Russell Martin

[Cubswin11]

No I don't EXPECT this, but if we added Lester, Masterson, Martin, Aoki, and Andrew Miller to this team....I'm guessing it puts us around 85-88 win expectancy?

Probably like 83-84. I feel like an 88 win expectancy is abnormally high. Can Aoki play CF? I feel as though the Cubs are only going after a guy that can play all 3 OF positions given Bryant's position is currently up in the air.

I think you could get away with it, though he's only played ~20 games out there in his ML career. Idk if you'd want to play him there over a full season, but I think you could get by with him out there for 120 or so games. There may be times you'd want a late inning defensive replacement (Alcantara). I also agree with all those additions we are probably low-mid 80s projections instead of high 80s.

[Elrhino]

Without considering pitch framing at all, Martin's been worth 9.4 fWAR the last 2 years. He's not signing for 3 years, and McCann money is not at all out of the question. I have no interest in giving that to him, but someone's going to give him a very large contract.

 

And it's probably going to be Andrew Friedman and his mountain of money in LA are going to be driving the price. The Rays were big time into pitch framing. Last offseason they traded for Ryan Hanigan after chasing him for years, and had 94 year old Jose Molina behind him specifically for pitch framing.

 

This MLB network segment on pitch framing has audio quotes from Maddon.

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v25582579/clubhouse-confidential-looks-at-pitch-framing

[Clem Fandango]

Jose Molina is awesome, and he's getting on in age to a point where he might retire soon. If he does, I'd love for the Cubs to snag him as a development coach. This is a good article from BP a couple years back on his abilities and even has a quote from Maddon about how valuable he was to their team.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18896

[weis21]

Apologies if I somehow missed this, but Heyman is reporting the Cubs intend to target Martin:

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24783904/cubs-already-a-big-free-agent-player-are-targeting-russell-martin

[Elrhino]

Jose Molina is awesome, and he's getting on in age to a point where he might retire soon. If he does, I'd love for the Cubs to snag him as a development coach.

 

Since has worked with Maddon for almost 10 years with both the Rays and the Angels, this seems like a good fit.

 

Honestly, I would have no problem with Molina being the bench coach. He's been catching and handling pitchers under Mike Scioscia, Joe Torre and Maddon for 15 years. I think he's a future MLB manager, and sooner rather than later.

Edited November 4, 2014 by Elrhino

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Apologies if I somehow missed this, but Heyman is reporting the Cubs intend to target Martin:

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24783904/cubs-already-a-big-free-agent-player-are-targeting-russell-martin

http://i.imgur.com/6JiJXCl.gif

[Guest]

If you want to see Arguello being shitty at stats again, click here

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/11/cubs-to-make-strong-bid-for-russell-martin-not-so-fast/

[Guest]

I don't remember if this was posted when it was new, but I saw someone post it at PSD and it's a pretty good read on where pitch framing analysis stands at the moment (or, at least, as of 8 months ago).

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22934

[TruffleShuffle]

Apologies if I somehow missed this, but Heyman is reporting the Cubs intend to target Martin:

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24783904/cubs-already-a-big-free-agent-player-are-targeting-russell-martin

 

 

this line made me laugh:

 

The high on-base mark has to appeal to analytics experts such as Cubs higher-ups, including Maddon.

 

 

what is this, 2002? i'm pretty sure that even the non-forward thinking front offices would still be pretty keen to grab a catcher who posted an OBP above .400 in a season when the average catcher OBP was .309.

[Guest]

If that made you laugh, get a load of this guy in the BN comments on Brett's entry on Russell Martin.

 

I mean what do you want to look at here? BABIP? wOBA? RC+? I mean those are usually the ones saber nerds usually point to as "true" measurables to use to judge a player's worth. Lets dive in shall we.

 

Castillo's career BABIP, wOBA, and RC+

.324/.320/99

 

Martin's

.289/.334/106

 

writer says a Martin crushes the average catcher offensively even if he regresses...... so logic dictates then that CAstillo crushes it too since he has a better career BABIP than Martin already (and Martin is to regress yet, haha) and he has similar wOBA and RC+. Going by advanced stats as of right now I'd say Castillo is actually a better hitter than Martin. Martin is better at being selective and taking pitches hence his higher OBP but, again, does that really matter that much if it is THE ONLY area he clearly trumps Castillo?

 

I get it, people desperately want to add some offense to an otherwise pretty bleak offensive team. They see a familiar/big name in Martin and the fact he's going to command a lot of money and assume he MUST be insanely good. No...... no. People want to throw 15 mil/year at .250 BA, 15 HR, .345 OBP Martin yet likely the same people were probably calling for Soriano's head when he was hitting .240 with 30 HRs and a .310-.320 OBP and making only 3 mil more. Soriano played everyday too versus Martin playing just over 2/3 of the year as a catcher. I think I have finally given up trying to understand the logic a majority of this fan base uses. Nori Aoki, Alex Rios, and Nick Markakis also have similar if not better advanced stats as Martin and also fill a void on this cubs team. Why they're a better use of that 15 million? Because as of right now the cubs OF is Soler and Coghlan almost certainly taking up two of the 3 spots in the OF with Lake, Alcantara and Ruggiano competing for the 3rd. Ruggiano is likely the 4th OF so that really leaves Alcantara and Lake competing for that 3rd spot. They were horrendous last year. Waaaaaaaaay worse than what you can possibly think Castillo was. Any one of those FA OFers SIGNIFICANTLY improves a position on this team than Martin does over Castillo at catcher. If you still want to watch or see Lake and Alcantara improve and play then let them compete for that CF spot. Coghlan was a happy surprise last year. I have serious doubts Coghlan can duplicate what he did in a limited role over a full season. Do you really want to see Lake and Alcantara everyday in the lineup though? Do you have a passion for players who K well over 100 times in 350 ABs and can't walk 20 times? It must be their .200 BAs and .250 OBPs that get you excited, am I right? If there is a hierarchy of positions that need improving I'd say the OF is priority #1. Then I'd say maybe catcher, but that's just because Bryant is coming up at 3B and if Baez continues to suck it up they have Addison Russell as a fall back option at triple A as well. If the Cubs or any team gives martin 15 mil/season that means they think he's just about as good as Brian McCann who signed a 5 year 85 mil deal last year, or 17 mil/season. That's hilarious. I'd say Martin is worth maybe 8-9 mil.... tops.

 

A whole lot to take in there.

 

I like the part where he thinks having a way higher BABIP with worse overall production is somehow a good thing.

[TruffleShuffle]

i love his conclusion that he is worth $8 or 9 mill, tops. fans who have no concept of player valuation are the best.

 

also a big fan of his comparison with soriano, as if it's somehow instructive to compare the offensive output of a player at the bottom of the defensive spectrum with the output of a player at the top.

[SouthSideRyan]

If that made you laugh, get a load of this guy in the BN comments on Brett's entry on Russell Martin.

 

There are like 20 of those a day on there. But they're commenters on a blog. Arguello is a real live person who people actually cite in conversations.

[Guest]

If that made you laugh, get a load of this guy in the BN comments on Brett's entry on Russell Martin.

 

There are like 20 of those a day on there. But they're commenters on a blog. Arguello is a real live person who people actually cite in conversations.

 

I seriously have no idea why I still follow him on Twitter and occasionally go on his site. I never read past the first two lines of one of his entries and immediately feel shame.

[davell]

I honestly like Arguello's minor league stuff. It's the best we've got outside of the national guys.

 

Loxas is the one I wonder why I'm still following. As if his stuff isn't cringe-worthy enough, he's hired a bunch of guys that are legitimately awful to write for him and he retweets their stuff multiple times a day. I guess I hate follow him just to see him whine when he half ass mentions a rumor, part of it comes true months later, and he rants on not getting proper credit for it.

 

But whatever you do, don't read the imbiciles writing for him.

[Guest]

I honestly like Arguello's minor league stuff. It's the best we've got outside of the national guys.

 

Loxas is the one I wonder why I'm still following. As if his stuff isn't cringe-worthy enough, he's hired a bunch of guys that are legitimately awful to write for him and he retweets their stuff multiple times a day. I guess I hate follow him just to see him whine when he half ass mentions a rumor, part of it comes true months later, and he rants on not getting proper credit for it.

 

But whatever you do, don't read the imbiciles writing for him.

 

The daily minor league threads here will tell you just about everything that one of Arguello's minor league recap posts will.

[davell]

I honestly like Arguello's minor league stuff. It's the best we've got outside of the national guys.

 

Loxas is the one I wonder why I'm still following. As if his stuff isn't cringe-worthy enough, he's hired a bunch of guys that are legitimately awful to write for him and he retweets their stuff multiple times a day. I guess I hate follow him just to see him whine when he half ass mentions a rumor, part of it comes true months later, and he rants on not getting proper credit for it.

 

But whatever you do, don't read the imbiciles writing for him.

 

The daily minor league threads here will tell you just about everything that one of Arguello's minor league recap posts will.

 

Eh, obviously I love our minor league threads, but he does go to plenty of games, talks to scouts, that kind of stuff. I'm not saying I like his stuff more than ours, but it does quite often have some info that we don't necessarily have access to otherwise.

[Guest]

ChicagoCubsOnline @TheCCO · 3h 3 hours ago

#Cubs : The Daily CCO: Cubs Reportedly Scheduled to Meet with Russell Martin and Other News and Rumors http://bit.ly/1EloIy9 #MLB

[Rob]

The more I think about it, the more I'm into a trade for Miguel Montero. I just don't love the idea of handing out big contracts to catchers to begin with, let alone ones that are already on the older side.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

The more I think about it, the more I'm into a trade for Miguel Montero. I just don't love the idea of handing out big contracts to catchers to begin with, let alone ones that are already on the older side.

Montero is barely younger than Martin and making almost as much money as Martin will likely get, and you'd have to give up something to get him instead of just spending money.

[davell]

One, I don't think that Arizona is expecting the world out of a return trade-wise for him. They may very well just be trying to get out from under his contract. My honest guess is a Wood for Montero swap is close to value. And considering Martin is likely to get 5/75 or 5/85 somewhere, I'm definitely OK in giving up Wood if it means taking on 3/40 of Montero versus 5/85 or so on Martin.

[Guest]

One, I don't think that Arizona is expecting the world out of a return trade-wise for him. They may very well just be trying to get out from under his contract. My honest guess is a Wood for Montero swap is close to value. And considering Martin is likely to get 5/75 or 5/85 somewhere, I'm definitely OK in giving up Wood if it means taking on 3/40 of Montero versus 5/85 or so on Martin.

 

I think that's high. I don't think he winds up getting that 5th year. My over under would be set at 60M for 4 years.

 

I don't really consider $15M AAV to be a lot of money, either. Not for a solid regular.

[rawaction]

The more I think about it, the more I'm into a trade for Miguel Montero. I just don't love the idea of handing out big contracts to catchers to begin with, let alone ones that are already on the older side.

Montero is barely younger than Martin and making almost as much money as Martin will likely get, and you'd have to give up something to get him instead of just spending money.

 

I think getting Montero would be under the assumption the DBacks would A) eat a bunch of his salary, B) take minimal return C) take on a similar contract or D) all of the above.

 

But yeah, I'd much rather have Martin for just money than trade anything worthwhile for Montero AND pay him double digit millions for any of his last 3 seasons under his current deal.

[rawaction]

One, I don't think that Arizona is expecting the world out of a return trade-wise for him. They may very well just be trying to get out from under his contract. My honest guess is a Wood for Montero swap is close to value. And considering Martin is likely to get 5/75 or 5/85 somewhere, I'm definitely OK in giving up Wood if it means taking on 3/40 of Montero versus 5/85 or so on Martin.

 

Eh. I'm not giving up Wood for Montero, especially just exchanging salaries. Wood is younger, more affordable, and less likely to suck. I think a team would give the Cubs more for Wood than the Cubs would have to give up for Montero.

 

And yeah, I think it's more like 3/40 vs. 4/60.

[Guest]

Seems dissonant to me to simultaneously say that Martin won't get 5 years or won't get a big AAV and to say that he's clearly the better option than the guy who's already signed a market rate deal at a similar AAV a couple years ago. Martin is gonna get paid guys.

 

Oh, and I'd trade Wood in a millisecond for Montero. Not sure what Arizona wants to do with their rotation though.

[XZero771679666304]

Seems dissonant to me to simultaneously say that Martin won't get 5 years or won't get a big AAV and to say that he's clearly the better option than the guy who's already signed a market rate deal at a similar AAV a couple years ago. Martin is gonna get paid guys.

 

Oh, and I'd trade Wood in a millisecond for Montero. Not sure what Arizona wants to do with their rotation though.

 

I think Martin will get a high AAV, but not five years. A few of the national media types I have heard speculate have said three years, and given his age and position that seems right. Maybe three guaranteed with a couple of mutual options.