Predict Who Gets Traded

[CubinNY]

July is upon us and so begins the bi-annual silly season. Prediction time, who gets traded?

 

Doesn't have to be just Cubs.

 

My guess

 

Shark, Hammel, Russell, Nate.

 

Surprise long shot- Starlin

 

Sure bet- Price from the Rays

Edited July 5, 2014 by CubinNY

[RynoRules]

July is upon us and so begins the bi-annual silly season. Prediction time, who gets traded?

 

Doesn't have to be just Cubs.

 

My guess

 

Shark, Hammel, Russle, Nate.

 

Surprise long shot- Starlin

 

Sure bet- Price from the Rays

 

Agreed re Shark and Hammel. Russell is a maybe. I can't imagine anyone would want Nate at this point.

[Gilby]

Shark, Hammel, Parker, Russell, Barney

[Guest]

In order of my certainty: Hammel, Russell, Shark, Barney. Maybe add Bonifacio depending on how he's able to recover in the next 4 weeks.

 

EDIT: And if you want an off the board possibility, I'll say Lake.

[Cubswin11]

Probable: Hammel, 1 of Russell/Wright, Samardzija

 

50/50: Bonifacio, Scheirholtz, Barney, Villanueva

 

Happens under right terms: Wood + Valbuena (probably have more value to us than what they can bring back), Jackson (who knows if we are willing to eat salary, if so he could have a market)

[Infrequent Poster]

Hammel, Carlos Villanueva, Christian Villanueva,

 

Samardzija, Russell, Strop

 

Schierholtz has to have a really good month or he's not going anywhere. Bonifacio might be a August 31st move.

[davell]

Hammel, Strop, Russell, Barney,Villanueva, and Schierholtz.

 

Barney may be a DFA. Schierholtz needs to get hot, but if he does, I think he'll find a new home. Villanueva is a definite to me. Russell's veteranness gets him moved. Strop gets moved due to the amount of hard throwers we have. Hammel is the only guy we move that may get us a guy that fits in our top 10 prospects.

 

Still don't see us trading Shark. Arrieta's emergence just hammers home to me why Shark needs to be kept. I guess we'll see soon though. If Hammel IS dealt in the next 10 days to two weeks, then I'd guess Shark is dealt at the end of the month. But if he's not, I don't see us cluttering the market with 2 guys out there. We'll follow last years model or else we'll just deal one.

 

Valbuena is the guy I go back and forth on whether we'll deal him or not. I can see teams making us think real hard on him.

 

I also expect us to deal an IFA slot or 2 on Wednesday and think Christian Villanueva is moved sometime in the next month as well.

[Little Slide Rooter]

July

Certain: Hammel

Probable: Barney, Russell, Villanueva, ,

 

August

Schierholtz

Wright

Bonifacio

 

I'm going to predict that Shark stays put, be it due to a contract or playing hardball when we don't get what we wnat.

 

Related Prediction: Manny Ramirez makes his Chicago Cubs debut before season's end. He'll put up a .350/.430/.573 line with 3 HR in an incredibly small sample size and fans will demand an extension.

[DonnieD]

I'm going to go a different route and say the Front Office actually sees 2015 as a legit opportunity to compete and the market never really materializes for Samardzija or Hammel so they don't make any major moves unless they can find a taker for Edwin Jackson.

 

They slap a QO on Hammel, deflating his market and causing him to accept or take a 2/$22 + option type deal with the Cubs. Sign an OF (say Markakis), backup C, and a reclamation project or two.

 

Rotation for next year is:

 

Arrieta

Samardzija

Hammel

Wood

Jackson (maybe)

+ Hendricks/Wada/Grimm/Beeler/Rusin/Ramirez?/new reclamation project(s) for depth or replacing Jackson

 

Lineup is:

 

Castillo C

Rizzo 1B

Alcantarra 2B

Valbuena 3B

Castro SS

Lake LF (for ~ 3 weeks)

Ruggiano CF

Markakis RF

 

Bullpen stands pat with plenty of internal options

 

When Baez/Bryant come up the lineup becomes

 

Castillo C

Rizzo 1B

Baez 2B

Valbuena 3B

Castro SS

Markakis LF

Alcantarra CF

Bryant RF

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm not gonna lie, I kinda like that plan ^

[davell]

I'd rather trade Hammel and sign Lester or Shields.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd rather trade Hammel and sign Lester or Shields.

 

Too old for the length of deals they will command.

 

We can get both Samardzija (arbitration) and Hammel (QO) at restrained prices with no long-term commitments.

[davell]

I'm not sold on Hammel, as good as he's been this year.

[Cubswin11]

I'm not sold on Hammel, as good as he's been this year.

Sold to what extent? Obviously he's been pitching better than ever and likely isn't this good or capable of sustaining it, but he's been a pretty good pitcher the last 5 years. 3.7, 3.8, 1.4, 2.6, .7, 2.1 fWAR over that period.

[davell]

Even if its wrong, I still want another guy considered a frontline starter. Hell, if we want Hammel, trade him and re-sign him in the offseason. And while I know that's never actually done, he's made comments to where I think it's a legit option.

 

If he keeps this up all year, a QO isn't going to keep teams from bidding on him.

[Guest]

I'd rather trade Hammel and sign this offseason's Hughes or Kazmir to that deal instead. There are worse things than keeping Hammel, but I don't think he's so unique that we can't benefit from trading him then nabbing a player of his caliber in the offseason.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Even if its wrong, I still want another guy considered a frontline starter. Hell, if we want Hammel, trade him and re-sign him in the offseason. And while I know that's never actually done, he's made comments to where I think it's a legit option.

 

If he keeps this up all year, a QO isn't going to keep teams from bidding on him.

didn't the cubs do that with kerry wood? or was that the year after they re-signed him.

[mul21]

Even if its wrong, I still want another guy considered a frontline starter. Hell, if we want Hammel, trade him and re-sign him in the offseason. And while I know that's never actually done, he's made comments to where I think it's a legit option.

 

If he keeps this up all year, a QO isn't going to keep teams from bidding on him.

 

I think he'd probably just take a QO considering it'll be almost 3 times what he's making this year.

[RynoRules]

I'd rather trade Hammel and sign this offseason's Hughes or Kazmir to that deal instead. There are worse things than keeping Hammel, but I don't think he's so unique that we can't benefit from trading him then nabbing a player of his caliber in the offseason.

 

I'm on board with this approach as well, especially since we have had success with this sort of trade in the past and Hammel has publicly expressed interest in coming back even if he is traded.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I'd rather trade Hammel and sign Lester or Shields.

 

I don't want to go too off topic, but I don't trust James Shields at all.

[rawaction]

I'd rather trade Hammel and sign Lester or Shields.

 

I don't want to go too off topic, but I don't trust James Shields at all.

 

Yeah, don't want Shields at all. And he'll likely get paid a ton based on reputation.

[Sammys Boombox]

I'd rather trade Hammel and sign Lester or Shields.

 

I don't want to go too off topic, but I don't trust James Shields at all.

 

Yeah, don't want Shields at all. And he'll likely get paid a ton based on reputation.

 

Thirded.

[Clem Fandango]

I'd rather trade Hammel and sign Lester or Shields.

 

I don't want to go too off topic, but I don't trust James Shields at all.

 

Yeah, don't want Shields at all. And he'll likely get paid a ton based on reputation.

 

Don't trust him? Reputation? What?

 

James Shields fWAR:

 

2007: 4.3

2008: 3.9

2009: 3.5

2010: 1.7

2011: 4.5

2012: 3.9

2013: 4.5

 

With the exception of his outlier 2010 (when he had a .341 BABIP) and his rookie year when he played a partial season, he's averaged 4.1 fWAR a year. And 4.3 fWAR the last 3 years. He's also averaged 222.4 innings over the last seven seasons. He's extremely durable and very effective. If you don't trust James Shields or don't understand his reputation then I'm not sure what else to say. He's a good pitcher.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Shields will be 33 before he pitches his first game under his new contract. Does anyone *really* think that's even an option for us?

[jersey cubs fan]

Yeah, I remember years ago thinking Shields may have been a one hit wonder or something like that but he's been pretty good for a while. He is old though and has a lot of innings on his arm.