Random Cubs Musings: Minor League Edition

[Sammy Sofa]

you're basically saying that he's likely to fail because he isn't hitting well enough at single A, but soler (another player at an offense-first position) had a slash line that was only marginally better, and he was a year older at the level. i agree that vogelbach is not likely to be a good major league baseball player, but your logic is lousy.

 

Soler may also be "offense first," but he's also much more regarded when it comes to being an all around valuable player, whereas Vogelbach HAS to hit the hell out of the ball to actually be valuable.

[Guest]

you're basically saying that he's likely to fail because he isn't hitting well enough at single A, but soler (another player at an offense-first position) had a slash line that was only marginally better, and he was a year older at the level. i agree that vogelbach is not likely to be a good major league baseball player, but your logic is lousy.

 

Soler may also be "offense first," but he's also much more regarded when it comes to being an all around valuable player, whereas Vogelbach HAS to hit the hell out of the ball to actually be valuable.

 

Woah, get a load of this guy droppin minor league knowledge.

[Sammy Sofa]

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/amyexpectations.gif

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I know he was talked about a little bit recently, but what does Candelario have to do to become an interesting prospect again? I had high hopes for him coming into the year, but overall, he has been really lousy. In July, though, he's got a slash line of .288/.347/.576 with a 13.9% K rate, 8.3% BB rate, 4 home runs and 7 doubles. Granted, that's only a 17-game stretch, but he is showing some signs of life recently. How long does he have to put up similar numbers to get sent back up to Daytona?

[Guest]

[expletive] off and lick my ass kyle you will have a real [expletive] opinion you awful [expletive]

 

vogelbach's not a coin toss, you moosetrack

 

Nope. Coin tosses are 50/50.

 

yeah, that's the implication i made, it's not 50/50

[Guest]

like i said, Vogelbach's wOBA is very good, even in a down year. his peripheral ratios are very good, his walk rate, excellent. professional hitter.

[Guest]

you're basically saying that he's likely to fail because he isn't hitting well enough at single A, but soler (another player at an offense-first position) had a slash line that was only marginally better, and he was a year older at the level. i agree that vogelbach is not likely to be a good major league baseball player, but your logic is lousy.

 

Soler may also be "offense first," but he's also much more regarded when it comes to being an all around valuable player, whereas Vogelbach HAS to hit the hell out of the ball to actually be valuable.

 

And Vogelbach wasn't coming off two years off.

[Rob]

I like Vogelbach and really want him to succeed, but the odds are really stacked against him.

 

There's a reason there's rarely any 1B prospects on BA's top 100 list -- you really have to mash the everloving [expletive] out of the ball to justify being a bat-first 1B. And as good as Vogelbach's plate discipline has been, he hasn't mashed the everloving [expletive] out of the ball since Boise.

[davell]

I know he was talked about a little bit recently, but what does Candelario have to do to become an interesting prospect again? I had high hopes for him coming into the year, but overall, he has been really lousy. In July, though, he's got a slash line of .288/.347/.576 with a 13.9% K rate, 8.3% BB rate, 4 home runs and 7 doubles. Granted, that's only a 17-game stretch, but he is showing some signs of life recently. How long does he have to put up similar numbers to get sent back up to Daytona?

 

There were some that thought he'd be better served repeating KC this year anyway. I'm not sure whether they move him back up of not this year. I'm fine with letting him stay put, hopefully gain confidence and play well in High A next year.

 

I think him and Villanueva especially could be used in trades this offseason though.

[Guest]

I know he was talked about a little bit recently, but what does Candelario have to do to become an interesting prospect again? I had high hopes for him coming into the year, but overall, he has been really lousy. In July, though, he's got a slash line of .288/.347/.576 with a 13.9% K rate, 8.3% BB rate, 4 home runs and 7 doubles. Granted, that's only a 17-game stretch, but he is showing some signs of life recently. How long does he have to put up similar numbers to get sent back up to Daytona?

 

I want to see an improvement over his mediocre Kane County stats last year. He posted a 256/346/396/742 line last year in KC with 88/68 K/BB at Kane County.

 

I'd leave him in KC the rest of the season, no matter what.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

yep, he's still young even for the MWL. just have to hope he makes the right adjustments.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

you're basically saying that he's likely to fail because he isn't hitting well enough at single A, but soler (another player at an offense-first position) had a slash line that was only marginally better, and he was a year older at the level. i agree that vogelbach is not likely to be a good major league baseball player, but your logic is lousy.

 

 

Lousy logic is using an individual example to counter an assertion of likelihood.

 

And it isn't even an example of what I said was unlikely. Soler hasn't hit in the majors yet.

 

Assertion: Guys who hit like Vogelbach at his age/level combo are less than 50/50 to become major-league adequate hitters.

 

Your counter: Well here's this one guy who hit like Vogelbach at that level but a year older, and now he's mashing at AA in a small sample.

 

That's not a valid logical counter.

[Guest]

you're basically saying that he's likely to fail because he isn't hitting well enough at single A, but soler (another player at an offense-first position) had a slash line that was only marginally better, and he was a year older at the level. i agree that vogelbach is not likely to be a good major league baseball player, but your logic is lousy.

 

 

Lousy logic is using an individual example to counter an assertion of likelihood.

 

And it isn't even an example of what I said was unlikely. Soler hasn't hit in the majors yet.

 

Assertion: Guys who hit like Vogelbach at his age/level combo are less than 50/50 to become major-league adequate hitters.

 

Your counter: Well here's this one guy who hit like Vogelbach at that level but a year older, and now he's mashing at AA in a small sample.

 

That's not a valid logical counter.

 

Yeah, it was really bad.

[abohnhoff]

I like Vogelbach and really want him to succeed, but the odds are really stacked against him.

 

There's a reason there's rarely any 1B prospects on BA's top 100 list -- you really have to mash the everloving [expletive] out of the ball to justify being a bat-first 1B. And as good as Vogelbach's plate discipline has been, he hasn't mashed the everloving [expletive] out of the ball since Boise.

 

Lets say they move him to LF, where he happens to play league average defense for a good amount of time...does that change anyones perception of him?

 

If he sticks at 1B past this year...would he only be auditioning for a trade there?

[rawaction]

I like Vogelbach and really want him to succeed, but the odds are really stacked against him.

 

There's a reason there's rarely any 1B prospects on BA's top 100 list -- you really have to mash the everloving [expletive] out of the ball to justify being a bat-first 1B. And as good as Vogelbach's plate discipline has been, he hasn't mashed the everloving [expletive] out of the ball since Boise.

 

Lets say they move him to LF, where he happens to play league average defense for a good amount of time...does that change anyones perception of him?

 

If he sticks at 1B past this year...would he only be auditioning for a trade there?

 

No. He still needs to hit better/for more power.

[Guest]

Lets say they move him to LF, where he happens to play league average defense for a good amount of time...does that change anyones perception of him?

 

Sure it would, but that's also tantamount to saying if moving Soler to 3B where he happens to play league average defense would improve his value. It would absolutely alter perceptions, but there's a reason that we aren't talking about a guy being league average defensively at a position higher on the defensive spectrum than he's currently playing. There's a reason that Vogelbach has zero professional games in the outfield.

[Guest]

How rare is it for a team to have three top 10 prospects?

 

Q:When was the last time a team had three top-10 prospects?

 

Matt Marsden

@morningmarsden

 

BA:Sports Illustrated may have proclaimed the Astros as the 2017 World Series champs, but if you asked me which club I’d like to bet for long-term success, it would be the Cubs.

 

With the acquisition of shortstop Addison Russell, the Cubs had the No. 2 (third baseman Kris Bryant), No. 5 (Russell) and No. 7 (shortstop Javier Baez) prospects on Baseball America’s Midseason Top 50 Prospects list. Second baseman/center fielder Arismendy Alcantara ranked 33rd.

 

Now a midseason list isn’t the same as Baseball America’s offseason Top 100 Prospects list. The draftees from the 2014 draft aren’t eligible for the midseason list but will be for the offseason list. At the same time, some players currently eligible for the midseason list will likely lose their eligibility before the offseason list arrives (including possibly Alcantara).

 

But if the three Cubs in the top 10 retain their current spots, they would be the the highest-ranked three prospects from one organization in Top 100 Prospects history.

 

The first Top 100 Prospect list was unveiled in 1990. Only once, in 2011, has a team placed three prospects in the Top 10—the Royals had Eric Hosmer (8), Mike Moustakas (9) and Wil Myers (10). Only five times has one team had two of the top five prospects.

 

What makes this very important for the Cubs is that having a top 10 prospect has generally proven to be much more valuable than having a prospect that ranks lower in the Top 100.

 

Multiple studies have looked as wins above replacement (WAR) produced by Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects over the years (this was one of the first). They have found that the production is most heavily weighted to the highest ranked prospects. The difference between the average production of a top five prospect and a top 15 prospect is similar to the difference between the No. 40 and the No. 100 prospect. So a system with two top five prospects and another in the top 10 and no other top 100 prospects is likely to produce more value than one with six prospects who rank further back in the top 100.

 

Position players have also had a higher success rate of making the jump from prospect to big league star than pitchers, which makes sense when you considered the significantly lower injury risk of position players. The Cubs’ biggest weakness as a farm system right now is that the pitching doesn’t match up to the hitting, but that also means that the Cubs’ top prospects are less risky than a similarly ranked group of pitchers.

 

What is remarkable is that the Cubs could do better when the offseason rankings roll out. No draft pick from the 2014 draft is likely to crack the top five. It’s hard to see Bryant moving up much—there’s nowhere to go when you are already ranked No. 2, but Russell and Baez are both coming off of frustrating first halves of the minor league season. Russell missed most of the first half with a hamstring injury and Baez struggled with strikeouts. Russell’s injury didn’t really affect his ranking, but Baez’s contact problems did ding him a little. If he shows an ability to recognize pitches better and a better approach in the second half, he could climb a little in the Top 100 rankings.

 

Chicago also has several other prospects who can be expected to appear in the Top 100. Outfielder Jorge Soler missed almost the entire first half with hamstring issues, and his increased musculature has led to concerns that he might continue to battle injury issues due to his decreased flexibility. But he has some of the best power in the minors, with the ability to mis-hit balls that leave the yard. Showing he can stay healthy and still move relatively well in the outfield could help him climb in the offseason rankings. Outfielder Albert Almora dropped off the midseason Top 50 because pitchers have been able to mess with his timing in the Florida State League. But a strong second half (especially if he makes an adjustment to his leg kick that spurs some of his timing issues) could boost him as well.

 

Righthander C.J. Edwards almost the entire first half with shoulder fatigue. He has the second half of the season to prove his stuff is back to its 2013 form.

 

And then there’s Cubs’ first-round pick Kyle Schwarber, one of the best college bats in the 2014 draft. While there are questions about his ultimate position, Schwarber’s hitting ability very likely will allow him to crack the Top 100 as well.

 

Some of the Cubs’ prospects will fail to live up to expectations—it always happens. They need to figure out how to move players around to work around a present overload of shortstops. And they will have to develop or acquire pitchers to go with this group of hitting prospects, but Chicago’s current farm system looks to be one of the best we’ve seen in recent years.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Putting Vogelbach in LF would be only slightly more desirable than fielding a 12-foot-diameter above-ground pool from Wal-Mart with the stipulation that any ball that lands in the pool and stays there is an out.

[Guest]

Putting Vogelbach in LF would be only slightly more desirable than fielding a 12-foot-diameter above-ground pool from Wal-Mart with the stipulation that any ball that lands in the pool and stays there is an out.

 

It's a silly exercise, but he did say that he'd actually provide average defense in LF in this scenario.

 

Why stop there, though?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

should have made him a catcher

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Putting Vogelbach in LF would be only slightly more desirable than fielding a 12-foot-diameter above-ground pool from Wal-Mart with the stipulation that any ball that lands in the pool and stays there is an out.

 

It's a silly exercise, but he did say that he'd actually provide average defense in LF in this scenario.

 

Why stop there, though?

 

If he could be a plus-5 UZR/150 defense at SS, he'd be our fourth top-10 prospect.

[ConstableRabbit]

♫Vogelbach plays great left field♫

 

 

http://38.media.tumblr.com/40eac4953e3de777d329a766b8316113/tumblr_mq1jo57hXL1rlo1q2o1_1280.jpg

 

[Guest]

Putting Vogelbach in LF would be only slightly more desirable than fielding a 12-foot-diameter above-ground pool from Wal-Mart with the stipulation that any ball that lands in the pool and stays there is an out.

 

It's a silly exercise, but he did say that he'd actually provide average defense in LF in this scenario.

 

Why stop there, though?

 

If he could be a plus-5 UZR/150 defense at SS, he'd be our fourth top-10 prospect.

 

Too many shortstops

[UMFan83]

For those who are smarter than me, looking at the big Royals prospects from a few years ago, it looks like they are all disappointing MLB players. Myers still has time before I'd label him a bust, Hosmer had a pretty good year last year, though not to the degree the fans were hoping his ceiling is and has fallen off this year. Moustakas sucks. Anyways, looking at their minor league numbers, all 3 of them were tearing it up to a degree just below what Bryant is doing this year.

 

I guess my question is, what makes this Cubs group different if anything (other than just sheer volume of high quality prospects and better coaching/development in Cubs org)?

[sneakypower]

better development, mainly

 

also, MILB career wRC+:

 

Moustakas - 125

Hosmer - 136

Myers - 147

 

Bryant - 207, lol