The Cardinals

[David]

 

If they had some readily available replacement coming up in the minors, I might feel differently...but vs replacing him with Montero or Hundley or whatever after 17...meh.

 

If they actually were to replace him with Lucroy, then, well, yeah.

They have one of the top ranked catching prospects, #65 overall per BA, in AAA.

 

Didn't realize that. I thought about checking but I was far too lazy to.

 

Why is that not being mentioned more in this storyline?

 

I guess playing them both and working him in (assuming he has success) as Molina fades out isn't a terrible arrangement either.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Molina is already signed for '17, so a 3 year deal covers the years he turns 36-38. Even for a catcher he has a ton of miles on his legs, he's caught at least 130 games 7 of the last 8 years, and the one that he didn't he missed 7 weeks with an injury. He's only one season removed from a 1.3 fWAR season, although that probably undersells his defensive contributions. He did bounce back last year, but it was largely BABIP fueled, as he's not at all likely to repeat a .335 BABIP. Going back down to his career average of .300 puts him below average again, and that's before we get into any age-specific decline, like how his CS% fell off a cliff to below average last year. Again, framing and other defensive abilities are probably undersold, so you probably aren't paying upwards of 20 million for a well below average catcher, but when you have to squint a bit to get to an outcome where Molina gives you 6-7 wins over those 3 years, then giving him 55+ million for those years is not a good decision.

 

I'm not saying it is, purely on a $/win standpoint. I just don't think it's some automatic laughable disaster. $18M is not a ton of money in today's game, and it's for 3 years. They're likely to get some negative value out of it but it's not something that will hamstring them in any significant way unless they choose for that to be the case.

 

And there's at least some value (I have no idea how to quantify it) in avoiding pissing off the vast majority of your fanbase by letting him walk.

 

If they had some readily available replacement coming up in the minors, I might feel differently...but vs replacing him with Montero or Hundley or whatever after 17...meh.

 

If they actually were to replace him with Lucroy, then, well, yeah.

 

I don't think a player like Molina needs to be worth it to an extreme mathematical degree, but if you have to squint to see an above average player, then paying someone 18 million(which by AAV is still a top 40 salary in MLB) is a hard bridge for me to cross.

 

The also have a future catcher in Carson Kelly, a consensus Top 100 prospect, starting this season at AAA.

 

And really, those facts underscore why it's silly to make that decision now instead of after the season. Molina isn't going to be such a hot commodity that you wouldn't have the inside track to sign him, and the odds of his value going up instead of down are very low. Take the year to see how gracefully he's aging, and how loudly Kelly is knocking on the doorstep. The consequences from waiting are much less than the consequences of acting now.

[David]

Molina is already signed for '17, so a 3 year deal covers the years he turns 36-38. Even for a catcher he has a ton of miles on his legs, he's caught at least 130 games 7 of the last 8 years, and the one that he didn't he missed 7 weeks with an injury. He's only one season removed from a 1.3 fWAR season, although that probably undersells his defensive contributions. He did bounce back last year, but it was largely BABIP fueled, as he's not at all likely to repeat a .335 BABIP. Going back down to his career average of .300 puts him below average again, and that's before we get into any age-specific decline, like how his CS% fell off a cliff to below average last year. Again, framing and other defensive abilities are probably undersold, so you probably aren't paying upwards of 20 million for a well below average catcher, but when you have to squint a bit to get to an outcome where Molina gives you 6-7 wins over those 3 years, then giving him 55+ million for those years is not a good decision.

 

I'm not saying it is, purely on a $/win standpoint. I just don't think it's some automatic laughable disaster. $18M is not a ton of money in today's game, and it's for 3 years. They're likely to get some negative value out of it but it's not something that will hamstring them in any significant way unless they choose for that to be the case.

 

And there's at least some value (I have no idea how to quantify it) in avoiding pissing off the vast majority of your fanbase by letting him walk.

 

If they had some readily available replacement coming up in the minors, I might feel differently...but vs replacing him with Montero or Hundley or whatever after 17...meh.

 

If they actually were to replace him with Lucroy, then, well, yeah.

 

I don't think a player like Molina needs to be worth it to an extreme mathematical degree, but if you have to squint to see an above average player, then paying someone 18 million(which by AAV is still a top 40 salary in MLB) that's a hard bridge for me to cross.

 

The also have a future catcher in Carson Kelly, a consensus Top 100 prospect, starting this season at AAA.

 

And really, those facts underscore why it's silly to make that decision now instead of after the season. Molina isn't going to be such a hot commodity that you wouldn't have the inside track to sign him, and the odds of his value going up instead of down are very low. Take the year to see how gracefully he's aging, and how loudly Kelly is knocking on the doorstep. The consequences from waiting are much less than the consequences of acting now.

 

I don't disagree with that at all.

 

I just found the desire to do backflips (in the post I responded to) over the possibility of them extending him for $18.5M a year a bit silly.

[NonProfitCow]

Didn't realize that. I thought about checking but I was far too lazy to.

 

Why is that not being mentioned more in this storyline?

 

I guess playing them both and working him in (assuming he has success) as Molina fades out isn't a terrible arrangement either.

Carson Kelly is pretty central to the storyline. Without him, they'd have just paid Molina. Cards want to give Molina a 2 year deal, keep Kelly in AAA this year, then work together the next 2. Molina wants 4. I'm expecting they settle at 3/50 or so, or the Cards let him walk.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I guess playing them both and working him in (assuming he has success) as Molina fades out isn't a terrible arrangement either.

 

[David]

I guess playing them both and working him in (assuming he has success) as Molina fades out isn't a terrible arrangement either.

 

 

he'll get fired after they win 78 games this year.

[mul21]

 

If they had some readily available replacement coming up in the minors, I might feel differently...but vs replacing him with Montero or Hundley or whatever after 17...meh.

 

If they actually were to replace him with Lucroy, then, well, yeah.

They have one of the top ranked catching prospects, #65 overall per BA, in AAA.

 

Didn't realize that. I thought about checking but I was far too lazy to.

 

Why is that not being mentioned more in this storyline?

 

I guess playing them both and working him in (assuming he has success) as Molina fades out isn't a terrible arrangement either.

 

This is the part that may be an issue for them. In addition to Matheny being a veteran nuthugger, I imagine Molina likely won't take kindly to being relegated to a backup role and might get a little redassed about it knowing his personality.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

The important thing here is that a decision on extending a 45-year-old catcher is important to the Cardinals. They have miles of ground that they have to gain to catch up with us, and this is what's important for them. It doesn't matter so much if he is fully worth the $60 million or whatever they pay for him. It's just that they have to pay it at all. How are they ever going to catch us?

[Banedon]

[Tim]

The important thing here is that a decision on extending a 45-year-old catcher is important to the Cardinals. They have miles of ground that they have to gain to catch up with us, and this is what's important for them. It doesn't matter so much if he is fully worth the $60 million or whatever they pay for him. It's just that they have to pay it at all. How are they ever going to catch us?

They would be SOOOO much better off playing Kelly and using that $18M/yr towards, say, paying half of Machado's annual salary once he hits FA. There is a potentially historic FA class coming up and they'll be paying $18M towards Molina each year.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

The important thing here is that a decision on extending a 45-year-old catcher is important to the Cardinals. They have miles of ground that they have to gain to catch up with us, and this is what's important for them. It doesn't matter so much if he is fully worth the $60 million or whatever they pay for him. It's just that they have to pay it at all. How are they ever going to catch us?

They would be SOOOO much better off playing Kelly and using that $18M/yr towards, say, paying half of Machado's annual salary once he hits FA. There is a potentially historic FA class coming up and they'll be paying $18M towards Molina each year.

 

Yep. Sticking with the status quo isn't going to get them very far, especially considering that their team is rather old. Even their young guys, like Grichuk, Piscotty, and Diaz aren't really young in baseball terms, as they're all like 26. They need guys not currently on their roster to help them get better. I suppose Alex Reyes could get healthy and turn into Pedro Martinez or something. And Reyes, Carlos Martinez, and Luke Weaver could lead them back to the promised land. But their lineup, as currently constructed, is kinda tapped out on potential.

[Regular Show]

The important thing here is that a decision on extending a 45-year-old catcher is important to the Cardinals. They have miles of ground that they have to gain to catch up with us, and this is what's important for them. It doesn't matter so much if he is fully worth the $60 million or whatever they pay for him. It's just that they have to pay it at all. How are they ever going to catch us?

They would be SOOOO much better off playing Kelly and using that $18M/yr towards, say, paying half of Machado's annual salary once he hits FA. There is a potentially historic FA class coming up and they'll be paying $18M towards Molina each year.

 

I don't think they'll be bidding on M. Machado when he becomes available whether they re-sign Molina or not. He'll be FAR too expensive for their conservative FO and the bidding will be pretty crazy if the NYY are set on signing him. I think it's all a pipe-dream for Cardinals fans that dream on signing M. Machado -- it won't happen. They're more likely to go after M. Moustakas next offseason.

 

I won't be super psyched about the Cardinals re-signing an aging Molina. I'm more bummed out that they aren't saddled with the bad contracts of Heyward and/or D. Price. (Yes, I think the J. Heyward contract will end up being a bad contract even though he helped the Cubs win a WS and gave one hell of an inspirational pep talk during the infamous Game 7 rain delay)

[Cubswin11]

The important thing here is that a decision on extending a 45-year-old catcher is important to the Cardinals. They have miles of ground that they have to gain to catch up with us, and this is what's important for them. It doesn't matter so much if he is fully worth the $60 million or whatever they pay for him. It's just that they have to pay it at all. How are they ever going to catch us?

They would be SOOOO much better off playing Kelly and using that $18M/yr towards, say, paying half of Machado's annual salary once he hits FA. There is a potentially historic FA class coming up and they'll be paying $18M towards Molina each year.

 

I don't think they'll be bidding on M. Machado when he becomes available whether they re-sign Molina or not. He'll be FAR too expensive for their conservative FO and the bidding will be pretty crazy if the NYY are set on signing him. I think it's all a pipe-dream for Cardinals fans that dream on signing M. Machado -- it won't happen.

They seem like the perfect team to throw a ridiculous amount at Machado, where does their projected long term money outlay fall in terms of meaningful players? It's rather minimal, Carpenter isn't going to take much to keep around and he's the only positional guy they currently have worth keeping beyond the contract he's currently under. C-Mart is the only pitcher who may be worth/will command big dollars, if they try to stay relevant without bottoming out FA is the only way to get there, overpaying for Machado makes a lot of sense. Their current roster has no real players worth holding back money on.

[David]

manny machado is worth a horsefeathers ton of money and is going to be like 26 or something when he hits FA. i doubt whatever he gets will constitute an overpay. it will be a lot of horsefeathering money though.

[mikeyt34]

This didn't take long...

 

Jenifer Langosch‏Verified account @LangoschMLB 1h1 hour ago

 

#STLCards roster plans have changed: Trevor Rosenthal will begin season on DL (right lat strain). Sam Tuivailala recalled from Memphis.

 

And Grichuk got hit on the middle knuckle by a pitch today, don't know the severity but seems to be some concern. What is it about Cardinal hitters getting hit in the hands so much? http://m.mlb.com/news/article/221444434/randal-grichuk-hit-by-pitch-will-sit-out/

[NonProfitCow]

I think they're just being really careful and taking advantage of the 10 day DL with a couple off days in the first week.

[mikeyt34]

I think they're just being really careful and taking advantage of the 10 day DL with a couple off days in the first week.

 

Maybe. Though according to RotoWorld it's seems this has been a lingering injury. I'm sure this is them being extra careful, but with the Cardinal's pitching health woes the past couple of years it has to be a concern.

 

Per RotoWorld:

 

Cardinals placed RHP Trevor Rosenthal on the 10-day disabled list with a right lat strain.

This is not a new injury for Rosenthal, but he hadn't been bothered by it for the last few weeks. Apparently there has been a setback. Sam Tuivailala has been recalled from the Triple-A roster and will open the 2017 season in the Cardinals' bullpen. Mar 30 - 2:54 PM

[Banedon]

[Derwood]

lolololololooooooool

[Tryptamine]

Now begins the Cardinal fan speculation that they'll be landing Quintana for Kelly,Bader and Adams and whatever else is blocked or invaluable to them.

[UMFan83]

 

The Cardinals are going to be paying a catcher over $18 million for his age 37 season.

[mikeyt34]

Now begins the Cardinal fan speculation that they'll be landing Quintana for Kelly,Bader and Adams and whatever else is blocked or invaluable to them.

 

Not just fans...But it's purely speculation. The White Sox smartest move would be to wait until the deadline and line up as many suitors possible and chose between 4 or 5 different team's packages of prospects.

 

https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/sl-cardinals/heyman-cardinals-sleeper-quintana/

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-trade-rumors-cardinals-reportedly-in-mix-for-white-soxs-jose-quintana/

[shnsajax]

 

The Cardinals are going to be paying a catcher over $18 million for his age 37 season.

 

They are going to be paying Fowler and Molina $35 million.

[Tryptamine]

 

The Cardinals are going to be paying a catcher over $18 million for his age 37 season.

 

They are going to be paying Fowler and Molina $35 million.

 

Come the historic FA class of 2018/2019 I suspect they're going to regret this massively.

[Brian707]