Mets fans thoughts on potential trade

[Guest]

Who would you rather have start a game?

 

Pitcher A: 9.17 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9

Pitcher B: 10.06 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 0.25 HR/9

Pitcher B, but that's not the argument here.

 

That's exactly the argument, that hey, this guy has better numbers over 3 months, so he's not just a better pitcher, but the other guy isn't NEARLY as good as him.

 

Madison Bumgarner vs. Jake Arrieta btw.

I recognized the Arrieta numbers. With those guys, I'd be perfectly happy with either starting a game for me at this point. Aside from the numbers, both have great stuff, as well. Neither is in a four year decline. Neither has had their strikeout rate drop to the point where you're entering Carlos Silva territory.

 

In other words, I get what you're saying. But there isn't the stark difference in the numbers as there is in the original comparison. There isn't a difference in present stuff like there is in the original comparison.

 

At this point in time, Hammel > Niese

[SouthSideRyan]

Uh, why are we only looking at 2014 numbers?

Fine, use 2012.

 

lol

Also, you'll note in my original statement...

 

To be fair, Niese isn't nearly as good as Hammel, either.

 

I used the present tense. If you're picking between the two for a playoff start, you're picking Niese?

 

I'd like to see how Hammel does the rest of the year first. Maholm and Feldman fell off a bit once they left Bosio's black magic.

[Guest]

I get the feeling the Mets fan doesn't want to swim in the deep end of the pool.

[Letsgomets55]

I get the feeling the Mets fan doesn't want to swim in the deep end of the pool.

 

Nah, I just don't wanna get into it. It's the same reason Kyle got scared off MR and didn't finish his argument. You can write 2 page long winded arguments, but you're not going to change another fan base's opinion. Especially a fan as dumb as you seem to me. It's pointless. I'll leave on this note though. You guys seem to like Hammel here, so even if you think Niese is as good. I am pretty sure you would want Hammel if he was 27 years old, a lefty, and was under team control for the next 5 years for extremely cheap (8 mil a year...compared to guys like Arroyo and Nolasco who are making 10-13 mil). Sounds pretty appealing to me.

[Guest]

I get the feeling the Mets fan doesn't want to swim in the deep end of the pool.

 

Nah, I just don't wanna get into it. It's the same reason Kyle got scared off MR and didn't finish his argument. You can write 2 page long winded arguments, but you're not going to change another fan base's opinion. Especially a fan as dumb as you seem to me. It's pointless. I'll leave on this note though. You guys seem to like Hammel here, so even if you think Niese is as good. I am pretty sure you would want Hammel if he was 27 years old, a lefty, and was under team control for the next 5 years for extremely cheap (8 mil a year...compared to guys like Arroyo and Nolasco who are making 10-13 mil). Sounds pretty appealing to me.

Have I insulted you in some way other than obliterating your "arguments"? You do realize I own this site, right?

[jersey cubs fan]

I get the feeling the Mets fan doesn't want to swim in the deep end of the pool.

 

Nah, I just don't wanna get into it. It's the same reason Kyle got scared off MR and didn't finish his argument. You can write 2 page long winded arguments, but you're not going to change another fan base's opinion. Especially a fan as dumb as you seem to me. It's pointless. I'll leave on this note though. You guys seem to like Hammel here, so even if you think Niese is as good. I am pretty sure you would want Hammel if he was 27 years old, a lefty, and was under team control for the next 5 years for extremely cheap (8 mil a year...compared to guys like Arroyo and Nolasco who are making 10-13 mil). Sounds pretty appealing to me.

 

I know Mets fans. I work with Mets fans. Mets fans are friends of mine. You sir, are very typical of every blowhard Mets fan I've ever heard speak about baseball.

[XZero771679666304]

I get the feeling the Mets fan doesn't want to swim in the deep end of the pool.

 

Nah, I just don't wanna get into it. It's the same reason Kyle got scared off MR and didn't finish his argument. You can write 2 page long winded arguments, but you're not going to change another fan base's opinion. Especially a fan as dumb as you seem to me. It's pointless. I'll leave on this note though. You guys seem to like Hammel here, so even if you think Niese is as good. I am pretty sure you would want Hammel if he was 27 years old, a lefty, and was under team control for the next 5 years for extremely cheap (8 mil a year...compared to guys like Arroyo and Nolasco who are making 10-13 mil). Sounds pretty appealing to me.

 

I'm not sure of many things, but I am certain that Kyle didn't get "scared off" by anyone. People have been trying to do that here for years.

[UMFan83]

Very sad to see this NSBB - Met's Refugee crossover end so poorly

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Nah, I just don't wanna get into it. It's the same reason Kyle got scared off MR and didn't finish his argument.

 

I promise you, for your board's sake, you do not want to say stuff like that. You are tempting some serious fate.

 

There are like four people on earth who aren't so dumb about baseball that I can stand listening to them. I found none on MR and you guys don't need an opposing fan telling you that all day, and I've still got too many Cubs fans to call dumb.

[davell]

Nah, I just don't wanna get into it. It's the same reason Kyle got scared off MR and didn't finish his argument.

 

I promise you, for your board's sake, you do not want to say stuff like that. You are tempting some serious fate.

 

There are like four people on earth who aren't so dumb about baseball that I can stand listening to them. I found none on MR and you guys don't need an opposing fan telling you that all day, and I've still got too many Cubs fans to call dumb.

 

Just do it. They have no [expletive] clue. Seriously.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Nah, I just don't wanna get into it. It's the same reason Kyle got scared off MR and didn't finish his argument.

 

I promise you, for your board's sake, you do not want to say stuff like that. You are tempting some serious fate.

 

There are like four people on earth who aren't so dumb about baseball that I can stand listening to them. I found none on MR and you guys don't need an opposing fan telling you that all day, and I've still got too many Cubs fans to call dumb.

 

Just do it. They have no [expletive] clue. Seriously.

 

It's the baseball fan message board equivalent of this: http://achewood.com/index.php?date=04072014

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I get the feeling the Mets fan doesn't want to swim in the deep end of the pool.

 

Nah, I just don't wanna get into it. It's the same reason Kyle got scared off MR and didn't finish his argument. You can write 2 page long winded arguments, but you're not going to change another fan base's opinion. Especially a fan as dumb as you seem to me. It's pointless. I'll leave on this note though. You guys seem to like Hammel here, so even if you think Niese is as good. I am pretty sure you would want Hammel if he was 27 years old, a lefty, and was under team control for the next 5 years for extremely cheap (8 mil a year...compared to guys like Arroyo and Nolasco who are making 10-13 mil). Sounds pretty appealing to me.

 

Scared off? I figured Kyle just realized that board is a waste of time when that one [expletive] started resorting to homophobic insults?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I get the feeling the Mets fan doesn't want to swim in the deep end of the pool.

 

Nah, I just don't wanna get into it. It's the same reason Kyle got scared off MR and didn't finish his argument. You can write 2 page long winded arguments, but you're not going to change another fan base's opinion. Especially a fan as dumb as you seem to me. It's pointless. I'll leave on this note though. You guys seem to like Hammel here, so even if you think Niese is as good. I am pretty sure you would want Hammel if he was 27 years old, a lefty, and was under team control for the next 5 years for extremely cheap (8 mil a year...compared to guys like Arroyo and Nolasco who are making 10-13 mil). Sounds pretty appealing to me.

 

Niese isn't under control for five more years, and if you keep him all four with the Club options, he costs you $9.25m per year and not $8m. L2math

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Scared off? I figured Kyle just realized that board is a waste of time when that one [expletive] started resorting to homophobic insults?

 

I never saw those. I logged off and never looked back the moment I realized ERA+ was the dominant pitching metric and that they actively derided anything more advanced.

[Clem Fandango]

Scared off? I figured Kyle just realized that board is a waste of time when that one [expletive] started resorting to homophobic insults?

 

I never saw those. I logged off and never looked back the moment I realized ERA+ was the dominant pitching metric and that they actively derided anything more advanced.

 

He told you to use SIERRA instead of FIP, too!

[XZero771679666304]

Nah, I just don't wanna get into it. It's the same reason Kyle got scared off MR and didn't finish his argument.

 

I promise you, for your board's sake, you do not want to say stuff like that. You are tempting some serious fate.

 

There are like four people on earth who aren't so dumb about baseball that I can stand listening to them. I found none on MR and you guys don't need an opposing fan telling you that all day, and I've still got too many Cubs fans to call dumb.

 

You see this vainglorious, self-deluded nonsense we have to put up with, Letsgomets? Do you really want to call that down on your board?

 

Though after reading some the posting over there, you guys deserve a pretty good browbeating. Not that you'd grasp even a fraction of it.

[Rob]

The Mets pitching has three pretty fantastic talents (Harvey, Syndergaard, Wheeler), a solid #3 on a good contract (Niese), an interesting backend guy (deGrom), and some solid filler guys like Gee.

 

As far as pitching goes, they're in wonderful shape.

 

I just don't see the need to expend valuable assets to acquire any of their pitching. Pitching is the easiest thing to assemble off the scrap heap right now. This is doubly true with our bullpen situation looking pretty darn good right now.

 

For now, we should be content to add a bunch of lottery-ticket upside guys in the draft and work off of reclamation projects. Once the hitting has arrived, we can talk about moving some of it for the high-end pitching help we might need. Until then, best to not trade relatively sure things and pray on the health of elbows and shoulders.

[DiamondMind]

This thread got kind of awesome.

 

The only thing I really came away from it thinking though is that Mets fans ridiculously overvalue Niese, and pitching prospects in general.

[flyseye]

Best argument on this tired message board in years. "You're dumb","You do know I own this board".[expletive] priceless.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Wow. Even an Achewood reference thrown in. This is serious internet business. It is nice that we will be able to look back at all this stuff later and see who is right...and who is dead.

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/4b/4b1cc8ee52b73a908a400e9a83b4e130687c64e1e49a8e3c8a1a3e238e43bbad.jpg

I especially liked that one thread linked to earlier with the heated argument between the Bryant backer and the Snyd fanboy. Epic.

[davell]

I'll say this: DeGrom is more interesting than what we're likely to give him credit for. He's definitely older, but he didn't start pitching until his Junior year of college. He's also missed 2011 with TJS. So the age thing with him is distorted somewhat.

 

The Mets fans rightly look at that the same way we looked at Shark having less miles on his arm and still reaching his upside in his late 20's.

 

Converging two fanbases over trade proposals is always a recipe for disaster.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Converging two fanbases over trade proposals is always a recipe for disaster.

 

 

I try to avoid value discussions precisely because of that. Nobody really knows anybody else's systems well enough to be an expert on this stuff.

 

Is Syndergaard fair value for Castro? I dunno. But I do know that we don't have any sort of "surplus" and I don't like pitching prospects, so whatever his fair value in pitching prospects is, I don't want it.

[davell]

Converging two fanbases over trade proposals is always a recipe for disaster.

 

 

I try to avoid value discussions precisely because of that. Nobody really knows anybody else's systems well enough to be an expert on this stuff.

 

Is Syndergaard fair value for Castro? I dunno. But I do know that we don't have any sort of "surplus" and I don't like pitching prospects, so whatever his fair value in pitching prospects is, I don't want it.

 

I want our guys to use that chart I keep posting with success ratios as something like an NFL Trade Value Chart for draft picks.

 

I LOVE Syndergaard and wish like hell he was struggling in the PCL at 21 for us. And I do think he's one of the absolute elite pitching prospects in the minors. Top 5, with Bradley, Gray, Walker, and Giolito.

 

But it's just not equal value to deal the position player straight up, based on the ratios. As much I covet that elite pitcher, I wouldn't trade Alcantara straight up for any if the guys I just mentioned.

[davell]

Letsgomets, please read this. This is an extremely good account as to why hitting is safer than pitching and why a top 10 hitting prospect is inherently worth more than a top 10 pitching prospect.

 

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

 

It's like a stock. If I'm getting rid of something that's very likely to pay off for something that's much less of a sure thing, I need much more to entice me into the second option. And I'm fairly certain based on our FO's actions, they feel the same way.

 

I'm one of the guys on here too that still truly wants to add some elite pitching. But the numbers speak for themselves and it'd just flat out require more than what I'd guess any team is actually willing to give up to get true appropriate value.

 

I've resigned myself to drafting tons of upside in rounds 2-10, getting undervalued guys in FA, and hoping Bosio can work magic on reclamation types. And I think it's the right course of action, since trading isn't likely. We can fit our guys into spots or trade for a Stanton, if we prefer.

 

Oh yea, I agree with you. I would rather have a top 10 hitting prospect over a top 10 pitching prospect all day. If for no other reason than the success rate of hitting prospects is much better than pitching prospects. BUT that also doesn't mean pitching isn't valuable. Kyle when he was on MR and a lot of you here seem to think good pitchers grow on trees and the Cubs will just pluck 2 or three and magically become good with their hitters. The Cubs are in tremendous shape right now with all of their young hitters, but you can't possibly think they don't need pitching. Same with the Mets, we are in great shape with pitching, but we have absolutely no shot unless we get at least 2 legit hitters.

 

To be fair, Niese isn't nearly as good as Hammel, either.

 

And on that note, I am out.

 

I'll respond, hoping he's still reading. Pitching certainly has value. But the risk does decrease it somewhat in my mind. Same with it being young, the lack of track record(health related) is scary. Our guys already have said they'd prefer staying away from guys that don't have a major league track record.

 

If you take our FO at face value, it appears they want to find guys in that 25-28 year old range. In complete honesty, I think we're very likely to try and fit all of our elite prospects in, without trading any of them.

 

Which brings up your main point(a very good one) where are we going to get pitching? Right now, we have Wood, Arrieta, and Jackson set for the rotation next year. Jackson is strictly an innings eater obviously. Wood is our version of Niese, in some ways. He's definitely not a frontline guy, but he's fine as a mid rotation type. Arrieta is our wild card, as he's looking like he's harnessed his top flight stuff. Is he an ace? A 2? Will he revert back to inconsistency? None of us know. But most of the national guys seem to think he's turned the corner and numbers seem to show that too.

 

Leaves us needing to fill 2 spots. Not counting depth, but we've got decent internal options to fill 6 and 7 possibly, in Hendricks and Wada. I'm fairly confident one of them succeeds in that role anyway. And I have no doubt we'll always add a cheap vet or two to help out with that as well.

 

So, needing 2 starters, how will we approach it? My guess is we WILL look into the trade market, but not for an elite guy. I think it's likely we'll attempt to move Vogelbach, Villanueva, maybe Junior Lake if a team sees something, and take the best guy we can get with that. And no, it won't look like much. But Chris Bosio has done a great job with getting the most out of guys and I think that's what they'll attempt to do again.

 

Along with that, I suspect we'll spend big on a FA SP. Kenta Maeda, if we think he's more than a back end guy. He'd be preferable, as the others are older. But it's not a "must get" as next year will likely be a transitional year where we're bringing up a ton of kids for good. Our payroll is so low, nothing would surprise me. We COULD spend on Scherzer, I doubt it, but it's possible.

 

The main point here though, is just because we've got such an abundance of position players, there's no need to go and trade off one or two of them, just to acquire top flight arms so we can have a balanced farm system or anything of the sort. We've got some time to find an ace, if we need one, but I really don't see us trading one of our elite up the middle guys for young pitching. They'll try and buy it, develop it, or trade for older, less costly types before going down that route, in my opinion.