Variance/Reasons for Optimism?

[Little Slide Rooter]

@MindofStan: So stinking awesome. RT @Cubs: Did you know: Heading into today's games, the #Cubs lead the National League in extra-base hits with 299.

[Clem Fandango]

And they're 25th in the majors in AVG w/RISP at .224 AVG

[Andy]

And they're 25th in the majors in AVG w/RISP at .224 AVG

29th in BABIP overall.

[Clem Fandango]

That's a lot of stink overpowering the fresh air.

[Guest]

Since losing 3 of 4 to St. Louis on June 17-20, the Cubs have played 7 series, winning four, losing one and tying two. They beat Milwaukee, Seattle, Houston and Pittsburgh, lost to Oakland and split with St. Louis and Anaheim. They also won the makeup game against the White Sox. So they took care of business against the sub-.500 teams (8-4 vs. Sea, Hou, Mil, CHW, LAA) and went 5-5 against three teams that are likely to at least make the wild card game. And out of those five losses, four were winnable games (three one-run losses and then today). The 13-8 mark in that span is third best in the NL (not that that means everything as Miami is 12-8 over the same span).

 

Starting the second half, the Cubs play 14 games against the NL West, four against Milwaukee and three against Philadelphia. Only four of those games (at Arizona) are against a team over .500, though Philly and the Dodgers are both at .500. If the Cubs continue to do what they've been doing over the last month, going 13-8 or 14-7 shouldn't be out of the question. I realize with the division the Cubs are playing in, the playoffs are pretty much out of the question, but I wouldn't mind seeing the team 2 or 4 under .500 in early August.

[neely crenshaw]

Wow that is a pretty huge assumption there. 13-8/14-7? We have played better, but we are still wildly inconsistent on offense. I'm sure your counting on Soriano continuing his hot streak and helping to carry us to that type of mark. Which is a toss up.

You also just glide over playing the west like they are terrible. We play 4 vs Arizona, and 4 vs LA and 3 vs SF. Most people would say all of those teams are better than us even with our recent play. Then we finish with Philly who is also better than us. We only have 3 games each with Colorado and Milwaukee. You would think we would do well against them but then again we are 5-6 vs them this season. So I would have to say there is a huge question about going 14-7 over that stretch.

Also we start out of the break with 10 straight on the road and play only 7 home games over this stretch (4 of those vs LA). Truly I think if we can win 10 or 11 it would be great stretch. Bad news is that the rest of the month we then play St.lou, Cincy, St lou again, Washington, LA and Philly with only 3 games at San Diego. Even without a sell off at the deadline they will be hard pressed to play .500 over these 6 weeks. Despite your assumptions, this just isn't going to be a very easy stretch coming out of the break.

 

 

On a side note, I would also bet money we don't go 13-8 or 14-7 over this stretch because we only play 20 games vs this group.

[Backtobanks]

Wow that is a pretty huge assumption there. 13-8/14-7? We have played better, but we are still wildly inconsistent on offense. I'm sure your counting on Soriano continuing his hot streak and helping to carry us to that type of mark. Which is a toss up.

You also just glide over playing the west like they are terrible. We play 4 vs Arizona, and 4 vs LA and 3 vs SF. Most people would say all of those teams are better than us even with our recent play. Then we finish with Philly who is also better than us. We only have 3 games each with Colorado and Milwaukee. You would think we would do well against them but then again we are 5-6 vs them this season. So I would have to say there is a huge question about going 14-7 over that stretch.

Also we start out of the break with 10 straight on the road and play only 7 home games over this stretch (4 of those vs LA). Truly I think if we can win 10 or 11 it would be great stretch. Bad news is that the rest of the month we then play St.lou, Cincy, St lou again, Washington, LA and Philly with only 3 games at San Diego. Even without a sell off at the deadline they will be hard pressed to play .500 over these 6 weeks. Despite your assumptions, this just isn't going to be a very easy stretch coming out of the break.

 

 

On a side note, I would also bet money we don't go 13-8 or 14-7 over this stretch because we only play 20 games vs this group.

 

Not only is Soriano's hot streak not a sure thing, but impending trades certainly will have an effect on W-L record.

[Pushfrog98]

I had a Cardinal fan (who is pretty well rounded in baseball knowledge and has a deep hatred of the Cubs) tell me that the future looks good for me (cubs fans in general). He was impressed with what he saw this past weekend from the Cubs, and said that if we had a bullpen worth anything, we'd (obviously) have a much better record. He liked what he saw from Rizzo for the most part. Said Castro was looking better as well.

 

It was interesting to hear a Cardinal fan say that, instead of the usual "Cubs have sucked, do suck and will always suck" line.

[Andy]

Well, it's nice to know that a Cardinal fan has a brain and 5 minutes to look up the stats that say that if our bullpen didn't suck, Castro was performing at 2011-12 levels and Rizzo didn't have a stupidly low BABIP (135th out of 161 qualifiers) that our team would be in better shape.

[jersey cubs fan]

I had a Cardinal fan (who is pretty well rounded in baseball knowledge and has a deep hatred of the Cubs) tell me that the future looks good for me (cubs fans in general). He was impressed with what he saw this past weekend from the Cubs, and said that if we had a bullpen worth anything, we'd (obviously) have a much better record. He liked what he saw from Rizzo for the most part. Said Castro was looking better as well.

 

It was interesting to hear a Cardinal fan say that, instead of the usual "Cubs have sucked, do suck and will always suck" line.

 

Ugghh, little pat on the head and words of encouragement from condescending Cardinals fan would not be helpful to me.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I had a Cardinal fan (who is pretty well rounded in baseball knowledge and has a deep hatred of the Cubs) tell me that the future looks good for me (cubs fans in general). He was impressed with what he saw this past weekend from the Cubs, and said that if we had a bullpen worth anything, we'd (obviously) have a much better record. He liked what he saw from Rizzo for the most part. Said Castro was looking better as well.

 

It was interesting to hear a Cardinal fan say that, instead of the usual "Cubs have sucked, do suck and will always suck" line.

 

Ugghh, little pat on the head and words of encouragement from condescending Cardinals fan would not be helpful to me.

 

It's easy to give your rival a half hearted pep talk when the rivalry's as one sided as ours had been the past few years.

[neely crenshaw]

I had a Cardinal fan (who is pretty well rounded in baseball knowledge and has a deep hatred of the Cubs) tell me that the future looks good for me (cubs fans in general). He was impressed with what he saw this past weekend from the Cubs, and said that if we had a bullpen worth anything, we'd (obviously) have a much better record. He liked what he saw from Rizzo for the most part. Said Castro was looking better as well.

 

It was interesting to hear a Cardinal fan say that, instead of the usual "Cubs have sucked, do suck and will always suck" line.

 

Ugghh, little pat on the head and words of encouragement from condescending Cardinals fan would not be helpful to me.

 

It's easy to give your rival a half hearted pep talk when the rivalry's as one sided as ours had been the past few years.

 

not too mention that they are so stinkin' loaded with young talent it's sickening.

[Pushfrog98]

I had a Cardinal fan (who is pretty well rounded in baseball knowledge and has a deep hatred of the Cubs) tell me that the future looks good for me (cubs fans in general). He was impressed with what he saw this past weekend from the Cubs, and said that if we had a bullpen worth anything, we'd (obviously) have a much better record. He liked what he saw from Rizzo for the most part. Said Castro was looking better as well.

 

It was interesting to hear a Cardinal fan say that, instead of the usual "Cubs have sucked, do suck and will always suck" line.

 

Ugghh, little pat on the head and words of encouragement from condescending Cardinals fan would not be helpful to me.

 

It's easy to give your rival a half hearted pep talk when the rivalry's as one sided as ours had been the past few years.

 

not too mention that they are so stinkin' loaded with young talent it's sickening.

It was more of a "this team isn't as bad as a lot of people think" type of thing... He wasn't trying to be rude. He said he's liked a lot of the moves the management has made.

[jersey cubs fan]

I had a Cardinal fan (who is pretty well rounded in baseball knowledge and has a deep hatred of the Cubs) tell me that the future looks good for me (cubs fans in general). He was impressed with what he saw this past weekend from the Cubs, and said that if we had a bullpen worth anything, we'd (obviously) have a much better record. He liked what he saw from Rizzo for the most part. Said Castro was looking better as well.

 

It was interesting to hear a Cardinal fan say that, instead of the usual "Cubs have sucked, do suck and will always suck" line.

 

Ugghh, little pat on the head and words of encouragement from condescending Cardinals fan would not be helpful to me.

 

It's easy to give your rival a half hearted pep talk when the rivalry's as one sided as ours had been the past few years.

 

not too mention that they are so stinkin' loaded with young talent it's sickening.

It was more of a "this team isn't as bad as a lot of people think" type of thing... He wasn't trying to be rude. He said he's liked a lot of the moves the management has made.

 

I'd imagine most Cardinals fans have been ecstatic about everything the Cubs have done the past 4 years.