Variance/Reasons for Optimism?

[CubColtPacer]

Are the Cubs better than their record? My post is not going to get into each individual player and how they are overperforming/underperforming. For the purposes of this post, it assumes they are balancing out. If they are not that's another important variable to consider when looking at a team's true talent level. Instead, I looked into things that commonly have a baseline and can be used to measure variance. Pythagorean record, BABIP compared to league median, and performance in clutch situations. What I found is that the Cubs so far have been on the unlucky side of all 3.

 

1. Pythagorean record. Currently the Cubs are still 1 game behind their pythagorean record. They have been outscored by 13 runs on the season. That has gotten much closer to even with the Cubs close victories over the last few days.

 

2. BABIP. The Cubs are 27th with a .267 BABIP which is 24 points behind league median of .291. That is despite a line drive percentage of 19.6% (just behind league median of 20.0%), one of the lowest IFFB% (25th at 7.7%, league median is 10.35), and a GB/FB ratio that is slightly weighted towards fly balls but not much (1.17 vs league median of 1.26). Their HR/FB rate is elevated: 12.7 vs league median of 10.95.

 

3. Clutch hitting. This is absurd how the Cubs seem to start every season with terrible clutch hitting. Some years it has evened out, while a couple years recently it hasn't. This year is following that trend.

 

Here's the National League total batting line so far: .246/.313/.387.

Here's the Cubs line so far: .230/.283/.396.

 

So clearly the Cubs are a very bad offense, clutch hitting or no clutch hitting. 30 points of OBP behind league average is only ahead of Miami, and they have to jump up 20 points just to reach the next team. There's no amount of variance that can even turn the offense into average.

 

But here is the numbers with runners in scoring position:

 

National League: .252/.340/.383

Cubs: .152/.253/.244

 

That's not a misprint. The National League gets better overall with runners in scoring position. The Cubs are 180 OPS points worse so far. If they were the same amount behind the National League in this category as they are in the total (which is what it would theoretically regress to eventually), they would be 205 OPS points better. The OBP difference for the Cubs isn't that bad, but it comes from actually outwalking the National League with RISP, despite being way behind in the walks category for the totals. And if you have to concentrate your base hits in one category and your walks in another, you'd want to do it the exact opposite way the Cubs have.

 

Their RISP with 2 outs and bases loaded numbers are similarly atrocious.

 

There is some evidence of some potential positive variance on the pitching side that I'll leave for another post, but it's not nearly as strong as the hitting side. Are there reasons the Cubs might underperform in any of these areas? Or is this really a case of an average team whose variance has gone very badly so far?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Absolutely yes. Heck, even after this three-game win streak, they are still only on pace for 63 wins. They are much better than that and don't belong in a conversation with the Marlins or Astros, at least not until a selloff.

[Little Slide Rooter]

While I'm against the shuffling the lineup after every loss thing, I do think it's time to change things around. As long as super-Schierholtz is here, we should be making the most out of it and batting him 3rd, as we have nothing resembling a 3 hitter on this team. I'm not saying that we should go back to the old lineup shuffle every time we lose, but we've certainly had enough indication that it's time to try something new.

 

Vs. Righties

 

DeJesus

Soriano

Schierholtz

Rizzo

Castro

Valbuena

Castillo

Barney

(Maybe even swap Castro/Castillo if Castro continues to struggle)

 

Vs. Lefties

DeJesus

Barney

Soriano

Rizzo

Castro

Schierholtz

Castillo

Ransom

-Schierholtz' splits aren't as lopsided as I would expect, though has a small sample size vs RHP and Hairston probably couldn't hit Jim Abbott if he were throwing as a righty.

[Sammy Sofa]

Again, no.

[neely crenshaw]

The only potential change I see in the platoon is losing Sappelt, I'm guessing Borbon moves into this spot soon.

Hairston has a lengthy track record. It's not great, but very solid vs lefties. He'll add pop when he gets his at bats. It's tempting to play Nate more, but I'd hate to mess with his success right now as long as you have a proven option.

Infield ride Ransom and Valbuena for as long as you can. History says it won't last but doesn't matter right now.

[Guest]

Absolutely yes. Heck, even after this three-game win streak, they are still only on pace for 63 wins. They are much better than that and don't belong in a conversation with the Marlins or Astros, at least not until a selloff.

You still think this?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Absolutely yes. Heck, even after this three-game win streak, they are still only on pace for 63 wins. They are much better than that and don't belong in a conversation with the Marlins or Astros, at least not until a selloff.

You still think this?

 

Absolutely yes. A 77-win pace would be 15-16 at this point. Being four games behind your true talent level is not exactly unheard of at this point.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Absolutely yes. Heck, even after this three-game win streak, they are still only on pace for 63 wins. They are much better than that and don't belong in a conversation with the Marlins or Astros, at least not until a selloff.

You still think this?

 

They certainly don't belong in the conversation with the Astros, Marlins, or even Padres but the amount of times they've snatched defeat from the jaws of victory may well help their cause for a top 5 pick. Maybe 3. The Angels and Blue Jays aren't likely to stay as bad as they are, but the Mets, Mariners, White Sox, and Twins are all in the same category. Maybe the Brewers as well, unless Carlos Gomez and Yuniesky Betencourt really have finally discovered something other than Ryan Braun's medicine chest.

 

It all depends on when the truck is actually backed up. Even then, we're not likely to have the same caliber of awful making up 4/5 of the starting rotation. 100 Ls isn't out of the question, but if it happens it won't come from the current roster.

[neely crenshaw]

Yes, there is some statistical data that says we should have a better record.

There is also have pitchers who are far outperforming there norms...can they continue?

We have hitters far outperforming even our hopes for them...can they continue?

Our bullpen is being bouyed by Kevin Gregg.

So my worry is that as we begin to hit with RISP, and our awful bullpen gets to a somewhat stable point, these other areas fall back to norms..balancing out the equation.

 

Also keep in mind that we are "only 4 games behind" our projected average but we are also 5-3 vs Miami and San Diego but 6-17 against everyone else. Since we play a lot of more of the "everybody else" we may play better, hit better, field better and see only marginal improvement in our record.

[Sammy Sofa]

Thanks for doing that thing you do.

[neely crenshaw]

Thanks for commenting....

[Hawk4Hall]

I'm trying to keep my optimism at bay here.

[KaiserCesar]

The only team with a spread anywhere close to the Cubs between actual win % and the 3rd order win % per BP adjusted standings is surprisingly the Tigers (.595 vs .701). Before tonight's game, the Cubs 3rd order .522. Taking 2 out of 3 has felt good these last two series, but a sweep of the Mets this weekend would get me on board with this team.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The only team with a spread anywhere close to the Cubs between actual win % and the 3rd order win % per BP adjusted standings is surprisingly the Tigers (.595 vs .701). Before tonight's game, the Cubs 3rd order .522. Taking 2 out of 3 has felt good these last two series, but a sweep of the Mets this weekend would get me on board with this team.

 

I can see it all coming together.

 

Garza's return pushes Villanueva to the pen. They decide to break Vizcaino in for 2014 in the pen. Baker and Lim come back and suddenly we're loaded with pitching even in the bullpen. We draft Appel or Gray and decide to get them some MLB bullpen time to end the season.

 

We go 17-11 between now and June 16, sparking a spirited debate about whether we should be buyers or sellers. We're buyers and pick up Headley from San Diego.

 

We steal the wild card from Cincinnati and enter the playoffs with:

 

DeJesus/Castro/Rizzo/Headley/Soriano/Schierholtz/Valbuena/Castillo

 

Samardzija/Garza/Jackson/Wood

Gregg/Vizcaino/Villanueva/Feldman/Lim/Baker/No2Draftpick

 

Samardzija strikes out 16 Braves in the WC game and we cruise from there through three mor short series. Epstein drops the mic, declaring "Theo out."

[Brian]

Kyle still finds something to complain about all off season.

[Guest]

I've stared at that post for like 5 minutes now and can't figure out who Lim is supposed to be.

[jersey cubs fan]

I've stared at that post for like 5 minutes now and can't figure out who Lim is supposed to be.

 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/12/17/cubs-officially-announce-chang-yong-lim-signing/

 

South Korean sidearming TJ surgery reliever.

 

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=61681

[SABR Gamer]

I've stared at that post for like 5 minutes now and can't figure out who Lim is supposed to be.

 

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/8744690/lim-chang-yong-says-deal-chicago-cubs

[Guest]

Man, if Scott Baker were actually a thing, this rotation could be ridiculous.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Kyle still finds something to complain about all off season.

 

Dropping the mic after one fluke-lucky WS win? Weak sauce.

[mul21]

I've stared at that post for like 5 minutes now and can't figure out who Lim is supposed to be.

 

I'm glad I'm not the only one. I thought it was some stupid Kyle-ism for something.

[mul21]

Man, I didn't realize that the run differential was down to only -7. That's got to be pretty hard to do and be 6 games under .500 this early in the season.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I've stared at that post for like 5 minutes now and can't figure out who Lim is supposed to be.

 

I'm glad I'm not the only one. I thought it was some stupid Kyle-ism for something.

 

There was a report this week that he's up to throwing live batting practice. I'd imagine that puts him on a pace to be pitching sometime this season, even though I have no idea if he'll be worth using or not.

[champaignchris]

Man, I didn't realize that the run differential was down to only -7. That's got to be pretty hard to do and be 6 games under .500 this early in the season.

 

It's pretty crazy. The Cubs' run differential is 5 runs better than the Nationals, and yet they're 4 games behind them in the standings. The Cubs' run differential is 10 better than the Padres, and they're 1.5 games behind them. 13 runs better than the Dodgers and a half game behind, 17 runs better than the Brewers and tied, and 20 runs better than the Phillies and 1.5 games behind.

[Guest]

Man, I didn't realize that the run differential was down to only -7. That's got to be pretty hard to do and be 6 games under .500 this early in the season.

 

It's pretty crazy. The Cubs' run differential is 5 runs better than the Nationals, and yet they're 4 games behind them in the standings. The Cubs' run differential is 10 better than the Padres, and they're 1.5 games behind them. 13 runs better than the Dodgers and a half game behind, 17 runs better than the Brewers and tied, and 20 runs better than the Phillies and 1.5 games behind.

That's what happens when you give up runs late in games.