs-articles/43-yes-kyle-schwarber-is-worth-more-than-a-relief-pitcher

[Bote McBoteface]

No matter how good this year's roster ends up being going into the playoffs, there will be close to an 80% chance it doesn't win the World Series. I don't see how much more plainly it can be put.

 

 

I don't think that is fact.

 

"The cool thing about facts is that they remain true regardless of if you believe them"

- Some guy, I dunno

[stitchface]

No matter how good this year's roster ends up being going into the playoffs, there will be close to an 80% chance it doesn't win the World Series. I don't see how much more plainly it can be put.

 

 

I don't think that is fact.

 

"The cool thing about facts is that they remain true regardless of if you believe them"

- Some guy, I dunno

 

 

Good point - also true for what you believe.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Am I the only person that thinks HR/XBH is a totally useless and empty ratio?

 

I see the value in HR/FB, but HR/XBH seems like a totally arbitrary and not very telling stat at all.

 

I hadn't caught up in this thread. But I talked a bit about this in my article. It's very silly. I don't know if Cameron looked deeper into it and looked at HR/FB and other things, too. He didn't mention it. If you normalize his HR/FB rate, his distribution would look about right. So it doesn't matter too much.

 

But, yeah, it's useless. He's just like, "Oh, let me take away some home runs from you so I can lop 50 points of slugging off."

[jersey cubs fan]

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[Bobson Dugnutt]

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/articles/cubs-articles/43-yes-kyle-schwarber-is-worth-more-than-a-relief-pitcher

 

This is really good stuff.

[nolanwood]

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Excellent article! =D>

[bukie]

Article from Grant Brisbee on why it's a ludicrous proposition to trade Schwarber for Miller, and yet the situation is such that it still makes sense on some level: http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2016/7/20/12235874/cubs-trade-rumors-kyle-schwarber-andrew-miller

[David]

Article from Grant Brisbee on why it's a ludicrous proposition to trade Schwarber for Miller, and yet the situation is such that it still makes sense on some level: http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2016/7/20/12235874/cubs-trade-rumors-kyle-schwarber-andrew-miller

 

I get what he's saying and it would be true for lots of front offices. Fortunately our front office isn't stupid enough to let a vague feeling of urgency blind them to the fact that there's an 80% chance we're not winning the world series this year.

[Tryptamine]

I don't understand the urgency. The Cubs are set to be very good for a long long time. It's not like this is the year and next year we're back to mediocre.

[minnesotacubsfan]

could the Cubs ever convert KS to 1st and move Rizzo?

 

it feels sacrilege to me, I love Rizzo, but if they feel KS really is that much better of a hitter, I wouldn't be shocked if Theo did this thinking KS could handle the position

[Cubswin11]

could the Cubs ever convert KS to 1st and move Rizzo?

 

it feels sacrilege to me, I love Rizzo, but if they feel KS really is that much better of a hitter, I wouldn't be shocked if Theo did this thinking KS could handle the position

I vote no

[Cubswin11]

Has there been a single update on his rehab status yet? Is he doing pool work, riding a bike, has he swung a bat yet, any chance he plays winter ball somewhere?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

could the Cubs ever convert KS to 1st and move Rizzo?

 

it feels sacrilege to me, I love Rizzo, but if they feel KS really is that much better of a hitter, I wouldn't be shocked if Theo did this thinking KS could handle the position

 

Schwarber killed the ball last year, including playoffs he had a 143 wRC+, and that is probably not a fair expectation of Schwarber's bat going forward.

 

A 143 wRC+ would be Rizzo's worst mark since 2013. He also is under team control for the same duration as Schwarber.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

could the Cubs ever convert KS to 1st and move Rizzo?

 

it feels sacrilege to me, I love Rizzo, but if they feel KS really is that much better of a hitter, I wouldn't be shocked if Theo did this thinking KS could handle the position

who is they?

[minnesotacubsfan]

could the Cubs ever convert KS to 1st and move Rizzo?

 

it feels sacrilege to me, I love Rizzo, but if they feel KS really is that much better of a hitter, I wouldn't be shocked if Theo did this thinking KS could handle the position

 

Schwarber killed the ball last year, including playoffs he had a 143 wRC+, and that is probably not a fair expectation of Schwarber's bat going forward.

 

A 143 wRC+ would be Rizzo's worst mark since 2013. He also is under team control for the same duration as Schwarber.

 

nvm, I see what you are saying, they are both fully under control for the same period, so a) keep both and b)def keep the better one, or who projects to be better, Rizzo where he is at

Edited July 27, 2016 by minnesotacubsfan

[Clem Fandango]

Do people actually think Schwarber will be a better hitter than Rizzo? I don't. Better power hitter maybe, but better overall hitter? Nah. Rizzo is going nowhere. For all the talk about how much the FO loves Schwarber I guarantee you they love Rizzo more, they just don't talk about it because they don't have a reason to.

[weis21]

how about we just keep rizzo and schwarber?

 

*drops mic*

[minnesotacubsfan]

well, I was thinking of in like 6 mos when everyone realizes Jakes arm fell off in June and we could trade for a guy like Archer

[Cubswin11]

well, I was thinking of in like 6 mos when everyone realizes Jakes arm fell off in June and we could trade for a guy like Archer

Anthony Rizzo is much more Valuable than freakin Chris Archer

[Gmoney08]

I don't think some people understand that a good hitter can dominate a series just as much as a starting pitcher and more than any relief pitcher. Just look at what Murphy did to us and the Dodgers last year, or what Ortiz did to the cardinals a few years ago.

 

Or off the top of my head Kyle Schwarber against the Cardinals last year.

[Gmoney08]

Seems like the argument comes down to whether you think Chapman and Miller improve the WS chances this year and by how much. I think the "crapshoot" thing is now being overstated - having those two does improve your chances to win and probably by a measurable amount. Do you think keeping Schwarber improves the Cubs chances to win a world series more than getting those two relievers this year? For me, I don't care about multiple world series - I want one first.

 

So, what gives the Cubs a better chance? Those two relievers in a year you know we'll be in the playoffs or Schwarber for the next 5? I have hesitation due to the lack of pitching depth - the rotation probably won't be as good for the next five years.

 

If Miller and/or Chapman were on the team, would we have won the NLCS last year?

 

Some series it matters more than others.

 

We are playing in the 2003 World Series though if our 7th, 8th and 9th was Strop, Rondon and Chapman.

 

Probably because of a sweep of the NLCS (pretty sure bullpen blew game 1) and of course would be nice to have Chapman & Rondon coming in the 8th of game 6..