Castro

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's reasonably obvious that we have legitimate reasons to believe in a bounce back, not that Castro is guaranteed to bounce back.

 

And I'm saying that is overstating it. The reasons to think he might not are just as strong. SS defense declines early, and his bat has been down as often as not post-2012.

[Sammy Sofa]

cries for attention.

 

The lack of self-awareness is delicious

 

Most of the time I'm not trying to drag people down into some self-delusional world of misery. Most of the time.

[sneakypower]

he's been replacement-level for his last 130 G (full calendar year)

[seanimal]

It's reasonably obvious that we have legitimate reasons to believe in a bounce back, not that Castro is guaranteed to bounce back.

 

And I'm saying that is overstating it. The reasons to think he might not are just as strong. SS defense declines early, and his bat has been down as often as not post-2012.

 

so you're saying it could go either way. awful

 

also, last i read, ss defense peaks between 26 and 28. given that starlin castro is 25, i'm going to need some evidence to the contrary in order to consider defense age curves relevant to this discussion about castro's potential performance over the next four months

[Guest]

Kyle is right about his bat

[Burt Macklin, FBI]

It's reasonably obvious that we have legitimate reasons to believe in a bounce back, not that Castro is guaranteed to bounce back.

 

And I'm saying that is overstating it. The reasons to think he might not are just as strong. SS defense declines early, and his bat has been down as often as not post-2012.

 

WAR, by half season, since 2011: 1.5, 1.3, 1.3, 1.8, .1, -.2, 1.7, .9, -.6.

 

I just don't see how it's as likely as not that he stays anywhere near his -.6 pace. Yes, it sucks that his year has been terrible (and it's concerning because that's our most recent sample), but I think we have enough reasonable evidence that he can and has played better.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Four of the last five on your list are below average.

[Burt Macklin, FBI]

Four of the last five on your list are below average.

 

I'm not championing a sudden return to league average - my expectations are as damped as any by the last 2.5 years. From what we thought at the end of 2012 to where we are today is really, really disappointing.

 

That said, there's a huge gulf between 'league average' and 'gaping black hole', and the data points to him moving safely away from the latter - even if you pessimistically cut the data off after 2012, he's averaged just under 1 WAR/year, and while that's hugely disappointing from the end-of-year-2012 vantage point, it's a useful player for the rest of the year, particularly considering his contract and the lack of a good replacement.

[CubColtPacer]

The scary thing is that last year is starting to look like the outlier in Castro's peripherals. The strikeout rate has been up for 2.5 years, and that is mostly due to the fact that his contact rate has gone down every single year of his career. Last year he compensated for that by increasing his hr rate per fly ball to the highest rate of his career and having a Babip that was closer to his early years despite hitting more fly balls than normal along with the highest walk rate of his career.

 

Then this year has been a disaster peripherally. Contact rate has gone down again, he's hitting tons of soft hits, very few line drives, lots of infield pop ups, walk rate is terrible, etc. He is just lost at the plate.

 

I have a hard time seeing him return to his early years with his contact rate degrading so badly. Last year was an encouraging sign that he possibly could replace that with walks and power, but this year is changing that possibility quickly. If the Cubs get overall average play from Castro over the next few years, it might be a surprise at this point.

[Sammy Sofa]

Is there any kind of significant difference offensively between this year and 2013?

[CubColtPacer]

Is there any kind of significant difference offensively between this year and 2013?

 

2013 was solidly better pretty much across the board other than a higher strikeout rate. That's especially true in the type of contact stats. The good news is that eyeballing the 2013 numbers they look a little unlucky.

[sontensei]

Is there any kind of significant difference offensively between this year and 2013?

 

2013 was solidly better pretty much across the board other than a higher strikeout rate. That's especially true in the type of contact stats. The good news is that eyeballing the 2013 numbers they look a little unlucky.

 

Castro is just a bum. period.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Is there any kind of significant difference offensively between this year and 2013?

 

2013 was solidly better pretty much across the board other than a higher strikeout rate. That's especially true in the type of contact stats. The good news is that eyeballing the 2013 numbers they look a little unlucky.

 

Castro is just a bum. period.

Thank you so kindly for finally settling this. Shut the board down.

[abuck1220]

how many 9th inning or later game winners/tie-ers is that for castro?

 

walk off vs kimbrel

chopper over the 3b’s head @ pitt

Walk off vs cincy #1

Walk off vs cincy #2

extra innings @ twins

last night

[treebird]

how many 9th inning or later game winners/tie-ers is that for castro?

 

walk off vs kimbrel

chopper over the 3b’s head @ pitt

Walk off vs cincy #1

Walk off vs cincy #2

extra innings @ twins

last night

 

wow so there's at least 6 war right there

[Sammy Sofa]

Starlin in the 9th this year:

 

.345 .367 .483 .849

 

In extras:

 

.600 .692 .600 1.292

 

It's the one thing he's good at!

[BigSlick]

We're in this weird position were Starlin Castro really, indisputably, sucks, but keeps hitting game winners and walk offs.

 

I mean, its whatever, I hope they still find a way to trade him and that his value is seen as more than it is by opposing GMs but I think for the most part the meatballs are out of management positions and smarter numbers people are in positions of power.

 

If he can be our Alex Gonzalez, like, thats fine too. I just would prefer someone thats 1.cheaper 2.better offensively and 3. better defensively at short stop. All of which we can achieve, at this exact moment.

[abuck1220]

We're in this weird position were Starlin Castro really, indisputably, sucks, but keeps hitting game winners and walk offs.

 

I mean, its whatever, I hope they still find a way to trade him and that his value is seen as more than it is by opposing GMs but I think for the most part the meatballs are out of management positions and smarter numbers people are in positions of power.

 

If he can be our Alex Gonzalez, like, thats fine too. I just would prefer someone thats 1.cheaper 2.better offensively and 3. better defensively at short stop. All of which we can achieve, at this exact moment.

 

not gonna disagree that castro has sucked, but who is the "better offensively" option you speak of?

[Sammy Sofa]

I like July Castro. I hope he sticks around.

[Guest]

We're in this weird position were Starlin Castro really, indisputably, sucks, but keeps hitting game winners and walk offs.

 

I mean, its whatever, I hope they still find a way to trade him and that his value is seen as more than it is by opposing GMs but I think for the most part the meatballs are out of management positions and smarter numbers people are in positions of power.

 

If he can be our Alex Gonzalez, like, thats fine too. I just would prefer someone thats 1.cheaper 2.better offensively and 3. better defensively at short stop. All of which we can achieve, at this exact moment.

 

not gonna disagree that castro has sucked, but who is the "better offensively" option you speak of?

 

yeah

 

it's at least conceivable that baez could outperform 2015 starlin, but even he isn't an available option right now.

[Guest]

Starlin in the 9th this year:

 

.345 .367 .483 .849

 

In extras:

 

.600 .692 .600 1.292

 

It's the one thing he's good at!

So...pinch hitter?

[George Hayduke]

how many 9th inning or later game winners/tie-ers is that for castro?

 

walk off vs kimbrel

chopper over the 3b’s head @ pitt

Walk off vs cincy #1

Walk off vs cincy #2

extra innings @ twins

last night

 

wow so there's at least 6 war right there

Top notch.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Starlin in the 9th this year:

 

.345 .367 .483 .849

 

In extras:

 

.600 .692 .600 1.292

 

It's the one thing he's good at!

 

He's clutch.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Obviously, Castro is a 3 time All Star, a prestigious honor that will never be taken away from him. BUT... does anyone know what kind of seasons he was having at the time of those selections? Basically, I'm wondering if he was truly an "All Star" or was he just the best representative at the time from 3 really poor Cubs teams, because I honestly can't remember.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Obviously, Castro is a 3 time All Star, a prestigious honor that will never be taken away from him. BUT... does anyone know what kind of seasons he was having at the time of those selections? Basically, I'm wondering if he was truly an "All Star" or was he just the best representative at the time from 3 really poor Cubs teams, because I honestly can't remember.

2012 was the year of LaHair, and Rizzo was also chosen last year so he wasn't the "we gotta have someone" pick those years. He was the only one in 2011, but he was also hitting over 300 as a 21 year old after having a good 2010 so it was by no means a stretch.