Jump to content
North Side Baseball

Rizzo

Banedon

By Banedon,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

 Share
treebird All-Star

treebird

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
StarlinOnYou?

 

I have to admit, I don't get the pun. I'm sure it's embarrassingly obvious.

 

HINT: the snow glows white on the mountain tonight

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
StarlinOnYou?

 

I have to admit, I don't get the pun. I'm sure it's embarrassingly obvious.

 

HINT: the snow glows white on the mountain tonight

 

http://replygif.net/i/1331.gif

 

Searching for that just brings up some song from Frozen.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
StarlinOnYou?

 

I have to admit, I don't get the pun. I'm sure it's embarrassingly obvious.

 

treebird All-Star

treebird

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
StarlinOnYou?

 

I have to admit, I don't get the pun. I'm sure it's embarrassingly obvious.

 

http://i.imgur.com/KhtOa1D.gif

North Prep Ball

North

Verified Member
Posted
Posted (edited)

If you aren't excited about Rizzo, you need to be.

 

Back before the season started, everyone made the argument that Rizzo couldn't hit lefties. "He can't hit them well! He's making weak contact! Look at the popups!" Except that wasn't true. He was still hitting lefties well. Whether a byproduct of a shifty defense, misfortune, or somewhere in-between, Rizzo hit lefties.He had a .000 BABIP on the outside portion of the plate with a .272 ISO against them. Talk about cognitive dissonance! Not only that, but by just regressing Rizzo's numbers from last year in a back of the napkin approach, he probably should've had a .360ish wOBA. He was good even last year.

 

Okay, so in 2014, are his peripherals significantly different than 2013? Yes and no.

 

First, lets look at what is different. It's obvious; he's swinging less. But to what extent? He's swinging 7% less overall and 7% less outside the zone. Lucky 7's, he's swinging outside the zone at a 7% below league average rate. That's significant. What else is different? So far, he's driving the ball further and making much better contact (i.e., hit types). His BBIP distance is up 12 feet, he's hitting 26% line drives, and popping the ball up at half the rate so far (4%). Line drives have zero predictive ability, but nevertheless, we can use his LD% and his BA as a means to justify his performance in that sample size given his success.

 

Now, the similarities. Rizzo's contact % is marginally different. It's slightly lower this year, but statistically insignificant to be worried. His zone profile numbers (i.e., what he does with pitches on the outside, middle, and inside portion of the plate) are basically the same. The only difference, though, is that he's just swinging less. His spray angles, which was such a concern for basically 99% of baseball fans, are not much different. He's not going to a particular side of the field more than last year. It's marginally different. Here are his spray angles per hit type:

http://s8.postimg.org/5uynwj3at/Screen_Shot_2014_05_03_at_2_48_40_PM.png

 

 

Here are his spray angles per handedness:

http://s8.postimg.org/5toq341h1/Screen_Shot_2014_05_03_at_2_48_49_PM.png

 

Again, it's marginally different. But, maybe the slight difference is allowing him to have more batted balls fall for hits. Who knows. It isn't a major change, nonetheless.

 

Look, Rizzo is walking at a 16% rate, is more than likely going to be average to below average in strikeout %, is hitting the ball further, and is being so selective that I might assume he's wearing Votto's underwear. I figured he would be a productive first baseman (.360ish wOBA + defense), and I figured he would see some positive progression just from a developmental standpoint. But wow, did not expect these significant approach changes. Good for him. He may be looking like a .380+ wOBA 1st baseman with good defense. Those don't exist anymore, and the Cubs might have one for under 6 M AAV through 2019 and maybe 2021 with the options.

Edited by North
Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
YESSSSSSS =D> =D> =D> =D>
davell Chicago Cubs

davell

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I think it's pretty easy to see why Sveum is gone. Probably moreso because of Starlin, but I think Rizzo's improvement is at least a bit telling as well.
Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

North, can you post something about pitch framing? I think we'd hear CubinNY's head explode.

 

But nice breakdown; anything that makes my irrational disliking of Rizzo seem even more irrational is pretty great.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
North, can you post something about pitch framing? I think we'd hear CubinNY's head explode.

 

I wonder how many Junior Lake strikeouts have been prevented by poor pitch framing.

Banedon GOAT

Banedon

Community Moderator
Posted
  • Author
Posted
StarlinOnYou?

 

I have to admit, I don't get the pun. I'm sure it's embarrassingly obvious.

 

 

Must have missed that one.

 

Yeah...I'm with you. Video said ebaumsworld so it must be pretty old though.

imb MVP

imb

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Wasn't Rizzo destroying the world at this point last year, too?

 

EDIT: well not quite. .914 OPS on May 11 last year

Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Wasn't Rizzo destroying the world at this point last year, too?

 

EDIT: well not quite. .914 OPS on May 11 last year

 

I remember it bugging me because his hot starts was so slugging-bloated (his OBP wasn't bad, but it was kinda meh given the expectations, then that improved, but his slugging fell off) . This year seems a lot more sexily well-rounded.

weis21 Myrtle Beach Pelicans

weis21

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Wasn't Rizzo destroying the world at this point last year, too?

 

EDIT: well not quite. .914 OPS on May 11 last year

 

I remember it bugging me because his hot starts was so slugging-bloated (his OBP wasn't bad, but it was kinda meh given the expectations, then that improved, but his slugging fell off) . This year seems a lot more sexily well-rounded.

This is contrary to your tiny-faced, irrational [expletive] you've been spewing about Rizzo. You've said yourself you don't know if it is that or the SBTB gifs to credit. I'm almost positive it's not you but don't [expletive] this up just in case!

Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
No matter how awesome he is at baseball he'll still have tinyface! FOREVER.

 

http://31.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lpswgjBwtj1qeabw3o1_500.gif

Omar Chicago Cubs

Omar

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
While Chicago's talking heads gush in their collective pants over Jose Abreu, Anthony Rizzo is 3 years younger, >$5MM cheaper, and has a 1.0 WAR to Abreu's 0.8.

 

And Rizzo's OPS+ this year is 153 compared to Abreu's 149.

gscool89 First Round Pick

gscool89

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
While Chicago's talking heads gush in their collective pants over Jose Abreu, Anthony Rizzo is 3 years younger, >$5MM cheaper, and has a 1.0 WAR to Abreu's 0.8.

Give me the .421 OBP over the .319 OBP

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund
The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Cubs community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of North Side Baseball.

Become a Caretaker

  • Member Statistics

    6,796
    Total Members
    13,056
    Most Online
    MushroomTaco
    Newest Member
    MushroomTaco
    Joined
×
×
  • Create New...