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Variance/Reasons for Optimism?

CubColtPacer

By CubColtPacer,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
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Yeah, as far as I'm concerned, if they can keep up something similar to this through the trade deadline, then Epstein did his job for this season.

 

I also don't want to see them gut 2014 too deeply at the deadline. I'd rather not have to replace guys like DeJesus, Barney, Villanueva, Fujikawa, Hairston this offseason. Dump the guys whose contracts are expiring, reload those spots with more short-term FAs in the offseason, and take another shot in 2014 while you wait for your farm system to mature.

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crazycooter Prep Ball

crazycooter

Verified Member
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@BleacherNation: #Cubs: Another Way to Show Just How (Historically) Improbable This Cubs Season Has Been http://t.co/rTyVObOTMX

 

Figured this to be a good spot for this

 

Good Lord, the comments.

 

I'm not the "cooter" that posted those comments. I just wanted to get that out there.

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
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Anyone remember an ESPN article about the 2002 Cubs that made many of the same arguments? I think it was through a partnership with Baseball Prospectus or something.

 

It was posted right after the season, iirc, and talked about how the Cubs were insanely unlucky that year in converting bases into runs, which was why they had a run differential of -56 despite an OPS differential of -.004. And then they were 7 games under their pythagorean record as well (69 wins instead of 76).

 

It argued that the Cubs were a .500 team in disguise, and that whomever managed the team in 2003 would look like a genius when they made the turnaround.

 

We're seeing something very similar here.

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
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Let's do another round of pointless mathturbating.

 

Going into today, Baseball Prospectus had our 3rd-order win percentage at .542.

 

With 50 games to play until the deadline, we would need to go 29-21 to be .500 by then.

 

If we have a 54.2% chance of winning each game, our odds of being at least .500 by the deadline are 35%.

 

If we played out the remaining 110 games with that win probability, our odds of being .500 or better at the end of the season would be 59%.

 

BP projects it would take 88 wins to get the 2nd wild card. We would have a 13% chance of reaching that.

davell Chicago Cubs

davell

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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It's impressive, in many ways, how well they've built this year, with the limited resources. That said, the 3 teams in our division that are ahead of us are very likely to stay that way. It may be unpopular to say, but I could see Theo blowing this thing up very early, so not to give too much of a "fools gold" type hope. It'd benefit us more longterm anyway.
Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
It's impressive, in many ways, how well they've built this year, with the limited resources.

I don't know why you keep saying that.

davell Chicago Cubs

davell

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It's impressive, in many ways, how well they've built this year, with the limited resources.

I don't know why you keep saying that.

 

 

Because its easy to imagine when they have money to spend how efficient things will be.

Soul MVP

Soul

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Well, they've climbed off the floor of the National league (barely), and I like it, for the moment. Always helps morale to beat the SouthSiders. Let's see if they can continue doing a few nice things. Give me June, and then let's see where we stand.
Backtobanks Knoxville Smokies

Backtobanks

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It's impressive, in many ways, how well they've built this year, with the limited resources. That said, the 3 teams in our division that are ahead of us are very likely to stay that way. It may be unpopular to say, but I could see Theo blowing this thing up very early, so not to give too much of a "fools gold" type hope. It'd benefit us more longterm anyway.

 

I was going to post something similar to yours because it's obvious that the plan is still to trade off assets at the deadline. Obviously some of the biggest reasons for our positive variance numbers will be traded (Feldman, DeJesus, Garza, Gregg, Russell, etc.), so we can only hope that the return for any player(s) traded will be solid prospects for the future. With that many players possibly being dealt, it's hard to make any predictions about next year based on the variance numbers for this year.

jersey cubs fan GOAT

jersey cubs fan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It's impressive, in many ways, how well they've built this year, with the limited resources.

I don't know why you keep saying that.

 

 

Because its easy to imagine when they have money to spend how efficient things will be.

 

They still had a very high payroll with lots of money to spend last winter and managed to put together a team that could be .500.

 

What the F is impressive about that?

 

Nothing.

davell Chicago Cubs

davell

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It's impressive, in many ways, how well they've built this year, with the limited resources.

I don't know why you keep saying that.

 

 

Because its easy to imagine when they have money to spend how efficient things will be.

 

They still had a very high payroll with lots of money to spend last winter and managed to put together a team that could be .500.

 

What the F is impressive about that?

 

Nothing.

 

Is this a joke? They went into the season with the 14th highest payroll in MLB. First off, that qualifies as "very high"?

 

They were restricted within that number by slightly more than 25%, by Soriano and Marmol, which weren't movable without eating the majority of their money anyway. That money alone could very easily give this team a very different look.

 

It's very easy to look at who they can return heading into 2014, with the cash they'll have coming off the books and the system they'll have at that point and see a team thats a playoff contender in 2014. With no additional help from Ricketts.

jersey cubs fan GOAT

jersey cubs fan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Well, they've climbed off the floor of the National league (barely)

 

The Marlins are like 18 games worse

 

That's the septic tank. The Brewers are in the basement and the Cubs are climbing up the steps to the first floor, having just realized it's 10 a.m. and they missed first period chemistry.

Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Obviously some of the biggest reasons for our positive variance numbers will be traded (Feldman, DeJesus, Garza, Gregg, Russell, etc.)

 

How is Garza on of the "biggest reasons?" He's pitched in two games and was terrible in one of them.

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