Mets fans thoughts on potential trade

[gocubs2118]

Pretty rational takes. I wouldn't trade Castro for Syndergaard, but I would send Russell straight up.

 

James Russell for Syndergaard. Lets do it. That's the Russell you're talking about, right?

[UMFan83]

Kyle I think you finally found a board where they love you for [expletive] on the popular opinion

 

cliffs?

 

Kyle posted a long opinion on Castro getting traded, basically the same stuff he's been posting here the last couple of days explaining why it's probably not going to happen and the mets fans praised him for being a smart fan and asked him to stick around.

[Guest]

Kyle I think you finally found a board where they love you for [expletive] on the popular opinion

 

cliffs?

 

Kyle posted a long opinion on Castro getting traded, basically the same stuff he's been posting here the last couple of days explaining why it's probably not going to happen and the mets fans praised him for being a smart fan and asked him to stick around.

 

oh. i figured the mets fans wanted them to trade for one of the SS's.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Kyle I think you finally found a board where they love you for [expletive] on the popular opinion

 

cliffs?

 

Kyle posted a long opinion on Castro getting traded, basically the same stuff he's been posting here the last couple of days explaining why it's probably not going to happen and the mets fans praised him for being a smart fan and asked him to stick around.

 

http://38.media.tumblr.com/b907b3dc6c90f1f8e9ef86c8ad480431/tumblr_mqj12cjTeh1ryu3g1o1_500.gif

[Clem Fandango]

Kyle I think you finally found a board where they love you for [expletive] on the popular opinion

 

cliffs?

 

Kyle posted a long opinion on Castro getting traded, basically the same stuff he's been posting here the last couple of days explaining why it's probably not going to happen and the mets fans praised him for being a smart fan and asked him to stick around.

 

oh. i figured the mets fans wanted them to trade for one of the SS's.

 

They do, but they weren't familiar with the Cubs FO's manifesto that pitching prospects can go suck a big huge dingaling

[toonsterwu]

I think any talk of trades at this point is fairly unlikely (barring some sort of stunner ... which I guess is possible). In the winter, perhaps, but even then, I'd have my doubts. Sometime next year seems more likely, and next winter would probably be my bet. At this point in time, they need to get Russell in and see how things go. Baez has turned it around a bit, but with the struggles he went through early, there's zero rush there. Down the line, I do expect them to make a move. It would simply be prudent for them to. The chances of all these guys panning out is slim, so if you determine which guy you are betting on or which guy you have a concern with, trading them at peak value gives you that increased flexibility. Hell, it could be for more positional talent.

 

That said, as great as Bosio has been so far, at some point, you need high end starting pitching arm talent, and using our positional surplus to net young high end arms seems the most likely maneuver. There simply isn't enough in the system. They took some good gambles in this year's draft (arguably their best draft year so far in regards to taking arm "lottery picks"), and that was exciting, but of the guys currently in the system, we have what, 3-5 SP prospects with high end potential right now, which isn't enough (and one of them probably includes Trevor Clifton, who I like, but is so far away level-wise, and developmentally, while another would be Edwards, who has legitimate concerns ... let's see, I would go Tseng, Edwards, and ... damn, Clifton be third for me, I think). There is the potential to sign guys through FA, but realistically, there are so few prime pitching arms that reach FA these days. Epstein has long noted his wariness of paying too much in FA (hell, his dream situation is probably a team that is solely made up of guys that spent some time in the system), and a system can get burned quickly by trading for the pricey midseason veterans (although you certainly consider it if you are close).

 

The FO is legitimately wary of going after arms, for justifiable reasons (although the post-trade narrative that this trade shows how they are wary of young arms, IMO, is a bit flawed. Addison Russell was simply, far and away, despite offensive and defensive concerns, the best talent that was supposedly discussed. If it's true that the Jays weren't willing to offer Norris (or heck, even Sanchez), there simply wasn't comparable high end pitching talent available out there. Furthermore, I think this trade is also another indication that, while it's possible Epstein and Co. are exploiting a changing dynamic in the game, the opposite side of it is that teams still place an inordinate amount of value on high end pitching prospects as it pertains to trades). That said, they were supposedly linked to Appel IIRC (phew on that so far), and IIRC, reports this year suggested they had Aiken and maybe Rodon at the top of their board, so as it pertains to the draft, it is also partially a case of positioning and the new system dictating their course of action(there was certainly justifiable reason for wariness on Kolek ... although Jennings and Co. viewing him so highly has admittedly piqued my attention on Kolek's future).

 

As for the Mets, on paper, the match makes sense as of right now, but one potential issue is timing. If the Cubs wait until the winter of 2015 to make a trade, it's possible that the guys (here and there) establish themselves (or falter) to impact value. It's not hard to imagine someone like Syndegaard getting a late call-up, dominating, starting 2015 int he bigs and establishing himself, which would severely change what both sides expect on a trade. Simply put, a long way to go.

[Guest]

Kyle I think you finally found a board where they love you for [expletive] on the popular opinion

 

cliffs?

 

Kyle posted a long opinion on Castro getting traded, basically the same stuff he's been posting here the last couple of days explaining why it's probably not going to happen and the mets fans praised him for being a smart fan and asked him to stick around.

I propose a Kyle of Syndergaard trade, straight up.

 

Just kidding, they need to sweeten the pot a little.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I will be honest with you, if I'm the Cubs and deciding to deal with the Mets and the Mets want either Castro, Russell, or Baez- it's going to cost you and cost you dearly.

 

It will take the Noah Snydddidiinguy and probably Kevin Plawecki and another guy- maybe Matz.

 

Castro is a proven player, and all-star, and signed to a team-friendly contract.

 

Russell and Baez have higher ceilings and are more likely to hit them than your guy- so the pot would have to be sweetened and quite a bit in my opinion- especially if you want Castro.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And I'm out. I got to the point where one of their fans started lecturing me on how terrible it is to use fWAR to analyze pitching and nope, have fun guys.

 

Mets fans are in a kinda fun bit of denial where they adore the fact that all their assets are tied in pitching even while Harvey blows out his arm and Syndergaard gets punked in AAA.

[Clem Fandango]

And I'm out. I got to the point where one of their fans started lecturing me on how terrible it is to use fWAR to analyze pitching and nope, have fun guys.

 

Mets fans are in a kinda fun bit of denial where they adore the fact that all their assets are tied in pitching even while Harvey blows out his arm and Syndergaard gets punked in AAA.

 

Wow, he even resorted to calling you gay. Well, bi-curious. And he did it twice even, without any response in between, lol.

[Rob]

Does anybody realize how good Castro's contract is?

 

The market value of a win is somewhere between $5M-$7M right now, and increasing at a rate of roughly 5% per season (some say 10%).

 

Projected Excess Value from 2015-2019:

 

If the market value of a win is $5M:

 

AVG WAR	Excess Value
1       -$15,371,844
1.5      -$1,557,766
2	      $12,256,313
2.5	    $26,070,391
3         $39,884,469
3.5	    $53,698,547
4	      $67,512,625
4.5	    $81,326,703
5	      $95,140,781

 

 

If the market value of a win is $5.5M

 

AVG WAR	Excess Value
1	     -$12,609,028
1.5    	$2,586,458
2	      $17,781,944
2.5    	$32,977,430
3	      $48,172,916
3.5	    $63,368,402
4	      $78,563,888
4.5	    $93,759,373
5	      $108,954,859

 

 

At $6M

 

AVG WAR	Excess Value
1	     -$9,846,213
1.5	    $6,730,681
2	      $23,307,575
2.5	    $39,884,469
3	      $56,461,363
3.5	    $73,038,256
4	      $89,615,150
4.5	    $106,192,044
5	      $122,768,938

 

 

At $6.5M

 

AVG WAR	Excess Value
1	     -$7,083,397
1.5	    $10,874,905
2	      $28,833,206
2.5	    $46,791,508
3	      $64,749,809
3.5	    $82,708,111
4	      $100,666,413
4.5	    $118,624,714
5	      $136,583,016

 

 

And at $7M per win.

 

AVG WAR	Excess Value
1	     -$4,320,581
1.5	    $15,019,128
2	      $34,358,838
2.5	    $53,698,547
3	      $73,038,256
3.5	    $92,377,966
4	      $111,717,675
4.5	    $131,057,384
5	      $150,397,094

 

 

Even if Castro never improves and stays a 3 WAR player forever, he's basically worth somewhere between $40M and $70M more than his contract will pay him over the next five years. We may not be maximizing the utility of that excess value due to our team currently sucking, but there are a lot of teams that need a SS. And it's not much of a stretch to imagine a bidding war for a 3 WAR SS entering his prime and projected to outperform his contract by a big margin.

 

He's not getting traded unless we are overwhelmed with the offer. A straight up swap for a pitcher getting hit around in AAA just isn't happening. Any Mets fan convincing themselves to the contrary is blind.

Edited July 9, 2014 by Rob

[Guest]

Correct, Mets fans wondering what it takes to get Castro are answering the question "What do I add to Matt Harvey to make it worthwhile?"

[davell]

I'll use TT's wish for Shark as a hypothetical......

 

Bundy and Gausman for Starlin. Do you accept?

[Clem Fandango]

I'll use TT's wish for Shark as a hypothetical......

 

Bundy and Gausman for Starlin. Do you accept?

 

Tough call. I think, arm injury aside, Bundy is as close to having elite pitching skill as you can get in a prospect. But the injury is an issue obviously. Castro just provides such an enormous value not just on the field but in the budget as well. I think I'd need more. Throw in Hunter Harvey and I need to think about it a lot harder, but I think Baltimore says no to that deal. The more I think about Castro, what he's doing, and how much he costs, the less I want to deal him. I'd rather deal an unknown commodity in Russell or Baez because a) there's still bust potential while Castro has already proven what he can do and b) I like the idea of Beane's philosophy of teams overvaluing prospects and I think the Cubs could easily exploit that idea. But in that aspect, you could move the prospects for legit MLB pitching instead of other prospects.

 

On a side note, unrelated to Castro and stuff, I kind of want the Cubs to snipe Brian Matusz from the O's and Bosify him.

[DiamondMind]

I don't trade Starlin for any pitcher-led deal.

[champaignchris]

I don't trade Starlin for any pitcher-led deal.

 

Absolutely. Any trade offer begins with a power-hitting corner outfielder to even get past the preliminary mulling over point.

[Guest]

I'll use TT's wish for Shark as a hypothetical......

 

Bundy and Gausman for Starlin. Do you accept?

 

For Russell or Baez, possibly. For Starlin, not close.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'll use TT's wish for Shark as a hypothetical......

 

Bundy and Gausman for Starlin. Do you accept?

 

For Russell or Baez, possibly. For Starlin, not close.

 

FWIW, on MLBTR live chat the other day, Castro for Harvey and then Castro for Snydgaard and some other Met prospect were proposed and the host said the Mets say no to both.

[Rob]

I'll use TT's wish for Shark as a hypothetical......

 

Bundy and Gausman for Starlin. Do you accept?

 

For Russell or Baez, possibly. For Starlin, not close.

 

FWIW, on MLBTR live chat the other day, Castro for Harvey and then Castro for Snydgaard and some other Met prospect were proposed and the host said the Mets say no to both.

 

The Mets might say no. Sandy Alderson is nutty about his pitching prospects and adding even a paltry $6M to the payroll next year could be tough for the Wilpons.

 

But the Cubs would never offer that, so it doesn't really matter.

[jersey cubs fan]

Mets fans on my softball team were very inquisitive about Castro last night. They are pretty convinced he will be traded.

[abohnhoff]

Mets fans on my softball team were very inquisitive about Castro last night. They are pretty convinced he will be traded.

 

Of course - other fan bases now feel they can get Castro for pennies on the dollar because he is "expendable". When in fact that couldnt be farther from the truth.

[jersey cubs fan]

Mets fans on my softball team were very inquisitive about Castro last night. They are pretty convinced he will be traded.

 

Of course - other fan bases now feel they can get Castro for pennies on the dollar because he is "expendable". When in fact that couldnt be farther from the truth.

 

Not pennies, they think it will cost Syndergaard +

[SouthSideRyan]

Mets fans on my softball team were very inquisitive about Castro last night. They are pretty convinced he will be traded.

 

Of course - other fan bases now feel they can get Castro for pennies on the dollar because he is "expendable". When in fact that couldnt be farther from the truth.

 

Not pennies, they think it will cost Syndergaard +

 

Pennies

[rawaction]

I guess I don't see the logic. 2nd best hitter on your team, All Star at THE premier position, signed affordably for a long time.....yet you're in a rush to trade him because you got a couple good minor leaguers?

 

Maybe Castro gets traded before the end of the calendar year, but it obviously won't be for unproven, young pitching. And proven, older pitching isn't worth a trade of a player such as Castro.

 

I see no reason to trade him before you have a productive major leaguer out of Baez/Russell.

[Letsgomets55]

Mets fans are in a kinda fun bit of denial where they adore the fact that all their assets are tied in pitching even while Harvey blows out his arm and Syndergaard gets punked in AAA.

 

You don't think the Mets have good young pitching? Even if you want to foolishly disregard Harvey and Syndergaard, they have 4 other guys who have already had success in the majors and are under control until 2020.

 

Wheeler

Niese

Gee

Degrom

 

Plus 2 more top 100 pitching prospects in Rafael Montero and Steven Matz. So all in all you're looking at:

 

Harvey

Wheeler

Syndergaard

Niese

Degrom

Gee

Montero

Matz

 

Why wouldn't we be excited? :S