Random Cubs Musings

[Pushfrog98]

I don't wanna come back down from this cloud

In relation to the others, how would you rate your machine head?

[RynoRules]

said bush did 9/11

 

Is that some sort of new dance?

[Clem Fandango]

I don't wanna come back down from this cloud

In relation to the others, how would you rate your machine head?

 

Reports say it's better than the rest.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I wish the trade deadline would get here so projecting 2015 lineups could start being a thing.

 

If we just went with what we already have in the organization, minus the inevitably traded Samardzija, I think we'd be looking at:

 

Lake/Alcantara/Bryant* (Sweeney, Ruggiano)

Valbuena/Castro/Baez*/Rizzo (Barney, Watkins)

Castillo (Lopez)

 

Wood/Arrieta/Jackson/Hendricks/Grimm?

Rondon/Strop/Ramirez/Vizcaino/Rivero/Wright/Russell (Rosscup?)

 

*-(up in late April after obligatory service time delay)

 

Thoughts:

 

I don't want to work through all the arbitration estimates, but that team can't cost more than about $45m. Tons of tons of room to work with.

 

There's still plenty of room to add depth up and down.

 

I just can't see them going huge on a guy like Scherzer or a major trade. They didn't spend all this time building assets and flexibility to blow it all on one big swing, especially one that might be a bit premature. Whether they have the money or not, this front office has decided that 6-year megadeals on 31-year-old pitchers or whatever are bad policy.

 

I do expect them to be active, adding veteran depth through free agency. I'd guess we get an outfielder, at least one backup infielder, a backup catcher, and two starting pitchers.

 

I really think some non-tenders are coming. Russell and Barney seem obvious possibilities.

 

They definitely need to keep working on starting pitching depth. That's probably going to be true for a long time. Epstein made it pretty much explicit the other day what we'd already guessed: They see pitchers as bad long-term investments and are willing to patch year-to-year. I hate trying to convert relievers, but you probably need to, unless you get someone in the Samardzija or Hammel deals that you don't hate having take some starts in 2015.

 

If they were serious about 2015 being a "go for it" year, they'd keep Samardzija. He just fits too beautifully into this roster at a good price. I don't think they are trying to get a top-5 pick in 2015, but I don't think they are planning to commit much to it either. Sort of a transition year where they are willing to win if some guys adjust to the big leagues quickly, but not that upset if it doesn't happen.

 

$@%#$ me Tanaka would look so sexy at the top of that rotation and significantly improve the outlook.

[Guest]

Yeah I'm really anxious to see what happens with Samardzija and Hammel.

 

Agree that Barney and Russell are likely non-tenders. Would not surprise me at all to see them dealt by the deadline to extract even minimal value from them.

 

My biggest problem with the FO has been how inactive they've been on the trade market in the offseason(with the caveat that the mid-season deals have been quite good and filled some holes that would've been addressed in the offseason otherwise). I don't need a megadeal for Stanton, but it'd be nice if they could find an OF regular that way so there's at least a bit more ceiling there.

[davell]

The question is who all gets dealt? I still think Shark stays myself.

 

I think we'll see a rather disappointing trade season honestly. Hammel, Schierholtz, Russell, our 2-4 IFA slots, and Christian Villanueva. With a Carlos Villanueva and Barney DFA.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The question is who all gets dealt?

 

Everyone not nailed down. Other than Samardzija, I don't see anyone who could be dealt that makes a difference for 2015.

[DiamondMind]

Best Team Draft

 

Chicago Cubs - Just let this sink in for a moment. I could have easily said that the Cubs made the biggest reach with their 1st pick of Kyle Schwarber at #4. I saw him ranked prior to the draft anywhere from mid-teens to mid-twenties. When I saw the Cubs took him at #4, I had to clean my glasses and clean the wax out of my ears to make sure I wasn’t mistaken on this pick. The Cubs have tons oCubs Drinkf power bats in their farm system. They don’t have room for another guy without a natural position. They need top of the rotation arms. I know the big three arms were gone as expected, but wouldn’t it have been worth taking a Top Flight injured college arm that had ace potential like a Hoffman or Fedde? What about the next best prep arm, Grant Holmes? As the draft progressed, it was clear that the Chicago brass had a plan and in hindsight, it was freakin’ brilliant. Yes, they needed high ceiling arms. So why settle for one that they would have to pay above slot, when they could select a huge power bat who they obviously like, pay him well below slot bonus, and use that money to overpay high ceiling prep arms that dropped due to signability concerns. Theo, Jed and gang, saved just under $2M in bonus cap space by selecting Schwarber, 2nd round pick Jake Stinnet (Great Value here) and slight reach in 3rd round at #78 with offensive minded catcher, Mike Zagunis out of Virginia Tech. What this did is allow them to draft AND potentially sign, three high school standouts, LHP Carson Sands, LHP Justin Steele and RHP Dylan Cease in the 4th, 5th and 6th round respectively. All three have strong college commitments, but as of this writing, Sands and Steele already came to terms with above slot bonuses. I should also mention the Cubs picked up a quality, polished college arm in RHP, James Norwood out of St. Louis University in the seventh round. So let’s review…

 

#4 Schwarber – $1.5M bonus savings, huge raw power and already raking in pro ball. He went an insane 12 hits in 20 at-bats in short season, Boise, in his first 10 days that he already got promoted to full-season A-ball. Probably ends up in LF or 1B but has the power to contribute wherever.

 

#45 Stinnett – $250K bonus savings, polished college pitcher who should see Wrigley as early as 2015.

 

#109 Sands, #139 Steele and #169 Cease – High Ceiling prep arms that should replenish the pitching talent in the Cubs farm system.

 

All in all, Chicago managed to draft 6 of the Top 100 college prospects in the first 7 rounds. Maybe not an A grade with Top 10 talent, but B+/A- as they had a plan and executed it better than any other team in the National League.

 

http://majorleaguefantasysports.com/2014/06/21/alluhring-strategy-mlb-draft-recap-nl-style/

[PackLandVA]

I love reading stuff like the above! :good:

[mul21]

Have we heard anything on Fulikawa recently? Last I remember he had come back after not pitching for a week or so and threw a shutout inning but I don't recall seeing anything since then.

[neely crenshaw]

I think Shark and Hammel are gone. Bonifacio could be dealt also if he comes back and plays well or well for him, a contender will need a utility guy.

I am not sure barney or schierholtz garner any interest without a serious uptick in performance.

Perhaps Valbuena gets some serious looks for some real value.

I would not be shocked if Castillo is moved if someone has a need.

[Sammy Sofa]

The Cubs have a need at catcher; they're not trading Castillo.

 

There's also almost zero chance they'd get the actual value Valbuena should return, so he's not going anywhere.

[Post Count Padder]

Earlier today, the Cubs added Tsuyoshi Wada to their 40-man roster and promptly optioned him to Triple-A. Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald tweets Wada could slide into the Cubs’ rotation, if a starter is dealt between now and the Trade Deadline.

[neely crenshaw]

He's had a nice year but is he the first guy called if we need a starter? I guess at 33, they need to see if he can be a major leaguer very soon but wouldn't we more likely see Villanueva back as a starter or Hendricks up?

 

I'd like to think this is a signal that they are close to a move but I don't think it would be hard to add him to the 40 man after a deal was made.

[rawaction]

He's had a nice year but is he the first guy called if we need a starter? I guess at 33, they need to see if he can be a major leaguer very soon but wouldn't we more likely see Villanueva back as a starter or Hendricks up?

 

I'd like to think this is a signal that they are close to a move but I don't think it would be hard to add him to the 40 man after a deal was made.

 

I think you said it, he's 33. Time is running short on him. Hendricks will get his shot. Villanueva has had plenty of shots and they all kinda sucked. I think he's done starting and probably won't ever be an important part of the pen the rest of the year.

[Guest]

Wada came over as a somewhat interesting guy a few years ago and immediately got hurt without ever having a chance at the majors.

 

Personally, I'd like to see what he can do.

[Guest]

Jeff Sullivan ‏@based_ball 10h

the Cubs rotation leads baseball in WAR

[Andy]

Jeff Sullivan ‏@based_ball 10h

the Cubs rotation leads baseball in WAR

If we had anything resembling a competent outfield, I wonder where we'd be.

[muntjack]

I like to think about Tanaka in there instead of Jackson. Alcantara up, snagging another OF bat sometime this month. Really think we could have been making noise right now.

 

Never could have guessed so many things would go so well, though. Rizzo, Castro, Valbuena, Hammel, Arrieta, Shark all having fantastic seasons.

[Sammy Sofa]

Has Tanaka not had a quality start yet?

[sneakypower]

Jeff Sullivan ‏@based_ball 10h

the Cubs rotation leads baseball in WAR

If we had anything resembling a competent outfield, I wonder where we'd be.

our production at the catcher position has also been league-worst

[rawaction]

Jeff Sullivan ‏@based_ball 10h

the Cubs rotation leads baseball in WAR

If we had anything resembling a competent outfield, I wonder where we'd be.

our production at the catcher position has also been league-worst

 

Yeah, but there's more than 3 good hitting OFs in baseball.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Jeff Sullivan ‏@based_ball 10h

the Cubs rotation leads baseball in WAR

If we had anything resembling a competent outfield, I wonder where we'd be.

our production at the catcher position has also been league-worst

 

Remember when we randomly cut that remarkably decent-hitting backup catcher at the beginning of spring training?

 

Sometimes it's hard to avoid the suspicion that they are trying to lose.

[KingCubsFan]

Jeff Sullivan ‏@based_ball 10h

the Cubs rotation leads baseball in WAR

If we had anything resembling a competent outfield, I wonder where we'd be.

our production at the catcher position has also been league-worst

 

Remember when we randomly cut that remarkably decent-hitting backup catcher at the beginning of spring training?

 

Sometimes it's hard to avoid the suspicion that they are trying to lose.

Yes because if there's anything that will determine the outcome of the season, it's the backup catcher.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yes because if there's anything that will determine the outcome of the season, it's the backup catcher.

 

No, but it is amazingly easy to lose lots of games just by having your worst players be as bad as possible. You can have your better players still play well but those black holes really drag everybody down.