On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

[We Got The Whole 9]

I'd stand firm at 3/60. I think he should be happy with that. Maybe 4 years. Wouldn't want to go 5 or 6.

 

Almost 35 year old Carlos Santana just signed a 2 year, 17m deal after throwing up a .699 OPS last year and garbage defense since forever. Probably conflating posters around here, but all the people who wanted Nico to slug .300 every day because our pitching staff was built around ground balls has no problem dumping Rizz to pay a revolving door of fringe DH types to Roger Dorn ground balls and picks at first for the next few years.

To be totally honest I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Is 3/60 or 4/80 insulting? We're talking about a guy with chronic back issues, who's on the back-9 of his career. A 3 year extension that runs through his age 35 season feels agreeable to me.

[CubinNY]

I'd stand firm at 3/60. I think he should be happy with that. Maybe 4 years. Wouldn't want to go 5 or 6.

 

Almost 35 year old Carlos Santana just signed a 2 year, 17m deal after throwing up a .699 OPS last year and garbage defense since forever. Probably conflating posters around here, but all the people who wanted Nico to slug .300 every day because our pitching staff was built around ground balls has no problem dumping Rizz to pay a revolving door of fringe DH types to Roger Dorn ground balls and picks at first for the next few years.

I don't think people are thinking. Rizzo is an elite defender and top 5 offensive player at his position. There is nothing to suggest he's going to fall off a cliff and he's not asking for a 10 year/$240M contract. And he's a main draw at Wrigley. People come to watch him play. This should be a no brainer for the Cubs, but the Ricketts are assholes, so here we are.

[squally1313]

I'd stand firm at 3/60. I think he should be happy with that. Maybe 4 years. Wouldn't want to go 5 or 6.

 

Almost 35 year old Carlos Santana just signed a 2 year, 17m deal after throwing up a .699 OPS last year and garbage defense since forever. Probably conflating posters around here, but all the people who wanted Nico to slug .300 every day because our pitching staff was built around ground balls has no problem dumping Rizz to pay a revolving door of fringe DH types to Roger Dorn ground balls and picks at first for the next few years.

To be totally honest I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Is 3/60 or 4/80 insulting? We're talking about a guy with chronic back issues, who's on the back-9 of his career. A 3 year extension that runs through his age 35 season feels agreeable to me.

 

Yeah it's insulting. How many 31 year olds are taking 3 year deals? Rizzo's chronic back issues have caused him to miss all of 41 games in the last 6 years. He put up the best OBP of his career in 2019 and then BABIPed .218 last year, 5th lowest in baseball, while putting up the same walk rate. If we had anybody sitting around who could hit, sure I could entertain spending a year to teach him first base. But look at the bench and the Iowa roster, we don't. So you spend half the Rizzo money for half the production, at best.

 

I understand you're bumping up the AAV, but he's not going to want to go back on the market in a few years. Give him his 5 years, front load it and put in lofty team/performance options, and let him finish it out here.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Do the Cubs still sell the majority of their tickets when they suck like they did for decades, or is that a thing of the past?

 

I ask because if it's still a thing, I don't think they care that much about whether people come to watch Rizzo play if those people are still going to come any way.

[Bertz]

Like others have said $70M is probably about right.

And honestly guaranteeing that a year out it might be a little generous, purely by the math. Rizzo is *the* guy on this team, and so he clearly deserves more than what his FG page dictates. But starting a negotiation at $70M knowing it'll end up at $80-something feels like the right balance of doing right by your guys without getting reckless IMO.

[jersey cubs fan]

Do the Cubs still sell the majority of their tickets when they suck like they did for decades, or is that a thing of the past?

 

I ask because if it's still a thing, I don't think they care that much about whether people come to watch Rizzo play if those people are still going to come any way.

A majority, as in more than half, yes. They sell more than half their seats every year. They do see discernible drops as the team struggles. What that used to look like was a bad team would suddenly get good and then the following season they would set an attendance record. There is a lag, so people will still show up when the team is bad, but if that bad season is followed by another, attendance will drop below 3 million.

 

The Cubs bottomed out at 2.6 million in 2013/14, the last time they had back to back seasons missing the playoffs.

 

I really don't think Rizzo sells tickets is something that holds up. Winning sells tickets. They can afford to take a year or two off from the playoffs and keep attendance over 3 million in normal circumstances.

 

But tickets aren't the only metric. Ratings are a different beast but I assume they work the same way, with winning teams driving ratings, but not individual players.

 

If they replace Rizzo and win, people will still show up.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah it's insulting. How many 31 year olds are taking 3 year deals?

 

Rizzo turns 32 in August. ESPN's Free Agent tracker goes back to 2006, and I don't see a single 1B 32 or older getting a 4+ year deal. Pujols was 31 when he signed his huge deal, and Carlos Santana and Jose Abreu got 3 years at age 32, that's the entirety of 31+ year olds getting 3+ years at the position.

[CubinNY]

Yeah it's insulting. How many 31 year olds are taking 3 year deals?

 

Rizzo turns 32 in August. ESPN's Free Agent tracker goes back to 2006, and I don't see a single 1B 32 or older getting a 4+ year deal. Pujols was 31 when he signed his huge deal, and Carlos Santana and Jose Abreu got 3 years at age 32, that's the entirety of 31+ year olds getting 3+ years at the position.

He's 31 now, no?

[We Got The Whole 9]

Go to 4/90

 

Hed be silly to turn that down IMO

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah it's insulting. How many 31 year olds are taking 3 year deals?

 

Rizzo turns 32 in August. ESPN's Free Agent tracker goes back to 2006, and I don't see a single 1B 32 or older getting a 4+ year deal. Pujols was 31 when he signed his huge deal, and Carlos Santana and Jose Abreu got 3 years at age 32, that's the entirety of 31+ year olds getting 3+ years at the position.

He's 31 now, no?

 

He's closer to 32 than 31 now, and he's under contract for this year. So if you're talking about an extension that is tacked on to his current deal, there's zero precedent going beyond 3 years. If you're talking about ripping up this year, there's 2 examples of 1B signing through age 35 in the last 15 years at his age or older, and they were in the literal sense shorter deals.

[squally1313]

Yeah it's insulting. How many 31 year olds are taking 3 year deals?

 

Rizzo turns 32 in August. ESPN's Free Agent tracker goes back to 2006, and I don't see a single 1B 32 or older getting a 4+ year deal. Pujols was 31 when he signed his huge deal, and Carlos Santana and Jose Abreu got 3 years at age 32, that's the entirety of 31+ year olds getting 3+ years at the position.

I always get tripped up on baseball ages, and it gets down to splitting hairs, but Goldschmidt signed a deal with one year left in March 2019 before his (per FG) age 31 season, and the 5 year deal kicked in 2020 for his age 32 season. Definitely a good point that there aren't many, but that seems to be the most obvious comp to the current situation, and it came without any of the past performance vs team friendly contract, more meatbally nostalgia/leadership/community/etc.

 

Rizzo isn't Goldschmidt (though FG likes him better this year), but there's a huge gap between 5/130 and 5/70. Split the difference, front load it (because who else are we even going to be paying next year), and call it a day.

[CubinNY]

 

Rizzo turns 32 in August. ESPN's Free Agent tracker goes back to 2006, and I don't see a single 1B 32 or older getting a 4+ year deal. Pujols was 31 when he signed his huge deal, and Carlos Santana and Jose Abreu got 3 years at age 32, that's the entirety of 31+ year olds getting 3+ years at the position.

He's 31 now, no?

 

He's closer to 32 than 31 now, and he's under contract for this year. So if you're talking about an extension that is tacked on to his current deal, there's zero precedent going beyond 3 years. If you're talking about ripping up this year, there's 2 examples of 1B signing through age 35 in the last 15 years at his age or older, and they were in the literal sense shorter deals.

I guess I'm assuming that the hang-up is about dollars and not years. 4 years at $80M seems reasonable to me, maybe make the last year a club option/buyout thing.

[Bertz]

FWIW Ken Rosenthal still thinks a deal gets done

 

The Cubs still appear likely to award extensions to shortstop Javier Báez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo (even if negotiations with the latter have stalled), but their other potential free agents include third baseman Kris Bryant, right-hander Zach Davies and left fielder Joc Pederson. Even if the team is within range of a postseason berth at the deadline, Hoyer might decide their chances of a lengthy run in October are small and continue the retooling that began when he traded righty Yu Darvish in December.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah probably worth giving this guy $15-30 mil more than he’s really “worth.”

 

[Derwood]

Weird reverse splits for Rizzo this year

 

.215 vs R

.377 vs L

[UMFan83]

 

horsefeathering hell

[Bertz]

 

horsefeathering hell

 

With his health history, it *might* be based on actual medical advice? Probably not, but it's not as black and white from the outside as like Sogard.

[Brian]

he is a Florida man

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

hopefully it's real medical advice

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

If Rizzo's doctors told him he can skip the vaccine, he needs better doctors.

[The_Achiever]

I hope his fans at Lurie aren't expecting a visit anytime soon.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Rizzo's decision is disappointing, especially for a well-respected figure in a public position, but I think it's time to stop asking these questions and move past flogging the unvaccinated. It isn't getting us anywhere. It feels like the more we call people out for not being vaccinated, the more the other side pushes back and entrenches themselves in the anti-vaccine position. It is unfortunate that this is where we are as a society, but we aren't changing any minds.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Rizzo's decision is disappointing, especially for a well-respected figure in a public position, but I think it's time to stop asking these questions and move past flogging the unvaccinated. It isn't getting us anywhere. It feels like the more we call people out for not being vaccinated, the more the other side pushes back and entrenches themselves in the anti-vaccine position. It is unfortunate that this is where we are as a society, but we aren't changing any minds.

horsefeathers that. Hard pass.

[Andy]

Rizzo's decision is disappointing, especially for a well-respected figure in a public position, but I think it's time to stop asking these questions and move past flogging the unvaccinated. It isn't getting us anywhere. It feels like the more we call people out for not being vaccinated, the more the other side pushes back and entrenches themselves in the anti-vaccine position. It is unfortunate that this is where we are as a society, but we aren't changing any minds.

I would agree that having Ross or Hoyer come out and publicly horsefeathers on the unvaxxed players wouldn't get them to get the shot or play any better. But the fact of the matter is, not getting the shot, unless a medical professional tells you you shouldn't, is a horsefeathering stupid and selfish decision, and people are going to point it out.

[UMFan83]

Rizzo's decision is disappointing, especially for a well-respected figure in a public position, but I think it's time to stop asking these questions and move past flogging the unvaccinated. It isn't getting us anywhere. It feels like the more we call people out for not being vaccinated, the more the other side pushes back and entrenches themselves in the anti-vaccine position. It is unfortunate that this is where we are as a society, but we aren't changing any minds.

 

It just annoys me because he's supposed to be a team leader...the closest thing the Cubs have to a captain, and he's among the people preventing the team from relaxing COVID regulations. Maybe his doctor advised him not to or whatever but whatever the reason its almost certainly based on false information

[Irrelevant Dude]

Rizzo's decision is disappointing, especially for a well-respected figure in a public position, but I think it's time to stop asking these questions and move past flogging the unvaccinated. It isn't getting us anywhere. It feels like the more we call people out for not being vaccinated, the more the other side pushes back and entrenches themselves in the anti-vaccine position. It is unfortunate that this is where we are as a society, but we aren't changing any minds.

 

It just annoys me because he's supposed to be a team leader...the closest thing the Cubs have to a captain, and he's among the people preventing the team from relaxing COVID regulations. Maybe his doctor advised him not to or whatever but whatever the reason its almost certainly based on false information

I agree, but I can also see an argument that he is coming out and saying this as the team leader. In a way, it takes the pressure off everyone else now that Rizzo himself has become the face of the unvaccinated Cubs. I have no idea whether that is what he intended, or if he was just speaking candidly, but I assume this had something to do with Garlin's comments and Rizzo feeling like he had to say something to defend the team.