Samardzija trade rumors

[KingCubsFan]

5/90 seems pretty fair for Shark.

[rawaction]

I've flipped. I wanted to keep Shark but I'm now on the side of trading him at the deadline.

 

Me too. I think you can get a guy with Shark's potential AND another piece or 2. I'd rather save the 100Mil, get a couple prospects and then have an assload of money to spend to fill the holes from whatever prospects don't pan out.

[KingCubsFan]

I've flipped. I wanted to keep Shark but I'm now on the side of trading him at the deadline.

 

Me too. I think you can get a guy with Shark's potential AND another piece or 2. I'd rather save the 100Mil, get a couple prospects and then have an assload of money to spend to fill the holes from whatever prospects don't pan out.

I'm so disillusioned with pitching prospects that I'd just assume keep him, keep trading and signing for Arrietas/Hammels and use the farm system to build the greatest offensive juggernaut the world has ever seen.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

5/90 seems pretty fair for Shark.

Don't know how accurate he is, but Kaplan said on Sports Talk Live last night that he hears Samardzija wants 6/135 (or something like that).

[Infrequent Poster]

5/90 seems pretty fair for Shark.

Don't know how accurate he is, but Kaplan said on Sports Talk Live last night that he hears Samardzija wants 6/135 (or something like that).

 

Wow. See you later Jeff.

[UMFan83]

I've flipped. I wanted to keep Shark but I'm now on the side of trading him at the deadline.

 

Any particular reason?

 

Mostly what raw said. I wouldnt mind if we resigned him, but not at 6/135.

[davell]

5/90 seems pretty fair for Shark.

Don't know how accurate he is, but Kaplan said on Sports Talk Live last night that he hears Samardzija wants 6/135 (or something like that).

 

Wow. See you later Jeff.

 

Kind of sounds like we're offering Homer Bailey money and Shark wants a bit more than Matt Cain money.

[SouthSideRyan]

5/90 seems pretty fair for Shark.

Don't know how accurate he is, but Kaplan said on Sports Talk Live last night that he hears Samardzija wants 6/135 (or something like that).

 

Wow. See you later Jeff.

 

Kind of sounds like we're offering Homer Bailey money and Shark wants a bit more than Matt Cain money.

 

I see nothing leading me to believe we're offering Bailey money. The previous offer was an embarrassing 5/60 and you think we raised it by 30M?

[Guest]

5/90 seems pretty fair for Shark.

Don't know how accurate he is, but Kaplan said on Sports Talk Live last night that he hears Samardzija wants 6/135 (or something like that).

 

Wow. See you later Jeff.

 

Kind of sounds like we're offering Homer Bailey money and Shark wants a bit more than Matt Cain money.

 

I see nothing leading me to believe we're offering Bailey money. The previous offer was an embarrassing 5/60 and you think we raised it by 30M?

The previous offer had two more pre-FA years within it. So...yeah.

[Guest]

I'm good either way, but if we can get a very good to great package for him, I'm all for the trade option.

[Guest]

5/65 last year (when that offer was first mentioned) is buying out his arbitration years and 3 FA years at 17 million per. Hardly insulting.

 

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

[jersey cubs fan]

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

 

Why wouldn't he think that? Every good pitcher gets what they want on the market and the money that teams have to spend is only going up. Age 31 isn't an obstacle to most teams.

[SouthSideRyan]

5/65 last year (when that offer was first mentioned) is buying out his arbitration years and 3 FA years at 17 million per. Hardly insulting.

 

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

 

14M for his last 2 arb years basically assumes he sucks

[Guest]

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

 

Why wouldn't he think that? Every good pitcher gets what they want on the market and the money that teams have to spend is only going up. Age 31 isn't an obstacle to most teams.

 

Age is definitely a big obstacle, once you cross 30 it's really tough to get teams to shell out even half of 25 million. Look at Garza(remember his contract ask mid-2012?), Santana, and Ubaldo this year. C.J Wilson is the only 30+ pitcher to make more than the QO in the new CBA. That'll change with Scherzer and Lester this offseason, but it underscores that you have to be really good for a long time or phenomenally good to make that type of money as a 30+ pitcher. Thus far Shark hasn't done either.

[jersey cubs fan]

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

 

Why wouldn't he think that? Every good pitcher gets what they want on the market and the money that teams have to spend is only going up. Age 31 isn't an obstacle to most teams.

 

Age is definitely a big obstacle, once you cross 30 it's really tough to get teams to shell out even half of 25 million. Look at Garza(remember his contract ask mid-2012?), Santana, and Ubaldo this year. C.J Wilson is the only 30+ pitcher to make more than the QO in the new CBA. That'll change with Scherzer and Lester this offseason, but it underscores that you have to be really good for a long time or phenomenally good to make that type of money as a 30+ pitcher. Thus far Shark hasn't done either.

 

I mean, I guess if you want to compare him to injured guys you can, not sure why you would though.

[Guest]

5/65 last year (when that offer was first mentioned) is buying out his arbitration years and 3 FA years at 17 million per. Hardly insulting.

 

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

 

14M for his last 2 arb years basically assumes he sucks

 

Call it 16 million then(still more than Bailey's AAV) if that really bothers you. We already know he's making 5 mil this year, the odds of him making 13+ in arbitration next year are not good.

[Guest]

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

 

Why wouldn't he think that? Every good pitcher gets what they want on the market and the money that teams have to spend is only going up. Age 31 isn't an obstacle to most teams.

 

Age is definitely a big obstacle, once you cross 30 it's really tough to get teams to shell out even half of 25 million. Look at Garza(remember his contract ask mid-2012?), Santana, and Ubaldo this year. C.J Wilson is the only 30+ pitcher to make more than the QO in the new CBA. That'll change with Scherzer and Lester this offseason, but it underscores that you have to be really good for a long time or phenomenally good to make that type of money as a 30+ pitcher. Thus far Shark hasn't done either.

 

I mean, I guess if you want to compare him to injured guys you can, not sure why you would though.

 

Santana has been a bigger workhorse than Shark and Ubaldo made 63 starts the previous two years. These aren't one to one comparables, but they're also making half as much as we're talking about Shark wanting.

[sneakypower]

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

 

Why wouldn't he think that? Every good pitcher gets what they want on the market and the money that teams have to spend is only going up. Age 31 isn't an obstacle to most teams.

with the rumored demands, he's making a bet that his arm stays fully intact for 18 more months

 

do i really need to remind you of the many casualties throughout the league so far for you to see why this is a pretty foolish gamble on his part?

[jersey cubs fan]

If Shark thinks he's going to get 25 million per on the open market at age 31(or that's what it takes for him to forego FA), I guess you don't really have a choice but to trade him.

 

Why wouldn't he think that? Every good pitcher gets what they want on the market and the money that teams have to spend is only going up. Age 31 isn't an obstacle to most teams.

with the rumored demands, he's making a bet that his arm stays fully intact for 18 more months

 

do i really need to remind you of the many casualties throughout the league so far for you to see why this is a pretty foolish gamble on his part?

 

If it was really that foolish it would be stupid for the Cubs to offer him anything. He's already made enough money to retire on. He has no real incentive to take less than max value.

[davell]

I've flipped my stance on him as well, but now I prefer keeping him. We can do that AND add a TOR pitcher and an OFer and keep the payroll in line with where it is now.(nauseating) But if you do that, I think it's very possible we can contend next year.

[sneakypower]

If it was really that foolish it would be stupid for the Cubs to offer him anything. He's already made enough money to retire on. He has no real incentive to take less than max value.

except there's a very good chance that taking $100M now is max value

 

didn't Garza turn down something like that, and was forced to accept $50M? Ervin Santana's reward for a 4.5 win (RA-9) season was 1/14 (at age 31)

[jersey cubs fan]

except there's a very good chance that taking $100M now is max value

 

didn't Garza turn down something like that, and was forced to accept $50M? Ervin Santana's reward for a 4.5 win (RA-9) season was 1/14 (at age 31)

 

Did Ervin's prior 3 year compare to Samardzija's past 3 years? They aren't paying big contracts based on career years in your walk season.

[Cubswin11]

If it was really that foolish it would be stupid for the Cubs to offer him anything. He's already made enough money to retire on. He has no real incentive to take less than max value.

except there's a very good chance that taking $100M now is max value

 

didn't Garza turn down something like that, and was forced to accept $50M? Ervin Santana's reward for a 4.5 win (RA-9) season was 1/14 (at age 31)

Probably because of the draft pick and his career track record of high variance between being very good to losing rotation spots.

[sneakypower]

except there's a very good chance that taking $100M now is max value

 

didn't Garza turn down something like that, and was forced to accept $50M? Ervin Santana's reward for a 4.5 win (RA-9) season was 1/14 (at age 31)

 

Did Ervin's prior 3 year compare to Samardzija's past 3 years? They aren't paying big contracts based on career years in your walk season.

results-wise, yes (3.85 vs. 3.87 ERA), but Shark supported it with much stronger peripherals, which GMs seem to be putting more stock into these days

 

you're clearly missing the main point, though; nowhere did i suggest Shark will have to accept $14M, but i do think he's very likely going to be in for a rude awakening if he expects $135M in full

[jersey cubs fan]

except there's a very good chance that taking $100M now is max value

 

didn't Garza turn down something like that, and was forced to accept $50M? Ervin Santana's reward for a 4.5 win (RA-9) season was 1/14 (at age 31)

 

Did Ervin's prior 3 year compare to Samardzija's past 3 years? They aren't paying big contracts based on career years in your walk season.

results-wise, yes (3.85 vs. 3.87 ERA), but Shark supported it with much stronger peripherals, which GMs seem to be putting more stock into these days

 

you're clearly missing the main point, though; nowhere did i suggest Shark will have to accept $14M, but i do think he's very likely going to be in for a rude awakening if he expects $135M in full

 

I'm not missing the point. My point was there's a very good reason for Shark excepting nothing less than the maximum. Plenty of 30+ year old pitchers make $20+/years and there is more and more money available to more and more teams. He has very little incentive to accept a less, yet safer, deal today and he can't really be threatened with a "look what happened to Garza" story. Even if he does pull a Garza and get hurt between now and then he can still probably get another $50m. That isn't a cautionary tale.