Baez and Bryant (and Russell) to Iowa

[sneakypower]

they're assuming he misses 22 games

http://www.predictionmachine.com/Kris-Bryant-Demoted-by-Chicago-Cubs

 

so that's plainly wrong

[sweetpeteman]

lmao

 

Take this with as many grains of salt as you take any kind of predictions this time of year: PredictionMachine.com has calculated that by sending down uber prospect Kris Bryant, the Chicago Cubs have hurt their playoff chances by 7.5 percent.

 

In the case of Bryant — who was demoted Monday, mostly because putting him in the minors to start the season will push back his free agency a year — The Predictalator says the Cubs have made a mistake that will cost them 1.4 wins this season. It lowers their playoff chances from 53.2 percent to 45.7 percent.

 

He's worth 1.4 wins (assuming Olt is only replacement level) in 2 weeks of playing time?

 

 

I wonder if they're only calculating for 2 weeks to 1 month or for the whole year then? Does the machine account for that or is it just: Is Player on team, yes or no?

 

 

NM, sneaky answered that. Still, 22 games is too long.

[Guest]

I did a similar analysis before, but for him to be worth 1.4 wins in that short of a span, we have to be like.. REALLY BAD that his subsequent 8.9 wins didn't put us over the hump anyways.

[SouthSideRyan]

I read somewhere that Bryant and Boras holding out when they drafted him had something to do with the timing of his service time, which I don't necessarily believe is true, but wondered if there was anything to it.

 

That's 100% false. Service time is based on time spent in the majors. Whether Bryant signed the day of the draft or when he did is immaterial, he was being held down regardless so the Cubs could own his rights in 2021.

 

My confusion stems from players seemingly having different dates to be called up to the majors. I don't recall many players only having to be held out for 2 weeks. I mostly recall players having to wait until May. Maybe those players got called up in September of the previous year, while Bryant did not?

 

In addition to that, there are guys who are held down til May-June in an attempt to avoid Super 2, which allows you to only have arbitration for 3 years. Bryant(assuming he is called up in late April will have 3 years auto-renewal and 4 years of arbitration. If held down til June, he'd have 4 years auto-renewal, 3 years of arbitration.

 

ETA: Kerry Wood is the only Cub example I can think of held down for an extra year, and he made his debut on the 13th day of the season.

I feel like it gets ignored more with pitchers. The White Sox are doing the same thing to Rodon, and the media has barely noticed.

 

Well, Rodon isn't Kris Bryant for 1. And secondly, holding down a pitcher costs you like 2 starts, so it's less noticeable.

[SouthSideRyan]

What are we thinking for the call-up date. I've got April 24th at Cincy, which would be after 16 games.

[Guest]

I was thinking the start of the Pirates series on the 20th, but I could see most any time in that roadtrip. Iowa is at home the whole time so there's no considerations with him being out in Albuquerque at call-up time.

[jersey cubs fan]

the first day that the timeline allows, just because they can and that mlbpa has already played their hand.

[sneakypower]

yeah, i expect him to be in there April 17th

[Andy]

I feel like it gets ignored more with pitchers. The White Sox are doing the same thing to Rodon, and the media has barely noticed.

The Cubs get more media attention than the White Sox whenever they are good, Rodon was drafted last year while Bryant was crushing everything, and Rodon hasn't video-game destroyed spring training like Bryant has. I don't think it's strictly a batter/pitcher issue.

[Guest]

What are we thinking for the call-up date. I've got April 24th at Cincy, which would be after 16 games.

 

I'm hoping for the Pittsburgh series right before that.

[Guest]

I feel like it gets ignored more with pitchers. The White Sox are doing the same thing to Rodon, and the media has barely noticed.

The Cubs get more media attention than the White Sox whenever they are good, Rodon was drafted last year while Bryant was crushing everything, and Rodon hasn't video-game destroyed spring training like Bryant has. I don't think it's strictly a batter/pitcher issue.

 

Best recent example is George Springer. He hit .303/.411/.600/1.010 in AA and AAA in 2013. He was sent down for a little over two weeks and missed Houston's first 14 games in 2014. He was also a top-20 prospect going into last year.

 

Of course, the difference is that Springer hit .161 in the spring last year.

[ctcf]

yeah, i expect him to be in there April 17th

 

Really? I still have him coming up on April 20th given Theo's preference for debuting new players on the road.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

yeah, i expect him to be in there April 17th

 

Really? I still have him coming up on April 20th given Theo's preference for debuting new players on the road.

 

nm

Edited April 2, 2015 by JennieGarthAlgar

[sneakypower]

yeah, i expect him to be in there April 17th

 

Really? I still have him coming up on April 20th given Theo's preference for debuting new players on the road.

keeping him down for 9 games makes perfect sense

 

keeping him down any longer just for arbitrary reasons of comfort or whatever, doesn't

[ctcf]

yeah, i expect him to be in there April 17th

 

Really? I still have him coming up on April 20th given Theo's preference for debuting new players on the road.

keeping him down for 9 games makes perfect sense

 

keeping him down any longer just for arbitrary reasons of comfort or whatever, doesn't

 

Meh. Another couple games wouldn't bother me. Theo's essentially done the same with Mendy, Soler and Baez in regards to the road debut.

[Guest]

yeah, i expect him to be in there April 17th

 

Really? I still have him coming up on April 20th given Theo's preference for debuting new players on the road.

keeping him down for 9 games makes perfect sense

 

keeping him down any longer just for arbitrary reasons of comfort or whatever, doesn't

 

Meh. Another couple games wouldn't bother me. Theo's essentially done the same with Mendy, Soler and Baez in regards to the road debut.

It would bother the [expletive] out of me. He should not be down there in the first place.

[SouthSideRyan]

yeah, i expect him to be in there April 17th

 

Really? I still have him coming up on April 20th given Theo's preference for debuting new players on the road.

keeping him down for 9 games makes perfect sense

 

keeping him down any longer just for arbitrary reasons of comfort or whatever, doesn't

 

Those extra games are only 0.127 WAR so what's it matter.

[ctcf]

Wait I thought he needed to be down for 12 games.

 

EDIT: NVM its 12 DAYS not games. My bad.

[RammyFanny]

Not that there was any doubt, but Rogers had an article a few days ago where Theo was quoted as saying something like "how nice will it be to give Mike Olt two weeks to help see if he's for real?" First time I've heard Theo kind of slip up and use the two week thing.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I thought it was three weeks.

[RammyFanny]

I thought it was three weeks.

 

I think April 17th should be the first day he's technically eligible.

[UMFan83]

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs

Kris Bryant just spoke publicly for the first time since being sent down. "I'm extremely disappointed." Going on ESPN 1000 right now

 

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs

Kris Bryant: "The dream is on hold for a little bit but I'm hungrier than ever."

 

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs

One funny moment, Bryant asked what else he can do at Triple-A....LONG pause...."Play hard." Defense too.

 

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs

“I’m excited to see what comes out with this motivation. I’ve never been in this situation before. Maybe my game will go to another level.”

[imb]

wonder if boras had him convinced he would make the team

[Guest]

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs

Kris Bryant just spoke publicly for the first time since being sent down. "I'm extremely disappointed." Going on ESPN 1000 right now

 

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs

Kris Bryant: "The dream is on hold for a little bit but I'm hungrier than ever."

 

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs

One funny moment, Bryant asked what else he can do at Triple-A....LONG pause...."Play hard." Defense too.

 

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs

“I’m excited to see what comes out with this motivation. I’ve never been in this situation before. Maybe my game will go to another level.”

 

thank god this will no longer be a thing in less than 3 weeks (probably)

[SouthSideRyan]

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs

Kris Bryant just spoke publicly for the first time since being sent down. "I'm extremely disappointed." Going on ESPN 1000 right now

 

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs

Kris Bryant: "The dream is on hold for a little bit but I'm hungrier than ever."

 

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs

One funny moment, Bryant asked what else he can do at Triple-A....LONG pause...."Play hard." Defense too.

 

Jesse Rogers @ESPNChiCubs

“I’m excited to see what comes out with this motivation. I’ve never been in this situation before. Maybe my game will go to another level.”

 

thank god this will no longer be a thing in less than 3 weeks (probably)

 

Unlikely.

 

If he mashes dongs right away every loss he missed out on becomes a win.

 

If he sucks dong right away it's because they broke him by sending him down to AAA when he was clearly ready for the majors.