Random Cubs Musings: Minor League Edition

[Guest]

I wouldn't go that far with Myers, he was a good player last year and has had an injury this year that's suppressed his value(and he's still only 23).

 

To your question, being a good MLB hitter is about being able to make adjustments. All 3 of those Royals prospects were able to come up and have initial success, and when the league adjusted they haven't been able to bounce back(yet in the case of Myers). The reasons for that are numerous, but player development and the player's own capacity to understand what's happening and make adjustments are among the biggest. For as much as 'makeup' can become an anti-SABR buzzword, that's part of what's being alluded to when people talk about it. The fact that the Royals are an aimless organization does not help with the player development aspect either.

 

If you want some reassurances the Cubs three prospects will be better I can't make any guarantees, but we can look for signs. At a high level, for as much as the 'Cubs Way' gets mocked as a buzzword, this type of stuff will be the proof of it's effectiveness. Player development is about setting guys up to succeed at the MLB level, not necessarily just put up the best MiLB numbers. On an individual level, Baez's struggle/adjust/explode pattern is pretty well documented by now. He still carries the most risk of the 3 Top 10 guys(probably more than Soler and possibly Alcantara too), but while his problems are similar in scope to say, Corey Patterson, he's shown he's better equipped to overcome them at this point in his career. For Russell, we don't have as much to personally go on, but he's coming from a good organization and people paid to evaluate prospects love his game's ability to translate, so there's optimism there too. None of those worries apply to Bryant, he is a robot from the future that accidentally landed in 2013 instead of 2000. But seriously, I'm not worrying about Bryant one bit as long as he continues to OPS 1.150 as a professional.

[sneakypower]

as for Hosmer, i'll default to this tweet:

 

• Rany Jazayerli ‏@jazayerli Jun 19
  Is Eric Hosmer aware that the rules allow the batter to decline to swing at a pitch?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I guess my question is, what makes this Cubs group different if anything (other than just sheer volume of high quality prospects and better coaching/development in Cubs org)?

 

Because shut up.

 

But mostly the volume thing. And maybe we'll just be better at developing hitters, but I really don't know if that's just stupid hope or a real thing. Five years from now we'll know.

[ConstableRabbit]

as for Hosmer, i'll default to this tweet:

 

• Rany Jazayerli ‏@jazayerli Jun 19
  Is Eric Hosmer aware that the rules allow the batter to decline to swing at a pitch?

Reminder: he was given a 1B spot on the US WBC team over Rizzo.

[Guest]

I guess my question is, what makes this Cubs group different if anything (other than just sheer volume of high quality prospects and better coaching/development in Cubs org)?

 

Because shut up.

 

But mostly the volume thing. And maybe we'll just be better at developing hitters, but I really don't know if that's just stupid hope or a real thing. Five years from now we'll know.

I like to think its a combination of drafting the right behavioral profile prospect and a systems approach to development. If it's mostly blind luck, I give up.

[Guest]

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/25941/cubs-could-face-big-decision-on-schwarber

 

However, the Cubs didn't hesitate to snag Schwarber earlier than most expected, with vice president of player development and amateur scouting Jason McLeod standing by the pick, declaring that Schwarber was second on their board behind eventual No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken. While it's clear that the Cubs were higher on Schwarber than most, even they have been a little surprised by the results early on.

 

Schwarber's bat has vaulted him from low-A Boise to Kane County to high-A Daytona in just a little over a month. At 6-feet tall and 235 pounds, the kid the Hoosier faithful affectionately nicknamed "Hulk," has posted a .398/.479/.707 slash line with nine home runs and nine doubles in 33 minor league games.

 

But it's his play behind the plate that has garnered some attention of late.

 

"The early returns have been a little surprising as to how positive it's been for him (behind the plate)," said one NL scout. "(It's) hard to know what to make of that, obviously it's gonna be dictated a little bit by what's the need of the team going forward. It still might not make a ton of sense going forward, but that bat as a catcher is an unworldly profile."

 

With some interesting players at Indiana over the past few seasons, the Cubs have had eyes on Schwarber since his freshman year, something that's rare for amateur talent. His sophomore season didn't engender much confidence that he'd be sticking behind the plate and his time with Team USA was spent in the outfield or as the designated hitter. As the Cubs continued to watch the young slugger this spring, it was clear he had cleaned up his act at catcher, but he still had some inconsistencies on a week to week basis. One thing was clear, Schwarber was highly motivated to prove to people he'd be a good catcher and when the Cubs brought him into the organization. The positive reviews of his skills behind the plate, which had been more frequent during the spring, only increased.

[CubsWin]

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/25941/cubs-could-face-big-decision-on-schwarber

 

However, the Cubs didn't hesitate to snag Schwarber earlier than most expected, with vice president of player development and amateur scouting Jason McLeod standing by the pick, declaring that Schwarber was second on their board behind eventual No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken. While it's clear that the Cubs were higher on Schwarber than most, even they have been a little surprised by the results early on.

 

Schwarber's bat has vaulted him from low-A Boise to Kane County to high-A Daytona in just a little over a month. At 6-feet tall and 235 pounds, the kid the Hoosier faithful affectionately nicknamed "Hulk," has posted a .398/.479/.707 slash line with nine home runs and nine doubles in 33 minor league games.

 

But it's his play behind the plate that has garnered some attention of late.

 

"The early returns have been a little surprising as to how positive it's been for him (behind the plate)," said one NL scout. "(It's) hard to know what to make of that, obviously it's gonna be dictated a little bit by what's the need of the team going forward. It still might not make a ton of sense going forward, but that bat as a catcher is an unworldly profile."

 

With some interesting players at Indiana over the past few seasons, the Cubs have had eyes on Schwarber since his freshman year, something that's rare for amateur talent. His sophomore season didn't engender much confidence that he'd be sticking behind the plate and his time with Team USA was spent in the outfield or as the designated hitter. As the Cubs continued to watch the young slugger this spring, it was clear he had cleaned up his act at catcher, but he still had some inconsistencies on a week to week basis. One thing was clear, Schwarber was highly motivated to prove to people he'd be a good catcher and when the Cubs brought him into the organization. The positive reviews of his skills behind the plate, which had been more frequent during the spring, only increased.

There are a lot of options here. With OF assets like Soler, Almora and McKinney in the system and Alcantara already up and a potential infield of Bryant, Castro, Baez and Rizzo with Addison still coming, being able to have Schwarber play catcher reasonably well is tantalizing. I don't think he's blocked from playing in the OF by any means as some of those players may not transition well to the bigs and trades could change the landscape at any time. But I've read about his improvement at catcher in his junior year and of his strong desire to stay at the position. His work ethic matches his desire, so now all that is left is to let him try.

 

Kyle upped his CS% from 19% (8 out of 42) to 37% (16 our of 43) from his sophomore to junior year, and he's currently at 50% (9 out of 18) in the small sample as a pro. MLB league leaders in this category are usually in the mid-40s with the league average closer to 30%, maybe a tad lower. Jason Varitek's hovered around 30% for his MLB career (upper 20s as he got older) which was consistent with his minor league average of 29%. Welington Castillo's was 29% last year and lower so far this season. Varitek's defense was never his forte, his offense and leadership were. Those two qualities Schwarber seems to have in spades. Varitek was taken 14th overall out of college in 1994 before the draft slotting system was put in place, oddly about where Schwarber was predicted to go by many experts in this year's draft. Jason was 6'2", 230 lbs., almost the exact same size as Kyle (just two inches taller). His first full season was as a 27 year old in '99. From '99 to '07, he hit .268/.352/.449 averaging 26 doubles, 16 HRs, 51 walks and 95 Ks in 124 games a year.

 

Schwarber's early minor league performance is far superior to Varitek's minor league numbers, though it's not quite apples to apples as Jason went straight to AA after being drafted as a college senior (he was drafted with the 21st overall pick as a junior the year prior). Varitek hit .247/.346/.387 in 998 AA plate appearances (slightly better in his 2nd go around). It's fair to assume people expect Schwarber to put up better numbers than that when he reaches AA. Some have concerns that the wear and tear of playing catcher would hurt his offensive production. Let's say it does. Would you be okay if the Cubs got similar MLB career numbers as Varitek?

 

Of course, this completely depends on Kyle's ability to develop his receiving skills as catching is about a lot more than just controlling the running game. If Schwarber follows the unlikely timeline that Kris Bryant is on, his ETA would be early-2016. But what if Schwarber took 2+ years to work on his receiving skills (a full season at AA and another year-plus at AAA). He then came up mid-season 2017 when he was 24 (and Castillo is 30), took over at catcher at 25 and proceeded to hit .270/.350/.450 during his prime like Varitek? I'd take that, especially if the Cubs OF was adequately manned and hitting well.

 

But what say you? Is Varitek an accurate comp for Schwarber? Is his bat being in the line-up early-2016 more valuable than the advantage the Cubs would have with his production as a full-time catcher starting mid-2017? I'm not ready to write him off at catcher just yet, and I hope the Cubs give him a chance to prove himself before doing so themselves.

[Gmoney08]

For those who are smarter than me, looking at the big Royals prospects from a few years ago, it looks like they are all disappointing MLB players. Myers still has time before I'd label him a bust, Hosmer had a pretty good year last year, though not to the degree the fans were hoping his ceiling is and has fallen off this year. Moustakas sucks. Anyways, looking at their minor league numbers, all 3 of them were tearing it up to a degree just below what Bryant is doing this year.

 

I guess my question is, what makes this Cubs group different if anything (other than just sheer volume of high quality prospects and better coaching/development in Cubs org)?

 

They may not be different, although I feel Bryant has a very good chance not to be a bust, but only time will tell how are prospects pan out.

 

 

In an alternate universe maybe the Royals three top ten guys end up Allstars. Each player is an isolated case study obviously but using the mere numbers factor of top ten prospects I think you can hope for one guy ending up an Allstar, another becoming a good starter, and one of the three underwhelming.

 

 

Who knows maybe we get Allstar level or near from all three players and we essentially won the lottery, but we might strikeout too.

 

 

I'd be curious to see what percentage of BA's top ten prospects end up "allstar level or if you want to use another metric for very good," what percentage become "decent starters," and what percentage bust or "don't even become regular decent players."

 

 

If someone has time to scrub through BA's lists going back twenty to thirty years that would be awesome. I'd also be interested in seeing what the success rate is for top 10 hitters compared to top 10 pitchers.

Edited July 21, 2014 by Gmoney08

[Gmoney08]

I guess my question is, what makes this Cubs group different if anything (other than just sheer volume of high quality prospects and better coaching/development in Cubs org)?

 

Because shut up.

 

But mostly the volume thing. And maybe we'll just be better at developing hitters, but I really don't know if that's just stupid hope or a real thing. Five years from now we'll know.

I like to think its a combination of drafting the right behavioral profile prospect and a systems approach to development. If it's mostly blind luck, I give up.

 

I know they weren't necessarily all top ten at the same time but did Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, and Derek Jeter all make BA's top ten at one point?

 

I'm excluding Mariano & Pettite (although I dont even know if either was an elite prospect) because I'm only interested in hitters.

[davell]

For those who are smarter than me, looking at the big Royals prospects from a few years ago, it looks like they are all disappointing MLB players. Myers still has time before I'd label him a bust, Hosmer had a pretty good year last year, though not to the degree the fans were hoping his ceiling is and has fallen off this year. Moustakas sucks. Anyways, looking at their minor league numbers, all 3 of them were tearing it up to a degree just below what Bryant is doing this year.

 

I guess my question is, what makes this Cubs group different if anything (other than just sheer volume of high quality prospects and better coaching/development in Cubs org)?

 

They may not be different, although I feel Bryant has a very good chance not to be a bust, but only time will tell how are prospects pan out.

 

 

In an alternate universe maybe the Royals three top ten guys end up Allstars. Each player is an isolated case study obviously but using the mere numbers factor of top ten prospects I think you can hope for one guy ending up an Allstar, another becoming a good starter, and one of the three underwhelming.

 

 

Who knows maybe we get Allstar level or near from all three players and we essentially won the lottery, but we might strikeout too.

 

 

I'd be curious to see what percentage of BA's top ten prospects end up "allstar level or if you want to use another metric for very good," what percentage become "decent starters," and what percentage bust or "don't even become regular decent players."

 

 

If someone has time to scrub through BA's lists going back twenty to thirty years that would be awesome. I'd also be interested in seeing what the success rate is for top 10 hitters compared to top 10 pitchers.

 

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

[Gmoney08]

Each player is an isolated case study obviously but using the mere numbers factor of top ten prospects I think you can hope for one guy ending up an Allstar, another becoming a good starter, and one of the three underwhelming.

 

 

That article was awesome, I guess I was spot on with the above guesstimate on what is a reasonable expectation by the law of averages for our three top ten prospects.

 

 

 

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/543809/Decile_Pos_Players_Table2_medium.png

 

Graphic above seems to confirm what I was thinking ^

[TruffleShuffle]

i think one notable difference between the cubs' prospects and the guys from the royals is year-to-year performance. moustakas was ranked only #79 in BA prior to 2010 (#80 in BP) because his numbers up to that point had been pretty ordinary. .272/.337/.468/.805 in low A as a 19 year old in low A, then .250/.297/.421/.718 as a 20 year old in high A. he shot way up the lists in the 2011 offseason because he blew up in the texas league and pacific coast league, and his one-year performance was more in line with what people had expected from him when he was drafted #2 overall.

 

same with hosmer. he was top 25 going into 2009 based purely on draft position, then was thoroughly mediocre that year between low A and high A (.241/.334/.361/.695). neither BA nor BP ranked him in their top 100 going into 2010. then he blew up that year between high A and AA and was ranked around #10 in the pre 2011 lists.

 

meanwhile, bryant was ranked #8 by BA (#17 by BP, wtf) coming into this year. baez was ranked #16BA/#20BP coming into 2013, and #5BA/#4BP coming into 2014. russell was ranked #48BA/#22BP after a really strong debut year, and then #14BA/#7BP coming into this year. if they all stick in the top 10 this offseason, it will be because they've consistently been posting strong numbers at levels they're at least 2-3 years younger than the average player. to me, players like that carry significantly less risk than guys who were pretty mediocre and then shot up the rankings based on one strong year that seemed to mesh with their top 5 draft pedigree.

[Guest]

So Gleyber is kinda struggling now

[UMFan83]

So lets play the game, 6 top prospects who have are top 10 or have top 10 potential (Baez, Bryant, Soler, Russell, Schwarber, Alcantara), which 2 become All Stars, which 2 become solid starters and which two underwhelm?

 

All Stars: Bryant, Soler

Solid Regulars: Schwarber, Russell

Underwhelm: Baez, Alcantara

 

I don't want to put Alcantara there, and I definitely didnt want to put Baez there. That hurt.

[ConstableRabbit]

I feel like Baez is going to be Wily Mo Pena at the MLB level.

[Guest]

(Even though I don't think Alcantara and Schwarber really have top 10 potential...unless Schwarber is a catcher)

 

All Stars: Soler, Baez

Solid Regulars: Bryant, Russell, Schwarber as an OF

Underwhelm: Alcantara

[UMFan83]

(Even though I don't think Alcantara and Schwarber really have top 10 potential...unless Schwarber is a catcher)

 

All Stars: Soler, Baez

Solid Regulars: Bryant, Russell, Schwarber as an OF

Underwhelm: Alcantara

 

Schwarber is a stretch at this early point in his professional career, but Alcantara was 18 in the BP midseason rankings. Well regardless, I included them to make it an even 6.

[Guest]

I feel like Baez is going to be Wily Mo Pena at the MLB level.

 

these bat only comps (especially to guys in that era) are always misleading

 

wily mo pena in today's game at 2B with plus defense is a very good player...especially if you meant in his better years

[Guest]

it was so hard for me because of how sure I am about Schwarber and Soler's bats playing while they're the furthest down on the defensive spectrum of those guys...so on one hand their bats are making me feel safe about them while i'm giving baez a lot of credit for his position

 

and then i just can't put bryant in underwhelming as long as he continues to be babe ruth at every level even though he doesn't have that premium position defensive boost and also has the K issue

[ConstableRabbit]

I feel like Baez is going to be Wily Mo Pena at the MLB level.

 

these bat only comps (especially to guys in that era) are always misleading

 

wily mo pena in today's game at 2B with plus defense is a very good player...especially if you meant in his better years

Yep. Just reminds me of his game.

[Guest]

For those who are smarter than me, looking at the big Royals prospects from a few years ago, it looks like they are all disappointing MLB players. Myers still has time before I'd label him a bust, Hosmer had a pretty good year last year, though not to the degree the fans were hoping his ceiling is and has fallen off this year. Moustakas sucks. Anyways, looking at their minor league numbers, all 3 of them were tearing it up to a degree just below what Bryant is doing this year.

 

I guess my question is, what makes this Cubs group different if anything (other than just sheer volume of high quality prospects and better coaching/development in Cubs org)?

 

A big part of it for me is that those three guys you mention were HS hitters, whereas Alex Gordon was an established college hitter and has fared much better.

 

Bryant and Schwarber should be evaluated a tad different than Almora/Baez/Soler IMO solely for the fact that the have had to be developed far more by the Cubs player development team than the college guys.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

AAA contact rate

 

2014 Kris Bryant 67.4%

2013 Junior Lake 73.1%

2012 Brett Jackson 66.3%

 

http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b190/Tao_Orii_13/Expressions/nervous.gif

[Guest]

So Gleyber is kinda struggling now

 

Yep, rough couple of weeks.

[Guest]

AAA contact rate

 

2014 Kris Bryant 67.4%

2013 Junior Lake 73.1%

2012 Brett Jackson 66.3%

 

http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b190/Tao_Orii_13/Expressions/nervous.gif

 

the junior lake comparison makes me want to curl up into a ball and cry

[jersey cubs fan]

AAA contact rate

 

2014 Kris Bryant 67.4%

2013 Junior Lake 73.1%

2012 Brett Jackson 66.3%

 

http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b190/Tao_Orii_13/Expressions/nervous.gif

 

the junior lake comparison makes me want to curl up into a ball and cry

 

If Junior Lake could hit homeruns whenever he wanted and had the patience to take some walks at twice the rate he actually did, then I think he would be pretty useful.