Shelby Miller traded to Diamondbacks

[rawaction]

They're out on Leaks now apparently, who I'd have much rather just given money to instead of even a normal trade for Miller.

 

Wonder if we can send them Mendy for Archie Bradley?

 

Can probably get him for a meal at Mendy's. #seinfeldreference

[Guest]

I go away for dinner and come back to see this, Zobrist and Starlin.

 

All I have to say to this deal is: hahahahahahahahahaha

[TruffleShuffle]

Tim is currently inviting Dave Stewart to join the Roadkill league

 

if this trade had been made in roadkill literally the entire league would have vetoed it.

[Guest]

Tim is currently inviting Dave Stewart to join the Roadkill league

 

if this trade had been made in roadkill literally the entire league would have vetoed it.

I would have gotten next year's first round pick, too.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Jesus, Dave Stewart is bad.

[TruffleShuffle]

it seems like the braves are very much back on the right track to replicate the john schuerholtz era, after frank wren's reign of terror mercifully ended last year. in a few years they might be ready to snap our four world series winning streak.

[toonsterwu]

I get why Arizona did this, but geesh, it's a steep price to pay. They have to hope that all the expectations of Miller breaking through are true, because you gave away a lot of raw talent to make this move. Aaron Blair's basically ready for a MLB look, and while the ceiling's not high, he looks like he can be a back of the rotation type option. I ended up liking Swanson a lot more than I anticipated by the end of the CWS - won't hit for a ton of pop, but should hit for average and be solid defensively.

 

Very nice move by the Braves to get some current rotation and positional help, a guy in Inciarte who could conceivably be flipped for more young assets if he performs, and a big long term piece. Now, they have two options in Albies and Swanson to battle over 2nd (I'd probably favor Albies defense a bit more). Just means their fan base has to live with being bad for another year or two ... but if they get through it and some of these guys develop, it's a very interesting group they are building.

[toonsterwu]

Wait, they traded the #1 pick of the most recent draft? This is about the equivalent of the Cubs trade Castro, Bryant, and Edwards 2 years ago,

 

Eh, not really. Swanson was a relatively weak 1-1. A good talent, but sort of the best of the lot type move. Still wonder if Bregman turns out better, but I did come around by Swanson by the end of last CWS.

 

____

 

I love Dave Stewart bashing as much as the next guy, and as noted, I think this is an ugly deal for them ... but

 

1) There's a lot of people believing in Shelby Miller breaking out.

2) Swanson's projection isn't huge. He isn't projected as some game changing franchise type shortstop. A very solid guy, yes. WOuldn't surprise me if, with the Braves, Swanson's future is at 2nd.

3) Blair's ready, but more of an end of the rotation arm..

 

Really comes down to how much they felt Miller would break out. Would I have made this deal? Heck no. I would sign Mike Leake or Wei Yin Chen and live with that. The Diamondbacks clearly need to win soon, and after Greinke, they probably didn't have the money to shell out. They dealt from OF depth (I get the numbers, but Inciarte wasn't landing them Shelby Miller in this market), and gave up two guys whose reputations might be better than their projections.

 

___

 

Sort of reminds me of the Padres last off-season. I have a feeling this will blow up badly in their face in terms of being a winning team next year (as of now ... I'm not convinced this team looks as great as it sounds).

[TruffleShuffle]

i still can't get past the fact that inciarte was better than miller the last two years, and has more years of team control left. it's a [expletive] abysmal deal; i probably wouldn't even have traded inciarte for miller straight up. if you're making this deal, you HAVE to get back a better player than shelby miller.

[toonsterwu]

I get the numbers, but I'm not sure there was any way Ender Inciarte alone was going to net them a Shelby Miller level pitcher (no way for us to really know). I mean, what team is going to give them a young SP with some upside, coming off a decent year for Inciarte? That wasn't going to happen in this trade market, as of right now. The trade market just went up a lot as a result of the big numbers being thrown around by the 2nd tier starters left in FA. Now, perhaps the argument is that they should've tried to ship players around to get the necessary assets package to make a move. Perhaps they should've struck hard with Inciarte in the trade market first, to see what they could net in a trade for young talent, as there might be enough teams willing to go after a cheaper Inciarte than signing Fowler/Span/Parra eteceteras.

 

I feel like I'm defending this trade when I really think it's a bad deal, but I'm just not sold Inciarte alone was netting a solid young starter, as reasonable as that may sound.

[davell]

Not sure it was posted in all the craziness, but Theo said the cost of young pitching was too high. So maybe we do close that door. And after this [expletive] deal, who wants to try on some of the other guys anyway?

[Guest]

Not sure it was posted in all the craziness, but Theo said the cost of young pitching was too high. So maybe we do close that door. And after this [expletive] deal, who wants to try on some of the other guys anyway?

Yeah, it's no wonder we couldn't swing a deal for Miller if this offer was on the table from AZ.

[TruffleShuffle]

I get the numbers, but I'm not sure there was any way Ender Inciarte alone was going to net them a Shelby Miller level pitcher (no way for us to really know). I mean, what team is going to give them a young SP with some upside, coming off a decent year for Inciarte? That wasn't going to happen in this trade market, as of right now. The trade market just went up a lot as a result of the big numbers being thrown around by the 2nd tier starters left in FA. Now, perhaps the argument is that they should've tried to ship players around to get the necessary assets package to make a move. Perhaps they should've struck hard with Inciarte in the trade market first, to see what they could net in a trade for young talent, as there might be enough teams willing to go after a cheaper Inciarte than signing Fowler/Span/Parra eteceteras.

 

I feel like I'm defending this trade when I really think it's a bad deal, but I'm just not sold Inciarte alone was netting a solid young starter, as reasonable as that may sound.

 

if it wasn't going to get them a pitcher like shelby miller then they should have just waited it out. they squandered a huge amount of value and got a pitcher who is, unless he makes a great leap forward, no better than "good", and they're getting him for his 3 most expensive arbitration years.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Not sure it was posted in all the craziness, but Theo said the cost of young pitching was too high. So maybe we do close that door. And after this [expletive] deal, who wants to try on some of the other guys anyway?

 

 

I mean, we are kind of punting our longer-term pitching problems down the road this year, but for 2016 I'm finally happy with our pitching depth.

[davell]

Not sure it was posted in all the craziness, but Theo said the cost of young pitching was too high. So maybe we do close that door. And after this [expletive] deal, who wants to try on some of the other guys anyway?

Yeah, it's no wonder we couldn't swing a deal for Miller if this offer was on the table from AZ.

 

I saw somewhere Cleveland wanted Pollock for Salazar too. But at this point, I truly wonder if every team just takes their shot at Stewart hoping he's in moron mode.

[Clem Fandango]

Theo, quick! Flip Jeimer for Bradley!

[toonsterwu]

I get the numbers, but I'm not sure there was any way Ender Inciarte alone was going to net them a Shelby Miller level pitcher (no way for us to really know). I mean, what team is going to give them a young SP with some upside, coming off a decent year for Inciarte? That wasn't going to happen in this trade market, as of right now. The trade market just went up a lot as a result of the big numbers being thrown around by the 2nd tier starters left in FA. Now, perhaps the argument is that they should've tried to ship players around to get the necessary assets package to make a move. Perhaps they should've struck hard with Inciarte in the trade market first, to see what they could net in a trade for young talent, as there might be enough teams willing to go after a cheaper Inciarte than signing Fowler/Span/Parra eteceteras.

 

I feel like I'm defending this trade when I really think it's a bad deal, but I'm just not sold Inciarte alone was netting a solid young starter, as reasonable as that may sound.

 

if it wasn't going to get them a pitcher like shelby miller then they should have just waited it out. they squandered a huge amount of value and got a pitcher who is, unless he makes a great leap forward, no better than "good", and they're getting him for his 3 most expensive arbitration years.

 

Okay, but the flip side (not that I agree with it, again, just the flip side) -

 

1. You make the Greinke move, plus the general signals the front office was sending about winning now, you sort of have to do something.

2. They probably, by most accounts, didn't have much money left to spend.

3. It's hard to be in win-now mode and take gambles on arms.

4. Inciarte has been (correct me if I'm wrong, as I'm not able to flip through to fangraphs right now) a fairly pedestrian hitter away from Arizona, has so far shown to be more of a platoon offensive player in general (with his struggles against lefties), and there's still some belief that over the long haul, he's not an elite CF defender if tried there full-time.

 

I get the numbers, and again, I think this is a bad trade, but if there should be anything really, really bad about this deal, it's dealing Dansby Swanson, IMO. Inciarte is nice, and Blair could be nice as well (and it's fair to say that Inciarte/Blair alone should've been enough for Miller), but Inciarte was also at the one position they had some depth at, and they weren't parting with Pollock. Again, understanding rationale isn't my argument for the deal - it's just I can sort of see their reasoning for the moves.

 

___

 

I want to be real clear - I don't think all that much of Shelby Miller (have repeatedly said I hated the idea of the Cubs trading anything for him since I think you can find that level of production on the FA market, and often times, with shrewd bargain hunting, or waiting out the market. I'm not convinced he's going to bust out (although I guess there are some positive indicators).

Edited December 9, 2015 by toonsterwu

[squally1313]

Not sure it was posted in all the craziness, but Theo said the cost of young pitching was too high. So maybe we do close that door. And after this [expletive] deal, who wants to try on some of the other guys anyway?

 

 

I mean, we are kind of punting our longer-term pitching problems down the road this year, but for 2016 I'm finally happy with our pitching depth.

 

Yeah but, while it hasn't necessarily panned out just yet, that's what we've been trying to address with our draft strategy the last few years. Take the best hitter out there, and then load up on pitchers and hope a few hit. Nothing yet, but there's at least a few intriguing options not super far away.

[Guest]

Not sure it was posted in all the craziness, but Theo said the cost of young pitching was too high. So maybe we do close that door. And after this [expletive] deal, who wants to try on some of the other guys anyway?

 

 

I mean, we are kind of punting our longer-term pitching problems down the road this year, but for 2016 I'm finally happy with our pitching depth.

Theo (or was it Jed) is on record saying they really believe our minor league pitching is going to start really producing this year. Let's hope that's the case.

[davell]

Not sure it was posted in all the craziness, but Theo said the cost of young pitching was too high. So maybe we do close that door. And after this [expletive] deal, who wants to try on some of the other guys anyway?

 

 

I mean, we are kind of punting our longer-term pitching problems down the road this year, but for 2016 I'm finally happy with our pitching depth.

 

Maybe not. Plenty of Cubans to be had that could help turn our minor league pitching into a borderline strength.

[Cubswin11]

ZiPS projects more WAR over the next 3 years for Warren as a full-time starter than for Miller

[Guest]

Not sure it was posted in all the craziness, but Theo said the cost of young pitching was too high. So maybe we do close that door. And after this [expletive] deal, who wants to try on some of the other guys anyway?

 

 

I mean, we are kind of punting our longer-term pitching problems down the road this year, but for 2016 I'm finally happy with our pitching depth.

 

After thinking about the evening's moves a bit more, and seeing the optimism in the ZiPS projections, I almost wonder if there's some optimism from the FO that Warren claims a rotation spot this year. It would partially explain the fact that they have so many bullpen spots locked up, and also would lessen the need to get a stud SP if they go the sign Heyward/add a SP/trade Wood & Hammel route.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't claim to know what they are thinking, but as of right now I feel pretty comfortable with Warren as our sixth starter, which as we've discussed is as likely to be in the rotation as not.

[MarkMero23]

ZiPS projects more WAR over the next 3 years for Warren as a full-time starter than for Miller

 

To be fair, WAR for pitchers is pretty crappy.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Yeah, put Miller and Warren next to each other and stare at them for a while. Give your eyes a rest and then put Castro (and his contract) next to Inciarte, Swanson, and Blair. Ponder this. (Also, Harris, I guess)